Palaeoecological data as a tool to predict possible future vegetation changes in the boreal forest zone of European Russia: a case study from the Central Forest Biosphere Reserve

Abstract

New multi-proxy records (pollen, testate amoebae, and charcoal) were applied to reconstruct the vegetation dynamics in the boreal forest area of the southern part of Valdai Hills (the Central Forest Biosphere Reserve) during the Holocene. The reconstructions of the mean annual temperature and precipitation, the climate moisture index (CMI), peatland surface moisture, and fire activity have shown that climate change has a significant impact on the boreal forests of European Russia. Temperature growth and decreased moistening during the warmest phases of the Holocene Thermal Maximum in 7.0-6.2 ka BP and 6.0-5.5 ka BP and in the relatively warm phase in 3.4-2.5 ka BP led to structural changes in plant communities, specifically an increase in the abundance of broadleaf tree species in forest stands and the suppression of Picea. The frequency of forest fires was higher in that period, and it resulted in the replacement of spruce forests by secondary stands with Betula and Pinus. Despite significant changes in the climatic parameters projected for the 21st century using even the optimistic RCP2.6 scenario, the time lag between climate changes and vegetation responses makes any catastrophic vegetation disturbances (due to natural reasons) in the area in the 21st century unlikely.