Economic Voting Research Articles

종족투표와 경제투표 : 2022년 케냐 대통령 선거 결과 분석

이 논문은 케냐의 2022년 대통령 선거 결과를 종족투표와 경제투표를 중심으로 분석했다. 종족투표가 지배적인 케냐 선거에서 경제 이슈의 부상이 선거 결과에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지 국가 수준의 경제 지표와 카운티 수준의 투표 결과를 이용해 경험적으로 분석했다. 분석 결과, 이번 선거에서도 케냐인들의 종족 중심 투표행태는 여전히 존재한다는 것을 보여줬다. 다만, 유권자들이 케냐타 정부의 경제성과에 매우 실망해 책임을 물었으며, 자신들의 이해관계를 더 잘 대변해 줄 것으로 기대되는 후보에 투표하는 경향도 나타났다. 이처럼 케냐인들의 관심과 투표 행태의 변화로 인해 2022년 선거에 나타난 중요한 현상은 정치 엘리트들이 종족 지도자 간의 연대 협상보다 유권자들의 요구에 더 주목하기 시작했다는 점이다. 이러한 변화가 케냐의 민주주의 발전에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 기대된다.

Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018

The Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) came to power in 2002, and since then has never received <34% of nationwide voter support in Turkish general elections. Recent research focuses on the Economic Voting Theorem (EVT), specifically the varieties of pocketbook or sociotropic voting, as the primary explanation for the AKP’s successive electoral victories. However, this approach fails to adequately explain the ongoing electoral support for the AKP at both national and local levels, even under poor economic performance. It also fails to consider the impact of the spatial components of peripheral sociologies. This study employs the comparative method with EVT and Center–Periphery (C–P) phenomena in order to understand the dominant characteristics of voting behavior from a spatial perspective. Although EVT and C–P explanations take part in the literature, a limited number of studies measure and visualize the impact of those from a spatial perspective. In order to distinguish between the effects of EVT and C–P the study utilizes an original data set that measures different socio-economic factors such as per capita growth, unemployment, inflation, education, age, religious conservatism, ethnicity, and space both at the national and local levels. The results, contrary to expectations, show that the main drivers of voting behavior for the AKP consist of a mix of both C–P and EVT while C–P factors have a greater impact. In comparison to the EVT, C–P features such as religious conservatism and ethnicity perform better as predictors of the AKP’s electoral performance than the national and local economic conditions. Also, spatial results imply that support for the AKP has different spatial regimes based on ethnic identity and there are no spatial spillovers between spatial regimes in terms of voting behavior.

Housing Performance and the Electorate

The electorate is concerned with personal financial and macroeconomic conditions in addition to policy issues and tends to hold the incumbent party accountable when voting. The performance of the United States’ largest asset class, residential real estate, should influence individual voter behavior. According to economic voting theory and the “homevoter” hypothesis, homeowners will be more supportive of policies that are perceived as beneficial to their property value. We investigate this relationship in the US residential real estate market by evaluating the effects of heterogenous county-level housing market performance on voter behavior in national presidential elections and find counties with superior house price performance in the four years preceding an election are more likely to “vote-switch” to the incumbent party. Counties with relatively inferior house price performance in the four years leading up to the election are more likely to switch their vote from the incumbent to the challenging party. The relationship is strongest in the years closest to an election and in counties that rank in the higher quartile of housing price performance. Election outcomes in “swing” counties are particularly vulnerable the local real estate economy. To our knowledge, this is the first study to link heterogeneous local residential real estate performance over a series of national election outcomes.

The decoupling of government sentiment and the macroeconomy in a highly polarised political setting

ABSTRACT This article argues that causality between economic conditions and political sentiment can be moderated by the presence of strong political polarisation based on sociocultural issues. We look at the interdependencies between economic and political sentiment in Croatia, a country characterised by strong political divisions over interpretations of history, the role of religion in society, and conflicts of traditional vs. modernist values. Our results reveal that economic variables and government support move more or less independently. Thus, we conclude that performance evaluation in general, and economic voting in particular, play a very small role in Croatian politics.

