Fall In Oil Prices Research Articles

National Projects of Russia: Digest of Changes Expected from 2021

In May 2018, the President of the Russian Federation disclosed national development goals of Russia, for the achievement of which a set of measures and tools was proposed, the central place in which was occupied by national projects. The events of 2020, primarily related to the pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19 and the elimination of the negative socio-economic consequences of its spread, have become a serious test for the country. The termination or restriction of the work of numerous enterprises and organizations and even entire industries, the introduction of the mandatory self-isolation regime for citizens, the fall in oil prices, economic recession due to the decrease in both demand and supply are only part of the problems that required a prompt solution. The reallocation of resources and the allocation of additional funds to mobilize the health care system to ensure its readiness, to implement a package of anti-crisis measures in order to support business and the population have led to the need to revise previous plans. The article provides an overview of the most significant changes in updating national development goals, strategic documents, developing (adjusting) sets of measures, tools and measures aimed at achieving them, made in 2020 and expected to be implemented in 2021. The authors substantively examined from the standpoint of conceptual changes the provisions of the new Presidential Decree on national development goals, the modified unified plan for their achievement, modernized passports of national and federal projects that are part of them, many of which underwent serious structural changes to strengthen the specification of the impact area.

Real estate market: new conditions and realities

The modern real estate market is very sensitive not only to economic and political changes but also to changing epidemiological conditions. The forecast that experts in the field of housing construction give today is very ambiguous. According to a number of experts, the growth as well as decline is possible if all factors affecting the market are observed and they may not be interrelated. The real estate market has felt the impact of the crisis from two sides – a drop in demand and a stop in construction. Before the pandemic hit different countries the housing market was steadily gaining momentum, recovering from the crises of previous years, the level of activity and price growth gradually increased due to continuing labor market conditions, low construction costs and interest rates on loans. The beginning of 2020 was a real test not only for the real estate market but also for the entire economy as a whole, the pandemic made its own adjustments. The current crisis has a completely different nature – against the general background of the deterioration of the situation on the world market caused by the fall in oil prices, the failure of the OPEC deal, the coronavirus pandemic caused a general economic downturn in the world and the aggravation of internal problems in various sectors.

Interbank relationship lending: A network perspective

Stable and strong unsecured lending relations among financial institutions have been credited as the mainstay of interbank markets and financial stability. We measure how stable interbank relations are in Colombia by calculating interbank networks’ survival ratio, i.e. the fraction of linkages found in consecutive networks. On average, about 57 percent of linkages survive from one day to the next. About 36, 28, and 22 percent of linkages survive a 5-, 10-, and 20-day period, respectively. Results are robust to the exclusion of low-value linkages, intraday lending, and non-banking institutions. A non-parametric test discards randomness as a plausible source of observed survival ratios. Preliminary examination of survival ratios during the first weeks of the financial turmoil caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and falling oil price suggests that trust in the interbank market was not seriously affected. Consequently, we conclude that stable and strong interbank lending relations exist in the Colombian market.

THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY IN NIGERIA: A SIMULATION STUDY

This study complements the emerging literature on the COVID-19 pandemic and provides direction, in the case of Nigeria, for targeting monetary policy response to mitigate the pandemic’s economic consequences. We simulate three scenarios: (i) do-nothing; (ii) reduce MPR gradually and (iii) reduce MPR drastically; amidst falling oil prices. The do-nothing scenario, although inflationary, would produce a marginal appreciation of the Naira/USD exchange rate. Gradual or drastic reduction of MPR would deliver relative price stability, but will undermine exchange rate stability and deplete external reserves. MPR should optimally not be reduced below 12% in response to the economic effect of the pandemic.

Dependence between oil price changes and sectoral stock returns in Pakistan: Evidence from a quantile regression approach

This study explores the dependence between changes in world crude oil prices and the performance of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, at the aggregate as well as sectoral levels for the period from July 1997 to December 2016. Quantile regression approach is employed for a detailed examination of the structure and degree of dependence for three sub-periods corresponding to normal, rising, and falling oil price periods. We found that the dependence between changes in crude oil price and the sectoral stock returns is heterogeneous across industries and it exists in both bullish and bearish market trends. The dependence at the upper and lower quantiles is found to be a common feature across industries. Moreover, the dependence and direction of the relationship change at times of structural breaks. The findings highlight an external channel through which fluctuations in stock returns may impede the liquidity of the stock market of an oil-importing country such as Pakistan, thereby affecting the domestic economy.

