Food Exports Research Articles

Combination of MS medium and Gandasil D on banana shoots growth in vitro

Cavendish banana has a high economic for food export commodities. High export opportunities need to be balanced with increased productivity by selecting superior seedlings through in vitro seed propagation. The tissue fruitfulness depends on the media used. The media used substitution between MS media and Gandasil D leaf fertilizer with different concentrations. The researcher also used a completely randomized design (CRD) of one factor with five treatment combinations and six repetition. The treatment used is MS 100% as a control; 75% MS + 25% Gandasil D; 50% MS + 50% Gandasil D; 25% MS + 75% Gandasil D; 100% D. the variables observed include time of buds, number of shoots, plantlet height, time of leaves, number of leaves, time of roots, number of roots, and root length. The data analysis used is the physical analysis method based on the F test of 5% level. The results of the research showed that 100% Gandasil D and 25% MS + 75% Gandasil D treatment had the highest influence on the number of leaves, number of shoots, plant height, and number of roots. The mixture of MS media and leaf fertilizer can be used as an alternative medium for multiplication of Cavendish bananas.

Philippine halal food export industry: life cycle, trends, and global outlook

Since the promulgation of the Philippine Halal Export and Promotion Act in 2016, there has been no formal research conducted to assess its impact on the industry’s development. This study aimed to assess the status of the Philippine Halal Industry, identify opportunities and challenges, and formulate recommendations to further enhance and sustain growth of the Philippine Halal Industry instrumental to the creation of a national development plan. Following a qualitative research design, thematic, pattern and content analyses were applied. Findings from virtual focus group discussions with Halal exporters highlighted the current emerging state of the Halal Industry in the Philippines in terms of industry structure, changes in the nature of innovation and determinants of survival. The global demand for Halal products continued to prove promising even if confronted by significant challenges in terms of certification, quality assurance and inability to synchronize with the prevailing international standards. Government support infrastructure is necessary to sustain the industry’s development. Technological research and development with respect to quality assurance and traceability are necessary for the Philippine Food Halal Industry to prosper both in the domestic and export market.

食品出口企业管理者的安全意识与管理体系——以烟台市和重庆市为例

食品出口企业管理者的安全意识与管理体系——以烟台市和重庆市为例

Світові ринки агропродовольчих товарів та участь у них України

The article examines the development trends on the world markets of agro-food products. It is pointed out that the world food market is developing according to the trends of international economic relations, so it mainly reflects their characteristic patterns in a certain period of time. The intensification of globalization and international integration has led to changes in the economies of certain countries and the whole world, as well as it has changed the consumer preferences and tastes of people around the world, so the development of agro-food markets is extremely important. The countries that form the main demand for agro-food products and comprise the main driving force of world trade in world markets are named. Regularities between the economic development of the country and consumer preferences are revealed. Forecasts on the expected state of the world food market are given and the place of Ukraine in these processes is determined. It is investigated that in the future the presence of our state on world grain markets will be maintained. It is indicated on the segment of Ukraine in the world trade of agricultural goods. It is emphasized that Ukraine is currently only at the initial stage of entering the world agro-food markets, and domestic food exports are dominated by raw materials or products with low added value (grain, vegetable oil, sugar, etc.), and exports of final food products have not reached significant volumes. The supply of ready-made domestic food products to the world market should become one of the important landmarks of the country's foreign economic policy.

УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ЭКСПОРТНЫМ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫМ ПОТЕНЦИАЛОМ КАК ИМПУЛЬС РАЗВИТИЯ АГРОПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ

The current state of the domes- tic agro-industrial complex requires the search for new forms and methods to increase the effectiveness of impact of the economic mechanisms operating in the export of food products system, which can affect not only the results of production, but also the volume of the export of food products and agricultural raw materials. The article substantiates the urgency of the modifying the management of export food potential and its demand from the state, the agro-industrial complex, and economic entities represented by individual commodity producers. To solve this problem, the paper proposes the creation of an export potential managing architecture using a risk- based approach. External and internal macro- economic risks reduce the expected income of many participants of the food production process. The position of commodity producers loses stability under the influence of direct or indirect threats, as well as risks that cause additional, and in some cases, critical magnitude material and financial losses. The risk-oriented architecture of the export food potential management of the Russian Federation through the functioning of an effective organizational and economic management mechanism will not only protect the domestic food production market from fluctuations resulting from risky events and macroeconomic instability, but also form a scientifically based system mechanism to meet domestic and external demand. The development of export potential based on minimizing the associated risks and threats will provide agricultural enterprises with access to external markets, give an impulse to the development of competitive production and the agricultural economy as a whole.