An economic offer they cannot refuse! Economic expectations on incumbent government support in Core and periphery European countries

AbstractThe importance of economic conditions on election outcomes is well established. This paper supplements the standard approach to economic voting by assessing government support from a highly debated perspective of European spaces: Core countries and Periphery countries (Central Eastern European and Southern countries). The paper reveals that the economic conditions perceived by voters in the future are expected to differently affect incumbent government support depending on the macroeconomic position of the country. This paper finds that, contrary to Core countries' electors, voters in periphery countries are keener to support the incumbent governments if the economic outputs are positive. It concludes that positive economic expectations are strongly and positively associated with incumbent government support, regardless of previous vote choice, while negative economic expectations are strongly and negatively associated with government support.

Выборы в Африке: успехи и неудачи этнической и региональной консолидации электората

The article examines the impact of elite coalition strategies on the ethno-regional consolidation of the electorate in African countries. Ethnic voting has traditionally been seen as a key factor in African elections, but recent research shows that other determinants also play a significant role. Moreover, it is clear that the strength of ethnic voting varies considerably from country to country, and various explanations have been offered, ranging from the features of the historical path to the structure of ethnic splits and the sizes of the ethnic groups in question. We suggest that the strength of ethnic voting can vary not only between countries, but also between different electoral cycles in the same country. The reason for this is the choice of strategy by political actors: we assume that when a coalition strategy is chosen, the role of ethnic cleavages will decrease, and the territorial homogeneity of the vote will increase. This paper examines three cases similar in terms of democracy level, political system, British colonial past, and ethnic heterogeneity: Malawi, Nigeria and Ghana. In cases of Malawi and Nigeria, we observe how the choice or rejection of a coalition strategy by political actors can influence the increase or decrease of ethno-regional consolidation of the electorate. Ghana is an example of successful and stable consolidation achieved through the consistent application of coalition strategies. This article demonstrates that coalition strategies of elites can indeed influence ethno-regional consolidation of the electorate. In addition, the research reveals that voting is significantly influenced by some other non-ethnic factors related to economic voting (both retrospective and prospective), strategic voting of smaller ethnic groups, and distinctive kind of voting in national capitals.

Economic voting and state-business relations in OECD countries

ABSTRACT Regarding the variance of economic voting, the literature draws on various political institutions and individual-level contexts but pays little attention on how to comprehensively analyze political and economic spheres. Given that politics and economy are closely intertwined by resource acquisition and allocation, this study proposes state-business relations (SBR) to explain the variance across countries. The empirical analysis of 31 OECD countries from 1995 to 2019 confirms that the SBR’s explanatory power is significant as a coordination mechanism in a country and moderates political and economic contexts. This study highlights the importance of systematic integration of political and economic spheres and calls for additional efforts to elaborate the nuance of SBR in economic voting across countries.

Voting under EMU: economic perceptions, responsibility attribution and EU politicisation.

ABSTRACT The article analyses the effects of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on economic voting. Theories of responsibility attribution suggest that voters are less likely to consider the economic situation when they realise that the national government is not completely in charge of economic policy. However, some aspects of the theory are being questioned, and its empirical application to EMU has yielded inconclusive results. The article uses experimental data from six EU countries to provide both a theoretical and a methodological contribution to the debate. Theoretically, we argue that to analyse the effects of EMU on economic voting, it is important to consider voters’ and parties’ positions on EU integration. The Europeanisation of economic policy has become a politicised issue over the last years. Consequently, voters are likely to combine functional considerations about who is in charge of economic policy with political considerations about the desirability of this distribution of responsibility. Methodologically, the article provides an analysis of the conditionality of economic voting that considers different sources of endogeneity. The results confirm the relevance of economic perceptions in voting and provide some support for the idea that voters’ EU positions matter when it comes to the effects of EMU on voting.