Shifting State–Business Relations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Post‐2014

AbstractThis study aims to explore how state–business relations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been developing following the fall in oil prices in 2014 and the subsequent increased pressure to implement economic reforms. The main argument is that due to a combination of factors, the positions of the established business community vis‐à‐vis the ruling powers in those countries have become weaker. The factors are: 1) economic pressure and necessity to reform since the 2014 decline in oil prices; 2) the generational shift and subsequent centralizing tendencies in the ruling circles in some of the states; and 3) increased geopolitical rivalry and antagonism between the GCC members, including intensified competition for foreign investment and external political support. Meanwhile the governments have acquired more control over commercial activities that used to be the realm of the business elite. Although these changes are happening to a varying extent and at a different pace in each GCC country, the trend is recognizable in all six.

Рынки труда и современные глобальные вызовы: кризис vs новые возможности

The article is devoted to the analysis of changes in labor markets under the influence of global factors - the fall in oil prices, the Covid-19 pandemic and global digital transformation. The data confirming the general orientation of the selected factors towards the reduction of previously created jobs in different industries and spheres of activity, the threat of increasing inequality (in the zone of greatest risk - young people, older workers who are women), but at the same time, indicating a multidirectional and ambiguous the nature of their influence on the structural elements of the world and Russian labor markets. It is shown that global digital transformation threatens low-skilled jobs and routine tasks most susceptible to automation, but and contributes to the creation of new jobs, leads to a change in working conditions and a combination of skills that ensure success in the labor market, the development of which should become one of the priorities of the education system.

SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies to reduce the pace of transmission. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), falling oil prices, disparities in wealth and public health infrastructure, and large refugee populations have significantly increased the disease burden of COVID-19. In light of these exacerbating factors, public health surveillance is particularly necessary to help leaders understand and implement effective disease control policies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 persistence and transmission.ObjectiveThe goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence to better understand a country’s risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed.MethodsUsing a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in MENA as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.ResultsThe regression Wald statistic was significant (χ25=859.5, P<.001). The Sargan test was not significant, failing to reject the validity of overidentifying restrictions (χ2294=16, P=.99). Countries with the highest cumulative caseload of the novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, and 303,109 cases, respectively. Many of the smaller countries in MENA have higher infection rates than those countries with the highest caseloads. Oman has 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain has 12.1, Libya has 14, and Lebanon has 14.6 per 100,000 people. In order of largest to smallest number of cumulative deaths since January 2020, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have 30,375, 10,254, 6120, and 5185, respectively. Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman had the highest rates of COVID-19 persistence, which is the number of new infections statistically related to new infections in the prior week. Bahrain had positive speed, acceleration, and jerk, signaling the potential for explosive growth.ConclusionsStatic and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policies with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts.

Predicting Crude Oil Prices During a Pandemic: A Comparison of Arima and Garch Models

The unprecedented global turn of events primarily due to the spread of highly contagious corona pandemic has led to a substantial fall in crude oil prices. A forecast for crude oil prices is important as oil is required for all major economic activity, particularly production and transportation. This study aims to apply two commonly used methods of Autoregressive Inte-grated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) to predict the WTI crude oil prices for the period February 10, 2020, to April 27, 2020. Such a comparative analysis of these methods in unprecedented times is missing in the existing literature. ARIMA suggests ARIMA (4,1,4) model while GARCH (1,1) as the best among their own respective family of models. And between ARIMA and GARCH ARIMA model is recommended for forecasting as it has a lower root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The study recommends using a mean based ARIMA approach for predicting future values in extreme situations.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Its Ramifications on the Economy and Future Perspectives—A Review

