Expert Estimates Research Articles

Model "Triple Helix" in Optics of Expert Estimates of Scientific and Pedagogical Community of the Russian Higher Education Institutions

Relevance. The model of " triple helix" is more than 10 years a subject of theoretical judgment and development of applied techniques of her assessment and realization. However, philosophical and sociocultural aspects of her functioning, and also reflexive features among institutional agents remain on the periphery of the scientific analysis.The purpose an objective of this research is the analysis of expert positions of representatives of scientific and pedagogical community of higher education institutions about separate aspects of functioning of model of " triple helix". Objectives: To reveal expert estimates of representatives of scientific and pedagogical community of higher education institutions about separate aspects of functioning of model of "triple helix".Methodology. Research is executed on the basis of existing techniques of an assessment of innovative development of subjects of " triple helix " and empirical methods of poll.Results. Among barriers and contradictions in "spiral" integration of institutes of the power, business and science / education on the basis of expert positions are defined: 1) for the power ‒ vertical isolation and low density of horizontal cross-contacts; 2) for business ‒ scientific researches are focused on short-term prospect, values of a private property; 3) for science / education ‒ scientific researches are focused on long-term prospect, the principles of universality of scientific knowledge, objects of intellectual property.Conclusions. As a result of a situation of civilization and cultural antagonism of social codes "traditions and innovations" the functional mimicry of institutes can act, is actually realized in morphology of values traditionally Russian bureaucracies – a paternalism – corruption. Such imitations can be characterized as the institutional mutations arising in the conditions of an anomy when there is a deconstruction of traditional values, and imperatives of innovative development exists it is only declarative.

Animal population decline and recovery after severe fire: Relating ecological and life history traits with expert estimates of population impacts from the Australian 2019-20 megafires

Catastrophic megafires can increase extinction risks; identifying species priorities for management and policy support is critical for preparing and responding to future fires. However, empirical data on population loss and recovery post-fire, especially megafire, are limited and taxonomically biased. These gaps could be bridged if species' morphological, behavioural, ecological and life history traits indicated their fire responses. Using expert elicitation that estimated population changes following the 2019–20 Australian megafires for 142 terrestrial and aquatic animal species (from every vertebrate class, one invertebrate group), we examined whether expert estimates of fire-related mortality, mortality in the year post-fire, and recovery trajectories over 10 years/three generations post-fire, were related to species traits. Expert estimates for fire-related mortality were lower for species that could potentially flee or shelter from fire, and that associated with fire-prone habitats. Post-fire mortality estimates were linked to diet, diet specialisation, home range size, and susceptibility to introduced herbivores that damage or compete for resources. Longer-term population recovery estimates were linked to diet/habitat specialisation, susceptibility to introduced species; species with slower life histories and shorter subadult dispersal distances also had lower recovery estimates. Across animal groups, experts estimated that recovery was poorest for species with pre-fire population decline and more threatened conservation status. Sustained management is likely needed to recover species with habitat and diet specialisations, slower life histories, pre-existing declines and threatened conservation statuses. This study shows that traits could help inform management priorities before and after future megafires, but further empirical data on animal fire response is essential.

