Electric vehicles and the energy generation mix in the UK: 2020–2050

Abstract

This study estimates CO2e emissions from road transport in the UK under the Future Energy Scenarios from the National Grid ESO through to 2050, including emissions from electricity generation for EVs and tailpipe emissions. In addition, it estimates emissions under a combination of the UK current electricity generation mix with the increase in EVs and the reduction in fossil fuel vehicles assumed under the different scenarios. The main finding is that road transport electrification can save CO2e emissions through 2050 even assuming no further decarbonisation of the power sector. All the Future Energy Scenarios with and without decarbonisation of the power sector and with and without bioenergy with carbon capture and storage see emissions decline. There are, however, important differences in the extent to which emissions decline and the only scenarios that achieve negative emissions from road transport are the scenarios that incorporate bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. This provides an opportunity for the UK government to not just reduce emissions from road transport, but to achieve net zero in road transport, and indeed, to yield negative emissions and compensate for other sectors where emissions are not possible to reduce. Some policy recommendations are also provided.