Expert Valuations Research Articles

Dairy cattle welfare – the relative effect of legislation, industry standards and labelled niche production in five European countries

The only common European Union (EU) legislation set up specifically to ensure the welfare of dairy cattle is for calves. As a consequence, there is wide diversity in how dairy cattle welfare is ensured in EU countries. A few countries have legal requirements for dairy cattle welfare, while in others, it is left to industry standards or niche production requirements, typically linked to various premium labels. In this paper, we compared animal welfare provisions in dairy cattle production across five countries with different combinations of legislative and other approaches: Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Firstly, we aimed to map the diversity of animal welfare initiatives. Secondly, we used the Benchmark method of expert valuations and weightings of the relative importance of individual welfare provisions. We found that Denmark and Sweden have the highest level of dairy cattle welfare provisions as measured by the Benchmark method, partly due to high legislative welfare requirements, followed by the United Kingdom, which has an extensive industry standard with very high uptake. Germany and the Netherlands, on the other hand, have lower levels of documented welfare provisions, and correspondingly a Benchmark score closer to a baseline defined by legal requirements at EU level. We also found differences in what elements of animal welfare were focussed on. Some initiatives emphasised fulfilling the social needs of cattle, while others focused more on space and freedom to move. Also, the countries with the highest Benchmark score had a relatively high level of production of organic and other specialty dairy products. We found the effect of national legislation or ambitious industry standards on dairy cattle welfare to be much larger than previous studies have found in either pigs or poultry. At a time when the EU is considering stepping up its efforts to improve animal welfare in terms of common minimum standards, the results of this study could have important policy implications. The diversity in the level of dairy cattle welfare standards found across countries may speak in favour of having shared minimum standards, both at EU level and globally. However, even among countries with a similar Benchmark score, we found a difference in the kinds of welfare provisions at work, which may make full harmonisation of standards more challenging.

Capturing twenty years of change in ecosystem services provided by coastal Massachusetts habitats

Accounting for ecosystem services across expansive and diverse landscapes presents unique challenges to managers tasked with navigating and synthesizing the social-ecological dynamics of varied stakeholder interests and ecological functions. One approach to this challenge is through expert based matrices that provide valuations for specific service-habitat combinations. In this study, we combine a literature review with local expert input to build an ecosystem service capacity matrix for the Massachusetts Bays National Estuary Partnership (MassBays). We then apply this matrix to a custom conglomerate land cover data set and a habitat connectivity analysis to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics in select ecosystem services of coastal habitats across MassBays from 1996 to 2016. In 1996, saltmarsh was the primary provider of coastal ecosystem services, representing roughly 60% of the total service capacity. More specifically, high elevation saltmarsh was top-ranked, followed by tidal flats, seagrass, low elevation saltmarsh and unclassified saltmarsh. This distribution of service provisioning varied considerably among the five regions of MassBays, reflecting the unique habitat mixes and local expert valuations of each. Although saltmarsh dominated the overall production of services, seagrass and tidal flats drove 97% of the service changes that occurred from one year to the next. From 1996 to 2016, MassBays lost 50% of its seagrass cover and gained 20% more tidal flats, resulting in a 5% overall loss in ecosystem services. Again, this varied among the five regions, with Cape Cod losing as much as 12% of a given service while the Upper North Shore gained 4% in services overall. We bootstrapped the analysis to provide a range of probable outcomes. We also mapped the changes in service production for each of the sixty-eight embayments. This analysis will aid local managers in accounting for ecosystem services as they develop management plans for their represented stakeholders.

О локальной согласованности нечетких означиваний

The paper is devoted to the model-theoretic formalization of the semantic model of the object domain. The article discusses the concept of a fuzzy model, which is a model where the truth function exhibits properties of a fuzzy measure. We demonstrate that a fuzzy model is a generalization of the concept of fuzzification of a precedent (semantic) model to include a countable number of precedents. In practice, it is common to have partial expert knowledge about the set of events in the object domain, making it difficult to immediately describe the fuzzy model. Additionally, since expert valuations are subjective, they may be incorrect and inconsistent with any fuzzy model. In the article, we introduce the concepts of coordinated and locally coordinated valuation of a set of sentences, and provide proofs for interval theorems and an analogue of the compactness theorem.

Considerations concerning CAVAT: what does its “tree amenity value” actually measure?

ABSTRACT CAVAT’s system for amenity tree valuation is based on planting cost, modified by size and several physical and aesthetic factors. It does not represent actual replacement cost. Its adaptation for aesthetic valuation is contentious, partly because of arguable subjective judgements. The supposed mental frame of valuers causes serious miscalculation of unit value, because installation cost is divided by current basal area, not predicted lifetime basal area. Deriving an “annual unit value” offers a way to circumvent this problem. Which basket of services is valued is unclear. The value offers a possible starting point in negotiating compensation, but not “a market price” for amenity trees. While some problems are endemic to expert valuations, others are specific to this system. Identifying them might help in revising the system, to provide a value both rational and reasonable.