The Impact of the Real Effective Exchange Rate on Poland’s Food and Live Animal Exports

In this study, for the 2012M1-2020M1 period, the relationship between Poland’s real effective exchange rate and its food and animal exports were examined by the bounds test. The stationary analyses of variables were examined by the ADF and PP tests. According to the results of a cointegration test, a cointegration relation among the real effective exchange rate, food and live animal exports, as well as industrial production was determined. It was also concluded that the real effective exchange rate has a long-term negative impact on Poland's food and live animal exports. This research also established that a 1% increase in the real effective exchange rate in the long-term would decrease Poland's food and animal exports by 3.091%. Also, industrial production has a positive impact on Poland’s food and animal exports, as expected. It was determined that a 1% increase in industrial production would increase Poland’s food and animal exports by 2.803%. On the other hand, the error correction term coefficient was found to be -0.119, indicating that 11% of the imbalance in the short-term will be recovered in the next period.

The Formation of the International Imperatives of the National (Food) Security Coefficient in Ukraine under Globalization

The purpose of the study is to review the academic literature on food security issues in order to examine the indicators of rational and minimal nutrition, facilitating the analysis of the existing system of indicators by which to assess the state of the food security system in a country. The aim of the article is to investigate and demonstrate the imperatives behind the formation of Ukraine’s national (food) security in the context of globalization. National food security in the broad sense should be considered as the state of the economy, and more narrowly – as the guaranteed ability of a state to meet the needs of the population by providing each citizen with the required volume, range and quality of food at a level that ensures the health and intellectual development of the individual, based on the principles of self-sufficiency of basic products and their economic and physical accessibility, regardless of the influence of external and internal factors. The Global Food Security Index Ranks of the European Union and Ukraine are analyzed. Consumer expenditure on food consumed at home in Ukraine is analyzed in the article. Average food security indicators of the EU and Ukraine are analyzed for 2001–2018, in particular for food exports, food imports, food production index, food, beverages and tobacco. The dynamics and forecasts of wheat and maize harvest and crop production in Ukraine and the EU are compared. The analysis of the Suite of Food Security Indicators of the EU and Ukraine is presented alongside a comprehensive analysis of the multifactor regression model of Food Production Index from foreign direct investment, net inflows, GDP growth, GNI per capita growth, short-term debt, tax revenue, total natural resources rents, and trade. The analysis has shown that for the analysis of the food production index it is effective to build a regression model, because it allows not only to estimate the degree of influence of the factor on the result, but also to most effectively predict the size of the food production index for the future.

Salmonella is the most common foodborne pathogen in African food exports to the European Union: Analysis of the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (1999–2019)

Global food imports, including those from Africa, constitute an integral part of the food chain in the European Union (EU) and a potential source of food hazards. Foodborne pathogens are among the food hazards that do not only impact on public health but also have economic implications for exporters. The Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) is an important tool for reporting and communicating food safety risks among EU Member States and EEA countries. This study aimed to identify the common foodborne pathogens in foods originating from African countries to the EU between 1999 and 2019 by analysing RASFF notifications. A total of 596 notifications were reported by 19 countries due to the presence of pathogenic microorganisms (PM) in food originating from 27 African countries. The highest number of notifications related to Greece (n = 228) and most of the PM notifications were border rejections (60.6%). PM notifications increased from 17 (2016) to 46 (2017) and 173 (2019). Salmonella was the most predominant pathogen notified, accounting for 523 (87.8%) of PM notifications. Over half (52%) of the Salmonella notifications were from foods originating from Eastern Africa, followed by Western Africa (n = 145; 28%), and the country with the highest Salmonella contamination was Sudan (n = 182). The most important product category contaminated with Salmonella was “nuts, nut products and seeds” (n = 343), with majority (n = 335) being sesame seeds. Evaluation of the RASFF risk decision listed for each notification showed that 97% of Salmonella-contaminated sesame seeds posed serious risks to consumers. African countries exporting food products to the EU must strengthen their food safety systems to prevent the huge economic losses resulting from non-compliance with EU food safety standards.

