Election Period Research Articles

Party Primaries and the Quest for Accountability in Governance in Nigeria

Modern democracy highlights the importance of political parties both in agenda-setting and in displaying party aspirants from whom the electorates must choose. This paper examines the processes of candidate selection against the backdrop of demand for accountability from the political officeholders in Nigeria. Interestingly representative democracy builds on the theory that the citizens are in control of the process through which their representatives are elected but empirical evidence suggests diversities in the selection process. Nigeria has experienced about twenty-two years of uninterrupted democratic rule but each successive electoral period highlights a display of citizen’s discontentment with their representatives. This phenomenon raises a fundamental question about how their representatives were ab-ini-tio selected. There has been a paucity of research on how the conduct of party primaries set the contour for the people-oriented governance in Nigeria. This paper examines a candidate’s selection within parties and its implication for accountability. It argues that the structure of party primaries in Nigeria cannot but empower party bigwigs to impose aspirants that will undermine engendering accountability in governance. It argues for strong institutional mechanisms and civil society’s role to prevent elected representatives from doing the bidding of their godfathers.

Political elections and corporate investment: International evidence

A recent literature shows that the spike in uncertainty during political elections harms firms’ investment. Bridging insights from international business and political science, we argue that the effect of political elections on firms’ investment activities is contingent on the country’s electoral system. In particular, we expect the negative effect of elections on corporate investment to be smaller for firms operating in plurality systems. We test our theory using a panel dataset of listed firms around the world, and a panel of US multinationals. Our results confirm that during an election period firms in countries with a plurality system reduce investment less than firms in other countries. Additionally, we show that multinationals’ foreign investment is affected by elections abroad: their investment in a host country declines during an election in that country, though to a lesser extent if the election is held with a plurality system. Collectively, our findings provide new evidence on the role of political institutions for firms’ investment decisions.

The role of open data in evidencing and limiting political interference in public input distribution in Guatemala

Input subsidies are a popular redistributive policy measure in many developing countries to support climate change adaptation through yield stabilization and food security in a small-farm context. Nevertheless, the evidence of the effectiveness of the programs is mixed. One main point of critique is that these programs are vulnerable to political interference leading to misuse. In this paper we assess if targeted investments in public data and information infrastructure can reduce entry points for political interference. We present a case study on Guatemala in which fertilizer distribution was accompanied by an effort of open data provision and transparency under the Zero Hunger Pact. For this case study, we used a mixed-method approach. We show that political interference was a significant determinant of fertilizer distribution in the 2012–2015 election period and to analyze the role that information and data played with this regard. The paper closes by proposing four action points that could help to harvest the potential of information, data, and digital tools to reduce political interference into public redistributive decision-making.

Politicians self-representation on instagram: the professional and the humanized candidate during 2019 spanish elections

Instagram has become an important tool to contact the audiences both in commercial and political communication. Of special interest is the use of this social network by politicians, who can use the image to portray a humanized version of themselves: it is not the candidate but the person who is talking to citizens through impacting images posted on their personal profiles. The present study posits that Instagram is a key tool for self-representation. This paper offers a specific study about the use of Instagram by the five main candidates in the Spanish general elections in 2019. The main aim of this paper is to study if the Spanish candidates showed themselves on Instagram in a more humanized way during the electoral campaign. Departing from Goffman’s theory about the presentation of the self, a content analysis has been carried out as methodology, where Goffman’s concepts have been operationalized. The analysis was applied to a total of 473 Instagram posts, covering both a pre-election period and an election period. Results show that Spanish candidates tend to show themselves as professional politicians, but some candidates of new parties increment their humanization in the elections period.

Impact of demographic, political and financial factors on municipal transparency: a dynamic panel approach

PurposeThis paper seeks to identify some of the most important drivers of Portuguese local government transparency in their activities over time. The recent literature on good governance has repeatedly identified transparency as central to promoting accountability, preventing corruption and mismanagement and stimulating greater civic engagement. As local government is the main provider of many primary services to the population, evaluating its transparency is especially relevant given that misconduct or maladministration will have a strong impact on the population's well-being. Given increased diffusion of European good governance norms and practices, the authors believe the Portuguese case to be relevant across the EU.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop a dynamic panel data model to evaluate the simultaneous influence of both political and contextual variables on the municipal transparency index (MTI) in 308 Portuguese municipalities during the period from 2013 to 2017.FindingsThe results suggest support for previous studies that found increased Internet enabled transparency in municipalities with low levels of indebtedness (per capita), are more highly populated, are governed by left-wing parties, demonstrating higher levels of financial efficiency. The urban/rural status, measured by population density, is not a significant predictor.Originality/valueThe paper seeks to confirm earlier analyses of these same data over a longer period of years to substantiate the validity of those findings. This is important especially in the context of the political variable, to demonstrate it was not necessarily a particular collection of left-wing mayors, but that the relationship holds over time, across administrations, because the dataset covers two election periods.