The purpose of this paper is to review the existing literature and updates on positive and negative impacts of the trend of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, since no permanent solution has been found. Data drawn from various sources in the form of daily briefings of health and economic experts, bulletins and reports from UN agencies and other agencies were utilised. The study serves as a contribution to insight to enable policy makers to brace for the unexpected as the world is unfolding to unprecedented in the new millennial. It was found that measures such as lockdown, travel bans, closure of schools, churches and Mosques, restaurants, and bars were adopted to control the disease in the economy, as adopted in other parts of the world. The disease harmed the economies enormously, including trade, investments, and the fall in oil prices. The use of different types of nose masks, veronica buckets and sanitizers has been found in the Ghanaian market. Nonetheless, the number of cases is still on the rise due to improper usage and contamination of nose masks by people and the discovery of new variants of COVID-19 in other places has also exacerbated the problem. Currently, there is an approved vaccine to curb the virus in the country, but only a few selected categories of citizens have received first jab and many people do not follow the laid down protocols—a concern to surmount the spread of the pandemic in the country amidst the fear of a third variant of the virus emerging.

Examining the resilience of UAE to decline in oil prices - the case of the insurance sector

The sharp fall in oil prices from $112/barrel in 2014 to $59/barrel in 2019 impacted many economies in the world in both positive and negative manner. United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been seeking diversification to reduce its reliance on oil revenues and expects higher growth from non-oil revenues in 2020. This study aims to examine the resilience of UAE to decline in oil prices with the insurance sector as a representative sector of the economy This study involves calculations and comparisons of financial ratios pre- and post-fall in oil prices in the UAE. Parametric test results indicate that while the change in investment and efficiency ratios is statistically significant, profitability, efficiency and gearing ratios have been quite stable in the period. Despite the overall slowdown in the insurance industry, the sector has been mostly resistant to the drop in oil prices. This resilience can be attributed to the ongoing efforts of UAE leadership to diversify away from an oil-based economy.

ДИНАМИКА СОЦИАЛЬНЫХ ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ НЕФТЕДОБЫВАЮЩИХ РЕГИОНОВ РОССИИ

The article presents an assessment of social sustainable development indicators for Russian oil-and-gas regions. Natural energy resources are one of the most important factors in ensuring the competitiveness of regional economy. However, the resource sector development leads to a subnational resource dependence and to a decline in the quality of life indicators. Natural resources could be a motor of economic development. For this purpose, local authorities should enhance the social and market infrastructure, innovation and investment activity, create institutions that support diversification and prevent the overindulgence of resource companies. The natural resources’ impact on the quality of life for Tomsk Oblast, the Komi Republic, the Udmurt Republic, the Republic of Tatarstan, and Samara Oblast was assessed. These regions have small energy resource (oil and gas) reserves, but mining creates 15 to 30% of the regional product. Extractive industries employ 2% of the workforce. World economy trends in 2008-2018 had a significant negative impact on the mining sector of these regions. Dependence on oil prices has led to a reduction in subnational budget revenues, the Gross Regional Product growth rate has declined, the poverty rate has increased, and the quality of life indicators have decreased. Demographic indicators (fertility and mortality rates) have also worsened. The social and economic development indicators in most of the considered oil-and-gas regions became worse than the same indicators in Russia. This fact indicates a high level of resource dependence of subnational economies (resource curse). Only in the Republic of Tatarstan the resource sector became the motor of the regional economic performance, despite the decline in oil prices. As a result, Tatarstan occupies a leading position in the rating of the quality of life indicators. The level of poverty in Tatarstan is lower than in other resource regions and in Russia. Tatarstan also has a high level of population growth, low unemployment, and higher rates of economic growth than Russia. The worst situation is in Tomsk Oblast and in the Komi Republic, in which the share of the extractive sector in the Gross Regional Product is 30%; therefore, the indicators of the socioeconomic development are highly dependent on the oil-and-gas companies’ performance. Low diversification, transport accessibility limitations, poor natural and climatic conditions, as well as a decrease in the income of oil-and-gas companies due to the fall in oil prices leads to an increase in poverty rates in these regions, increases the out-region migration of the working-age population, which reduces regional competitiveness. Thus, the economies of most of the considered oil-and-gas regions cannot be considered sustainable.

