Prediction of vegetation dynamics using NDVI time series data and LSTM

Abstract

Understanding and analyzing the changes in vegetation cover is very important in several aspects including climatic changes, water budget, ecological balance and specially to undertake necessary conservation measures. The concept of neural network has gained much significance in the analysis of vegetation dynamics using remote sensing satellite data. In the current study an attempt has been made to predict the vegetation dynamics using MODIS NDVI time series data sets and long short term memory network, an advanced technique adapted from the artificial neural network. The dataset of 861 NDVI images from January 2000 to June 2016 is used for making the time series. The data is segregated into three sets which comprises of training set (70%), validation set (20%), and testing set (10%). To check the reliability of the experiment we have finalised two different regions after extensive research for investigation. These include different terrains in the Great Nicobar Islands, one region along the coast where vegetation has severe ecological damage due to 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the other, an interior region which remained imperturbable during the tsunami. Long short term memory network, an advanced neural network is trained with these NDVI values for both the regions separately to predict the future vegetation dynamics. To measure the accuracy of the LSTM network, root mean square error is calculated. The resulting plots from both the experiments indicate that the long short-term memory neural network follows the series in addition to coinciding with the required time series. Also, an unanticipated change in the trend of the NDVI series were well adapted by the network and was able to predict the future NDVI values with good accuracy maintaining RMSE less than 0.03 without providing any supplementary data. By adopting the prescribed method in the paper, anticipation of vegetation changes can be done accurately much ahead of time and take proactive measures accordingly to safeguard and improve the vegetation in any area.