The existence and motivations of irrational loan herding and its impact on bank performance when considering different market periods

This study first investigates whether Taiwanese banks exhibit irrational loan herding after rational herding factors based on industrial growth, profitability and credit rating are controlled in the model of total loan herding. Our results confirm the evidence of irrational loan herding for most types of banks except for government-owned banks (GOBs). Compared with other periods, the irrational herding behavior of small banks during the crisis and expansionary periods is significantly greater, and the irrational herding behavior of GOBs during the presidential election period is significantly greater. We then clarify the motivations behind irrational loan herding, including characteristic herding and investigative herding. Next, we detect the impact of irrational loan herding on bank performance. We find that the irrational loan herding of POBs, independent banks and small banks has more significantly negative impacts on their performance than does the irrational herding of their counterpart banks. Finally, we investigate whether irrational loan herding during specific market periods has a more significantly harmful effect on bank performance. Our results show that there is a greater negative impact of irrational loan herding by privately owned banks than by GOBs on bank performance during the crisis and expansionary periods, while the situation is the opposite during the presidential election period.

Patterns of violent attacks targeting journalists in Lagos, Nigeria

PurposeDespite the fact that Nigeria’s transition from military rule to democracy is over two decades, violence targeting journalists still remains a recurring issue. On this basis, this paper aims to examine patterns of violent attacks targeting journalists in Lagos, Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachThis study was descriptive and cross-sectional in design. Social disorganisation theory was deployed as theoretical framework. Data were principally elicited through the in-depth interview method. Multistage sampling techniques were used for the selection of 25 journalists across six media organisations in Lagos.FindingsThe results showed that assault on journalists is a common phenomenon in the city, with more cases usually recorded during period of general elections. Three major factors were identified by respondents as underlying violent attacks on journalists. Also, security personnel and political thugs were mentioned as the major perpetrators of violent attacks on journalists.Originality/valueThis research not only provides a unique and significant insight into the issue bordering on violent attacks that are being directed at media practitioners in Nigeria it equally puts forward some useful and far-reaching recommendations that can be adopted to effectively address the problem.

Hari Pemungutan Suara dalam Bingkai Media Televisi

The public should be the party that benefits the most in terms of access to information through mass media using public frequencies. Expectations regarding the role of the media are increasingly important during the election period, as in this study it is limited to voting day by choosing TV One and Metro TV as research objects to analyze broadcast content and interpretations made by the media regarding the vote on April 17 2019. This study uses a constructive research approach, with the Robert N. Entman framing analysis methodology presented in a descriptive qualitative manner. The findings in this study indicate that there are educational efforts on live broadcast programs that can be seen in the selection of sources and in the dialogue developed by the two media. Metro TV interpreted that the voting day was running smoothly and that the candidates participated in influencing the peaceful running of the election. Meanwhile, TV One framed the 2019 Election as still running with various problems for voters who had to vote for five different types of elections. The study also found that the media played a role in framing the 2019 elections that were centered on the presidential election, rather than other types of elections. In addition, these two media also provide space for their owners to convey messages to the public who are also figures of national political parties.

Clientelism in Northeast Brazil: brokerage within and outside electoral times

ABSTRACT In scholarship on informal politics in Brazil, clientelism is a well-studied phenomenon. While studies of clientelism generally concentrate on elections, campaigning and vote buying, clientelist practices and their impact extend well beyond this temporal and thematic focus. This article develops an approach that builds on theories of brokerage in anthropology and social network studies. Based on long-term ethnographic fieldwork in low-income neighbourhoods in Recife, Brazil, it shows how clientelism is based on informal exchanges both within and outside election periods. Through a study of community leaders, their projects and their search for resources, the article advances a more comprehensive understanding of how clientelism works as a social mechanism in the ordering of life in these neighbourhoods.

