Future Energy Scenarios Research Articles

Climate action at the neighbourhood scale: Comparing municipal future scenarios

Municipalities face the direct impact of climate change events, but many are challenged to assess the potential outcomes of future climate action policies. It is essential for local municipalities to be able to evaluate cross-sector and cross-scale policy interventions, but many lack the expertise and resources for wholistic forecasting. This paper used a hybrid inter-scalar and interdisciplinary modeling approach to evaluate, compare, visualize, and reveal the performance of climate actions at building and neighbourhood scales of future ‘what-if’ scenarios for three neighbourhood urban form types (dispersed, corridor, nodal) in three cities in British Columbia, Canada (Vancouver, Victoria, Prince George). Results found that increases in population density combined with strict building standards and retrofitting older buildings decreased per person emissions per year by up to 84% by 2050. Within the neighbourhood-scale areas, building form and location had less impact. Population density and frequency of transit service were most important for mobility mode shifts. Concentrating density at transit nodes or along commercial corridors improved the percentages of residents within a five-minute walk of those services, but proximity to greenspaces showed mixed results. <em><strong>Policy relevance</strong></em> Municipal climate action policies cross sectors and scales. This analysis of future urban form and energy scenarios at neighbourhood scales reveals livability and greenhouse gas (GHG) outcomes. It provides evidence that compact neighbourhood form coupled with stringent building codes reduces GHG emissions. (1) Concentrating density at transit nodes or along commercial corridors improved the percentages of residents within a five-minute walk of those services, but proximity to greenspaces showed mixed results. (2) Within neighbourhood-scale areas urban form (building form and location) had less influence on shifting mobility modes than did overall population density and transit frequency. (3) British Columbia’s net-zero-ready building code, a performance-based code, resulted in notable energy-use reductions and related emissions reductions associated with the new building stock. (4) Retrofitting the existing building stock resulted in notable emissions reductions in the three neighbourhoods; however, for cities with growing high land value, the potential for sale and redevelopment is a disincentive to retrofitting.

The Impacts of Energy Efficiency Modelling in Policy Making

Bottom-up energy system models have been used extensively to analyse future energy scenarios, addressing a wide variety of policy questions. This paper focuses on energy efficiency, a key energy, climate, and economic policy area where several examples of energy system model applications can be found in the literature. This paper analyses how different studies implement energy efficiency scenarios in energy system models and explains how the approach taken can affect the results significantly, potentially affecting policy decisions. This analysis contributes to understanding how this type of modelling framework considers energy efficiency policy issues and the extent of insight provided, or not, on different dimensions. With the aim of identifying ‘best practice’ in using energy system models to inform effective analysis of energy efficiency policy, the UK TIMES energy system model is used to implement five different energy efficiency scenarios for residential heating following different modelling approaches and replicating scenarios available in the literature. The study concludes that energy efficiency scenarios, implementing the same target, produce significantly different results in terms of technology mix, energy use, emissions and costs. Additionally, the outcomes show that there is no overall best energy efficiency scenario, as each impacts on different policy targets, which could come into conflict with each other.

Prospective environmental impact assessment and simulation applied to an emerging biowaste-based energy technology in Europe

The energy sector of the European Union (EU) is expected to progress fast towards a fully-fledged dependency on renewable sources. In such a goal-driven approach, a prospective assessment framework is designed to simulate the environmental consequences engendered by the gradual penetration of a novel biowaste-based energy technology in the EU energy production market. This is done by building a dynamic input-output model reflecting the implementation of the technology over time, following future energy scenarios and hypothetical targets for the EU (number of plants operating in 2030 and 2050). Total impacts, calculated for global warming, photochemical oxidation, acidification, eutrophication and human toxicity are calculated for these scenarios, and for a counterfactual scenario, represented by the same economic system operating without opting for such novel technology. The output of the simulation shows that the technology could bring carbon savings of 220–250 Mt CO2eq up to 2050 and significant changes in the economy structure such as a reduction of fossil phosphorus production and corresponding generation of revenues from phosphorus recovery in the order of 100–150 billion €. In a more general fashion and beside the case study, the factors affecting the model output, sources of uncertainty and assumptions are presented in order to appraise scope, applicability and limitations of the proposed assessment framework and to prepare its use in decision making.

