Federal Election Research Articles

The Atlantic vector of Germany in the global arms export system

The article is devoted to the current state of German arms exports and supply directions. The main focus is on exports carried out within the framework of cooperation with the United States and NATO. The article examines the socio-political debates that are caused by exports to "third countries" that contradict political principles. The article analyzes the legislation on the basis of which the sale of weapons and the supply of four major companies, including Heckler & Koch, Rheinmetall, ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and Kraus-Maffei Wegmann. The article concludes that the results of the federal elections in 2021 and the beginning of a special operation in Ukraine in 2022 have posed new challenges to the government of O. Scholz. They are connected with the discussion about the sale of lethal weapons to the countries of the conflict.

Ost vs. West, Nord vs. Süd, Stadt vs. Land? Regionale Spezifika des Wahlverhaltens bei der Bundestagswahl 2021

Following five hypotheses derived from the research literature, the results of the 2021 Ger- man federal election are analyzed on several dimensions: The voting behavior of East and West Germans differs in particular with regard to CDU/CSU and the Green Party, both with electoral strongholds in the West, and the AfD (right-wing populist party) as well as Die Linke (socialist party), both with above-average shares of vote in the East . In this respect, “two German electorates” (Dalton / Bürklin) still exist more than three decades after German reunification . Within those regions, however, clear geographic patterns on a larger scale (e .g ., between the north and the south) are not discernible . The situation chang- es at the city and district levels where considerable differences, especially for the Green Party and the AfD, can be found . These can be interpreted as an indication of conflict between urban areas and rural regions .

It’s the emotion, stupid! Emotional responses to televised debates and their impact on voting intention

AbstractHow do emotional responses to televised debates impact on voting intention? The present article addresses this question drawing on an original dataset combining survey data and real-time responses gathered in the run-up of the 2017 German federal election. The paper contributes to three major discussions in the literature of political science and psychology. First, we show that emotional responses to media stimuli are independent explanatory factors influencing post-debate voting intention while in part mediating real-time evaluations of candidate statements. Second, our analysis demonstrates that the impact of emotional responses to televised debates can barely be deemed to be structured along one single dimension of valence but that discrete emotions show distinct effects. Third, the paper supports the notion that anger and enthusiasm have an indirect impact on voting intention by increasing the weight of political predisposition and reducing the weight of evaluation of current information on candidates’ issue stances in televised debates. We also find empirical evidence for the indirect effect of anxiety as well; it reverses the pattern and reduces the weight of political conviction while increasing the importance of evaluations about candidate statements. However, the latter finding does not seem to be very robust as in fact, substitutions are also able to generate this pattern. Finally, the paper reviews implications of the findings and discusses limitations and future perspectives of research.

Trends in American scientists’ political donations and implications for trust in science

Scientists in the United States are more politically liberal than the general population. This fact has fed charges of political bias. To learn more about scientists’ political behavior, we analyze publicly available Federal Election Commission data. We find that scientists who donate to federal candidates and parties are far more likely to support Democrats than Republicans, with less than 10 percent of donations going to Republicans in recent years. The same pattern holds true for employees of the academic sector generally, and for scientists employed in the energy sector. This was not always the case: Before 2000, political contributions were more evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. We argue that these observed changes are more readily explained by changes in Republican Party attitudes toward science than by changes in American scientists. We reason that greater public involvement by centrist and conservative scientists could help increase trust in science among Republicans.

„Mehr Demokratie wagen?!“ Zur Absenkung der Altersgrenze für das aktive Wahlrecht zum Deutschen Bundestag

Lowering the voting age for federal elections in Germany from 18 to 16 years has been discussed for several years . Numerous political forces endeavor to give minors the opportu- nity to participate in democratic decision-making by lowering the voting age . The coalition agreement between SPD, Greens, and FDP also contains plans for lowering the voting age to 16 . In addition to sociological aspects, there are, however, notable questions from the point of view of the constitutional law that must be considered . Various comparison bases for age limits within the whole legal system must be carefully examined, especially regard- ing the suitability for justifying a lowering of the voting age . It should be noted that this ought to be justified independently of any basis for comparison; it should be exclusively based on the democratic ability of citizens to participate in the communication process between citizens and parliament . This assessment is the sole responsibility of the constitu- tion-amending legislature .

