Modelling and Analysis of Future Energy Scenarios on the Sustainability Axis

Abstract

This study aims to propose a sustainable electricity mix option for Turkey by 2030. First, the electricity demand of Turkey by 2030 is estimated by employing a method that comprises MLP ANN and GPRM. Population, GDP, imports, exports, and IPI are considered independent variables used in the ANN model. The future values of each of the independent variables are predicted by a GPRM model based on a univariate time series approach. ANN model is then employed to predict electricity demand based on the future values of independent variables. Secondly, four diverse electricity mix scenarios are developed considering the forecasted electricity demand. The sustainability evaluation of the scenarios is performed using TOPSIS method considering ten different criteria classified into environmental, economic, technical, and social categories. Furthermore, four diverse weight sets are determined for the given categories, and also a sensitivity analysis is carried out. Turkey’s electricity demand is found out as ≈ 384,569 GWh according to the prediction for the year 2030. The Scenario-(C), which has a comparatively higher percent of nuclear energy generation, is determined as the most sustainable electricity mix scenario according to evaluation with the TOPSIS method.