АНАЛІЗ ТА ОЦІНКА ОБСЯГІВ ФІНАНСУВАННЯ ВІДНОВЛЕННЯ ТРАНСПОРТНОЇ ТА ЦИВІЛЬНОЇ ІНФРАСТРУКТУРИ УКРАЇНИ

Introduction. Critical infrastructure, including transport and civilian infrastructure, is one of the determining factors for the stable and efficient functioning of the economy and development of the state. In this regard, in order to organize the restoration and modernization of Ukrainian infrastructure damaged as a result of Russian aggression, it is extremely important to determine the necessary amount of funding for these works, which will provide more favorable conditions for determining the sources of funding, timing and appropriate resources for their implementation. Problem Statement. A wide range of damage and destruction has been sustained by a fairly large number of transport and civilian infrastructure facilities, making it impossible to determine their exact extent. At present, generalized statistics on the scale of such losses are mostly known. Therefore, the development of methodological approaches to building approximation estimates of the required amount of funding for the restoration and modernization of Ukrainian transport and civil infrastructure is quite relevant from both a scientific and practical point of view. Purpose. To develop a mathematical model and an appropriate algorithm for calculating an approximation of the required amount of funding for the restoration and modernization of transport and civil infrastructure. To analyze the data on the extent of their destruction and damage caused by the Russian aggression. Materials and Methods. Statistical data and generalized estimates of the extent of damage and destruction of Ukraine's transport and civilian infrastructure. Expert estimates of the costs of restoring infrastructure. Methods of mathematical modeling, systematic and statistical analysis of losses to the country's economy. Results. The data on the volume of destruction and damage to the main objects of transport and civil infrastructure of Ukraine were analyzed. On the basis of the proposed approach, approximations of the amount of funding required for their restoration are calculated. Conclusion. The results of the study show that direct costs for the restoration of transport and civil infrastructure will amount to more than $ 252.2 billion, and, accordingly, indirect costs, taking into account the coefficient of 1.2 – $ 302.6 billion. Thus, in the coming years, it is necessary to ensure the implementation of modernization and restoration of Ukrainian infrastructure totaling more than $ 554.8 billion.

State of organization of the organs transplantation in Ukraine

Objective. To study up the organization state of the organs transplantation in Ukraine, using the expert estimation and in accordance to SWAT–analysis.
 Materials and methods. To achieve the objective established 21 experts were incorporated into the investigation. The expert group consisted of 10 physicians–cardiosurgeons, 7 health care organizers, chiefs of the health care institutions and 4 scientific staff members, who have got experience in the health care practice. The SWAT–analysis procedure was applied as well. Among other, the general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis, summation, interpretation of scientific data, as well as systematic approach were used.
 Results. The state of organization of the organs transplantation was determined in accordance to the expert estimation and the SWOT–analysis. There was established, that the system of the organ transplantation is functioning in Ukraine in the absence of the most principal organization elements, what cannot make its work qualitative.
 Conclusion. The data obtained have confirmed, that the organs transplantation sphere in Ukraine is a young medical discipline and it is much more would be done for its development.

The q-rung fuzzy LOPCOW-VIKOR model to assess the role of unmanned aerial vehicles for precision agriculture realization in the Agri-Food 4.0 era.

Smart agriculture is gaining a lot of attention recently, owing to technological advancement and promotion of sustainable habits. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) play a crucial role in smart agriculture by aiding in different phases of agriculture. The contribution of UAVs to sustainable and precision agriculture is a critical and challenging issue to be taken into account, particularly for smallholder farmers in order to save time and money, and improve their agricultural skills. Thence, this study targets to propose an integrated group decision-making framework to determine the best agricultural UAV. Previous studies on UAV evaluation, (i) could not model uncertainty effectively, (ii) weights of experts are not methodically determined; (iii) importance of experts and criteria types are not considered during criteria weight calculation, and (iv) personalized ranking of UAVs is lacking along with consideration to dual weight entities. Herein, nine critical selection criteria are identified, drawing upon the relevant literature and experts' opinions, and five extant UAVs are considered for evaluation. To circumvent the gaps, in this work, a new integrated framework is developed considering q-rung orthopair fuzzy numbers (q-ROFNs) for apt UAV selection. Specifically, methodical estimation of experts' weights is achieved by presenting the regret measure. Further, weighted logarithmic percentage change-driven objective weighting (LOPCOW) technique is formulated for criteria weight calculation, and an algorithm for personalized ranking of UAVs is presented with visekriterijumska optimizacija i kompromisno resenje (VIKOR) approach combined with Copeland strategy. The findings show that the foremost criteria in agricultural UAV selection are "camera," "power system," and "radar system," respectively. Further, it is inferred that the most promising UAV is the DJ AGRAS T30. Since the applicability of UAV in agriculture will get inevitable, the developed framework can be an effective decision support system for farmers, managers, policymakers, and other stakeholders.