Development of food exports to ensure economic security

This paper deals with knowledge in the field of increasing the level of the state economic security in view of the development of foreign trade in food products. The obtained results make it possible to determine the relationship between food and economic security, as well as the place of foreign trade in achieving sustainable development. The assessment of the volume of food production and the level of food security has allowed the authors of the paper to identify promising food groups for export. They include meat and meat products, as well as vegetables and gourds. These groups were determined on the basis of an assessment of the level of production, the volumes of which correspond to the threshold values of food security and have growth prospects. Calculations of the balance of food products, taking into account the needs of the domestic and foreign markets, are presented in the paper. The calculations are based on the condition of maintaining the target level of food security and increasing economic security. The main results of stimulating exports of food products will be: diversification of exports, an increase in the country’s share in world trade, an increase in foreign exchange earnings, expansion of agricultural production and a cumulative growth in gross domestic product. The instruments of state regulation of foreign trade in food products will be export quantitative quotas for goods the production level of which exceeds the threshold of self-sufficiency, as well as increased export duties on food, the production of which does not cover the domestic needs of the country. As part of the study a potential effect of the proposed measures implementation to improve economic security was presented. The potential for increasing exports is more than 1.5 million tons for meat and meat products and 162 thousand tons for vegetables and gourds.

Sustainable Floodplains: Linking E-Flows to Floodplain Management, Ecosystems, and Livelihoods in the Sahel of North Africa

Floodplains are particularly important in the semi-arid region of the Sub-Sahelian Africa. In this region, water governance is still being developed, often without adequate information and technical capacity for good, sustainable water resource management. However, water resources are being allocated for use with minimal sustainability considerations. Environmental flows (e-flows) include the quantity and timing of flows or water levels needed to meet the sustainable requirements of freshwater and estuarine ecosystems. Holistic regional scale e-flows linked to floodplain management can make a noticeable contribution to sustainable floodplain management. The Inner Niger Delta (IND) in Mali is an example of a vulnerable, socio-ecologically important floodplain in the Sahel region of North Africa that is being developed with little understanding of sustainability requirements. Although integrally linked to the Upper Niger River catchment, the IND sustains a million and half people within the region and exports food to surrounding areas. The flooding of the Delta is the engine of the socio-economic development as well as its ecological integrity. This paper aims to demonstrate the contribution that holistic regional e-flow assessment using the PROBFLO approach has to achieving floodplain sustainability. This can be achieved through the determining the e-flow requirements to maintain critical requirements of the ecosystems and associated services used by local vulnerable human communities for subsistence and describing the socio-ecological consequences of altered flows. These outcomes can contribute to the management of the IND. In this study, the socio-ecological consequences of altered flows have been evaluated by assessing the risk of alterations in the volume, duration, and timing of flows, to a number of ecological and social endpoints. Based on the risk posed to these endpoints by each scenario of change, an e-flow of 58% (26,685 million cubic meters (MCM) of water annually) was determined that would protect the ecosystem and maintain indicator components at a sustainable level. These e-flows also provide sustainable services to local communities including products for subsistence and limit any abnormal increases in diseases to the vulnerable African communities who live in the basin. Relative risk outputs for the development scenarios result in low-to-high-risk probabilities for most endpoints. The future development scenarios include insufficient flows to maintain sustainability during dry or low-flow periods with an increase in zero flow possibilities. Although unsuitable during the low-flow or dry periods, sufficient water is available through storage in the basin to meet the e-flows if these scenarios were considered for implementation. The IND is more vulnerable to changes in flows compared to the rivers upstream of the IND. The e-flow outcomes and consequences of altered flow scenarios has contributed to the management of vulnerable IND floodplains and the requirements and trade-off considerations to achieve sustainability.

