Expert Estimates Research Articles

Medical care payment improvement within diagnosis-related groups of patients with severe asthma requiring biologic disease-modifying drugs by regional adaptation mechanism in the Moscow Region

Objective: scientific rationale of changing approaches to medical care payment for hospitalization of patients suffering from severe asthma (SA) that require the prescription of biologic disease-modifying drugs (bDMDs) within the constraints of diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) on the level of the Moscow Region.Material and methods. For the federal model regional adaptation, the authors used the mechanism of subgroups selection in the structure of basic DRG No. 336 st36.003 and No. 139 ds36.004 “Treatment with biologic disease-modifying drugs and selective immunosuppressants” in the round-the-clock (RH) and day-time hospital (DH). Budget impact analysis (BIA) was performed to provide scientific and economic feasibility for the improvement of medical care payment for bDMDs proscribed to patients with SA within DRG at the level of the Moscow Region.Results. The analysis of cost of drug therapy and medical services per 1 case of hospitalization of patients with SA, that required bDMDs therapy, considering the classification criterion (international nonproprietary name of drugs and drug therapy regimens), showed 10 subgroups in DRG No. 336 st36.003 (level 1) and 9 subgroups in DRG No. 139 ds36.004. Expert estimates on the rate of hospitalizations and drug dosage regimen indicated for patients with SA were used to calculate the relative cost weights (CW). The highest CW was observed in the subgroup that received benralizumab in RH (CW=7.46) and in DH (CW=12.08) conditions. BIA demonstrated 110,103,901.53 rubles (or 31%) budget savings for the health care system of the Moscow Region.Conclusion. The implementation of the adapted DRG federal model in the conditions of the health care system of Moscow Region is an economically feasible approach to the organization of the inpatient medical care provided to patients with SA needing bDMDs prescription.

Ways to build text collections for training classifiers

We report on solving the problem of forming a Russian-language text collection (dataset) consisting of bibliographic descriptions of scientific articles for training classifiers. Various approaches to creating such collections are considered. The expediency of using expert estimates for assigning class labels is assessed. The known datasets are analyzed, the requirements for the generated text array are formulated, and the choice of the subject area (Computer Science) is justified. We propose a technology of forming collection in conditions of the shortage of Russian-language articles. To do this we use automated translation of publications (bibliographic descriptions) from available English-language electronic libraries (ACM digital library, IEEE Xplore digital library, CiteSeerX) with additional expert quality control of the translation. The bibliographic collection thus formed was studied using methods of clustering (Latent Semantic Analysis) and visualization (Principal Component Analysis). Training and test samples were compiled and «standard» classifiers (K-Nearest Neighbor Method, Logistic Regression, Random Forest) were used. Then we calculated standard quality measures (accuracy, precision, recall). The rigid and soft classification were carried out. For rigid and soft classification all calculated measures (for the studied classifiers) ranged within [0.79; 0.87], and [0.91; 0.95], respectively. The experiments showed almost identical results for Russian and English bibliographic descriptions (the difference did not exceed 2%). The proposed method of forming text collections reduces the complexity of the labeling process compared to the expert approach, solves the problem of the lack of Russian-language documents, allows formation of sufficiently large balanced bibliographic datasets for training and testing classifiers.

Surgical ambulance referrals in sub-Saharan Africa \u2013 financial costs and coping strategies at district hospitals in Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia

BackgroundAn estimated nine out of ten persons in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are unable to access timely, safe and affordable surgery. District hospitals (DHs) which are strategically located to provide basic (non-specialist) surgical care for rural populations have in many instances been compromised by resource inadequacies, resulting in unduly frequent patient referrals to specialist hospitals. This study aimed to quantify the financial burdens of surgical ambulance referrals on DHs and explore the coping strategies employed by these facilities in navigating the challenges.MethodsWe employed a multi-methods descriptive case study approach, across a total of 14 purposively selected DHs; seven, three, and four in Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia, respectively. Three recurrent cost elements were identified: fuel, ambulance maintenance and staff allowances. Qualitative data related to coping mechanisms were obtained through in-depth interviews of hospital managers while quantitative data related to costs of surgical referrals were obtained from existing records (such as referral registers, ward registers, annual financial reports, and other administrative records) and expert estimates. Interview notes were analysed by manual thematic coding while referral statistics and finance data were processed and analysed using Microsoft Office Excel 2016.ResultsAt all but one of the hospitals, respondents reported inadequacies in numbers and functional states of the ambulances: four centres indicated employing non-ambulance vehicles to convey patients occassionally. No statistically significant correlation was found between referral trip distances and total annual numbers of referral trips, but hospital managers reported considering costs in referral practices. For instance, ten of the study hospitals reported combining patients to minimize trip frequencies. The total cost of ambulance use for patient transportation ranged from I$2 k to I$58 k per year. Between 34% and 79% of all patient referrals were surgical, with total costs ranging from I$1 k to I$32 k per year.ConclusionCost considerations strongly influence referral decisions and practices, indicating a need for increases in budgetary allocations for referral services. High volumes of potentially avoidable surgical referrals provide an economic case – besides equitable access to healthcare – for scaling up surgery capacity at the district level as savings from decreased referrals could be reinvested in referral systems strengthening.

CLINICAL EFFICACY COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF THE TREATMENT METHODS OF COMBINED DEFECTS AND DEFORMITIES OF THE ZIGOMA AND ORBIT

Introduction. Zigoma and orbital defects still become an actual problem of maxilla-facial surgery due to limited possibilities to precise restoration of their complex anatomy. Functional unity of zigoma and orbit in aspects of eyeball support and protection increases requirements to reconstructive precision. The total and subtotal defects are the most difficult for reconstruction when traditional methods of reconstruction demonstrate unconvincing efficiency. Complex anatomy of zigoma and orbit, as combination of convexities, depressions limited an application of free or vascularised bone transplants for precise 3D restoration of the face. Facing this, new possibilities of reconstructed were developed, based on CAD/CAM technologies. Application of patient specific implants (PSI), designed according personal anatomy of the patient and manufactured by additive technologies, open new modalities to reconstruction in orthognatic surgery, cranioplasty and others, demonstrated promising results. So, these achievements and experience possible could be implemented for zigoma reconstruction. The aim of the study was to evaluate and compare clinical efficacy of zigoma and orbital defect treatment with traditional methods of reconstruction.
 Materials and methods. To reach this purpose, fifty-one patients, who underwent reconstruction procedures regarding zigoma defects, were enrolled to retrospective study. All of them were clinically examined before and after surgery. CT examination was performed before, 1 week and 1 year after surgery in all cases. The patients, included to the study, were divided on two groups – main and control, equal concerning age, sex and anatomical-topographic patterns of the defects. The main group consisted of 27 patients, who underwent zigoma reconstruction with PSI. The rest of the patients, treated with traditional approach (free or vascularised bone grafting, reconstructive plates or reconstruction with temporal muscle), were included to control group.
 Clinical efficacy was evaluated applying esthetical estimation of experts according to ranking scale. Additionally, frequency of complication and precision of reconstruction according to CT were analysed. Orbital volume differences were calculated for cases of orbital reconstruction.
 Results. Comparative analysis of esthetical results revealed higher quality of reconstruction in a main group. The patients did not require any further surgical procedures in 66,7% of cases, in contrast, in a control group additional interventions were indicated or performed in 85,3% of patients (p<0,05). Mean rate of aesthetic estimation by experts were 3,15+1,2 in main group and 1,96+0,8 in control. Follow-up period was longer than 12 months for both main and control groups. Mean follow-up were 20,4 ±9,3 and 26,2 ± 13,5 months respectively. During follow-up any kind of complications were observed between the patients of the main group in 14,8% of cases as well in control – 54,2 % (p=0,01). The main complication between the patients of first group was exposure of the implants, which was noted only in 3 cases, and was caused mainly extension of soft tissues above the implant or compromised soft tissue covering due to incomplete vascularisation of the flaps. At the same time the most frequently observed complications of the main group were total or partial resorption of the grafts (two cases), implant exposure (n=7) and limitation of mouth opening. Additionally, deformity of the fixators with bone fragment displacement was noted in 25,0 % cases.
 Eyeball displacement was defined in 66,7% of all cases. Mean volume difference in main group was 1,5±0,7 см3, when between patients of control it was 2,3±1,2см3 (р=0,032). The frequency of diplopia was equal for both group.
 Conclusions. The main advantage of PSI application for zigoma reconstruction is the possibility of the precise 3D restoration of its complex anatomy, renewal of the correct position of the zigoma. Relatively to the clinical tasks, PSI could be used as fixator or endoprosthesis separately or with bone graft procedures. In some clinical situations separate application of PSI as endoprosthesis may be consider as effective alternative for free tissue transfer procedures.