Im Schatten von Covid-19: Thematisierungsstrategien der Parteien in der Bundestagswahl 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic and its consequences had a significant impact on the social, politi- cal, ecological, and economic life over the past nearly two years . How the political parties’ handled the Covid-19 crisis was therefore also said to have significantly influenced the 2021 federal elections in Germany-not least because of the strong focus on the pandemic during the election campaign . Based on fundamental assumptions of saliency theory, issue ownership theory, and issue framing, the issue competition strategies of political parties represented in the German Bundestag during the 19th electoral period regarding the Cov- id-19 pandemic are examined . For this purpose, it is analyzed how important it was pro- grammatically for the Bundestag elections in 2021 by means of content- and frequency- analytical methods, focusing in particular on party-specific differences and commonalities with regard to thematization strategies . The results show that in the 2021 federal election programs, the Covid-19 pandemic was an important valence-issue and that the established parties prioritized Covid-19 issues in areas of their own issue ownership . The Covid-19 crisis is apparently not only to be understood as a valence issue but also as a positional issue - an aspect that future work could take up and examine in more detail .

Die Bundestagswahl als Kanzlerwahl? Personen und Parteien im Wahlkampf 2021

The campaign for the 2021 federal election was exceptional, because Angela Merkel con- cluded her political career . The usual duel between an incumbent chancellor and the candi- date of the second strongest party therefore did not materialize . Instead, three chancellor candidates from different parties competed for the leadership of the country . The election campaign was volatile and opinion surveys show many ups and downs . Thus, the perfor- mance of the top candidates was decisive for the election results of the parties . The old question: Do voters elect personalities or parties must thus be asked anew . It is evaluated in connection with the personalization of the political debate in other democracies and dis- cussed in light of classic writings on the topic . It becomes evident, that even in a pluralized party system and a coalition of three partners, the strong and personalized role of the chan- cellor must not be neglected

2021년 러시아 국가두마 의원 선거 평가 : 민심의 왜곡과 여당의 과대대표

The eighth State Duma election (hereinafter referred to as the general election) was held in Russia for three days from September 17 to 19. The general election was the last federal level election to be held in Putin

TAXPAYER CHOICES, ITEMIZED DEDUCTIONS, AND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FEDERAL & STATE TAX SYSTEMS

Almost 30 million taxpayers who itemized their federal deductions for the 2017 tax year switched to the standard deduction for 2018. The provisions of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (“TCJA”) that led to this shift were intended to simplify the individual income tax system. This Article’s empirical study of federal and state tax filing data, however, demonstrates that the TCJA’s simplifying effect varied state-to-state depending on whether a state obligated its taxpayers to make the same choice for state tax purposes (i.e., to itemize deductions or take the standard deduction) as the taxpayer made for federal purposes. In states that obligated taxpayers to make the same choice, taxpayers experienced at least some simplification, and tax administration by the IRS and state tax authorities became materially easier, although the IRS’s simplification benefit was dampened to some degree. In states that allowed taxpayers to make state tax choices that differed from their federal choices, the TCJA’s simplifying effect for many taxpayers was largely illusory, state income tax administration actually became more complex, and some tax enforcement costs were, in effect, shifted from the IRS to state tax authorities. Thus, this Article’s study reveals that state-level rules about tax choices undermined the federal policy goal motivating the TCJA’s itemization-related changes.
 A taxpayer’s choice whether to itemize is just one of many tax elections explicitly provided to taxpayers. Accordingly, this Article’s study of taxpayers’ itemization choices also serves as an example that illustrates a broader point—state-level rules about whether taxpayers must make uniform federal and state tax elections create important, but previously underappreciated, interactions between the federal and state tax systems. Policymakers cannot fully understand the policy implications of many federal tax law changes unless they appreciate these federal/state interactions. This Article helps policymakers do so.

Combining Forecasts for the 2021 German Federal Election: The PollyVote – CORRIGENDUM

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How Much of Electoral Politics Is in the District? Measuring District Effects on Party Support

AbstractThe electoral district is the fundamental unit of representation in single- and multi-member electoral systems, yet most research shows little interest in district effects on election outcomes, focusing instead on national and individual factors. This is problematic as parties and candidates often put a great deal of effort into district-based campaigns. How, then, can we best capture district effects on party support? We propose a new method using official election returns and geospatial techniques. The result is a measure of how much of a party's vote share is explained by district effects. Using data from the 2006–2019 Canadian federal elections, we find that, on average, 6 to 10 per cent of the variation in a party's vote in Canada is explained by district effects. While district effects on party support are trivial for some districts, in others they account for more than 80 per cent of the variance in party vote shares. The effect of districts on party support is composed, in part, of electoral context, province, socio-economic factors and district campaign intensity. Importantly, the size and sources of district effects on party support vary across parties, suggesting heterogeneity. The benefits of our approach are threefold: (1) it is cost-effective, (2) it can be easily replicated in any setting—past or present—where districts are relevant electoral units and where districting is nonpartisan, and (3) it is responsive to differences in district composition and parties’ campaign effort.

