Future Energy Scenarios Research Articles

Power system benefits of simultaneous domestic transport and heating demand flexibility in Great Britain’s energy transition

The increasing share of variable renewables in power generation leads to a shortage of affordable and carbon neutral options for grid balancing. This research assesses the potential of demand flexibility in Great Britain to fill this gap using a novel linear optimisation model PyPSA-FES, designed to simulate optimistic and pessimistic transition pathways in National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios. PyPSA-FES models the future power system in Great Britain at high spatiotemporal resolution and integrates demand flexibility from both smart charging electric vehicles and thermal storage-coupled heat pumps. The model then optimises the trade-off between reinforcing the grid to align charging and heating profiles with renewable generation versus expanding dispatchable generation capacity. The results show that from 2030, under optimistic transition assumptions, domestic demand flexibility can enable an additional 20–30 TWh of renewable generation annually and reduce dispatchable generation and distribution network capacity by approximately 20 GW each, resulting in a total cost reduction of around £5bn yearly. However, our experiments suggest that half of the total system cost reduction is already achieved by only 25% of electric vehicles alone. Further, the findings indicate that once smart electric vehicle charging reaches this 25% penetration rate in households, minimal benefits are observed for implementing smart 12-hour thermal storages for heating flexibility at the national level. Additionally, smart heating benefits decrease by 90% across all metrics when only pre-heating (without thermal storages) is considered. Spatially, demand flexibility is often considered to alleviate the need for north–south transmission grid expansion. While neither confirmed nor opposed here, the results show a more nuanced dynamic where generation capacities are moved closer to demand centres, enhancing connectivity within UK sub-regions through around 1000 GWkm of additional transmission capacity.

A cradle-to-grave assessment of carbon and energy footprints of ships using synthetic fuel for net-zeros operations

PurposeAchieving net-zero emissions in the maritime sector requires adopting carbon-neutral practices in terms of shipbuilding, operation and recycling. However, research integrating life cycle and energy analysis is missing to inform decision-makers. MethodConsequently, the paper presents models combining a model-based life cycle assessment (MBLCA) and ship energy simulations to examine the footprints of a generic New Panamax Containership (DTC). Analyses were conducted to assess the energy and carbon effects of using synthetic methanol as marine fuel. ResultsThe life-cycle analysis confirms the overwhelming prevalence of operations in the total greenhouse gases emission during the ship's lifetime. The analysis highlights the potential of carbon savings if the vessel consumes methanol produced from neutral energy and renewable carbon sources. However, the magnitude of shipping fuel requirements may profoundly impact energy infrastructures while still requiring large volumes of carbon offset credits. ConclusionThe paper confirms the usefulness of integrating life-cycle analysis and energy modelling to discuss future energy scenarios. The completeness of the models also allows for future research analysing other energy solutions.

The new role of sustainable hydropower in flexible energy systems and its technical evolution through innovation and digitalization

Hydropower has played an important role in Europe in recent decades, offering a unique combination of safe, low-cost, and clean power generation. Today, it is still one of the largest renewable energy sources (RES), accounting for about 35 % of RES electricity generation. However, grid stability is threatened by the increasing amount of undispatchable RES. Flexibility and dynamics such as energy storage and rapid response are urgently needed to achieve EU policy goals. In such a context, hydropower can play a key role, not only as a provider of regulated renewable energy but also due to its ability to balance a renewable energy system in the short term and the medium/long term by pumped storage technology. All these aspects underline the new role of hydropower, which aims to strengthen grid stability and power supply resilience and to enable higher penetration of volatile RES. In this context, the aim of this paper is to demonstrate the role of hydropower at the European level as well as the needs and opportunities of modernization to fully exploit its potential. In particular, this study provides, the assessment of the today flexibility offered by hydropower to the power system at the European level by leveraging a database of information collected through the participants to the working groups of the COST Action Pen@Hydropower which includes stakeholders in the hydropower sector of 34 European countries. The study confirms the key role of hydropower in future energy scenarios with 30 % of the flexibility demand at all time scales met by hydropower. Furthermore, the paper presents a review of the digitalization solutions and innovative technologies that support the growth of a new generation of sustainable hydropower together with the modernization opportunities for existing hydropower plants. The results of this work have practical implications for stakeholders in the hydropower sector and policymakers as it provides evidence at the European scale of the role of hydropower technology in balancing the power system and the need to have supportive frameworks and adequate markets to fully exploit the European hydropower potential to achieve the energy transition goals.