Multi-person and multi-criteria decision making with the induced probabilistic ordered weighted average distance

This paper presents a new approach for selecting suppliers of products or services, specifically with respect to complex decisions that require evaluating different business characteristics to ensure their suitability and to meet the conditions defined in the recruitment process. To address this type of problem, this study presents the multi-person multi-criteria induced ordered weighted average distance (MP-MC-IOWAD) operator, which is an extension of the OWA operators that includes the notion of distances to multiple criteria and expert valuations. Thus, this work introduces new distance measures that can aggregate the information with probabilistic information and consider the attitudinal character of the decision maker. Further extensions are developed using probabilities to form the induced probabilistic ordered weighted average distance (IPOWAD) operator. An example in the management of insurance policies is presented, where the selection of insurance companies is very complex and requires the consideration of subjective criteria by experts in decision making.

Ecosystem services provision today and in the past: a comparative study in two Baltic lagoons

The European Biodiversity Strategy asks EU Member States for an assessment, mapping and valuing of Ecosystem Services (ES). While terrestrial ES concept is advanced and different tools are available, they are largely lacking for coastal and marine systems. We develop a stepwise methodological process to assess ES in coastal and marine systems which we name Marine Ecosystem Services Assessment Tool. We applied it to two large Baltic lagoons, the Szczecin and the Curonian Lagoons demonstrating a quantitative and qualitative assessment approach. Firstly, an initial status is defined reflecting, according to the European Water Framework Directive, a past situation when the ecosystems where in a so called good ecological state. In both Baltic lagoons, this refers to a situation around 1960. Secondly, a present state is defined, assessed and compared to the initial status. Increasing anthropogenic impacts in Szczecin Lagoon caused an overall decrease ecological status which may influence the system’s ability to provide services. Assessing ES changes semi-quantitatively via 39 indicators and 22 services, we show a decrease in provisioning and regulating and maintenance and an increase of cultural services’ provision. According to 15 expert valuations, the Curonian Lagoon displays no changes in provisioning but an increase in regulating and maintenance and cultural service provision. We discuss how these results can serve different marine management approaches and support different polices. Through our application we show how the tool can be used to assess ES changes over time and thus provide key information on sustainable use and ES for future generations.

The validity of the 4-Skills Scan A double-validation study.

Adequate gross motor skills are an essential aspect of a child's healthy development. Where physical education (PE) is part of the primary school curriculum, a strong curriculum-based emphasis on evaluation and support of motor skill development in PE is apparent. Monitoring motor development is then a task for the PE teacher. To fulfill this task, teachers need adequate tools. The 4-Skills Scan is a quick and easily manageable gross motor skill instrument; however, its validity has never been assessed. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the construct and concurrent validity of both 4-Skills Scans (version 2007 and version 2015). A total of 212 primary school children (6-12years old) was requested to participate in both versions of the 4-Skills Scan. For assessing construct validity, children covered an obstacle course with video recordings for observation by an expert panel. For concurrent validity, a comparison was made with the M-ABC-2, by calculating Pearson correlations. Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to determine the contribution of each subscale to the construct of gross motor skills, according to the M-ABC-2 and the expert panel. Correlations between the 4-Skills Scans and expert valuations were moderate, with coefficients of .47 (version 2007) and .46 (version 2015). Correlations between the 4-Skills Scans and the M-ABC-2 (gross) were moderate (.56) for version 2007 and high (.64) for version 2015. It is concluded that both versions of the 4-Skills Scans are satisfactory valid instruments for assessing gross motor skills during PE lessons.

Using discrete fuzzy numbers in the aggregation of incomplete qualitative information

In this article discrete fuzzy numbers are used to model complete and incomplete qualitative information and some methods to aggregate this kind of information are proposed. When the support of discrete fuzzy numbers is a closed interval of the chain Ln={0,1,…,n}, they can be interpreted as linguistic expert valuations that increase the flexibility of the elicitation of qualitative information based on linguistic terms. On the other hand, when the support is not an interval of Ln, the corresponding discrete fuzzy number can be interpreted as an incomplete linguistic expert valuation. In order to aggregate this kind of information, we propose two different methods. One of them deals with the construction of aggregation functions on the set of discrete fuzzy numbers from discrete aggregation functions defined on Ln. The other one presents several procedures for estimating the missing information based on the so-called discrete associations. Finally, the proposed aggregation methods are used in a multi-expert decision making problem and a concrete example is given.