A European eel (Anguilla anguilla) case study using structured elicitation to estimate instream infrastructure passability for freshwater fishes

AbstractConservation efforts are hampered by limited understanding about how different types of instream infrastructure impact migration patterns and fish survival. We used a rapid, fully online IDEA protocol to elicit expert judgments for the passability of seven different in‐stream infrastructures to elver European eels (Anguilla anguilla) in Great Britain. Nine experts provided judgments via our online survey, followed by a second elicitation via email for reflection and adjustment of initial estimates. We found that on average, bridges were judged the most passable (95% passability), followed by fords, nonperched culverts, weirs, sluices, dams, and perched culverts (7%). Results showed a high degree of agreement about how passable bridges and perched culverts are for elver eels, but less certainty about other infrastructure. Thirty‐four distinct factors were identified that experts believed influence infrastructure passability for elver eels, including: the structure itself, hydraulics, elver characteristics, obstructions (e.g., debris accumulation), and vegetation (e.g., to aid climbing). We discuss how our rapid, online‐only variation on the IDEA protocol compares with the more traditional protocol, and how the expert estimates generated in this study can be used in future scenario building and connectivity modeling, with a view to improving conservation to support species persistence.

Evaluation of the Impact of Weather-Related Limitations on the Installation of Offshore Wind Turbine Towers

Weather conditions have a significant impact on the installation of offshore wind turbines. The rules for installation set clear limits. These limits are usually based on estimations of various experts and not on real assumptions and measurements on-site. When wind speeds and wave heights are too high, work cannot be carried out, and this leads to delays and additional costs. Therefore, we have carried out a measurement campaign during the installation of rotor blades to investigate to which extent the limits can be adjusted by using a tuned mass damper. The results from the measurement campaign—specifically empirically derived significant wave height limits—are used in a discrete event simulation. This study simulates delays resulting from weather conditions. Based on this, the total installation costs are considered. The results of the measurement campaign show that a safe installation with the use of a damper is possible at wave heights of up to 1.6 m. With the discrete event simulation, it is possible to prove that 17.9% can be saved for the costs of the installation vessel. In addition, the wind farm could be erected 32 days faster. Thus, it can be stated that the use of a tuned mass damper simplifies the installation from a technical point of view and is economical.

Methodological peculiarities of probability estimation of bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises in Ukraine