An Extensive Review on Gas Hydrates: Recent Patents, Properties, Formation, Detection, Production, Importance, and Challenges

Introduction:: Gas Hydrates, or Clathrate Hydrates, have been the subject of increasing scientific and industrial attention due to their potential as an alternative energy source, their role in climate change, and their association with geohazards. The growth of new indigenous gas supply sources could impart a significant positive ripple effect on a country's economy, ecological balance, and energy landscape. This burgeoning interest has led to a surge in research and development, resulting in numerous patents related to the extraction, processing, and utilization of gas Hydrates. Objectives:: This review paper aims to provide an up-to-date, comprehensive overview of the properties, formation, detection, production, importance, challenges, and patent landscape of Gas hydrates. The integration of patented technologies into the field underscores the importance of intellectual property in shaping the future of energy, environment, and economic development. Methods:: Patented technologies in this field are contributing to making this resource more accessible and commercially viable. Moreover, the development of gas hydrates as an energy source could act as a safeguard for manufacturing jobs that are sensitive to gas prices, with proprietary technologies enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of the production process. Results:: On the environmental front, an uptick in the consumption of natural gas, known for its cleaner combustion, could herald positive change. Patented innovations in clean and efficient extraction and utilization methods for Gas Hydrates are instrumental in reducing the environmental impact. From the standpoint of energy security, a larger domestic slice of the energy pie, complemented by an extensive array of gas supply alternatives, could equip the nation to better navigate the unpredictable terrain of future energy scenarios. Conclusion:: The strategic patenting of key technologies in the exploration, production, and application of Gas Hydrates ensures competitive advantage and fosters innovation, driving forward the energy industry's evolution.

The role of flexible demand to enhance the integration of utility-scale photovoltaic plants in future energy scenarios: An Italian case study

Photovoltaic (PV) will have a prominent role in the future energy mix to achieve the energy and climate targets. However, its variability requires that its exploitation must be improved to minimize its integration costs. The objective of this research is to provide a methodology applicable to any energy system modelling tool for assessing the benefits of flexible demand as an option to better manage the PV variability and to reduce its integration costs. Two strategies are used to shift the flexible demand within three different scenarios based on the Italian energy system and its planned evolution to the year 2030. The effects of flexibility are investigated through an expansion capacity optimization of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and powerlines transport capacities in three different scenarios. Results suggest that flexible demand allows to reduce the BESS capacity of around 2 %–6 %, and powerlines capacity in the range of 2%–10 %, thus the resulting VRES avoided integration costs varies from 758 M€ to 8611 M€. However, it has negligible effects in boosting RES penetration and lowering the CO2 emissions. The estimated DSM remuneration opens up interesting possibilities for applications in the context of energy communities and electricity market aggregators.

Distribution network tariff design: Facilitate flexible resource under uncertain future energy scenarios

The uncertainty embedded in low-carbon transition pathways and future energy scenarios will reshape the way of distribution network planning and operation. Flexible solutions provided by flexible resources could help distribution network operators (DNOs) to reduce network costs and risks under uncertainties. However, the current tariff paradigm neglects such contributions, which cannot generate sufficient incentives to facilitate flexible resource development. To tackle this issue, this paper first introduces an improved price control method that caps DNOs' revenue while encouraging DNOs' sustainable investment under uncertainties. A bi-level planning model is then proposed to determine the optimal investment plan and evaluate the risk reduction effect by scheduling flexible loads. Finally, a novel pricing method is proposed to derive network tariffs for existing and potential flexible loads based on their contributions to risk reduction and demonstrated in a test system. The result shows a 24% network cost reduction given by 6% DNO risk compensation rate, and 0%–43% and 1%–22% network tariff reductions for existing and future flexible demands, respectively. This evidence proves the proposed method can incentivize DNOs to well manage risks, meanwhile promote the connection and engagement of flexible loads. Regulators and DNOs are recommended to review the existing pricing framework, enhance risk management in price regulation, and explore suitable tariff designs or business models for flexible loads to cope with future uncertainties through flexibility.