Study of the underground tunnel planning. Cognitive modelling

A study of the underground tunnel planning reliability for megacities is proposed based on the use of foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies. Using the foresight methodology allows, with the help of expert estimation procedures, to identify critical technologies and build alternatives of scenarios with quantitative characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario, cognitive modeling is used, which allows to build causal relationships based on knowledge and experience, understand and analyze the behavior of a complex system for a strategic perspective with a large number of interconnections and interdependencies. The suggested study allows the reliability planning of underground tunnels on the basis of reasonable scenarios selection and justification of their creation priority.

An Increase in the Energy Efficiency of a New Design of Pumps for Nuclear Power Plants

The reliability of pumping units at nuclear power plants (NPPs) is critical in terms of their energy efficiency and safety. Remarkably, WWER-1000 reactors at Ukrainian NPPs are equipped with outdated pumping units that have already served their full-service life. This fact leads to an urgent need to develop a new, more efficient pump. In the article, a promising pump, ACNA 600-35, was developed. It was designed to increase the energy efficiency of pumps TX 800/70/8-K-2E, applied at the holding pool and the industrial circuit of the nuclear reactor. Since these pumps should be imported from the monopoly suppliers, this affects both the energy efficiency of pumping equipment and the energy independence of Eastern Europe. The proposed pump ACNA 600-35 is characterized by an increased efficiency of up to 0.12–0.13 compared with the TX 800/70/8-K-2E pump. In general, the life cycle cost of the proposed pump is 15–20% lower than for the analog TX 800/70/8-K-2E. The design of the developed pump ACNA 600-35 and the related pumping unit based on its production at industrial facilities allows for further development of the industrial and fuel-energy complex, increasing the state’s energy independence and employment. According to expert estimates, the average economic effect from supplying the developed pump can reach 10 mln USD/year.

Optimisation of crop rotations: A case study for corn growing practices in forest-steppe of Ukraine

The formation of optimal crop rotations is virtually unsolvable from the standpoint of the classical methodology of experimental research. Here, we deal with a mathematical model based on expert estimates of “predecessor-crop” pairs’ efficiency created for the conditions of irrigation in the forest-steppe of Ukraine. Solving the problem of incorporating uncertainty assessments into this model, we present new models of crop rotations’ economic efficiency taking into account irrigation, application of fertilisers, and the negative environmental effect of nitrogen fertilisers’ introduction into the soil. For the considered models we pose an optimisation problem and present an algorithm for its solution that combines a gradient method and a genetic algorithm. Using the proposed mathematical tools, for several possible scenarios of water, fertilisers, and purchase price variability, the efficiency of growing corn as a monoculture in Ukraine is simulated. The proposed models show a reduction of the profitability of such a practice when the purchase price of corn decreases below 0.81 EUR∙kg –1 and the price of irrigation water increases above 0.32 EUR∙m –3 and propose more flexible crop rotations. Mathematical tools developed in the paper can form a basis for the creation of decision support systems that recommend optimal crop rotation variations to farmers and help to achieve sustainable, profitable, and ecologically safe agricultural production. However, future works on the actualisation of the values of its parameters need to be performed to increase the accuracy.

Exploring fishing threat at fleet segment and subregional scale: Least expert knowledge and a resilience versus disturbance-based approach as conservation's tools for cartilaginous fish.

Based on an explorative but rigorous elicitation framework, we obtained the bycatch fishing probability at the fishing fleet segment level using expert estimates. Based on the knowledge of three scientific experts, we developed a new and creative structured method for smart and fast fishery-related risk assessments for species of high conservation concern. In order to test the method here propose, we applied it to 76 cartilaginous fish species (included in the IUCN Red Lists) and on five different fishing segments at both Italian and Mediterranean scale. The method produced qualitative results specific to the threat posed by fishing for each species and each segment with information between and within the segments. Based on the interpretation of resilience-disturbance interactions developed for ecological systems, the quantitative results provided reliable cumulative metrics, measuring the extinction risk due to fishing and the response to overfishing for the species considered. Additionally, the results highlight that the method perform best on a small geographic scale. Therefore, the application of this new method on other subregional or local scales where very few data are available (e.g., fishing effort) could be a valuable tool for the preliminary assessment for species of conservation concern. In fact, despite the absence of detailed catch data at local geographic scales, the flexibility of this method could help to highlight potential fishery-related conservation problems and thus redirect conservation strategies for threatened marine species such as many sharks and rays species.