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to develop the concept of complex estimation of bankruptcy probability of agrarian enterprises in Ukraine, taking into account the specifics of agricultural activities.
 Methodology / approach. To achieve the purpose, the following research methods were used: abstract-logical (at disclosing the essence of the concept of “bankruptcy”); dialectical (for theoretical generalizations on determining the problems and ways to overcome them, drawing conclusions); expert estimations, comparative analysis, analysis and synthesis (at developing the concept of estimating the probability of bankruptcy); relative indicators-coefficients (at studying models for estimating the probability of bankruptcy occurrence); monographic (for in-depth study of separate types of factors affecting the probability of bankruptcy); graphical and tabular (at presenting the research results).
 Results. It has been proven that the discriminant analysis for estimating the probability of bankruptcy (the construction of multifactor models that summarize the most important financial indicators in the integrated index) does not take into account the industry characteristics of agrarian enterprises. The concept of bankruptcy diagnostics is proposed, which combines discriminant analysis and expert estimation of qualitative signs of a possible crisis of an agrarian enterprise. The indicators selected for expert examination cover non-financial factors – the risks and threats to agricultural production in Ukraine, and their generalization may specify the risk of bankruptcy occurrence. The scoring model has been derived by the method of expert estimations, the scale has been developed, which is combined with the discriminant one that will enable to bring the results of the research into the interval of the indicator for estimating the occurrence of bankruptcy.
 Originality / scientific novelty. The definition of the term “bankruptcy” has been improved: the author’s definition combines the economic and legal approaches to it. The main risks of agricultural activities in Ukraine have been specified and their impact on the probability of bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises has been outlined. It has been developed the methodological concept for estimating the probability of bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises, which takes into account informal factors. For the first time, in order to predict the bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises, it has been proposed to combine discriminant analysis and expert estimation of qualitative indicators that increase its risk in agriculture.
 Practical value / implications. The application of the developed methodology provides an opportunity for the agrarian enterprise of timely responding to the threats of financial crisis and bankruptcy in order to prevent them. The proposed approach can be used as an element of estimating the insurance risk or investment attractiveness of agricultural enterprises. In case of its adaptation, the methodology can be used in foreign practice.

Бюджетні модифікації під впливом економічних перетворень

Introduction. It is substantiated that the accuracy of planning the revenue side of the budget is influenced by: forecast of socio-economic development, in particular changes in macroeconomic parameters that underlie the construction of tax bases taking into account changes in tax and customs legislation and other factors; inaccurate assumptions made in forecasting incomes based on historical data or expert estimates, the more complex the mechanisms and procedures for forming tax bases, the more complex the assumptions and hypotheses associated with economic development; other reasons not taken into account in forecasting, including repayment of debts for previous periods, recalculation of taxes and mandatory payments, etc. The following approaches to planning have been identified: medium-term macro-planning, which focuses on planning the general macroeconomic situation in the country; traditional fixed-term planning; planning of economic and functional structure of expenditures; and planning based on budget programs. Purpose. It was found that effective budget planning should be based on the needs and taking into account the development trends of individual sectors of the national economy. With this in mind, the regression equation of the dependence of tax revenues on the volume of GDP generated in the most important sectors: agriculture, forestry and fisheries (x1), industry (x2), construction (x3), wholesale and retail trade (x4), transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities (x5). All of these indicators have been found to be closely related to the performance indicator. Results. The advantages of medium-term financial plans are identified, the essence of which is that they: 1) create a basis for forecasting the consequences of decision-making in public policy; 2) is a tool for medium-term planning of the fiscal strategy of the state; 3) ensure transparency and efficient allocation of budget resources; 4) form the preconditions for ensuring the stability and consistency of fiscal policy. It is proved that the successful development of medium-term budget planning is ensured by: the existence of a system of priority goals of state development, in accordance with which the activities of the relevant authorities are built and budget funds are distributed; the existence of a system of medium-term (long-term) forecasting; clear division of powers between branches, levels and individual public authorities on issues of state policy development and budget design; systematic application of budget planning tools; stable and comprehensive regulatory legal regulation of budget planning. Conclusions. Examining the components of the budget planning system based on the application of world experience and recommendations of international organizations, it was found that the most noteworthy is budget planning based on efficiency indicators, the practice of which is practically absent in Ukraine. It is argued that budget planning based on performance indicators can be implemented in three areas (types): presentation performance budgeting, data on budget policy results, goals or results are covered in legal documents as reference information for accountability and dialogue with legislators and citizens on issues public policy; such information is informative (approach, the elements of which are used in Ukraine); budgeting based on planned results involves planning budget resources indirectly related to the desired future results or past performance; direct performance budgeting involves the allocation of resources based on the results achieved.