CO2 Emissions from Blade Waste Treatments under Wind Power Scenario in Japan from 2021 to 2100

Wind power generation has been introduced to reduce carbon emissions; however, recycling or recovering the waste of wind blades, which contain fibre-reinforced plastic, is difficult. Converting the recovered materials for secondary use is also difficult owing to the decreased strength and low material value. Many countries, including Japan, have not considered the future energy and CO2 emission scenarios, particularly CO2 emissions from wind blade waste. Based on these scenarios, Japan has planned to introduce large amounts of onshore/offshore wind power generation through 2050. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate quantitatively the total amount of waste and the global warming potential (GWP) from multiple blade waste treatment processes. Based on the average lifetime of blades (20–25 years), we found that the GWP of wind blade waste treatment in Japan may reach a maximum of 197.3–232.4 MtCO2eq by 2060–2065. Based on this lifetime, the wind blade treatment in 2050 accounted for 63.9–80.1% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. We also showed that the rise in CO2 emissions from the wind blade wastes would make up 82.5–93.6% of the potential reduction in the GWP, which is achievable by shifting from thermal to wind power generation.

Investigating the Role of Byproduct Oxygen in UK-Based Future Scenario Models for Green Hydrogen Electrolysis

Water electrolysis for hydrogen production with renewable electricity is regularly studied as an option for decarbonised future energy scenarios. The inclusion of byproduct electrolytic oxygen capture and sale is of interest for parallel decarbonisation efforts elsewhere in the industry and could contribute to reducing green hydrogen costs. A deterministic hydrogen electrolysis system model is constructed to compare oxygen inclusion/exclusion scenarios. This uses wind and solar-PV electricity generation timeseries, a power-dependent electrolysis model to determine the energy efficiency of gas yield, and power allocation for gas post-processing energy within each hourly timestep. This maintains a fully renewable (and therefore low/zero carbon) electricity source for electrolysis and gas post-processing. The model is validated (excluding oxygen) against an existing low-cost GW-scale solar-hydrogen production scenario and an existing hydrogen production costs study with offshore wind generation at the multi-MW scale. For both comparisons, oxygen inclusion is then evaluated to demonstrate both the benefits and drawbacks of capture and utilisation, for different scenario conditions, and high parameter sensitivity can be seen regarding the price of renewable electricity. This work subsequently proposes that the option for the potential utilisation of byproduct oxygen should be included in future research to exemplify otherwise missed benefits.

Enabling industrial energy efficiency and flexibility with dynamic simulation-based optimization of manufacturing operations

In the face of substantial environmental impact, energy-intensive industries are compelled to deal with a spectrum of future energy scenarios, including the adoption of electrification and hydrogen use. In addition, these sectors are under pressure to enhance energy efficiency and adaptability to reduce costs. The integrated planning and control of production and energy system components is challenging due to the complexity and lack of available methods, though. This paper addresses this gap, by introducing a simulation-based method that optimizes production and energy system components. The planning method is based on a multicriteria meta-heuristic with an integrated simulation of production and energy system behavior. It evauates different future energy scenarios with electrification and hydrogen use including variable energy markets and storage systems. The method is applied and validated in a case study in an energy-intensive steel production. The results show the significant benefits of the dynamic planning and optimization for various variables in two different heat-treatment process technologies.

Towards Sustainable Integration: Techno-Economic Analysis and Future Perspectives of Co-Located Wind and Hydrogen Energy Systems

Abstract This article presents a comprehensive study that focuses on the techno-economic analysis of co-located wind and hydrogen energy integration within an integrated energy system (IES). The research investigates four distinct cases, each exploring various configurations of wind farms, electrolyzers, batteries, hydrogen storage tanks, and fuel cells. To obtain optimal results, the study employs a sophisticated mathematical optimization model formulated as a mixed-integer linear program. This model helps determine the most suitable component sizes and hourly energy scheduling patterns. The research utilizes historical meteorological data and wholesale market prices from diverse regions as inputs, enhancing the study’s applicability and relevance across different geographical locations. Moreover, sensitivity analyses are conducted to assess the impact of hydrogen prices, regional wind profiles, and potential future fluctuations in component prices. These analyses provide valuable insights into the robustness and flexibility of the proposed IES configurations under varying market conditions and uncertainties. The findings reveal cost-effective system configurations, strategic component selections, and implications of future energy scenarios. Specifically comparing to configurations that only have wind and battery combinations, we find that incorporating an electrolyzer results in a 7% reduction in the total cost of the IES, and utilizing hydrogen as the storage medium for fuel cells leads to a 26% cost reduction. Additionally, the IES with hybrid hydrogen and battery energy storage achieves even higher and stable power output. This research facilitates decision-making, risk mitigation, and optimized investment strategies, fostering sustainable planning for a resilient and environmentally friendly energy future.