Metal–Nitrogen–Carbon Catalysts by Dynamic Template Removal for Highly Efficient and Selective Electroreduction of CO2

The renewable electroreduction of CO2 to CO is a key component of future clean energy scenarios. These scenarios allow for the recycling of carbon emissions into value-added chemicals which achieves the joint goal of reducing greenhouse gase(s) while producing valuable chemical product(s). A catalyst which has a high activity and selectivity for the electroreduction of CO2 to CO is highly desired for these applications. Nonprecious metal catalysts (non-PGM) and specifically metal–nitrogen–carbon (M–N–C) catalysts are prime cathode candidates as they are selective for CO and H2 formation with only trace amounts of other products such as CH4. The traditional method of production of atomically dispersed M–N–C proceeds either through a sacrificial poymer approach or through hard-templating the catalyst with silica. The other is through the direct pyrolysis of nonabundant metal macrocycles such as MOF-based precursors via a soft-templating approach. These syntheses have substantial industrial limitations as they require harsh acid or basic solvents for postpyrolytic removal of the support or they require rare chemical precursors. The method herein uses mechanochemical mixing of a fluorine-containing polymer with common pyrolytic precursors for the in situ removal of the template during the first pyrolysis. Further ball-milling and post-treatment in ammonia atmosphere yield a highly selective catalyst for CO2 reduction. The role of the metal center in these M–N–C catalysts in promoting CO2 reduction is explored (M = Fe, Ni, Co, Mn) vs the performance of metal-free N–C. A mechanistic pathway for CO2 reduction on the various M–N–C catalysts is suggested. The champion catalyst in terms of overall selectivity/activity (Ni–N–C) boasts a 98.9 ± 0.2% faradaic efficiency for CO formation (FEco) at −1.1 V vs RHE and an unmatched selectivity for CO2 reduction (FEco > 85%) even at low overpotential (E = −0.3 V vs RHE) compared to traditional Ni–N–C. The catalysts synthesized here present a promising class of electrocatalysts which may be explored for a range of electrocatalytic applications.

A Novel Electrode for Value‐Generating Anode Reactions in Water Electrolyzers at Industrial Current Densities

AbstractHydrogen generated in electrolyzers is discussed as a key element in future energy scenarios, but oxygen evolution as the standard anode reaction is a complex multi‐step reaction requiring a high overpotential. At the same time,it does not add value‐the oxygen is typically released into the atmosphere. Alternative anode reactions which can proceed at similar current densities as the hydrogen evolution are, therefore, of highest interest. We have discovered a high‐performance electrode based on earth‐abundant elements synthesized in the presence of H2O2, which is able to sustain current densities of close to 1 A cm−2 for the oxidation of many organic molecules, which are partly needed at high production volumes. Such anode reactions could generate additional revenue streams, which help to solve one of the most important problems in the transition to renewable energy systems, i.e. the cost of hydrogen electrolysis.

A Novel Electrode for Value-Generating Anode Reactions in Water Electrolyzers at Industrial Current Densities.

Hydrogen generated in electrolyzers is discussed as a key element in future energy scenarios, but oxygen evolution as the standard anode reaction is a complex multi-step reaction requiring a high overpotential. At the same time,it does not add value-the oxygen is typically released into the atmosphere. Alternative anode reactions which can proceed at similar current densities as the hydrogen evolution are, therefore, of highest interest. We have discovered a high-performance electrode based on earth-abundant elements synthesized in the presence of H2 O2 , which is able to sustain current densities of close to 1 A cm-2 for the oxidation of many organic molecules, which are partly needed at high production volumes. Such anode reactions could generate additional revenue streams, which help to solve one of the most important problems in the transition to renewable energy systems, i.e. the cost of hydrogen electrolysis.

ENERGY FUTURES AND CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION: A QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT IN THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS PERSPECTIVE

The 2030 Agenda – with its seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and the Paris Agreement represent a turning point for Sustainable Development. For the first time, the world’s leaders have developed an integrated sustainable agenda and ratified a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, recognizing that the current development model is not sustainable from an economic, social and environmental standpoint. Sustainable energy, being the driver of social and economic growth, will play a crucial role in the achievement of the 2030 Agenda objectives and for closing the gap to the mitigation targets of 2°C and 1.5°C defined by the Paris Agreement.This paper aims at showing that SDG 7 – the SDG dedicated to energy – can be considered as an enabling factor for the implementation of the other SDGs, and in particular of SDG 13, the goal on climate action. This relation is bidirectional, meaning that mitigation of climate change is positively driven by the deployment of sustainable energy services, and that the integration of climate change mitigation strategies into national policies positively contributes to the deployment of sustainable energy solutions. The paper also shows that future energy scenarios, compatible with the above-mentioned ambitious mitigation targets, are in line with the SDG 7 Targets that can benefit from the strong technology innovation that those scenarios will require. The digitalization of the electricity sector through smart meters for demand side management and smart grids for distributed renewable generation is one example of the role of technology innovation toward SDG 7.