ЕАЭО ЖАҒДАЙЫНДА ҚАЗАҚСТАННЫҢ ЭКСПОРТҚА БАҒДАРЛАНҒАН АУЫЛ ШАРУАШЫЛЫҒЫ ӨНІМІН ӨНДІРУ

The system of measures of public support for production of export-oriented agricultural products in Kazakhstan and the EAEU member States is considered, directions for its improvement are determined. Indicators of production of gross domestic product, gross agricultural output, the share of crop production industry in it on average for 2015-2019 are presented. The prospects for export of domestic food have been studied; for this purpose, it is necessary to strengthen agricultural specialization of each industry. The authors note that phytosanitary measures are currently not regulated, there is no unified method for calculating the level of support, unified requirements for obtaining breeding products, a unified procedure for animal identification, unified rules for laboratory research and veterinary control. It is required to systematize and harmonize the existing tools and mechanisms for the development of the branches of agro-industrial complex of the republic in order to form a single market for the States of the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as develop sectoral programs. The article substantiates the need for systematic public support for the development of agro-industrial complex, aimed at meeting the needs of the domestic market and the implementation of centralized policy to promote exports. It is shown that environmental friendliness is one of the main competitive advantages of food products in the republic, contributing to the strengthening of Kazakhstan's positions on external sales market. The structure of exports of Kazakhstani agricultural products should be focused on reducing the share of raw materials in favor of agricultural products with high added value. In industries with high export potential, large specialized commodity zones and optimal flows of goods will be formed in order to ensure the country's food security.

Disease Pandemics and Major Epidemics Arising from New Encounters between Indigenous Viruses and Introduced Crops.

Virus disease pandemics and epidemics that occur in the world’s staple food crops pose a major threat to global food security, especially in developing countries with tropical or subtropical climates. Moreover, this threat is escalating rapidly due to increasing difficulties in controlling virus diseases as climate change accelerates and the need to feed the burgeoning global population escalates. One of the main causes of these pandemics and epidemics is the introduction to a new continent of food crops domesticated elsewhere, and their subsequent invasion by damaging virus diseases they never encountered before. This review focusses on providing historical and up-to-date information about pandemics and major epidemics initiated by spillover of indigenous viruses from infected alternative hosts into introduced crops. This spillover requires new encounters at the managed and natural vegetation interface. The principal virus disease pandemic examples described are two (cassava mosaic, cassava brown streak) that threaten food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and one (tomato yellow leaf curl) doing so globally. A further example describes a virus disease pandemic threatening a major plantation crop producing a vital food export for West Africa (cacao swollen shoot). Also described are two examples of major virus disease epidemics that threaten SSA’s food security (rice yellow mottle, groundnut rosette). In addition, brief accounts are provided of two major maize virus disease epidemics (maize streak in SSA, maize rough dwarf in Mediterranean and Middle Eastern regions), a major rice disease epidemic (rice hoja blanca in the Americas), and damaging tomato tospovirus and begomovirus disease epidemics of tomato that impair food security in different world regions. For each pandemic or major epidemic, the factors involved in driving its initial emergence, and its subsequent increase in importance and geographical distribution, are explained. Finally, clarification is provided over what needs to be done globally to achieve effective management of severe virus disease pandemics and epidemics initiated by spillover events.

PROSPECTS FOR THE EXPORT DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE'S MEAT AND DIARY PRODUCTS TO CHINA

Introduction. Currently, food exports from Ukraine are in transition. The loss of the Russian market has made it necessary for Ukrainian exporters to find new markets, this search cannot be stopped due to the development of the food industry and food producers. Another reason for finding new markets is the decline in demand for certain food and low wages, which leads to lower profits for processors in the domestic market. The purpose of the research is to study the Chinese meat and dairy market and prospects for its development for food producers and exporters from Ukraine. In conducting research, a set of the following methods and techniques of scientific knowledge was used: abstract-logical, monographic and economic statistics, methods of analysis and synthesis (in assessing factors for development market processes), the method of scientific comparison. Results. The article considers the current situation on the market of the Republic of China in the production, import and consumption of meat and dairy products. The import indicators of the most popular product categories, namely the value and quantitative indicators of 2019, have been studied. The largest exporters of all categories of products considered in the article were identified, as well as last year's production figures and forecasts for future years. The main trends in industrial development were identified. The export system of products to the Republic of China was described and explained with the help of structural-functional method, properties and characteristics of dairy and meat products import were determined by comparison, abstract-logical method allowed to generalize and formulate conclusions and tips for entering the PRC market. Conclusions. The study identified the most popular products of the meat and dairy industry, and explained their distribution. The current state of the food industry in Ukraine is determined, and recommendations for exporters on the choice of export products and preparation for export are provided. Development of standards and guides for the export development of Ukraine’s meat and dairy products to China would be in great value. Keywords: market, export, agri-food products, meat and dairy industry, development.