Do voters in developing and transitional democracies care about income inequality? the role of media freedom

AbstractIs there a relationship between income inequality and the electoral success of incumbent governments in developing and transitional democracies, and if so, what explains its variations? Using a large N study of national legislative elections in 38 developing and transitional democracies from 1987 to 2016 and controlling for economic growth, inflation, and unemployment rates, this paper tests: (i) whether change in income inequality is negatively associated with the vote share for the incumbent party and (ii) whether the level of media freedom affects the extent of economic voting. Overall, we find evidence that increasing income inequality is negatively and significantly related to the vote share for the incumbent but only in countries with free or somewhat‐free media. Furthermore, consistent with past studies, the most robustly significant economic factor in affecting incumbent vote shares remains economic growth.

GÖÇMENLERE KARŞI TUTUMLARIN PARTİ TERCİHLERİNE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

2011’de Suriye İç Savaşı’nın başlamasıyla bugüne kadar Türkiye’ye göç eden 3 milyon 750 bin civarındaki sığınmacı ile birlikte Türkiye siyasetinde göçmenlere karşı tutumlar da araştırılmaya başlanmıştır. Önceki çalışmalar göçmenlere karşı tutumların çeşitli boyutlarını analiz etmiş olsa da bu tutumların parti tercihlerine etkisi diğer ülkelere kıyasla Türkiye’de daha az çalışılmış bir konudur.&#x0D; Amaç: Bu çalışma 2018 yılında toplanan Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (2019) verisini kullanarak Türkiye’de göçmenlere karşı tutumların parti tercihine olan etkisini nicel yöntemler ile analiz etmektedir.&#x0D; Yöntem: Göçmenlere karşı tutumların parti tercihine etkisi farklı lojistik regresyon modelleri ile yapılan analizlerle ölçülmüştür. Kontrol değişkenleri olarak Türkiye siyasetinde daha önceden çalışılmış dindarlık ve sol-sağ düzlemindeki konum gibi merkez-çevre teorisine dayanan ve ekonomik oy verme davranışını ölçen değişkenler ile demografik değişkenler kullanılmıştır.&#x0D; Bulgular: Sonuçlar göstermektedir ki göçmenlere karşı olumsuz tutumlar arttıkça İyi Parti’ye oy verme olasılığı artarken, AK Parti’ye oy verme olasılığı azalmaktadır. Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi’ne oy verme tercihi ile göçmenlere karşı tutumlar arasında sadece demografik değişkenlerle kontrol edildiğinde olumlu bir ilişki varken, dindarlık ve seçmenin sol-sağ düzlemindeki konumu ile birlikte kontrol edildiğinde ise bu etki istatistiksel olarak anlamsızlaşmaktadır. Son olarak ekonomik değerlendirmeler de regresyona eklendiğinde göçmenlere karşı tutumların parti tercihine etkisi tüm modellerde istatistiksel olarak anlamsız hale gelmektedir. &#x0D; Özgünlük: Veri setindeki diğer ülkeler ile kıyaslandığında Türkiye’de göçmenlere karşı olumsuz tutumlar oldukça yüksekken bu tutumların parti tercihini belirlemede zayıf kalması yanıtlanması önemli bir soru olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır.

Who benefits from the retrospective vote? Bringing in new parties

Democracies across the world have experienced the rise of new political parties. The dominant view of the model of (retrospective) economic voting implicitly assumes that the main beneficiary of electoral change is the established opposition. However, the rise of new political parties affects how we think of retrospective (economic) voting. This article presents a more nuanced picture of electoral change and considers when electoral turnover benefits established opposition parties, and when new political parties. The theoretical model introduces different macro-economic and macro-political motives for electoral turnover. Using a novel dataset on electoral change, covering 59 democracies worldwide, it is found that high levels of corruption discredit the entire political establishment, and promote the rise of new parties. The effect of economic hardship is more nuanced. Low economic growth mainly benefits the established opposition because voters look for an established alternative within the political system. Rising unemployment, by contrast, promotes the rise of new parties.