Facebook, una extensión de marketing y no un espacio deliberativo

Las redes sociodigitales han sido consideradas como la nueva esfera pública, en la que políticos y usuarios interactúan para proponer, debatir, y hasta solucionar temas de interés público. Esta idea es particularmente recurrente durante las campañas electorales, en las que se asume que los ciudadanos y candidatos estrechan lazos al intercambiar puntos de vista sobre las propuestas de políticas públicas. Por esta razón, el objetivo de este artículo es analizar los procesos de comunicación y deliberación online que se desarrollaron durante el periodo electoral del 2018 en México. Para lograrlo, se realizó un análisis de contenido de las publicaciones del entonces candidato Andrés Manuel López Obrador en su perfil de Facebook, y las interacciones que estas produjeron. Los resultados señalan que los usuarios de esta red se comunicaron constantemente entre sí, particularmente para expresar su apoyo o rechazo al candidato, pero dicha interacción derivó en escasos momentos de deliberación.

Comunicación política en Instagram durante la emergencia sanitaria por el COVID 19. El caso de Otto Sonnenholzner en Ecuador

En los últimos años, Instagram se convertido en una plataforma útil para la comunicación política, especialmente en períodos electorales. Por otro lado, las crisis suelen incrementar el interés de los ciudadanos por el trabajo que realizan sus gobernantes, aunque, a la vez, generan menos tolerancia hacia mensajes que puedan tener segundas intenciones además de informar, como la promoción electoral. Este trabajo examina el uso de la cuenta de Instagram del vicepresidente de Ecuador, Otto Sonnenholzner, durante la primera fase de emergencia nacional en el país, decretada a causa de la pandemia del COVID 19. A partir de una metodología descriptiva y longitudinal, se identificó si el segundo mandatario utilizó Instagram para el manejo exclusivo de la crisis o si la comunicación tuvo otros objetivos no vinculados con la emergencia nacional. La evidencia demuestra que Sonnenholzner usó su cuenta de Instagram principalmente para promover su imagen personal, lo que podría tener un matiz de promoción política, sobre todo cuando su nombre sonaba como posible candidato presidencial para las elecciones de 2021. El estudio insta a que se realicen más investigaciones sobre el uso de Instagram en la comunicación política, especialmente para comprender su utilidad en una situación de emergencia como la causada por el COVID 19.

Which Political Actors Frame the Immigration Problem? Documenting the Incidence of Source Type and Party Lines in Immigration Stories during U.S. Election Coverage (2006-2014)

ABSTRACT This study investigates the framing of immigration by political actors in US election news from 2006 to 2014 and how they present the issue as a problem (for society, for immigrants, no problem frames). Through a content analysis of national newspapers coverage of midterm and presidential elections, we explore the relationship between the people sourced in the stories and the framing of immigration as a problem. Results show that despite an increasingly competitive framing field (with more non-governmental, non-elite sources salient in news coverage), government officials and candidates are still often mentioned in stories on immigration. Seen along party lines, framing of immigration as a problem for society is more associated with Republican government officials and candidates for office than with Democrats. Special interest groups and Law enforcement sources are also attached to immigration framing. Implications for the understanding of how the immigration issue is framed during electoral periods are discussed.

Political tax cycles: Cyclicality of the tax burden in election periods

The article discusses changes in the tax burden in election and post-election years in countries with different levels of economic and political development. The study uses the data on 121 countries for the period between 1991 and 2019 to test two hypotheses: 1) in election years, governments tend to boost spending while in post-election years government expenditures decline, which determines a similar dynamic of the tax burden; 2) in election years the tax burden decreases and in post-election years it either increases or decreases at a slower rate than in election periods. Methodologically, the study relies on multi-factor regression analysis of panel data. As a result, the first hypothesis is confirmed for high-income countries where the governments increase their spending to ensure the incumbent’s re-election and cut their expenditures after the election. In developed countries, in election years, the government’s spending was 0.4% higher than in other periods. In developed countries, governments were motivated to raise rather than reduce the tax burden in order to compensate for their increased expenditures. No common pattern of declining tax burden in election periods was detected for all observed countries, for groups of countries by income level (high-income, middle- or low-income) or for groups of countries by political regime type (democratic and non-democratic– hybrid or authoritarian). However, the analysis of the annual data on taxes has shown that the decline in the tax burden can occur in countries with developing economic and political systems as was the case with Armenia, Russia and Ukraine in 1992–2019. In general, the findings demonstrate that the governments are more prone to using monetary and fiscal rather than tax instruments in election periods.

Political Budget Cycle: An Analysis of Brazilian Municipalities

The study investigates the behavior of committed expenses, investment expenditures and loan during an election period in Brazilian municipalities with a population equal to or greater than 50 thousand inhabitants, as well as whether these same municipalities meet the legal requirements regarding the source and limit of budget resources in an election year, as established by Law No. 11,300/06, in the period 2000-2016. The research sample represents 66% of the Brazilian population. The method applied for data analysis was tobit regression on panel data, grouped by municipalities, corresponding to 353 municipalities, 5 regions and 6001 observations. The findings indicate that there are no changes in the expenses committed before, during and after the electoral period, regardless of party equality and election in two rounds. With regard to spending on investments and loan during an election period, the study suggests an average increase of 9% and 68% respectively, with greater intensity when there is party equality between municipal and state governments, especially in the process of reelection. As for compliance with legal requirements on the use of budget resources in an election year, the study indicates that local governments do not comply with current normative instructions. Contributions: Considering that there is no consensus in the specialized literature on the behavior of public spending, this study contributes to the literature and future research because it innovates through a robust and effective statistical method, the disclosure of spending behavior in local governments in election period.

Impact of African leaders’ characteristics and regime transitions on economic growth in Africa: A dynamic model approach

Abstract This paper examined the extent to which leaders’ characteristics and regime transitions impact on economic growth. A unique panel dataset, comprising 44 sub-Sahara African countries from 1970 to 2010, was used for the study. We used the differenced generalized methods of moments’ estimation to test our dynamic model for the dataset controlling for leader specific effects. We observed that democratic leaders were able to attract foreign direct investment and impact on economic growth positively. With regard to regime transitions, we observed that business cycle existed, and it reduced the rate of growth in democratic governance in election periods as compared to autocratic governance. Overall, our results show that there is a limit to which an ageing leader can stay in office. Moreover, the overall results point to a democratic governance having an advantage over an autocratic one in the process of promoting increased and sustainable growth and investments.

Мирні зібрання як інструмент впливу екологічних партій та громадських організацій на політичні процеси в Україні

The article examines peaceful assemblies as one of the tools of environmental political parties and NGOs in the context of their impact on political processes in Ukraine. It is established that the specifics of organizational aspects, slogans and other features of peaceful assemblies of Ukrainian environmental parties and NGOs have changed since the late 1980s and during the years of the independence of Ukraine. In particular, the 1986 Chernobyl disaster was a powerful stimulus for their intensification and peaceful protest rallies. As of 2021, the range of issues that are the cause and reason for peaceful assemblies is very wide. One of the most pressing is the problem of mitigating the effects of negative climate change and adapting to them. The study does not reveal any significant differences between the specifics of the use of peaceful assemblies by environmental parties and environmental NGOs. All significant differences are related to the different status of these organizations and their connection to the electoral process. Instead, the scenarios of peaceful protest-type gatherings (demonstrations, marches, pickets), as well as positive actions (cleaning, landscaping, planting trees, etc.) for environmental parties and NGOs are identical in their characteristics. On the eve and during the election campaigns, there is an intensification of environmental parties and NGOs in holding peaceful assemblies. Their specificity depends on the type of elections: during national elections, such actions are both local and national. During local elections, peaceful assemblies are predominantly local and address local issues. Popular types of actions during the election period are protests with slogans and demands to the government, as in the vast majority of cases environmental parties in Ukraine are in opposition or critically evaluate actions of the government: both at the central and local levels. Environmental NGOs, in accordance with their status, provide advice and formulate requirements to election participants and encourage them to include environmental aspects and commitments in their programs, in particular in the form of an «environmental agenda».