Opening Up the Water Poverty Index—Co-Producing Knowledge on the Capacity for Community Water Management Using the Water Prosperity Index

The Water Poverty Index is a tool enabling a multisectoral description of the water situation in an area or region. Many aspects of a society's capacity to manage water, however, require qualitative and explorative approaches. Additionally, the perceptions of “the water poor” themselves may differ substantially from expert valuations built into the Water Poverty Index. The aim of this article is to open up the Water Poverty Index with a special focus on the capacity to manage water in a robust way. This is done through a process of participatory research and by transforming the Water Poverty Index into a Water Prosperity Index using a local community in central India as example. By opening up the assessment process, issues empirically identified by community members, researchers, and local nongovernmental organization (NGO) staff can be discussed and qualitatively assessed, resulting in an improved knowledge of the water situation and an approach for participatory planning.

Intelligence as a Main Way to Ensure Universal Sustainability of Country’s Development

The paper aims to analyse and propose ways of measuring the synergistic effect that resource allocation to intelligence assets (activities) can have on country’s sustainable development and its subsystems. The methodology of adequate portfolio is used in order to determine the optimal structure of resources distributed to each group of intelligence assets - planning and data mining, analytical processing and reporting. Applying the proposed methodology and using expert valuations, the synergistic effect on sustainability is measured and expressed in terms of value added/resources saved, their reliability and riskiness. Moreover, this effect impacts all the subsystems in the general scheme of country sustainability, and, in turn, each subsystem can positively influence business value in the particular field of activity.

Aggregation functions on the set of discrete fuzzy numbers defined from a pair of discrete aggregations

In this paper we propose a method to construct aggregation functions on the set of discrete fuzzy numbers whose support is a set of consecutive natural numbers from a couple of discrete aggregation functions. The interest on these discrete fuzzy numbers lies on the fact that they can be interpreted as linguistic expert valuations that increase the flexibility of the elicitation of qualitative information based on linguistic terms. Finally, a linguistic decision making model based on a pair of aggregation functions defined on discrete fuzzy numbers is given.

Establishing disability weights from pairwise comparisons for a US burden of disease study.

To determine valid and reliable disability weights for a U.S. burden of disease study, a convenience sample of 68 clinical experts was recruited, including representatives from over 20 NIH institutes and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Experts were given various health state valuation tasks including pairwise comparison, ranking, and Person Trade Off. Materials consisted of standardized descriptions of 11 attributes per health state (Classification and Measurement System of Functional Health, CLAMES). Attributes comprised up to 5 ordinal levels of disability. All states were displayed either with or without health state labels. Health state descriptions were taken from an existing comprehensive Canadian system. Conditional Logistic (CLR) and Probit Regression (PR) were used to derive disability weights. CLR and PR converged in yielding stable regression weights to construct disability weights, with a correlation of 0.816. The overall test-retest reliability amounted to 92.5% identical decisions. No significant difference was found for the presentation of health states with or without labels. A comparison of the expert valuations from our study with a standard gamble based valuation in the general population resulted in agreement of r = 0.61. The chosen methodology yielded valid and reliable and disability weights. As it is based on a modularized set of attributes, this methodology will allow derivation of disability weights on the basis of existing descriptions using the CLAMES.

Trastorno por estrés postraumático en la práctica médico-legal

The present work tries to analyze the phenomenon of the posttraumatic stress disorder from the point of view of specialists. Since joining the DSM classification as a nosologic entity, the clinical and social repercussions have been wide, as well as the discussion regarding the thought on the lines of causality of mental disorders. Perhaps this is the mental disorder that could generate the greatest difficulty when it comes to establishing an expert valuation, given its characteristics and the possible factors that could determine its appearance.The text is divided into different paragraphs which consecutively analyze the conceptual evolution of the term and the diagnostic criteria most in use at present in accordance with the DSM and CIE criteria; analyzes the risk factors; establishes the diagnostic methods and provides guidance on the meeting of criteria when conducting expert valuations.

Fuzzy-probabilistic aggregations in the discrete covering problem

In this paper, a new criterion is introduced for the discrete covering problem. In this criterion, the a priori information represented by a fuzzy measure and a misbelief distribution on alternatives are condensed by aggregation instruments. Using the Dempster–Shafer belief structure and representations of fuzzy measures through associated probabilities, several variants of a new criterion for the discrete covering problem are constructed based on aggregations by two types of the most typical value, namely, monotone expectation and fuzzy expected value. A bicriterial problem is obtained using one of the variants of the new criterion and the criterion of average price minimisation. The example on the application of a new criterion is presented, where the possibility distribution on the optimal choice of the candidates (alternatives) is represented by expert valuations.