Role of Institutional Environment in Shaping Political Careers of Young Political Leaders in the Regions of South-West Siberia

Evaluating prospects of bringing youth into Russian political elites has both an acuteness of a scientific challenge and practical relevance in the light of upcoming federal and regional elections of 2021. Based on the surveys of mass political consciousness of the youth and expert polls held in 2018-2020 in Altai Krai and Novosibirsk Oblast, the article has analyzed the visions of young people and their leaders on the effectiveness of career development through participation in youth political organizations, political parties and running for posts in election campaigns. Having measured these visions against the proportion of young people in the elite of the regional offices of political parties and in the lists of candidates running in regional elections, the authors have come to the conclusion about the low acceptance rate of career lift in regional political process. The object of the research comprises regions with different level of social and economic development, which has proved that lack of resource hinders realization of young leaders potential primarily in the regions with high concentration of economic capital and strong political competition.

Canada’s Right-Wing Extremists: Mapping their Ties, Location, and Ideas

Canada has often been seen as a progressive country that is welcoming to immigrants, promotes multiculturalism, and generally as a kind and tolerant society. This study used a two-month close examination of Canada’s RWE online presence surrounding the 2019 federal election. Using social network analysis, this study fills a needed empirical gap in current understanding of this network that are known to produce and sustain domestic terrorism and extremist hate crimes in Canada. Then using both discourse and correspondence analysis, we find that Canada’s Right-Wing Extremists (RWEs) galvanize around the following key ideas: leftist-propensities towards violence, projecting especially views against the Antifa, anti-immigration, media corruption and dishonesty, anti-elite and anti-establishment values, anti-liberalism, populism, anti-LGBT, anti-environmentalism, biological determinism, white victimization, and anti-consumerism. By determining Canadian RWE’s ties, location and ideas our findings reveal that many RWE leaders are seen as authoritative for their views in the network and create content and community, potentially inciting active participation. As social contagion theory reminds us, these authorities in the RWE network may inspire others into concrete violent action and are of great concern to public safety.

A Longitudinal, Geographical, and Descriptive Analysis of Political Contributions of Plastic Surgeons.

BackgroundPolitical contributions from healthcare providers are essential to shaping healthcare policy and allow physicians to expand their influence on a national level. Political Action Committees in particular provide a useful avenue for unifying contributions for the interest of a specific community. This study examined the geographical distribution, temporal pattern, and overall nature of the political contributions made by plastic surgeons.MethodsThe Federal Election Commission was analyzed for political contributions made by plastic surgeons from 2003 to 2021 using the search terms “plastic surgeon,” “microsurgeon,” and “craniofacial” as well as physician contributions to PlastyPAC. Contributions were categorized based on political parties (Democratic, Republican, and independent parties), and further analyzed based on state distribution and year of contribution. Spatial distribution data were then visualized using heatmaps for each state.ResultsThe total sum of contributions between 2003 and 2021 from plastic surgeons was $5,306,605, with $1,737,178.51 for the Republican party, $962,773.26 for the Democratic party, and $2,604,149.86 for independent parties. Political funding of PlastyPAC consisted of 47.3% of the overall political contributions. There was no significant trend through the years in the overall contribution amount. The states with the most political contributions were California, New York, Florida, and Texas.ConclusionsThe temporal stagnation of total political contributions and decline in recent PlastyPAC funding from plastic surgeons support an increased political awareness for new plastic surgeons.Level of evidence VThis journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.

“Les gens qui vous ressemblent”: Discursive Negotiation of Identity and Construction of Affiliation in the 2019 Canadian Federal Election Party Leader Debates

In the weeks leading up to the Canadian federal election, federal party leaders seek to appeal to a crucial part of the electorate - Québec voters, most of whom are of French-Canadian background - through a series of televised debates. As party leaders engage in discourse aimed at creating proximity with and enacting an affiliative stance toward these voters, the debates become a platform for discursive negotiation of Québec identity, in which identity stances and narratives are reflected, reproduced, and challenged. This study examines a corpus of party leaders’ discourse as these political actors interactively negotiate Québec identity during three party leader debates in the 2019 federal election. Following the theoretical framework of Critical Discourse Analysis, the inquiry discusses the following aspects of the party leaders’ discourse: discursive representation of Quebecers’ group identity and self-positioning with respect to that identity, use of symbolic lexis and references that signal attachment to the French-Canadian majority’s collective memory, and self-positioning with respect to the French language. In addition, the discussion addresses implications of the bilingual nature of political discourse in the Canadian context, focusing on party leaders’ use of code-switching and metapragmatic commentary. Crucially, the study’s conclusions suggest that a shared vision of Québec identity has not yet been widely ratified. While the party leaders’ discourse appears largely felicitous with the inclusive, civic vision of Québec identity, the study’s findings point to continued primacy of the French-Canadian fact in its current conceptualization.