The New Industrial Strategy in a Context of Financial Contraction in Algeria

Industrial development has gained a position of strength in the successive debates on the realization of economic development projects, accentuated by exceptional progress of new technologies, such as innovation, creativity and entrepreneurship, with a tremendous growth of more innovative companies in terms of production, service delivery or simply concentrated on resell. One can, of course, invoke innumerable theoretical and literary arguments about the contribution of the industrial sector in the economic growth, starting from the works and approaches of the classics and neo-classics, particularly the most contemporary ones, like Rosenstein-Rodan, Myrdal, Nurkse, Hirschman, and many others, as long as the debate focused on the means and instruments to benefit States, provided that it is well managed. Algeria has been well engaged in the implementation of an industrialization strategy, through some programs and projects of revival of the industrial apparatus, in particular the model, globally recognized,” industrializing industries” in order to find alternatives for import substitution and the establishment of an industrial platform capable of raising the level of economic development upwards, and above. Indeed, industrial policy has become hostage of energy and hydrocarbon policy, as long as all investments and efforts have been made and directed in the promotion of the extractive industries, since the oil markets have created opportunities an for financing economic projects, leaving behind other components of the industrial sector, especially manufacturing industries. Taking this into account and in another effort to break away from the grip of the oil sector, the Algerian State turned to a new industrial policy and strategy, which will be more interested in the promotion of manufacturing industries, but this becomes relatively complicated and delicate, in view of the deterioration of public revenues and the possibility of drying up of revenues, as a consequence of the fall in oil prices, leaving, thus, puzzled economic decision-makers on the appropriate means of financing and accompanying this step. We will try, through this paper, to examine the planned and tracked modalities for such a large project, given the economic and financial context, which calls for greater prudence and the rationalization of public expenditures and their targeting.

A economia política do conteúdo local no setor petrolífero de Lula a Temer

Resumo O setor petrolífero tem uma vasta experiência com políticas de Conteúdo Local (CL), em particular na Noruega. No Brasil, essa política ganhou força nos governos Lula da Silva, mas começou a sofrer desgaste nos governos de Dilma Rousseff. A tentativa de repactuar aspectos dessa política em 2015 chegou tarde e, no governo Temer, sofreu um rebaixamento considerável. O objetivo deste artigo é entender a facilidade política e a rapidez com as quais o processo se deu, a partir de dois fatores. Primeiro, a tempestade perfeita que atingiu a Petrobras em meados de 2014 e em 2015, com uma forte queda de preço do petróleo e os impactos da Operação Lava Jato e outros fatores. Segundo, o desgaste ao qual a política de Conteúdo Local foi submetida, identificada como parte do problema, e não da solução, para o desenvolvimento brasileiro. A partir de uma análise das medidas governamentais e do posicionamento dos atores relevantes, percebe-se que a política de Conteúdo Local foi sacrificada no intuito atrair operadoras internacionais.

Sorry, You're Blocked.' Economic Effects of Financial Sanctions on the Russian Economy

How large are the macroeconomic effects of financial sanctions and how one can distinguish the sanction shocks from other aggregate shocks affecting the economy at the same time? We employ a Bayesian (S)VAR model to estimate the effects of the Western financial sanctions imposed on the Russian economy in 2014 (first wave) and 2017 (second wave). The sanctions decreased the Russia’s corporate external debt and raised the country spread, but their effects were confounded by falling oil prices in 2014 (negative terms-of-trade, TOT, shock) and rising oil prices in 2017. We begin disentangling the sanction and TOT effects with a conditional forecasting approach, in which we simulate pseudo out-of-sample projections of domestic macroeconomic variables conditioned (i) solely on the oil price changes and then (ii) on both oil prices and external debt deleveraging. For each endogenous variable, we treat the difference between the two projections as the effect of sanctions. We then apply a structural approach to identify sanction shocks. Our results consistently indicate that the sanction effects were negative and non-negligible across the two sanction waves, being sizeable for the financial variables (real interest rate and corporate external debt) and moderate for the real variables (output, consumption, investment, trade balance, and the ruble real exchange rate). We argue that the estimated effects of sanctions are in line with the theoretical predictions from the literature on country spread shocks in open economies.

Еще раз о «строе цивилизованных кооператоров»

During the transition to the sixth technological mode (according to S.Y. Glazyev) or the sixth long wave (according to N. Kondratiev), significant changes take place in the development of technologies and social division of labor, in the culture of production and society. Th article shows that falling oil prices, the coronavirus pandemic and heightened tensions in international relations (sanctions, trade wars, terrorism, fight against ISIS, information war, etc.) have exacerbated the global crisis. In this regard, the author considers new economic phenomena, in particular, the maker movement developed in cooperative network formats, which, according to some researchers, may lead to a “system of civilized cooperators”. The article analyzes the "new craftsmanship" movement from the perspective of the economy, politics, culture and management.