Plausible Scenarios for Thai Sustainable Energy in 2050: Cloud and Clear

This study’s goal is to illustrate future energy scenarios for Thailand in the year 2050: Cloud and Clear scenarios. Cloud depicts a scenario of an economy driven mainly by value-based industrial manufacturing. Security of energy supply is prioritized, with an emphasis on environment concerns and GHG emissions. Energy industry is dominated by incumbent businesses, which play important role in energy transition. Clean energy is gaining more market share, but fossil fuels remain the primary source of energy. Clear reflects the new economy driven by new S-curve businesses. Energy sustainability became first priority for national policy. Diverse options for end-users are available for self-management. New players can be competitor in Thai energy industry. Clean energy became one of the main energy sources. The quantitative results show that owing to the pandemic’s impact, short-term energy demand and GHG emissions decrease dramatically, then rebound and split into two scenarios: uptrend for Cloud and downtrend for Clear. Pathway to sustainable energy is revealed in Clear scenario. Peak energy demand can be reached within 2030. The peak of GHG emissions has already passed and will be approaching to the level of 2DC pathway. Therefore, more actions are required to achieve the ambitious goal of 1.5C.

A uber‐airbnb mixture flexibility peer‐to‐peer market in integrated TSO‐DSO architecture

With the launch of global decarbonisation, the infiltration of low-carbon distributed energy resources (DERs) is increasing. The future transaction platforms for those flexibilities are considered to be peer-to-peer (P2P) ones conforming to resources' characteristics of small-scale and independence. This research reviews current flexibility-related topics and proposes one P2P flexibility market filling in the gaps. The contribution of this research includes: (1) it constructs a flexibility market combining pricing strategy and matching strategy of the mature and successful real-world P2P business models, accommodating the penetration of DERs. The proposed automatic trading market could mobilise the enthusiasm of market participants and satisfy individuals' needs for a convenient market. (2) it proposes a dynamic pricing strategy where prices fluctuate with the features and portfolios of market participants. More adequate market signals are provided with the promotion of market equity. (3) it discusses the segmentation tendency of the flexibility market when considering energy products as pure commodities following the disintegration from the transmission system operator to the distribution system operator. The feasibility of the proposed market under future energy scenarios is thus explored.

An Energy Cost Assessment of Future Energy Scenarios: A Case Study on San Pietro Island

The need for a clean and affordable energy supply is a major challenge of the current century. The tough shift toward a sustainable energy mix becomes even more problematic when facing realities that lack infrastructures and financing, such as small islands. Energy modeling and planning is crucial at this early stage of the ecological transition. For this reason, this article aims to improve an established long-run energy model framework, known as “OSeMOSYS,” with an add-on tool able to estimate different types of Levelized Cost Of Electricity (LCOE): a real and theoretical LCOE of each technology and a real and theoretical system LCOE. This tool fills a gap in most modeling frameworks characterized by a lack of information when evaluating energy costs and aims at guiding policymakers to the most appropriate solution. The model is then used to predict future energy scenarios for the island of San Pietro, in Sardinia, which was chosen as a case study. Four energy scenarios with a time horizon from 2020 to 2050—the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the Current Policy Projection (CPP) scenario, the Sustainable Growth (SG) scenario, and the Self-Sufficient-Renewable (SSR) scenario—are explored and ranked according to the efforts made in them to achieve an energy transition. Results demonstrates the validity of the tool, showing that, in the long run, the average LCOE of the system benefits from the installation of RES plants, passing from 49.1 €/MWh in 2050 in the BAU scenario to 48.8 €/MWh in the ambitious SG scenario. On the other hand, achieving carbon neutrality and the island’s energy independence brings the LCOE to 531.5 €/MWh, questioning the convenience of large storage infrastructures in San Pietro and opening up future work on the exploration of different storage systems.

On the rules of life and Kleiber's law: the macroscopic relationship between materials and energy

Efforts to accommodate the growth in global energy consumption within a fragile biosphere are primarily focused on managing the transition towards a low-carbon energy mix. We show evidence that a more fundamental problem exists through a scaling relation, akin to Kleiber's Law, between society's energy consumption and material stocks. Humanity's energy consumption scales at 0.78 of its material stocks, which implies predictable environmental pressure regardless of the energy mix. If true, future global energy scenarios imply vast amounts of materials and corresponding environmental degradation, which have not been adequately acknowledged. Thus, limits to energy consumption are needed regardless of the energy mix to stabilize human intervention in the biosphere.