PRODUCT QUALITY CONTROL IN ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF A CONFECTIONERY ENTERPRISE

Introduction. Analysis of the financial condition of the confectionery industry shows that in general most indicators have a positive trend, but some of them sometimes have negative values. This indicates the existing threats of bankruptcy, so the question of improving the methodology for identifying the crisis and developing the concept of crisis management of confectionery, including the use of controlling as a tool to prevent crises. The purpose of this article is determining the role of quality controlling in anti-crisis management of a confectionery enterprise on the basis of a cost-oriented approach. Results. The essence of the modern concept of anti-crisis cost-oriented management of a confectionery enterprise is revealed and its main structure is given in the article. Controlling as a function of enterprise management is considered. The necessity of the complex approach at research of tools of anti-crisis regulation and management is proved. The essence of complexity is revealed, which is the need to include in the control system of quality indicators in accordance with the System of Hazard Analysis (HACCP) and EU guidelines for its application with the identification of hazards at critical control points (CCPs). The essence of cost-oriented management of the confectionery enterprise is revealed. It is noted that it proceeds from the need to avoid the threat of crisis manifestations. The factors of their occurrence are given, among which the most essential are technological and organizational-production factors which are reduced to a cost component. Conclusions. The controlling system at the confectionery enterprise, along with the indicators of financial condition, should identify any technological or organizational-production aspect of its activity that is important for food safety, as well as ensure that appropriate safety procedures are established, implemented, followed and updated, based on the principles that were used to develop the HACCP system. This approach corresponds the Strategy for the Development of Exports of Agricultural Products, Food and Processing Industry of Ukraine – 2026. Key words: confectionery enterprise, controlling, crisis, cost-oriented management, dangerous factors, critical control points.

Capturing the Experiences of Samoa: The Changing Food Environment and Food Security in Samoa during the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Capturing the Experiences of Samoa: The Changing Food Environment and Food Security in Samoa during the <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 Pandemic

ВНЕШНЕЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ СЕЛЬСКОХО-ЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ ТОВАРОПРОИЗВОДИТЕЛЕЙ И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ В ЕАЭС

The aim of the study is to determine the impact of foreign economic security of agricultural producers on the integration and stability of the EAEU. The positive and negative impact of exports and imports on economic growth in the industry and economy, which can pose threats to foreign economic security, is highlighted. Indices of gross added value of agricultural goods, structure of export and import of goods by purpose in dynamics for 2015-2019, changes of share of export and import of agricultural raw materials and food products were analyzed. A conclusion was made about similar trends in the EAEU member states in the dynamics of agricultural production, the growth of food exports, a decrease in imports, the impact of the export and import of agricultural raw materials and food products of the EAEU member states on the economic growth of the agricultural industry.

The Marketing Ethical Strategies of Thailand’s Organic Rice Based on Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC)

Despite being one of the world’s major exporters of food, Thailand is facing mounting problems concerning unstainable agriculture practices. Organic farming could help to address environmental, social and economic issues, organic rice practices are proven to improve soil fertility, foster biodiversity, increase economic yield. The stakeholders of organic rice practices should adopt the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) favorable policies and embrace the digital era. The increased utilization of smart organic farming technology and greater access of corporate social responsibility could help to add the organic rice value and enlarge the export volumes to international markets. The effectively implementation of the marketing ethical strategies could help to reduce Thailand’s rice famer heavy household debt and get out of Thai poverty debt traps.

COVID-19, Trade, and Health: This Changes Everything? Comment on "What Generates Attention to Health in Trade Policy-Making? Lessons From Success in Tobacco Control and Access to Medicines: A Qualitative Study of Australia and the (Comprehensive and Progressive) Trans-Pacific Partnership".