Grid-scale demand-side flexibility services using commercial buildings lighting loads

Flexibility Services can be used to account for the high variability in electricity generation due to increasing renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy. As buildings become smarter with the adoption of new technologies for sensing and control, more integration between buildings and the electric grid is possible. Building loads such as air conditioning and lighting in commercial buildings have the potential to provide these Flexibility Services. In commercial buildings, lighting accounts for approximately 10–15 % of the load at time. Past studies have shown that lighting can be dimmed by 15–20 % without causing visual discomfort to the occupants. Overall, this study aims to estimate the instantaneous demand reduction that can be provided due to lighting loads using prototypical building models aggregated across electric grid nodes in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region in the United States. Findings suggest, in a future case with 100 % LED fixtures and 30 % technology penetration for smart lighting controls, lighting loads can provide around 250 to 475 MW (0.21 to 0.39 % of MISO’s peak load) of Flexibility Services in the MISO region. The results can be used as inputs for grid levels models to predict future generation, transmission, and distribution investments for future high renewable energy scenarios.

Data-driven multi-objective optimization for electric vehicle charging infrastructure

This paper presents a data-driven methodology combining simulation and multi-objective optimization to efficiently implement transportation policy commitments, using as a case study the electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure in Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom. The methodology leverages a baseline simulation model developed by our industry partner, Arup Group Limited, to estimate EV demand and quantities from 2020 to 2050. Four future energy scenarios are considered, and a multi-objective optimization approach is employed to determine the optimal types, locations, and quantities of charging points, along with the corresponding total capital and operational expenditures and charging point operating hours. Quantitatively, the variations of the portions of different types of charging points for the four scenarios are relatively small and within 3% range of the total number of charging points. The optimal solutions put priority on the slower charging points, with faster charging points having smaller portions each around 10%-13%.

Scenario Evaluation of Reversible Solid Oxide Cells Integrated with Local Renewable Energy Sources: Assessment of Different Coupling Applications

Solid Oxide Cells (SOCs) are a technology that is currently considered more and more crucial in the present and future world energy scenarios, mainly thanks to their high efficiencies and flexibility of use. One of their most interesting characteristics is their reversibility: such systems are able to work as fuel cells (thus generate heat and power from a wide variety of fuels) or electrolysers (producing hydrogen or even synthetic fuel, when in co-electrolysis mode) in a single unitized system. In addition, thanks to the high operating temperature, SOCs are able to reach higher efficiencies than conventional electrolysers or fuel cells.Moreover, as mentioned above, the possibility to operate SOCs devices in co-electrolysis mode makes them suitable in possible integration/retrofitting solutions with industrial applications, especially if power is generated by Renewable Energy Sources (RES).This is why SOCs could play a decisive role in decarbonizing the stationary CHP (Combined Heat and Power), residential and industrial sectors, considering their wide power range (from less than 1 kWe up to the order of MWe) and their potential in CO2 capture (production of synthetic fuels in co-electrolysis mode). At the same time, they can provide a higher flexibility of the grid in terms of energy storage, oftentimes an issue because of the fluctuation of the power produced, caused by the nature of RES themselves.This work is focused on the analysis of the integration of reversible SOCs in several end-use application scenarios, all in presence of RES systems.Firstly, a thorough research on RES power generation in Italy has been carried out, whose main objective was to quantify the amount of power produced by RES, such as photovoltaics (PV), Wind, Biogas and Hydropower, with respect to the total energy production, in order to evaluate the penetration of RES in each of the zones Italy has been divided into. The research also includes a temporal distribution analysis of power produced by RES.Secondly, the syngas and hydrogen demands all over the Italian territory were assessed.A performance parameter is assigned to every power production source and to the demand for gas (syngas or hydrogen). Such parameter (a number on a scale from 0 to 10) is an indicator of the production from a specific source (or the demand for a specific gas) in a given area (0 representing no production/demand, 10 representing extremely high production/demand).A matrix for each investigated area has been built. It reports the product of the performance parameter of every RES (reported on the columns of the matrix) and the performance parameter assigned to every gas (on the rows of the matrix). The aim of this approach is to evaluate the most suitable macro-scenarios where SOCs can play a major role.The results of the work were an in-depth analysis of the possible case studies, for which the implementation of reversible SOCs at different scales (order of kW, order of hundreds of kW, order of MW) could be convenient. Consequently, the applications identified are those in which both electrical power and syngas/hydrogen supply are demanded.A preliminary high-level simulation of the reversible SOC systems in these scenarios were carried out: their use as electrolysers or fuel cells is handled in order to respectively avoid RES curtailment (when RES production exceeds demand), and increase the efficiency of the system (when RES production cannot match demand).Applications with high level of thermal integration have been favoured, taking into account CHP solutions. Special attention was dedicated to areas with higher RES curtailment rate, in order to minimize the waste of clean energy production. Figure 1

Economic and Environmental Competitiveness of Ethane-Based Technologies for Vinyl Chloride Synthesis.

The synthesis of the vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), employed to manufacture poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) plastic, primarily relies on oil-derived ethylene, resulting in high costs and carbon footprint. Natural gas-derived ethane in VCM synthesis has long been considered a transformative feedstock to lower emissions and expenses. In this work, we evaluate the environmental potential and economics of recently developed catalytic ethane chlorination technologies for VCM synthesis. We consider the ethylene-based business-as-usual (BAU) route and two different ethane-based processes evaluated at their current development level and their full potential, i.e., ideal conversion and selectivity. All routes are assessed under two temporal scenarios: present (2020) and prospective (2050). Combining process simulation and life cycle assessment (LCA), we find that catalytic ethane chlorination technologies can lower the production cost by 32% at their current development state and by 56% when considering their full potential. Though environmentally disadvantageous in the 2020 scenario, they emerge as more sustainable alternatives to the BAU in the 2050 scenario, reducing the carbon footprint of VCM synthesis by up to 26% at their current state and up to 58% at their full potential. Going beyond VCM synthesis, our results highlight prospective LCA as a powerful tool for assessing the true environmental implications of emerging technologies under more decarbonized future energy scenarios.

Modelling and Analysis of Future Energy Scenarios on the Sustainability Axis

This study aims to propose a sustainable electricity mix option for Turkey by 2030. First, the electricity demand of Turkey by 2030 is estimated by employing a method that comprises MLP ANN and GPRM. Population, GDP, imports, exports, and IPI are considered independent variables used in the ANN model. The future values of each of the independent variables are predicted by a GPRM model based on a univariate time series approach. ANN model is then employed to predict electricity demand based on the future values of independent variables. Secondly, four diverse electricity mix scenarios are developed considering the forecasted electricity demand. The sustainability evaluation of the scenarios is performed using TOPSIS method considering ten different criteria classified into environmental, economic, technical, and social categories. Furthermore, four diverse weight sets are determined for the given categories, and also a sensitivity analysis is carried out. Turkey’s electricity demand is found out as ≈ 384,569 GWh according to the prediction for the year 2030. The Scenario-(C), which has a comparatively higher percent of nuclear energy generation, is determined as the most sustainable electricity mix scenario according to evaluation with the TOPSIS method.

Comprehensive investigation on the geothermal energy sector in México

Factors such as fossilisation, diversification of energy resources, sustainable development, and energy security are attracting global attention for the development and expansion of renewable energy sources. Environmental issues arising from fossil fuel consumption are being addressed, but concerns remain about the renewability and availability of new energy sources. Mexico is one of the ten countries in the exploitation of geothermal energy, with a history of approximately five decades. This study examines Mexico's five major geothermal fields: Cerro Prieto, Los Azufres, Los Humeros, Las Tres Vírgenes, and Domo San Pedro. Currently, Mexico is working with international geothermal companies. However, there are more power plants and substantial cooperation to obtain this energy for industry and homes. This study is focused on the potential of geothermal exploitation in Mexico and its position worldwide after the introduction of geothermal energy in Mexico. Next, five geothermal fields are introduced in Mexico, and the potential and capacities of each are discussed. Finally, the future energy scenarios in Mexico are reviewed, with an emphasis on geothermal energy.

Electric vehicles and the energy generation mix in the UK: 2020–2050

This study estimates CO2e emissions from road transport in the UK under the Future Energy Scenarios from the National Grid ESO through to 2050, including emissions from electricity generation for EVs and tailpipe emissions. In addition, it estimates emissions under a combination of the UK current electricity generation mix with the increase in EVs and the reduction in fossil fuel vehicles assumed under the different scenarios. The main finding is that road transport electrification can save CO2e emissions through 2050 even assuming no further decarbonisation of the power sector. All the Future Energy Scenarios with and without decarbonisation of the power sector and with and without bioenergy with carbon capture and storage see emissions decline. There are, however, important differences in the extent to which emissions decline and the only scenarios that achieve negative emissions from road transport are the scenarios that incorporate bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. This provides an opportunity for the UK government to not just reduce emissions from road transport, but to achieve net zero in road transport, and indeed, to yield negative emissions and compensate for other sectors where emissions are not possible to reduce. Some policy recommendations are also provided.