The control of tax corruption: evidence from nonfungible token market in China

PurposeIn 2021, nonfungible token (NFT) has emerged and grown as a new digital asset and became a carrier for cryptocurrency holders in China. NFT opens the door of the digital world for creators’ rights and the realization of economic interests. However, potential problems such as money laundering, terrorist financing and tax avoidance risks have increased in China due to the lack of regulations. As tax control is an important tool used by the government to adjust the economy and market, this study aims to investigate the future market capitalization of NFT and provide value orientations to control the NFT market in China with a tax control approach based on the positive experience of other countries.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, least squares and expert estimation are applied to predict the future market capitalization based on the global market, which can provide an understanding of the current NFT market and the significance of its tax control. In addition, the tax control and interpretation of Chinese taxation institutions and structures are also explored.FindingsResults include the probable tax structure or policy that national institutions can carry out over different transactions. Conclusions show that introducing tax control to regulate and monitor the rise of state revenue and decline of illegal financing activities. Establishing tax control in the Chinese NFT market can provide a centralized guarantee to ensure the safety and legality of transactions and enable further progress.Originality/valueThis study puts forward new ideas on the future development of nonprofitable tokens based on blockchain technology from the perspective of taxation in China.

Integrity Detection and Supplementary Experimental Design of Semi-Physical Simulation Data on Aircraft Landing Points

For the semi-physical simulation test process of the coordinates of aircraft landing points, the concept of a completeness test for landing point simulation data is proposed, and a completeness test criterion based on field test data and expert estimation information is established. An integrity detection method for semi-physical simulation data, including data dimensionality reduction, data expansion, and regularization, drawing the envelope of the confidence region and establishing the completeness test criterion steps, is proposed. For landing points that do not satisfy the requirements of completeness, a surrogate model of the semi-physical simulation system was constructed based on a backpropagation neural network method, and the test conditions for data of this point were supplemented. Finally, application verification was carried out. Through the field and semi-physical simulation test research of a 534A aircraft, it was verified that the method can well realize the inspection of the completeness of the semi-physical simulation test data and the design of supplementary test conditions. It lays a good foundation for the fusion of subsequent semi-physical simulations and field test data.

“Flix rhymes with sh*t”. Exploring the potential for place stigmatization of media coverage of a declining industrial village in rural Spain

Purpose This study aims to analyze and assess 21 years of media coverage (2000–2020) of Flix, a small industrial village located in an rural area on north-eastern Spain, which has endured in these years a severe environmental and industrial crisis, with a strong potential for stigmatization of the place. Design/methodology/approach The research is conceptualized under the Social Amplification of Risk Framework, a theoretical/conceptual approach aimed at accounting for the huge gaps that often arise between public perception of technological or environmental risks of some technologies, products and places and the expert estimations of these risks. The authors studied the coverage on Flix by a local, a regional and a national newspaper through a content analysis where the corpus (1,524 news pieces) was coded for several variables, including tone, genre and thematic area. Findings The studied coverage was in general overwhelmingly negative and strongly focused on “bad news” relating to pollution and deindustrialization, although this was much less the case in the local newspaper than in the regional and, in particular, the national newspaper. Thus, a territorially escalated pattern clearly emerges from our research concerning the stigmatization potential of news media coverage for the specific case under scrutiny. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time such a longitudinal study of media coverage and its potential for place stigmatization is performed with this specific territorial perspective.