Townsend and colleagues highlighted the myriad political forces which fostered attention to health issues during negotiations to establish a new trans-pacific trade deal in Australia (the CP-TPP [Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership], formerly known as TPP). Among the factors they identify, exporter interests and exogenous events helped to generate attention to trade-related concerns about tobacco and access medicines, and limited attention to nutrition and alcohol. These are important considerations as the United Kingdom negotiates a trade deal with the United States in haste, whilst at the same time attempting to manage the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this commentary, I reflect on changing attention to trade and nutrition during the COVID-19 pandemic in light of Townsend and colleagues’ analysis. I explore scope for greater attention to nutrition in US-UK trade negotiations, and the challenges created by the vested interests of major UK and US processed food exporters. I further discuss the utility of the theoretical tools employed by Townsend and colleagues for wider debates in the political economy of health.

Exploring the motives behind the purchase of western imported food products. A phenomenological study from a Muslim-dominated region

PurposeThe usage and preference of western imported food in a Muslim-majority state signifies its importance and relevance in a specific culture. However, the inclination and preference toward imported food products must be backed by a strong motivation, when the religion of Islam does not permit overspending yet the amount spent on such imported food products is overwhelming. Hence, the purpose of this study is to explore the motivation behind this behavior.Design/methodology/approachThis is a qualitative study, and in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 90 participants comprising professionals, housewives and university students from eight cities in Pakistan, which represented different regions and demographic variables. These were Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Peshawar, Quetta, Hyderabad, Faisalabad and Larkana. The technique used to analyze the qualitative interview findings was thematic content analysis. To confirm the results, Leximancer software Version 4.5 was used to reanalyze and validate them. Moreover, the purposive sampling method has been used in this research.FindingsThe findings from the qualitative-focused interviews revealed that the product attributes of packaging with attractive colors, design, size, overall quality material, taste and labeling with maximum product information influenced their purchase behavior. The vast majority reported that food products coming from the west needed to be halal, and this is an important deciding factor for purchase. Also, the level of religiosity related to western imported food buying behavior varies from city to city, which itself an interesting finding from a Muslim-majority population. Brand trust, loyalty, satisfaction, subjective norms were influential factors for Muslim consumers’ purchase behavior.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper is qualitative in nature, and therefore, the generalizability of the study results is limited. Also, this study only focused on Muslim consumer buying behavior from a Muslim-dominated country.Practical implicationsThis study is instrumental for western food producers and exporters, providing valuable information about the motives behind the purchase of western imported food products in Pakistan, and by extension, potentially in Muslim countries in general. The study’s findings would add value to the field of consumer behavior, in which little research has been conducted on the relationship between consumer motives in context with Muslims’ consumer behavior toward western imported food products.Social implicationsThe presence of western imported food products may give better options for consumers so that they can pick a quality product for their own and family usage. The placement of the halal logo and extra care of halal ingredients also assures the religious and cultural requirements, enabling the western imported food products to penetrate quickly.Originality/valueThe findings of the qualitative-focused interviews revealed that the level of religiosity varies from city to city. Even though the core religion is Islam, the level of religious commitment varies in different cities when it comes to the purchase of western imported food products. The interview findings discovered some reasons behind this behavior such as consumer demographic profile, cultural background, income level, education, lifestyle, family background and social class. This means that demographic variation plays an important role in religious commitment and especially across cites that possess different cultural and behavioral patterns.

Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security

AbstractIn recent years, global hunger has begun to rise, returning to levels from a decade ago. Climate change is a key driver behind these recent rises and is one of the leading causes of severe food crises. When coupled with population growth and land use change, future climate variability is predicted to have profound impacts on global food security. We examine future global impacts of climate variability, population, and land use change on food security to 2050, using the modeling framework FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses national food balance sheets (FBS) to determine mean per capita calories, hence incorporating an assumption that minimum dietary energy requirements (MDER) remain constant. To account for climate variability, we use two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), alongside three Shared Socio‐economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios incorporating land use and population change within the model. Our results indicate that SSP scenarios have a larger impact on future food insecurity, in particular because of projected changes in population. Countries with a projected decrease in population growth had higher food security, while those with a projected rapid population growth tended to experience the worst impacts on food security. Although climate change scenarios had an effect on future crop yields, population growth appeared to be the dominant driver of change in undernourishment prevalence. Therefore, strategies to mitigate the consequences of projected population growth, including improved maternal health care, increasing equality of access to food at the national level, closing the yield gap, and changes in trade patterns, are essential to ensuring severe future food insecurity is avoided.