Correction to: Analysis of the Theoretical and Practical Energy Requirements to Produce Iron and Steel, with Summary Equations that Can Be Applied in Developing Future Energy Scenarios

Correction to: Analysis of the Theoretical and Practical Energy Requirements to Produce Iron and Steel, with Summary Equations that Can Be Applied in Developing Future Energy Scenarios

Economic Evaluation of Implementation of Power-to-Gas: Application to the Case of Spain

An economic analysis of the implementation of the power-to-gas (PtG) system between 2030 and 2055 is presented at a large scale. The capacity of the PtG system is adapted to two scenarios in Spain (Bailera and Lisbona 2018), corresponding to growing scenarios of 1.73 and 1.36%/y of its electricity market. The total power capacity of the PtG system has been fixed to 12.7 and 3.84 GW, respectively, at the end of 2055. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) of the implementation of PtG has been evaluated. Assuming uncertainties in the current cost projections for CAPEX and OPEX, LCOS estimations are between 136 and 686 EUR/MWh with a payback time of 16 years in the best scenario for a reference electricity purchase of 100 EUR/MWh and a CO2 penalty of 100 EUR/ton. A sensitivity analysis and the viability dependence versus energy purchase and CO2 penalty certificates is shown. This work sheds some light for the comparison of PtG implementation costs in comparison with other storage options, such as batteries, pumped-storage hydroelectricity or compressed air storage for future energy scenarios.

Hydrogen station evolution towards a poly-generation energy system

The present paper analyzes an innovative energy system based on a hydrogen station, as the core of a smart energy production center, where the produced hydrogen is then used in different hydrogen technologies adopted and installed nearby the station. A case study analysis has been proposed and then investigated, with a station capacity of up to 360 kg of hydrogen daily generated, located close to a University Campus. A hydrogen mobility network has been included, composed of a fuel cell hydrogen fleet of 41 vehicles, 43 bicycles, and 28 fuel cell forklifts. The innovative proposed energy system needs to meet also a power and heat demand for a student housing 5400 m2 building of the University Campus. The performance of the system is presented and investigated, including technical and economic analyses, proposing a hydrogen refueling station as an innovative alternative fuel infrastructure, called Multi-modular Hydrogen Energy Station, marking its great potential in future energy scenarios.

The future of residue-based bioenergy for industrial use in Sub-Saharan Africa

Energy outlooks for Africa feature increased use of fossil fuels. However, they widely ignore that a transition from traditional to modern bioenergy can support the increasing commercial energy demand and offer a high level of flexibility and dispatchability. We use energy statistics, resource assessments and demand analysis to show how switching traditional biomass use to more sustainable technologies could practically eliminate unsustainable fuelwood use. Furthermore, mobilising agricultural and forestry residue for commercial use could grow a sustainable biomass industry and offset Africa's projected expansion of fossil fuels. The assessment focuses on feedstocks and potential energy conversion options for selected and most promising bioenergy pathways in Sub-Saharan Africa's growing and economically relevant industries: cement, agricultural processing, livestock, and horticulture. Examples of specific applications are given to support the high-level resource assessment and demand balances in these sectors. Our results indicate that 3317 PJ bioenergy could be utilised in Sub-Saharan Africa. Even with the calculated gap between biomass availability and biomass demand of 5559 PJ in future energy scenarios, bioenergy can contribute to sustainable energy supply and access in SSA. The sustainability mapping highlighted that bioenergy could deliver integral social and economic impacts because of the close integration with agriculture as the main livelihood supporting sector in SSA. Sustainability frameworks and governance structures must consider bioenergy beyond its cost and clean energy potential to maximise positive trade-offs.

Estimation of Rwanda's Power System Inertia as Input for Long-term Dynamic Frequency Response Regulation Planning

Changes in the quota between conventional generation and renewable energy sources constitute major challenges that the modern power systems have to encounter. Conventional power plants are replaced by renewable generation (e.g. wind turbines, photovoltaics) that contribute to the reduction of power system inertia. This may introduce frequency stability issues because frequency is affected by the amount of system inertia, along with the response of controllable frequency reserves and the amount of power imbalance. Therefore, the estimation and analysis of power system inertia and the frequency response assessment is essential to ensure power system stability and security. This paper proposes a novel method to estimates the inertia constant for three different periods in future, namely, 2025, 2035 and 2050 based on the produced future energy scenarios (FES) for Rwandan's power system. In addition, the paper evaluates the frequency response dynamics for each scenario. Results show that the highest progression in renewable energy resources penetration resulted to a larger reduction in the system inertia constant (from 7.2 in control area 1 to 3.83s in control area 3) and the largest frequency drop was observed during the high progression scenario in the year 2050 where the PV and imported power penetration was expected to reach more than 30% of the total installed capacity.