Measuring the commercial potential of new product ideas using fuzzy set theory

The stage of selecting creative ideas that have the prospect of further commercial use and can be used to create new products, services, or startups is one of the most complex and important stages of the innovation process. It is essential to take into account expert opinions and evaluations, often vague and ambiguous. The study aims to develop a methodological approach to measure the commercial potential of new product ideas based on fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic. To this end, three calculation schemes are developed: the first two are based on fuzzy multicriteria analysis using Fuzzy SAW and Fuzzy TOPSIS methods, respectively; the third is based on building a logical-linguistic model with fuzzy expert knowledge bases and applying fuzzy inference using the Mamdani algorithm. Fuzzy numbers in triangular form with triangular membership functions are used to present linguistic estimates of experts and fuzzy data; the CoA (Center of Area) method is used to dephase the obtained values. For practical application of the proposed algorithm, the model is used as an Excel framework containing a general set of input expert information in the form of linguistic estimates and fuzzy data, a set of calculations using three schemes, and a set of defuzzification of the obtained results. The framework allows for simulation modeling depending on the modification of the list of defined evaluation criteria and their partial criteria, and adjustments to expert opinions. The developed methodological approach is suggested for the initial stages of the innovation process to facilitate the assessment of creative ideas and improve their implementation. AcknowledgmentThis scientific paper is published with the support of the International Visegrad Fund.

Sustainability of Business through Project Risk Identification with Use of Expert Estimates

Projects are a tool that enables enterprises to implement innovation and development activities and achieve the goals in the set time, costs and required quality but they also bring risks that need to be adequately identified, analyzed and assessed. Important tools that can be used in project management in the process of risk identification are expert estimates. However, little attention is paid to determining the accuracy of expert estimates. To verify the accuracy of expert estimates, an analysis of all completed projects for a certain period of enterprise that implemented them was performed. The purpose of the study was to determine the accuracy of expert estimates in the enterprise implementing projects. This was ascertained by analyzing all available completed projects and by Barnard’s test at the significance level of α = 0.05. The Phi coefficient of association was used to determine its extent. In the paper, we pointed out how inappropriate expert estimates affect the completion of the project within the specified period.

Clinical Validation of the Automated Characterization of Cone Size and Center in Keratoconic Corneas.

To evaluate an automated method for detecting the cone shape characteristics and to assess the cornea specialists' subjective variability of these measures using different maps. Topographic images of the anterior and posterior surface of each eye were presented to 12 clinicians in two different types of map: tangential curvature and relative elevation to the best-fit sphere. They were asked to mark the cone center and its boundaries in the two maps without knowing that they belonged to the same patient. The results between the maps were compared to assess the subjective variability dependent on the map type and the automated method was compared against both estimations to assess its accuracy. Considering the results of anterior and posterior surfaces, there was low agreement between the cone center estimations using different types of maps for 10 of the 12 cases (P < .05), whereas the comparison between the automated method and the two map estimations did not show differences in 11 of the 12 cases (P > .05). There was high variability, up to 55%, among clinicians' estimations of the cone area. The results of the automated method were within the range of the expert's estimations. An objective, mathematically derived method of determining morphological dimensions of the cone was consistent with clinicians' evaluations. Although there was high variability among the experts' subjective estimates, which were highly influenced by the type of map, the objective method provided a reliable evaluation of the keratoconus shape independent of maps or color scale. [J Refract Surg. 2021;37(6):414-421.].