САНКЦІЇ США ПРОТИ СРСР У ЗВ’ЯЗКУ ІЗ РАДЯНСЬКОЮ АГРЕСІЄЮ В АФГАНІСТАНІ (1980 – 1988 рр.)

The aim of the article is to studу the sanctions against the Soviet Union imposed by the United States in response to Soviet aggression in the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. At the core of the research methodology is the method of a content analysis of historical sources, problem-chronological, typological, comparative methods. Main results and conclusions. The Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in December 1979 was condemned by most countries in the world. The reaction to those events on the part of the United States, which led to the escalation of the Cold War and the deterioration of Soviet-American relations, was especially sharp. The continuation of the policy of sanctions announced by President J. Carter in 1980 became the main means of putting pressure on the USSR under the Reagan΄s Administration. The stages of introduction of trade, economic and scientific-technological restrictions on the USSR and discussions about them in American political and business circles have been observed. Thanks to the efforts of American diplomacy, the US allies in Western Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan and other countries joined the sanctions. It was found that the main direction of sanctions was the restriction on the sale to the USSR of equipment for the fuel and energy complex, high-tech products and the refusal to provide «cheap» loans. The effects of the sanctions were exacerbated by falling oil prices in 1985–1986, in which, according to the author, could be involved the United States. The purpose of American sanctions policy was to force the Soviet leadership to make internal changes, as well as to revise the principles of foreign policy, in particular, in the «Afghan question». American sanctions had a detrimental effect on the Soviet economy, deepened the crisis of the Soviet system and contributed to the further technological backwardness of the USSR from developed countries. Scientific novelty. The sanctions against the Soviet Union imposed by the United States in connection with the Soviet aggression in the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan on the base of new US sources are specified for the first time.

A difficult start for the President of Mexico. Economic and social aspects

The impulse to modernize Mexico's economy since the enactment of the Energy Reform Act in 2012 has been significantly weakened by the radical fall in world oil prices that began in 2014. The new president, AMLO, who came to power in 2018, relying on the high support of voters, took measures to dismantle the reform and preserve state monopolies in the industry aimed at producing energy based on hydrocarbon raw materials and infringing on the interests of private investors. This led to an increase in distrust of entrepreneurs towards the economic course of the president. Already in 2019, the economy began to decline, accelerated in 2020 by a pandemic. Services, a number of manufacturing and oil industries were the most affected by the crisis. Imports of capital goods sharply decreased, export growth slowed down. The factors contributing to keeping the economy afloat are the new integration agreement with the United States and Canada (USMCA) and the country's relatively stable financial situation, which is facilitated by the IMF flexible credit line of $61 billion. The transfers sent from abroad by relatives provide significant support for Mexico’s population. But the president's policies require serious adjustments with a purpose to address the long-term problems of economic inefficiency, corruption and increased drug trafficking, and, above all, with a purpose to strengthen the competitive foundations of the economy through its liberalization and widespread use of the potential of private companies.

E&amp;P Notes (January 2021)

E&amp;P Notes (January 2021)

State regulation efficiency of food companies of Russia in sanction period

The article is dedicated to the new political course of the Russian Federation, aimed at overcoming the economic blockade of the countries of Europe, as well as the United States. Effective management of food enterprises should take into account the new economic con-ditions for the functioning of the food economic subsector. In view of the crisis associated with the spread of coronavirus, falling oil prices, the ruble situation, the development of an economic course to adapt the Russian food industry becomes paramount. Therefore, the purpose of this article is a set of government measures to regulate the dairy food complex of the Russian Federation, both federally and regionally for the period 2008-2018. An analysis of the dynamics of milk industry indicators showed that the level of self-sufficiency for the period 2008-2018 was below the standard: 0.90. The study correlated the economics "im-port" and "self-sufficiency". Based on the data, it is concluded that the Russian Federation needs global innovation in the food industry mainly to the effective management of the agricultural dairy subsector.