The Health Impact and External Cost of Electricity Production

Janusz Zyśk,Wojciech Suwała,Tadeusz Olkuski,Marcin Pluta,Artur Wyrwa,Maciej Raczyński

doi:10.3390/en14248263

Abstract

The use of fossil fuels, which still dominate global primary energy consumption, results not only in emissions of greenhouse gas but also in emissions of pollutants such as SO2, NOx, and PM. Damage caused by air pollution can be expressed in monetary terms in the form of external costs to society. The goal of this paper is to answer the following questions: How much will the energy sector’s emissions change as a result of decarbonization? What is the estimated level of external costs related to human health in future energy scenarios? How large are the estimated external costs compared to the planned investments in this sector? The study conducted for the period 2018–2050 used the impact pathway approach and covered the centralized power and heat generation sector in Poland. The reported values of the concentration–response functions that relate human exposure to air pollution with health impact were reviewed. The results show that external costs decrease from an estimated annual level in the range of EUR 782–1911 million in 2018 to EUR 36–876 million in 2050. The cumulative value of avoided external costs between 2018 and 2050 is significantly lower than the planned capital expenditures in the energy sector in Poland.

Highlights

The scenarios presented in the recently published report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that only a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions to almost zero will keep the Earth’s temperature at a level similar to today [1]
The main question we addressed was: What is the proportion of the avoided external costs for the energy sector to the capital cost of transforming the sector into a climate-neutral one? The impact pathway approach (IPA) was used to estimate the external costs of emissions
The levels of emissions of pollutant released into the air from the energy sector in Poland were estimated for 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050 based on fuel activity provided in each group of generation units and fuel-specific emission limit values (ELVs) for pollutants

Summary

Introduction

The scenarios presented in the recently published report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that only a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions to almost zero will keep the Earth’s temperature at a level similar to today (scenarioSSP1–1.9) [1]. Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that only a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions to almost zero will keep the Earth’s temperature at a level similar to today In its National Energy and Climate Plan submitted to the European Commission, Poland sets the following climate and energy targets for 2030: (i) a 7% reduction in GHG emissions in non-ETS sectors compared to 2005 levels, (ii) a 21–23% share of renewable energy sources (RES) in gross final energy consumption, and (iii) a reduction in the share of coal in electricity production to 56–60% [3]. The share of RES in gross final energy consumption is planned at 28.5%, and the share of brown and hard coal in electricity production at 28% [4]. In 2018, the share of coal in electricity generation in Poland was

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion