Election Period Research Articles

Public Opinion in the News: Examining Portrayals and Viewpoint Heterogeneity

ABSTRACT Although the news media both reflect and shape public opinion, little is known about how they actually portray public opinion in an integrated manner. A large-scale content analysis of Flemish print and television news, comparing routine and election periods, shows that journalists mostly refer to only one public opinion portrayal in a news item. When more than one public opinion portrayal is present, it is mostly casual inferences used in combination with other portrayals. Regarding the diversity of viewpoints, public opinion is typically represented in a highly one-sided manner and does not reflect nuances in citizen viewpoints.

Informal construction as political currency: A theory of ‘election-driven informality’

Incumbent governments commonly increase public expenditures prior to elections in order to curry favor with voters and boost their chances of retaining office. This study, set in Albania, focuses on a non-fiscal approach to winning votes: condoning, or at least tolerating, informal construction activities in the residential sector prior to elections. We term this approach ‘election-driven informality’ (EDI). This study provides longitudinal statistical evidence for EDI using a proxy indicator for informal construction. We hypothesize and prove that EDI is a reality rather than a mere perception - primarily for the 2017 election. That was when the government’s enforcement capacity in the construction sector was effective outside the election period. In a context where there is little moral value attached to law abidance, businesses or households that engage in informal economic activities might perceive a tolerant government as “magnanimous” and might be persuaded to support it in upcoming elections. From government’s perspective, EDI presents an opportunity for a version of “pork barrel” politics where “tolerance” is applied selectively or differentially to households, businesses, or whole regions.

Democracy and Elections amid the COVID 19 Pandemic: The Case of Burundi

ABSTRACT How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected democratic processes? This paper seeks to examine the dilemma of public health crises during elections. We investigate how the pandemic and government-adopted measures to curb the spread of the virus have given room for abuse of democratic processes, especially in countries holding elections. Our study focuses on the May 2020 elections in Burundi, as it was one of the first countries to hold an election at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Burundi has experienced disputes in previous elections that have resulted in violence. The May 2020 election period thus became an opportunity to examine if the country had learned from its previous challenges. However, as global attention shifted to dealing with the deadly coronavirus, not only have election cycles been affected, but leaders have also found ways to close off the process from observers and the media. This study finds that the COVID-19 pandemic affects pre-and post-election processes by undermining efforts to instill sustainable democratic practices such as elections.

Concepts People and Power in Russian and Spanish Electoral Discourse

Political communication becomes particularly intense in the pre-election period. Democracy receives criticism aimed to protect the interests of citizens. It is political parties that are responsible for a constructive discussion of their positions and motivating citizens to participate in the election campaign. Te electoral language is usually an emotional, connotative language, which resonates with citizens. Political electoral discourse is characterized by certain basic concepts, such as “politics”, “election”, “electoral programs”, “electorate”, “people”, “power” and others. “People” and “power” are the key ones, since they reflect the features of political process and are inextricably linked to each other during all electoral period. Tis article focuses on the study of the people / power opposition in the Russian and Spanish electoral discourse and identifes conceptual structures and signs of these concepts.

Communication strategy, change and the British Conservative Party

This paper asks how the British Conservative Party responded to changes in wider socio-political events and techno-cultural trends from 2010-20, under the leaderships of David Cameron (2005-16); Theresa May (2016-19); and Boris Johnson (2019- until the paper’s submission in 2021). Using secondary analysis of the author's earlier published work; and fresh analyses of evidence from news media and party-related archives (for example, ConservativeHome), the article aims to offer an indicative historical analysis of the party's development with a focus on key drivers of change, including Brexit and digital media in the context of the party’s communication strategy. Four key markers of analysis are used to focus the examination of several campaign case studies across a decade stretching from the 2010 general election period to the so called 'Brexit election' of 2019. The paper argues that, overall, across the decade, the party adapted to external factors, like Brexit and advances in digital communication; and a period of discontinuity in the party, from 2016 to 2019, contributed to punctuating the party’s wider evolution, following the fallout from the 2016 EU referendum and events in the run-up to the 2019 General Election.

When voting turnout becomes contentious repertoire: how anti-ELAB protest overtook the District Council election in Hong Kong 2019

AbstractUnder what conditions can voting turnout be transformed into a contentious repertoire? Based on the two case studies of the Umbrella Movement and the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill movement in Hong Kong, I compare how movement actors used the electoral arena to leverage their causes. I propose a new relationship between street and electoral politics – short-term mobilization that turns voting turnout into a contentious repertoire. I posit three necessary scope conditions for movements to perceive this electoral strategy as viable: (1) protest cycle precedes and/or overlaps with the electoral period, (2) election perceived to be competitive, and (3) closing of political opportunity window for street mobilization. I further argue that the tactics movements pursue in the electoral arena is conditional on the relationship between movement actors and political elites, and regime type. In democratic regimes where parties and elections are institutionalized and less volatile, movements are on a more solid ground to invest in a long-term electoral strategy with existing parties. Contrarily, electoral competition in authoritarian regimes tends to skew toward incumbent's advantage. Movement activists and political elites may seek short-term strategic mobilizations focusing on the election at hand rather than a long-term plan. This argument illuminates the common ground between collective action and voting, and thus bridging the two sets of literature for further engagement, as recent movements such as the Black Lives Matter and the Sunrise Movement in the United States and Navalny's anti-Putin movement in Russia are mobilizing their supporters to take on the electoral arena.

FACTS OF (FINANCIAL) LIFE: POLITICAL POWER AND RE-VISUALIZATION STRATEGIES ON SOCIAL MEDIA

Digital visualizations have seen an exponential rise in use by politicians, candidates and other political actors. Digital visualizations may be informative and engaging as well as potentially, persuasive or misleading when applied by political candidates. However, the ways in which different actors utilize them has yet to receive systematic scholarly attention. Informed by a comprehensive theoretical framework related to political power, digital visualizations and social media campaigns, I performed grounded qualitative content-analysis of all "cost-of-living" visualizations posted to Facebook during the 2015 Israeli election period, by both peripheral and primary political actors. I define two main argumentation strategies (Progress Makers & Hinderers and Re-visualized Economy), reliant on different narrative, visual, and information-oriented choices by different actors. An overview of my findings reveals digital visualizations as a meeting ground between the political power of actors, the rhetorical power of emotionality and the cultural power of numbers. I conclude with a reflection on revisualization as a means of expanding a fourth type of power, discursive power, wherein visualizations are used as an act of resistance by weaker actors against the narrative of reality promoted by stronger actors, relying on the rhetorical affordances of the digital political visualization genre toincrease their rhetorical power. Digital visualizations thus offer a uniquely agile tool for political actors of all types to utilize in gaining discursive power in the competition over election narratives in the digital arena of social media.

Comparative analysis of decision making regarding nuclear policy after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Case study in Germany and Japan

We undertake a comparative analysis of the decision-making steps involved in the nuclear policies in Germany and Japan after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident in 2011. We consider five factors to understand these vastly different decisions on nuclear policy. We found that the accident occurred during an election period in Germany, resulting in changes in the stances of the ruling party, whereas the political stability of the ruling party was not highly challenged in Japan. Economic and technical factors indicate that the cost of generating electricity as renewable energy in Germany has been reduced enough to replace nuclear energy. An interconnected grid, as a geopolitical factor, helps to import electricity into Germany, the net electricity exporter, in case of a shortage. Given that the economic, technical, and geopolitical factors do not apply to Japan, Japan should restart its nuclear power plants, unless the political stability of the ruling party is jeopardized by the public through the electoral system. From the comparison, we derive general lessons: (1) a social factor affects the political factor when it jeopardizes the ruling party; (2) mature renewable technologies with economic competitiveness in a country can replace nuclear power; (3) the geopolitical situation may affect the nuclear policy, but not as a critical factor.

Understanding Election Violence in the Philippines: Beware the Unknown Assassins of May

Despite election violence being a commonly agreed upon phenomena in the Philippines, there has been a dearth in academic research on the topic in recent years, largely due to a lack of reliable information. To address this, our article adapts recognized methods from studies such as Lindsay Shorr Newman's 2013 paper, together with Stephen McGrath and Paul Gill's 2014 research on terrorism and elections. To expose the timing of election violence, we tracked incidents relative to election dates for the period from 2004 to 2017, with the results indicating that violence increased closer to an election date, and frequency substantially increased during the 14-year period. This is the first academic journal article since John Linantud in 1998 to focus on the issue of election violence in the Philippines but through adaptive methodologies goes further, enabling national analysis. Furthermore, our findings reveal statistically significant differences regarding the types of terrorist attacks and targets when comparing election and non-election periods. We highlight complicating factors such as the majority of attacks being attributed to "unknown" actors and the complex situation during elections. The results also demonstrate that election violence in the Philippines is dominated by the New People's Army and the use of assassination. The paper makes the case for further research and the creation of a dedicated database of election violence in the Philippines and elsewhere, and evaluates the measures implemented by the government that have failed to stem election violence.

Are politically connected firms in Brazil worried about anti-corruption disclosure?

PurposeDue to the mixed evidence regarding politically connected (PCON) firms and voluntary disclosure, the authors seek to investigate the direction of the association between Brazilian PCON firms and their level of information disclosed in the fight against corruption. This study is conducted in a developing country with a weak judicial system where board members or directors with political connections can operate without any oversights.Design/methodology/approachThe authors empirically test our hypothesis that voluntary anti-corruption disclosure is negatively associated with political connections. Content analysis, Wilcoxon Rank and Pearson Correlation were employed in a sample of 30 companies that belong to sectors with the highest risk of corruption, between 2014 and 2016, the period of Brazilian elections. A sample of 90 observations is used with data collected from annual reports of companies listed on the São Paulo Stock Exchange in Brazil.FindingsThe study’s results indicate a positive and significant association between the level of voluntary anti-corruption disclosure and corporate political connection, confirming our second hypothesis. PCON firms could seek to improve their legitimacy after recent corporate corruption scandals discovered in Brazil where government members participated in the schemes of bribe and money laundering and embezzlement. Although our sample is composed of firms in industries of high corruption risk, which could increase bias, the results improve the literature with empirical contribution that has given little attention to the issue.Originality/valueThe latest corruption scandals in Brazil showed that companies were involved with government officials, corruption is one of the country's biggest issues for diverting public resources to basic needs such as education and health. The relationship between political connections and voluntary disclosure is an open empirical question, particularly dealing with anti-corruption. The study’s findings bring light on the subject, which deserves greater attention not only from researchers but from the society that is most affected by corruption.

Political Budgetary Cycles in Autocratic Redistribution

While political budgetary cycles in democracies have been rigorously studied for the past several decades, surprisingly little is known about electorally motivated policy manipulation in authoritarian regimes. This study analyzes how dictators strategically change the priorities of autocratic policies to cultivate electoral dominance even when election results are predetermined. I argue that dictators spend more money on redistributive policies in election periods. Using budgetary spending data from 63 autocratic countries between 1972 and 2015, this paper presents cross-national evidence of the existence of an electoral cycle in autocratic redistribution. Analyzing Afrobarometer survey data from 18 African autocracies between 2008 and 2015, this study also finds that citizens’ evaluations of redistributive policy fluctuate according to the electoral calendar. These findings contribute to the literature on authoritarian politics by exploring macro- and micro-level mechanisms through which authoritarian rulers improvise policy manipulation to cultivate electoral dominance.

Multimodal cohesion in persuasive discourse: A case study of televised campaign advertisements in the 2020 US presidential election

This case study points out the ways in which multimodal texture contributes to the dominant persuasive function of political advertising discourse. It is based on a dataset of 27 televised advertisements by the Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, aired during the primary election period between October 2019 and March 2020. A qualitative approach is adopted, combining methods of political discourse analysis and multimodal approaches to cohesion. As an investigation of conjunctive relations between words and images shows, the three dominant modes in this type of mediatized political discourse serve complementary and mutually reinforcing functions: the spoken words in the advertisements typically constitute the central cohesive chain, while written captions on the screen highlight selected political keywords and slogans, and the visual images illustrate and exemplify the line of arguments. On this basis, it is shown that multimodal cohesion supports the three pivotal persuasive strategies of foregrounding the candidate, propagating the political agenda, and polarizing public opinion.

Optimal lockdown policy during the election period

This study theoretically examines to what extent a perspective of political election affects optimal lockdown policy at the outbreak of an epidemic. We employ the SIR-macro model in which the incumbent government aims at optimizing social welfare in the periods before polling day to maximize its election result. As a novelty, the substantial uncertainty with regard to the true characteristics of the epidemic faced by the economic agents is taken into account. The results reveal that the optimal lockdown policy crucially depends on the time to the polling day. If it is not longer than several months, the government tends to introduce immediate and more severe restrictions compared to the no-election case. On the other hand, if the election day is later, the optimal policy is to delay launching containment measures. Interestingly, it is difficult to assess which strategy is better in terms of lives saved. While postponing the reaction may result in a significant rise in casualties, an immediate and strict lockdown may also be inefficient in restraining the epidemic.

Partial, falsified and adverse print media reporting: studying 2015 xenophobic violence

ABSTRACT South Africa in the 21st century has experienced a limping economy characterised by poor governance, corruption, massive unemployment, high cost of living and unhealthy competition to access limited economic resources for both locals and the millions of foreign nationals. During the period between 2008 and 2015, the country has experienced xenophobic attacks and perpetual factional fights between the locals and the foreign nationals. The country’s government linked the events to criminality and a ‘third force’ when dealing and disseminating information to the media. The xenophobic attacks have in most cases occurred before or during election periods with politicians and print media reporters opting for the populist and rhetoric route of characterising foreigners as a scapegoat to challenges facing the local population which is central to social ills and economic hardships. In the last decade, the country’s print media have been filled with stories that were anti-immigration and xenophobic which have resulted in the exacerbation of attacks by Black South Africans against immigrants of African origin. This paper draws viewpoints from government agencies and media reporters on how the print media narrated the xenophobic attacks of 2015 in South Africa.

The 2019 Nigerian presidential elections and the resurgence of the magic bullet theory of media effect

This study examined the continued relevance of Magic Bullet Theory, also called Hypodermic Needle Theory. It adopted the applied and survey research methods. The sample had 1,265 respondents. Qualitative analytical approach was used to discuss how the Magic Bullet Theory has remained a relevant interpretative tool for assessing the behaviour of media audiences during election period. Theoretical framework was anchored on Tichenor, Donohue and Olien’s Knowledge Gap Theory. The paper argued that the impactful use of media propaganda (particularly fake news on social media) during Nigeria’s 2019 elections has demonstrated the continued relevance of the theory in media studies, especially as it was observed that members of the main competing parties and aides of election contestants used fake news on social media to influence voters’ electoral judgments. Internet-based rumours of President Muhammadu Buhari’s demise and his “Islamisation” agenda, for instance, created such great concern that his party, the All Progressive Congress, exerted much efforts during its campaigns to debunk these allegations. Findings from the study led to the conclusion that media content substantially influenced the voters’ choice on who to support; and this vividly showed in the party’s dismal electoral performance in the Christian-dominated South-East, South-South and North-Central geo-political zones.

POLITICAL ADVERTISING IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNS IN 2011 AND 2015 YEARS

The process of modernization and democratization of Kazakhstan society demands the creation of advertising technologies that consequently promote the state’s strategic and tactical tasks and increase the level of political culture among the population thus contributing to the strengthening of social stability. Political advertising is a specific form of communication influencing the ideas of citizens concerning political subjects and objects. Society and political advertisement interconnection is considered in two different ways: on the one hand, advertisement stimulates the political development of a society; on the other hand, society develops advertisement technologies. Alongside this, it is a way of political communication with voters, target influence to learn easily during the election campaign. Political advertising shows the meaning of an exact political force platform, invites to support candidates, to form opinions about political force in people’s consciousness, to make psychological conditions to vote. The aim of the paper is complex research of the evolution of political advertisement in Kazakhstan and its peculiarities in the period of Presidential elections 2011, 2015.

Constitutional Idolatry and Democracy

This thought-provoking book by Brian Christopher Jones entitled Constitutional Idolatry and Democracy begins by retelling the moment when, during the highly disputed election period of 2016 in the United States of America, an elector waived his pocket-sized US Constitution before Donald Trump. The gesture was a symbol. A silent but taunting manifestation against the president-to-be, and his supposed lack of understanding of the nation’s ‘most sacred values and principles’ (p. 1). The whole scene and the events that followed (including the spike in sales of pocket-version constitutions) were an expression of a deeper sentiment common to, but not exclusive of, the United States of America: constitutional idolatry.

ORGANIZATIONAL AND FUNCTIONAL FEATURES OF REGIONAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNS IN RUSSIA

The article presents a structural and functional analysis of election campaigns in Russia. It is obvious that electoral campaigns of candidates are unfolding during the election period, which, through interaction with citizens, enlist their support and sympathy, which contributes to their achievement of the main goal - victory in the elections and, therefore, the seizure and retention of power. The election campaign, being a structural element of the electoral process, is a set of events carried out by various subjects of this process in order to win the election by attracting the votes of the electorate. In general, the electoral company, on the one hand, is a set of measures for organizing elections, regulated by law and carried out by election commissions, and, on the other, a set of actions of political actors involved in the electoral process. It was established that election campaigns have a typical structure, organizational features, political, administrative and socio-cultural characteristics at the federal and regional levels of the electoral process. Among the regional organizational and functional features of domestic election campaigns are: a high degree of intensity of the election process, the dependence of the success of regional election campaigns on the electoral activity of citizens, the orientation of candidates to the needs of the residents of the region, and a prompt response to criticism from the electoral community. The study of the features of the implementation of regional election campaigns is important for Russian reality, especially in the conditions of the ongoing formation and intensive development of the democratic political process in the Russian Federation at the present stage.

Blockchain Based Voting System

The Voting/Electoral system is that the backbone of Each and Every Country and Organization. The main goal of voting (in a scenario where the citizens have a right to vote) is to come up with their leader of their choice. At Present there are various voting is conducted in various methods such as Ballot Voting, E-Voting also known as Electronic Voting System, Missed Call Voting. Various problems are during Election Period as some of them include ridging votes/fake votes during election, insecure or inaccessible polling stations, inadequate materials and also inexperienced personnel.To overcome this problems we have used Blockchain Technology to make Unique ID’s for each vote.In this paper, we have tried to sort out issues faced by various voting systems.And make Voting more Secure by using various authentications.

Evolution of the political opinion landscape during electoral periods

We present a study of the evolution of the political landscape during the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections in Argentina, based on data obtained from the micro-blogging platform Twitter. We build a semantic network based on the hashtags used by all the users following at least one of the main candidates. With this network we can detect the topics that are discussed in the society. At a difference with most studies of opinion on social media, we do not choose the topics a priori, they emerge from the community structure of the semantic network instead. We assign to each user a dynamical topic vector which measures the evolution of her/his opinion in this space and allows us to monitor the similarities and differences among groups of supporters of different candidates. Our results show that the method is able to detect the dynamics of formation of opinion on different topics and, in particular, it can capture the reshaping of the political opinion landscape which has led to the inversion of result between the two rounds of 2015 election.