Digital twin based reinforcement learning for extracting network structures and load patterns in planning and operation of distribution systems

Low voltage distribution networks deliver power to the last mile of the network, but are often legacy assets from a time when low carbon technologies, e.g., electrified heat, storage, and electric vehicles, were not envisaged. Furthermore, exploiting emerging data from distribution networks to provide decision support for adapting planning and operational strategies with system transitions presents a challenge. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a novel application of digital twins based reinforcement learning to improve decision making by a distribution system operator, with key metrics of predictability, responsiveness, interoperability, and automation. The power system states, i.e., network configurations, technological combinations, and load patterns, are captured via a convolutional neural network, chosen for its pattern recognition capability with high-dimensional inputs. The convolutional neural networks are iteratively trained through the fitted Q-iteration algorithm, as a batch mode reinforcement learning, to adapt the planning and operational decisions with the dynamic system transitions. Case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by reducing 50% of the investment cost when the system transitions towards the winter and maintaining the power loss and loss of load within 5% compared to the benchmark optimisation. Doubled power consumption was observed in winter under future energy scenarios due to the electrification of heat. The trained model can accurately adapt optimal decisions according to the system changes while reducing the computational time of solving optimisation problems, for a range of scales of distribution systems, demonstrating its potential for scalable deployment by a system operator.

Futures for Findhorn: Exploring challenges for achieving net zero in an ecological intentional community

This research uses a participatory method to develop exploratory future energy scenarios for an ecological intentional community in the north of Scotland, Findhorn Ecovillage. These futures serve several purposes: They can be used as decision support by the community, provide insights about the challenges for further decarbonisation in places where the environmental impact from activities has already been reduced, and insights into the implications for meeting the net zero emissions target for the UK on a community spatial scale. The energy futures for Findhorn Ecovillage were based on discussions at a facilitated online stakeholder workshop. The participants were led through a series of steps to create a 2 × 2 matrix based on democratically selected drivers for change, and in developing a pathway through time for each of the resulting four scenarios. The exploratory futures method adopted also enabled participants to consider interactions with wider society including central and devolved government, the wider economy, and the environment. The findings highlight that while intentional communities are to some degree withdrawn from the mainstream, they are embedded within and depend upon the wider society and economy. This could inhibit or accelerate further decarbonisation and could present a risk of undermining the community’s lifestyle principles.

Carbon assessment of building shell options for eco self-build community housing through the integration of building energy modelling and life cycle analysis tools

To achieve the UK's net-zero carbon transition by 2050, new homes need to be designed to high energy efficiency standards and minimise life cycle carbon emissions. This study develops a method that integrates building energy modelling (BEM) and life cycle assessment (LCA) tools, IES Virtual Environment (IES VE) and One Click LCA, to conduct a life cycle assessment of the operational and embodied carbon impacts of a typical terraced building shell in an eco self-build community housing (ESBC) project, using Water Lilies as a case study. It evaluates and compares the 60-year life cycle carbon impacts of six design options that apply different insulation materials to the case study building shell. The results are based on grid-connected Future Energy Scenarios (FES) that have different carbon intensities predicted over time and the microgrid-connected Water Lilies Community Energy (WLCE) scenario that is operationally net-zero carbon. Depending on the FES, embodied carbon accounted between 59 and 80% of total emissions compared to 20–41% from operational carbon across design options. The results show that operational carbon is highly sensitive to the percentage of renewables in the energy mix of the grid, which is difficult to predict, and can significantly influence the design choice. As such, future researchers should account for predicted changes to the carbon intensity of the grid by applying a similar method to that proposed. Overall, the integration of IES VE and One Click LCA provided a more streamlined life cycle assessment to help inform early design decisions by enabling energy consumption simulation in BEM to assess operational carbon emissions and the automated transfer of building materials from the BEM model to the LCA tool to assess embodied carbon emissions. The limitations included the unavailability of material-specific data in early design stage plans, the inability to automatically transfer the timber frame structure from IES VE to One Click LCA, and the uncertainty of future energy trends.