An analysis of private versus public firm valuations and the contribution of financial experts

This study investigates differences in expert valuations of private versus public firms conducted for transactions outside the exchange. First, we provide evidence for extreme reliance of the experts on private firms' reported earnings, despite a possible manipulation of these earnings. In contrast, experts valuing public firms seem to rely on other, non-financial statement information sources, even if the quality of pre-acquisition earnings is higher in these firms. Second, we present evidence that the contribution of experts to investors in private firms is questionable at best. Our findings indicate that a private firm valuation performed by a potential investor based on available information provides results similar to those of the expert. Third, we show that inconclusive results regarding the existence of a discount in private firm valuations may be explained by experts' compliance with the interests of the commissioner of the valuation. This finding provides at least a partial explanation for the private company discount, one that adds to prior standard explanations (e.g., liquidity) offered in the finance literature.

Do private firm valuations contain incremental information content over routine analyst valuations?

In this study, we seek to investigate whether private expert valuations commissioned for specific transactions outside the exchange contain incremental information content over public analyst valuations published routinely by investment houses. First, we find that public valuations are based to a larger extent on financial statements and market quotes, whereas private valuations tend to be based on other, non-public information. Second, we show that investors’ response to both public and private valuations is cautious in the short-run as well as in the long-run. Third, we provide evidence that despite the fact that private valuations have the advantage of time, human resources, and better access to non-public information, they do not provide different results than those obtained from public valuations. We conclude that while private valuations may be captured as more accurate and reliable, their superiority over public valuations is questionable at best.

On the Added Value of Firm Valuation by Financial Experts

This paper is motivated by the recent concern raised by the SEC and other Securities Commissions around the Globe that financial analysts are not impartial. The question addressed is whether expert valuations provide unbiased information to shareholders and other stakeholders, and contribute to full disclosure. We examine the added value of expert valuations and their relationship to insider holdings based on a unique sample of 44 closely held companies listed on the TASE that were appraised by financial experts for transactions outside of the Exchange. These valuations are part of the full disclosure requirements in the case of extraordinary transactions. Each expert valuation is assessed on the basis of pre- and post-valuation data. Our key findings are: (1) expert valuations are 29% higher than market values and significantly affected by insider holdings; (2) there is a systematic upward bias in cash flow and cost of capital figures projected by experts; (3) expert valuations are not impartial; while they are supposed to provide an independent expert opinion, they are in fact biased towards majority shareholders who hired them to value the firm; (4) in the short-run investors respond cautiously to expert valuation; in the long-run, however, the over-valuation appears to be followed by destruction of value that is related to the firm's ownership structure.

Independent Expert Valuations in Takeovers: Are They Biased?

The predictability of the opinions provided in expert reports produced in Australian takeovers has led repeatedly to public criticism. This study assesses the validity of this criticism by comparing expert valuations with the recommendations of target firm directors. The results indicate that expert valuations typically agree with directors' recommendations, with the rate of agreement being 95% for reject recommendations. Consistent with expert valuations provided in rejected takeovers being inflated, these bids are associated with similar premiums to accepted bids. Additionally, rejected offers that succeed do so at well below the expert̂s valuation, and prices in unsuccessful rejected offers do not increase towards the expert̂s valuation.

On the 'Value' of Firm Valuation by Financial Experts

This paper examines the added value of expert valuations and their relationship to corporate governance. The analysis is based on a unique sample of 44 closely held public companies that were appraised by financial experts for transactions outside of the Exchange. Each valuation is examined on the basis of pre- and post-valuation data. Our key findings are: (1)expert valuations are 29% higher than market; (2) in the short-run investors respond cautiously to expert valuation; in the long-run, however, the over-valuation appears to be followed by destruction of their values; (3) both are influenced by the corporate governance structure.

New Work on the Benefits of Environmental Regulation: Discussion

The research by Alan Krupnick, Anil Markandya, and Eric Nickell (KMN) fills a critical gap in understanding people's willingness to pay to avoid nuclear power risks. The EED model is based on expected ex post damages rather than expected utility (EU). Because the EED approach is commonly applied to environmental and industrial risks, KMN's results are of broad significance. Risk assessment experts often observe that people must be irrational because they do not behave in a manner consistent with the experts' model. Technical experts tend to question lay behavior, rather than their model. KMN turn the question around and ask whether the EED model addresses the essential economic features of people's preferences. At a conceptual level, the answer is clearly negative. The EED model does not incorporate the features of an expected utility valuation of risk: (1) risk aversion, (2) an ex ante context, and (3) differences between lay and expert judgements of risk. The KMN numeric simulations identify the flaws in EED that are empirically most important. With a first utility function, the EED and EU models give similar results if the same risk judgements are used; risk valuations are roughly proportional to the assessed risk. Expert valuations based on the EED therefore err to the ex-