Voting in a Pandemic: Lessons from the 2020 South Korean Legislative Election

In this paper, we examine the extent to which a government's response to a pandemic affects election outcomes. Using detailed data on South Korea's 21st legislative election, held in April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that a candidate of the ruling Democratic Party was less preferred in electoral districts where the COVID-19 infection rate was higher. We also find that the South Korean government's successful control of the disease contributed significantly to the overwhelming victory of the ruling party against the leading opposition party. Specifically, our counterfactual analysis predicts that each party would have taken 129 and 102 of the 231 constituency seats considered in the analysis, respectively, had the COVID infection rate been the same as the OECD average during the election period. Given that the observed result was 147 to 84, this implies that 18 electees of the ruling party would have lost to the candidates of the leading opposition party, which in turn would have granted the opposition party the ability to block any attempt by the ruling party to fast-track debatable bills.

Sentiment Analysis of Political Tweets From the 2019 Spanish Elections

The use of sentiment analysis methods has increased in recent years across a wide range of disciplines. Despite the potential impact of the development of opinions during political elections, few studies have focused on the analysis of sentiment dynamics and their characterization from statistical and mathematical perspectives. In this paper, we apply a set of basic methods to analyze the statistical and temporal dynamics of sentiment analysis on political campaigns and assess their scope and limitations. To this end, we gathered thousands of Twitter messages mentioning political parties and their leaders posted several weeks before and after the 2019 Spanish presidential election. We then followed a twofold analysis strategy: (1) statistical characterization using indices derived from well-known temporal and information metrics and methods –including entropy, mutual information, and the Compounded Aggregated Positivity Index– allowing the estimation of changes in the density function of sentiment data; and (2) feature extraction from nonlinear intrinsic patterns in terms of manifold learning using autoencoders and stochastic embeddings. The results show that both the indices and the manifold features provide an informative characterization of the sentiment dynamics throughout the election period. We found measurable variations in sentiment behavior and polarity across the political parties and their leaders and observed different dynamics depending on the parties’ positions on the political spectrum, their presence at the regional or national levels, and their nationalist or globalist aspirations.

Online Free Speech and the Suppression of False Political Claims

This article will consider the approach taken in different jurisdictions to the use of restrictions, including criminal law prohibitions, to prevent, deter or suppress the making of false political claims online, especially (but not solely) during election periods. The article will explain, first, how a commitment to freedom of expression ought to make state measures to deter the dissemination online of what the author calls false political “viewpoint” information seem problematic. Secondly, the article will show how a number of jurisdictions, including some liberal democracies, have wrongly been drawn into an authoritarian response to the spread of such false information: a response that tries to set the terms on which people come to give and form political viewpoints. Coercion may legitimately be employed (i) to secure due process at the polls, when this is threatened by the dissemination of what the author calls false “participation” information, and to a limited extent (ii) to support transparency about authorship; but coercion should not be used to deter the propagation of political viewpoint content, simply on the grounds of its falsity.

ВИКОРИСТАННЯ ОПИТУВАНЬ ГРОМАДСЬКОЇ ДУМКИ У ВИСВІТЛЕННІ МІСЦЕВИХ ВИБОРІВ 2020 РОКУ У ТЕЛЕНОВИНАХ

For many Ukrainians, the “window” into the world of news is television, especially television news. Having studied the news programs of all-Ukrainian channels, it can be noted that despite broadcasting local elections facts on all TV channels, they did not get such great media interest as the presidential or parliamentary ones, which may indicate little attention of central media to local politics. With the increased public interest in sociology during the election period, the proper dissemination of sociological information is important. It is important for people to learn from the media about reliable rankings accompanied with mandatory methodological information. The study proves the most problematic in the coverage of polling was the publication of information about customers in the media. Survey results manipulation also occurred through using research from dubious and pseudo-sociological institutions and ignoring information from well-known and authoritative organizations. Such non-compliance with the standards of releasing public opinion polls violates the requirements of the Electoral Code and causes the neglect of citizens’ rights to full and objective information about the elections. The conclusion can be made that television, as a popular channel for obtaining information among Ukrainians, did not give the audience full access to the results of sociological research on local elections. The paper offers some solutions to the situation, for instance, increasing the responsibility of the media for disseminating incomplete and unreliable survey results. It is also significant that sociological services provide comprehensive information about their research. If sociological companies are open and provide full reports, the media will have more opportunities to release complete information about the polls to the public. In addition, enhancing general media literacy, the ability to interpret survey results and define their accuracy and reliability will contribute to the citizens’ resistance to sociological data manipulation in the media.