Introduction

The German federal election in September 2021 marked a significant transformation for German politics. As Chancellor Angela Merkel decided not to run again, the election spelled the end of her 16-year tenure; it also signaled a major shift in the German party system. The right-populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) entered the Bundestag again after their first entry in 2017, implying—for the first time since 1949—the establishment and sustained parliamentary presence of a party on the national level to the (far-)right of the Christian Democrats. The challenges facing the new parliament and government after the election are paramount. The climate crisis looms as large as ever. With the exception of the AfD, all German parties (and a distinct majority of voters) see this as the most pressing issue to tackle. However, the scope of action will be limited as the extensive state debt accumulated through covid-19 relief measures exerts pressure on the specific German model of social market economy. Finally, the international environment has seen drastic changes in the last years: While the election of u.s. President Joe Biden as successor to Donald Trump implies a return to normal for transatlantic relations, the uk exit from the eu shifts the balance between the remaining member states. After the Euro, refugee, and pandemic crises, European solidarity is strained, complicating Germany’s role as the eu’s “reluctant hegemon” or “gentle giant.” This reluctance or restraint connotes far more than a strategic policy choice: it is deeply rooted in the German history of the twentieth century that witnessed the cruelty and atrocities of the Nazi regime.

Political Crowdfunding and Campaigning on GoFundMe

Background: What does the Canadian use of GoFundMe tell us about the role of non-party campaigners in contemporary election campaigning? Analysis: Within the context of the 2019 Canadian federal election, this article examines how GoFundMe has been used as a platform for fundraising by fringe and populist political voices online. Conclusion and implications: The crowdfunding platform GoFundMe has been leveraged to meet political goals both within and outside of traditional, party-centred, political fundraising setups. The mobilization of GoFundMe’s crowdfunding tools in the 2019 federal election presented an opportune space for the financialization of political goals reflecting right-wing populist ideas.

Commercial Companies in Party Networks: Digital Advertising Firms in US Elections from 2006-2016

ABSTRACT Previous research has found that digital advertising companies such as Facebook and Google function similarly to political consultants, influencing the messaging choices of political clients. This paper situates those insights in the theory of parties as extended networks and presents the first quantitative descriptive analysis of all companies that have provided federal political committees with digital advertising services in national elections. Network analysis measures of political groups registered with the Federal Election Committee in the United States (n = 2,064) and the types of companies they hired for digital political advertising services (political agencies, commercial agencies, digital advertising platforms, or other; n = 1,022) over three midterm and general elections (2006–2016) show that the number of political committees and companies have both dramatically increased since 2008 and that Facebook and Google have become the two most central members of the network. As influencers of the targeting and content of campaign messages, these companies should be considered consequential members of electoral party 0networks. This study contributes to research on political consulting and to the theory of parties as extended networks by demonstrating how opening the inclusion criteria for subject selection can uncover unexpected players, such as the private, previously considered nonpartisan, nonpolitical companies present here.

Campaign Finance Transparency Affects Legislators’ Election Outcomes and Behavior

AbstractDo audits by executive agencies impact the behavior of those audited? Does revealing negative information about legislators affect electoral results and behavior? Institutions that encourage transparency, such as campaign finance disclosure, influence mass and elite behavior. Campaign finance transparency provides information to voters during legislative campaigns about the character of candidates, and this information affects voter and legislator behavior. The US Federal Election Commission conducted random audits of 10% of US House members in the 1970s. This FEC program is the only randomized experiment a US agency has conducted on federal legislators and their electorates. We find that audited legislators were more likely to retire and faced more competitive reelections relative to the control group, an effect that is amplified among incumbents whose audits revealed campaign finance violations. Further, campaign finance scandals are associated with lower incumbent vote shares and approval and more negative advertisements in the 2000s.

Illiberal Communication and Election Intervention during the Refugee Crisis in Germany

Populist discourse—which tends to benefit anti-systemic parties—has been on the rise in the world’s democratic states. Powerful non-democratic states have both the means and the incentive to spread such discourse to democratic states. We clarify the incentives illiberal states have to produce such communication, and delineate how this type of political communication fuses traditional state-to-state propaganda with election interventions. We draw on the case of Kremlin-sponsored communication on the issue of refugees in Germany to illustrate the mechanisms through which the discourse operates in target countries. We create a corpus of over a million news stories to identify the prevalence of illiberal discourse and its timing relative to Germany’s elections. We show that the Kremlin intervened in the 2017 federal elections by promoting refugee stories over and above the rate at which German outlets did. We discuss the broader implications for the use of directed political communication as a form of election intervention.