Experimental evaluation of an innovative radial-flow high-temperature packed bed thermal energy storage

High-temperature packed-bed thermal energy storage represents an economically viable large-scale energy storage solution for a future fossil-free energy scenario. The present work introduces first-of-a-kind experimental setup of a radial packed-bed TES, and its performance assessment based on experimental investigations. The storage performance is analyzed based on a set of dimensionless criteria and indicators. The laboratory-scale prototype has an energy capacity of 49.7 kWhth and working temperatures between 25 °C and 700 °C with a non-pressurized dry airflow. The influence of different working fluid mass flow rates and inlet temperatures during charge and discharge is assessed. The proposed storage design ensures limited pressure drop, lower than 1 mbar, and thermal losses, about 1.11 % during dwell after charging at 700 °C until a state of charge of 55.8 %. A maximum overall thermal efficiency of 71.8 % has been recorded and trade-offs between efficiency, thermal uniformity, and thermocline thickness are highlighted. This work testifies that reduced pressure drops are the key advantage of radial-flow packed-bed designs. Thermocline degradation is shown to be the main weak point of this thermal energy storage design.

The Role of Bioeconomy in the Future Energy Scenario: A State-of-the-Art Review

The bioeconomy aims at decreasing reliance on fossil fuels, preventing or reducing climate change, eliminating insecurity, and efficiently using resources; however, fierce controversy exists on conceivable pathways to accomplish these objectives. The transport sector alone, which encompasses all other industrial sectors, has grown with regard to its energy demand by 50% over the past 30 years. The aim of this paper is to promote a dialogue as to whether an economy based on biomass can be more sustainable than today’s existing economies, considering that the economy needs to expand and be boosted, while creating a cascading and recycling system. This semi-systematic review paper discusses four research questions based on findings from the last 20 years: (i) What are the crucial issues in the ongoing debate on the development of a sustainable bioeconomy concept? (ii) Where are the major conflicting points and focuses? (iii) How does the bioeconomy follow current urbanization and land-abandonment trends? (iv) How will the crisis linked to the COVID-19 pandemic change these previous scenarios? As it is not easy to currently predict which pathway will be the most effective, whether it be the one taken as of now or a specific novel pathway, this article recommends following a strategy that is diverse regarding its approaches to shaping the bioeconomy and further funding of renewable energy sources, along with the involvement of urban planning. In addition, conclusions are validated through a questionnaire completed by 51 experts in the field.

Data-driven modeling for long-term electricity price forecasting

Estimating the financial viability of renewable energy investments requires the availability of long-term, finely-resolved electricity prices over the investment lifespan. This entails, however, two major challenges: (i) the combination of extensive time horizons and fine time resolutions, and (ii) the prediction of out-of-sample electricity prices in future energy and market scenarios, or shifts in pricing regime, that were not observed in the past. This paper tackles such challenges by proposing a data-driven model for the long-term prediction of electricity market prices that is based on Fourier analysis. The electricity price is decomposed into components leading to its base evolution, which are described through the amplitudes of the main frequencies of the Fourier series, and components leading to high price volatility, which are described by the residual frequencies. The former are predicted via a regression model that uses as input annual values of relevant energy and market quantities, such as electricity generation, prices and demands. The proposed method shows capable of (i) predicting the most relevant dynamics of the electricity price; (ii) generalization by capturing the market mechanisms of previously unseen electricity markets. These findings support the relevance and validity of data-driven, finely-resolved, long-term predictions and highlight the potential for hybrid data-driven and market-based models.

The Health Impact and External Cost of Electricity Production

The use of fossil fuels, which still dominate global primary energy consumption, results not only in emissions of greenhouse gas but also in emissions of pollutants such as SO2, NOx, and PM. Damage caused by air pollution can be expressed in monetary terms in the form of external costs to society. The goal of this paper is to answer the following questions: How much will the energy sector’s emissions change as a result of decarbonization? What is the estimated level of external costs related to human health in future energy scenarios? How large are the estimated external costs compared to the planned investments in this sector? The study conducted for the period 2018–2050 used the impact pathway approach and covered the centralized power and heat generation sector in Poland. The reported values of the concentration–response functions that relate human exposure to air pollution with health impact were reviewed. The results show that external costs decrease from an estimated annual level in the range of EUR 782–1911 million in 2018 to EUR 36–876 million in 2050. The cumulative value of avoided external costs between 2018 and 2050 is significantly lower than the planned capital expenditures in the energy sector in Poland.