A Novel Methodology to Estimate the Need for Proton Beam Therapy

Purpose: Currently, Canada is the only G8 country without a proton beam therapy (PBT) facility in operation or under construction. Based on experience from other G8 countries with PBT facilities, it has been estimated that approximately 5-16% of all cancer patients who receive radiation treatment with curative intent should be considered for PBT. To begin planning for a PBT facility in Ontario, a more robust and localized estimate of the need for PBT is required. Methods: An expert panel was assembled to develop an estimate of the need for PBT services. A step-wise approach was taken to: 1) identify clinical indications for PBT; 2) obtain volume estimates for curative photon therapy for select practice site groups and patient subpopulations (pediatric, adolescent young adult and adult); 3) develop and apply clinical algorithms to estimate the proportion of each indication that should be considered for PBT. Data was gathered from program level reporting and published literature. Expert opinion and consensus further informed decision-making. Results: 13 practice site groups for which PBT could have potential clinical benefit were identified: benign neoplasms, breast, central nervous system, endocrine, gastrointestinal, genitourinary, gynecological, hematology, head and neck, lung, other cancers, sarcoma, and skin. The largest variation in practice site estimates across subpopulations were found in endocrine, breast, gastrointestinal, sarcoma, and skin. Applying expert panel proportion estimates to curative radiation treatment volumes gathered from program level reporting for the respective practice groups and subpopulations (n=27,500), the estimated provincial need for PBT is 1,542 (5.6%) patients per year, with a lower bound of 364 (1.32%) and an upper bound of 4,246 (15.44%). Conclusions: An Ontario PBT facility has the potential to provide equitable access to comprehensive cancer care; decreasing long-term toxicities, improving patient experience and health outcomes. With limited published data in the Canadian context of an estimated need for Proton Beam Therapy, the methodology described provides a more robust estimate of the need for PBT. This methodology can be applied across other jurisdictions to assist with PBT planning exercises.

Regional education system: development characteristics, competitive environment and the need for state support

The modern system of preschool education is unique in its multidimensional nature of services since in a preschool educational institution a child is provided with upbringing, training, supervision, and care. The child's future academic performance largely depends on his preschool education. The article examines key indicators featuring the development of preschool education in the Krasnodar Region. The purpose of this study is to summarize the results of improvements in education, to determine the main guidelines for further activities. Today in the Russian Federation there are no mechanisms for a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the activities of preschool educational institutions; the assessment is implemented mainly using the method of expert estimates. Therefore, specialists of the education management bodies and heads of the educational institutions can compare the preschool educational institutions only based on these scattered data. The authors propose the following directions of state support for the development of the regional education system: 1) to determine the list of services on the market; provide a description and define their sourcing; 2) to develop an annually updated system of accounting for unmet needs of the population in preschool educational services; 3) to create a system for the development of entrepreneurship in the field of preschool education, given the support from public authorities.

Estimates of stage-specific preclinical sojourn time across 21 cancer types.

e18584 Background: Cancer progression rates following diagnosis are readily measured. However, the progression rate of cancer during the preclinical sojourn time is generally unobserved. Understanding the duration of preclinical stages (“dwell time”) would allow clinicians to better identify appropriate screening intervals for cancer. We therefore elicited estimates of progression rate during the preclinical sojourn time for a wide variety of malignancies from a panel of clinical experts. Methods: We used a validated consensus methodology (RAND/UCLA modified Delphi panel method) to elicit per-stage dwell time estimates for 20 solid cancers and lymphoma from experts. Eleven experienced oncologists (general and subspecialists) from community and academic centers reviewed literature on the natural history of disease and estimated in number of years (&lt;1 to 9+ years) how long it would take each cancer to progress from the beginning of clinically detectable Stage I/II/III to the beginning of the next stage in untreated adults. Cancer histological subtypes were grouped and experts were asked to provide an overall rating. Ratings were completed before and after a discussion of areas of disagreement. Results: Expert estimates and range of dwell time for 21 cancer types are provided in Table. Prostate and thyroid cancer were estimated to be the slowest growing, taking approximately 7 and 5 years respectively to progress through Stage I (range 4-8), 5 years to progress through Stage II (range 3-7), and 3 and 4 (range 2-5) years respectively to progress through Stage III. Esophageal, lung, liver/intrahepatic bile-duct, gallbladder, and pancreatic cancers were estimated to progress quickly through all three stages (1-2 years per stage). Conclusions: These findings summarize practicing oncologists’ estimates of dwell time in preclinical disease. Experts agreed on dwell times although ranges were large and differences in cancer subtypes were not captured. Generally, estimates trend with published data on survival with treatment: cancers with higher survival (e.g., prostate, thyroid) were estimated to grow slower, while cancers with lower survival (e.g., pancreatic, liver/intrahepatic bile-duct, gallbladder) were estimated to grow faster. These estimates could be useful when determining screening intervals for these or any subset of these cancers. [Table: see text]