Testing the theoretical principles of citizen science in monitoring stream water levels through photo-trap frames

IntroductionMonitoring water levels of ephemeral streams is a difficult yet important task in hydrology, especially when studying minor river flows in remote areas. The installation of flow gauging stations on upstream tributaries is impacted by the lack of economic resources, by accessibility problems and unstable morphological conditions of riverbeds avoiding the implementation of distributed observation networks at large scales. This major challenge in hydrology may be addressed by eventually adopting image-analysis approaches that constitute an effective parsimonious river flow monitoring method, but the demonstration of such techniques is still an open research topic.MethodologyThis study focuses on the testing of a novel technique that employs a white pole “staff gauge” to be photographed using a phototrap (i.e., named stage-cam which is a high-speed camera trigger system). This technology shows to be particularly efficient for observing flood events that represent the most difficult scenario for streamflow monitoring. Furthermore, the testing of this innovative hydrological data-gathering method is performed by adopting citizen science and participatory image analysis to assess the value and effectiveness of non-expert volunteers to operationalize this novel method. Citizen engagement may be essential for supporting distributed flow monitoring supporting large scale image analysis algorithm calibration associated to a continuous series of phototrap images. The Montecalvello watershed, located near Rome, is selected for this pilot case study.ResultsResults of the conducted tests, involving the University of Tuscia student community, are presented toward the demonstration of the effectiveness of citizen science to collect valid quantitative hydrological observations, which may correlate consistently with expert estimates. To better interpret results, the authors consider mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute relative error (MARE) as synthetic indices to determine the uncertainties associated to voluntary observations. Low margins of error return positive feedback on the adopted methodology.DiscussionThis research promotes the use of participatory approaches for addressing an actual hydrological monitoring challenge. In addition, it fosters increased citizen knowledge and awareness of the importance and value of hydrological monitoring of small ungauged river basins.

Applying the VIKOR Method to Select the Optimal Underground Mining Technology

The selection of the most appropriate underground mining technology is not a simple process because it involves handling of a large amount of information about several potential methods. Multicriteria optimization approaches are proven useful tools for ranking alternatives, especially in cases where multiple complex criteria have to be considered simultaneously. An ore deposit is a complex system because of its geology, physical and mechanical properties, and hydrogeological conditions. As such, problem solving requires a heuristic approach and includes tasks involving expert judgement, intuition, estimation, and experience. Using a heuristic strategy to state a problem means that the analyst is placed in a position to apply past experience to a future situation and existing knowledge to new circumstances, as well as discover new avenues to creative problem solving. A complex algorithm was developed to pave the way to quality management of mining, by using the VIKOR method to rank various mining technologies relative to a set of criteria and select the optimum mining method that will primarily ensure profitable and safe mining.

A lean method for selecting determinants when developing behavior change interventions

ABSTRACT When developing behavior change interventions in a systematic way, it is important to select determinants relevant to the target behavior. Data is needed to gain insight into the determinant structures (the relative strengths of associations between determinants and behavior) and their univariate distributions. This insight is crucial to select the most relevant determinants, but at the same time institutions tasked with behavior change (e.g. prevention organizations, municipal health services) often operate under prohibitive resource constraints, which also extend to how easily they can collect data from a sample. This paper introduces CIBERlite – an approach that furnishes the intervention developer with an idea of the relevance of a limited number of determinants using short measurements informed by theory. The first study (N = 401) in a series of three explores the convergent validity of short and full measurements of determinants derived from the Reasoned Action Approach. The short measurements are used in the main study (N = 415) that serves as a proof-of-concept for the CIBERlite plot, an efficient visualization combining data of determinant structures and their univariate distributions for eight behaviors. The unexpected patterns detected in the main study led to an expert estimation study (N = 45), which shows that individual experts have difficulty in predicting how people score on determinants. This stresses the importance of conducting determinant studies and CIBERlite is a valuable alternative to do so if resources are limited.

Method for identifying trolls in online communities

In the article the problem of recognizing users of social networks, chats and other virtual spaces that are provoked by other users, inciting conflicts between participants of various online communities is investigated. In this work the authors give a brief description of the trolling concept. The relevance of solving the problem of trolling in the social communities of the Internet is shown in connection with the widespread aggressive provocative behavior of individual users in the virtual space, as well as the influence of such behavior on the psyche and general condition of a person. The paper uses the theory of trust functions to process expert observations, estimates or measurements. The proposed approach involves the use of this theory in conjunction with the input of a value that determines the conflict between two combined trust functions. The goal of the work is to test a new approach for calculating potential trolls using a method based on the degree of conflict of trust functions between different messages of the discussion branch in question-answer communities. It is concluded that the possibility of assessing the user’s conflict with the help of a parameter called the measure of the conflict of his messages in relation to the messages of all other users. To simplify the calculation process, the k-means clustering algorithm is applied.

Analysis of the expected development paths of Central-Eastern European countries between 2022 and 2025

The study attempts to determine the development paths of six Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Romania) for the period 2022– 2025 using a time-series complex development index developed by the authors. In addition to expected economic output, the index takes into account the level of human and technical infrastructure affecting the quality of life of the population, as well as environmental impacts. The autoregressive model used in the study is a single-sector model with panel data and considers the path dependence of the projected changes and the risks from external shocks. The latter are incorporated into the projections using expert estimates. Our analyses show that, except for the Czech Republic, the members of the country group under review are mainly on diverging development paths until 2025. Only the Czech Republic is expected to converge towards the EU development path.

Fundamentals of a sustainable future: Russian and foreign experience in financing critical infrastructure

Subject/Topic. Scientific article is devoted to the study of Russian and foreign experience of critical infrastructure financing.Methodology. General scientific (observation, comparison, measurement, analysis and synthesis, method of logical reasoning) and special (static analysis, expert estimates, graphic method) methods were used to prepare the research.Results. The following tasks were solved sufficiently to form reasoned conclusions and inferences: the matrix of critical infrastructure objects from the position of their role in providing sustainable development of the national economy was formed.Conclusions/ Significance. Russian practice shows steady growth of investments into critical infrastructure objects, which is connected with escalation of external challenges and threats on the international scene and political course of leadership to protect national sovereignty in terms of maintaining critical infrastructure objects in serviceable mode. The main place in financing critical infrastructure was taken by the state budget, financial programs of state banks and funds of national development institutions.Application. The results of scientific research can be applied by industry regulators in the formation of forecasts and scenarios of socio-economic development of Russia, as well as in the development of individual strategies for financing critical infrastructure facilities.

Importance of value analysis in domestic and international outlook

The value analysis is a well-known and widely used multi-criteria group decision-making procedure that not only looks for the cheapest, or not only the better, but also satisfies the desired and necessary needs at the lowest cost. Covering all important details of the project (product, service, procedure, process), the so-called multidisciplinary team of internal and/or external experts works together with the consultant. Value analysis identifies project functions and focuses on the most impactful intervention points. It then explores alternative solutions and creates optimal solutions for functions to cost-effectively satisfy and/or increase performance. Value analysis is now used by almost every large company in the world and is widespread in all industries. According to expert estimates, around 50,000 value analysis projects are carried out in Europe every year. Based on the provisions of the EN 12.973:2000 Value Management Standard in Hungary, the Public Procurement Act recommends the contracting authority require the tenderer to apply the method. This review paper reviews the process of the formation and development of value analysis, its fields of application in international comparison, the main methodological frameworks, its current challenges, and new opportunities.

Систематическое положение, статус, распространение и численность шахина в Казахстане

The article analyses information about the distribution of the Red-Naped Shaheen (Falco peregrinus babylonicus) in Kazakhstan from the 19th century to the present. Based on these data, the boundaries of the breeding range were drawn and expert estimates of abundance were obtained. The article also discusses the systematic position of the Red-Naped Shaheen. It proposes that it be considered a subspecies of the peregrine falcon in the new edition of the Red Data Book of Kazakhstan.