Relational Theory of Risk and Its Applications to Game Theory Problems of Non-Numerical Economics

The purpose of the work is to study the foundations of a general risk theory. To form a single formal concept of risk, a number of definitions of the term “risk” found in the literature have been analyzed. There is a certain redundancy in the number of entities involved in the definition of this term. The necessary attributes of the genesis of this concept have been identified. Based on the analysis, using the instrumentation of modern algebra, a new formal, mathematically strict definition of risk is built. In fact, the paper proposes a new relational theory of risk, attracting only two entities to define the concept of “risk”: set and order of preference, inducing on this set the minimum structure of a semilattice or family of semilattices. The paper also describes an approach for studying in theoretical-risk setting problems in which there is no risk, in the traditional sense, in which the preference relation does not induce a semilattice and/or is a preorder. It is shown that in this case, when identifying a suitable equivalence relation on a set of outcomes, the problem can be reduced to a classical theoretical-risk setting. The second part of the paper contains an example of the direct use of a new relational risk theory in the study of nonnumerical economies. The problem of analysis of the situation of confrontation between two technologically unequal countries in game-theoretical staging is considered. We are talking about a grandiose space program - the organization of manned flights to Mars. The scales of the object of confrontation, the impossibility of quantitative assessments of the consequences of the implementation of scenarios of this project, make any quantitative assessments impossible at the stage of preliminary analysis. Therefore, only expert estimates of preferences at multiple outcomes can be used as initial data for confrontation analysis. Under these conditions, the emergence of certain risks of the project implementation for both players was demonstrated. During the analysis of the example illustrating the application of the new relational risk theory, a number of optimality principles considered in game theory were extended to the case when only partial orders are given on a set of game outcomes. As the methodological basis of the research we used the achievements of modern algebra, in particular the theory of relational systems, as well as the concepts and methods of game theory, such as representing the game in normal form, selecting dominant and eliminating dominant strategies, choosing solutions from many cautious strategies, as well as from the set of Nash Equilibria. The main result of the paper is the substantiation of relational risk theory, the formation of its conceptual base, the demonstration of the constructive nature of the theory on the example of solving a specific problem of risk analysis in an economic system described in terms of non-numerical characteristics. The material presented in the article is of interest to researchers in the field of risk theory and game theory, as well as to practitioners engaged in socio-economic and political forecasting in conditions of lack of information.

Specifics and Vulnerabilities of the Timing Control in Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems integrate powerful computing (real-time embedded system, operating system, applications, and Internet networking) and physical environment (advanced manufacturing cells, medical platforms, energetics aggregates, social and educational control). The reliable functionality depends extremely on the correct timing. Wrong timing because of buried malfunction or external tampering could be critical. The paper is some analysis of the vulnerable timing parameters that influence the precise processing. Expert estimation of the criticality of different timing parameters is given to support fault-tolerant design considering possible failures.

Assessment of the geometrically nonlinear behavior of thin cleavage type surface defects of anisotropic structure under shear

When designing up-to-date composite structure defects are allowable. In this case an important factor for design is in-service non-propagation of allowable defects. Thin surface defects of rectangular delamination type are examined in this paper. Defect structure is anisotropic and boundary conditions correspond to rigid support. Let us assume that tangential forces act in load-bearing composite panel plane. This investigation subject is thin surface rectangular defect. It is assumed that given shear forces act on the defect and its geometrically non-linear behavior is possible. For expert estimation of defect mode of deformation by Bubnov-Galerkin method analytical solution of non-linear problem is obtained. Expressions for rectangular panel membrane stress which appear in case of post-buckling behavior due to shear are explicitly given for mode of deformation estimation. In order to supplement practical significance of obtained analytical solution thin anisotropic panel design method based on post-buckling state with tangential forces is shown.

Looking forward and back

Wind energy’s contribution to primary energy supply has increased in the past decade, while technology costs have decreased faster than predicted. New work finds that recent expert estimates of wind technology costs by 2050 are around half what they were in 2015, implying a bigger role for wind energy in low-carbon development pathways.

Respiration of Russian soils: Climatic drivers and response to climate change

Soil respiration is one of the major ecosystem carbon fluxes and has a strong relationship with climate. We quantified this dependence for the Russian territory based on coupling climate data and in-situ soil respiration (Rs) measurements compiled into a database from the literature using regression and random forest models. The analysis showed that soil properties are a strong factor that mediates the climate effect on Rs. The vegetation class determines the contribution of the autotrophic respiration to the total Rs flux. The heterotrophic soil respiration efflux of Russia was estimated to be 3.2 Pg C yr−1 or 190 g C m−2 yr−1, which is 9–20% higher than most previously reported estimates. According to our modeling, heterotrophic soil respiration is expected to rise by 12% on average by 2050 according to the RCP2.6 climate scenario and at 10% based on RCP6. The total for Russia may reach 3.5 Pg C yr−1 by 2050. By the end of the century heterotrophic respiration may reach 3.6 Pg C yr−1 (+13%) and 4.3 Pg C yr−1 (+34%) based on RCP2.6 and RCP6, respectively. In order to understand to what extent the lack of information on disturbances impact contributes to uncertainty of our model, we analyzed a few available publications and expert estimates. Taking into account the specifics of Russian forest management and regional disturbance regimes, we have found that for the entire territory of Russia, the disturbances are responsible for an increase in heterotrophic soil respiration by less than 2%.

Reducing cost uncertainty in the drivetrain design decision with a focus on the operational phase

Abstract. In order to identify holistically better drivetrain concepts for onshore wind turbine application, their operational behavior needs to be considered in an early design phase. In this paper, a validated approach for estimating drivetrain-concept-specific unplanned operational effort and risk based on open-access data is presented. Uncertain influencing factors are described with distribution functions. This way, the poor data availability in the early design phase can be used to give an indication of the concept's choice influence on the unplanned operational wind turbine behavior. In order to obtain representative comparisons, a Monte Carlo method is applied. Technical availability and drivetrain-influenced unplanned operational effort are defined as evaluation criteria. The latter is constituted by labor, material and equipment expenses. By calculating the range of fluctuation in the evaluation criteria mean values, this approach offers an indication of the inherent risk in the operational phase induced by the drivetrain concept choice. This approach demonstrates that open-access data or expert estimations are sufficient for comparing different drivetrain concepts over the operational phase in an early design stage when using the right methodology. The approach is applied on the five most common state-of-the-art drivetrain concepts. The comparison shows that among those concepts the drivetrain concept without a gearbox and with a permanent magnet synchronous generator performs the best in terms of absolute drivetrain-influenced unplanned operational effort over the drivetrain's lifetime as well as in terms of the inherent risk for the assumptions made. It furthermore makes it possible to give insights into how the different drivetrain concepts might perform in future applications in terms of unplanned operational effort. Exemplarily the impacts of higher torque density in gearboxes, a change to moment bearings and adjusted coil design in electrically excited generators have been analyzed. This analysis shows that the superiority of synchronous-generator concepts manifested in historic data is not entirely certain in future applications. Concluding, this approach will help to identify holistically better wind turbine drivetrain concepts by being able to estimate the inherent risks and effort in the operational phase.