Retrospective voting under supranational constraints

Economic voting is commonly seen as a cornerstone of democratic accountability. Recent work argues that globalization attenuates it by blurring responsibility and constraining the room to maneuver of domestic governments. Here we explore the consequences of another factor that also shrinks policy maneuver: Membership of Supranational Institutions. In a pre-registered survey experiment fielded in Spain in May 2018, we manipulate information both about economic performance and about the Eurozone rules that constrain domestic policy-making. Our results show that supranational constraints do not attenuate accountability for bad economic outcomes. Instead, supranational constraints lead to a backlash against both the incumbent and other mainstream parties. We interpret the evidence as suggestive that voters blame these parties for having consented to the supranational rules in the first place and for how their implementation limits domestic responses to bad economic performance. These results show that the room to maneuver argument of the globalization literature cannot be simply extended to membership of supranational organizations.

Urban home values and multi-level political accountability: Evidence from Calgary, Canada

ABSTRACT While retrospective economic voting—that is, punishing or rewarding incumbent politicians for the performance of the economy—is well studied, much less is known about the electoral implications of the housing market across levels of government. Which, if any, levels of government are judged on the basis of real estate prices? This piece considers this question, using panel survey data and home assessment data from Calgary, Alberta, a city where housing prices have stagnated in recent years relative to other Canadian cities. We find that support for incumbents at both the local and provincial levels are related to impressions of the direction of the housing market. City councilors, however, are the only politicians who seem to be held accountable for the performance of the housing market. Our results suggest that, at the local level, housing prices are an important consideration for economic voting.

Economic Voting as a factor of electoral Volatility in Russian Federation (on the example of regions of the Central federal district)

The article deals with the phenomenon of economic voting which stands out as a factor of electoral volatility. We choose the 2021 elections to the State Duma to serve as an example of the analysis. Two indicators that is level of unemployment and the proportion of population with monetary income which is lower than the minimum standard of life we used to demonstrate the socio-economic situation prior to the elections. The consideration of the interplay of socio-economic indices and the dynamics of changing voters party preferences clearly shows that the level of unemployment alone have market effect on the electoral participation. The author concludes that the electoral behaviour of Russians citizens remains mainly prospective. Despite the aggravation of socio-economic problems, the majority of voters keep up confidence in the ruling party United Russia connecting with in their hopes for material wellbeing in future. However, the positive correlation between the growth of unemployment and widening electoral support to the opposition parties points out that in case of further deterioration of socio-economic situation changes in arrangement of political forces in Russian political scene can not be excluded.

Crisis management: personal financial well-being and public attitudes toward government intervention

PurposeCrises precipitate strong fiscal responses by government – sometimes toward austerity, other times toward renewed social spending. This variation in approaches to crisis handling has the potential to highlight factors that drive public opinion toward government interventions that may be quite different from those in non-crisis times. This study aims to discuss the aforementioned issues.Design/methodology/approachThis article brings together theories of government policymaking in crises, policy responsiveness and economic voting to assess how personal financial (egocentric) concerns and/or national financial (sociotropic) concerns may influence opinions toward government handling of direct financial supports in a crisis and, more generally, opinions toward social policy interventions. The authors assess this dynamic in the Canadian context using original national survey data collected in the initial stage of the pandemic-based crisis in June and July of 2020 (N = 1290).FindingsThe authors find strong evidence in support of sociotropic concerns shaping government approval and support for greater social policy interventions, but limited evidence to support egocentric concerns, suggesting that social policy attitudes may be more insulated from personal factors than anticipated.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors’ findings suggest that crises may prompt enhanced support for interventionist social policy measures that may lack broad-based support in non-crisis times.Originality/valueThe authors’ findings speak to the ongoing discussion around the possibility for crises to function as policy windows for enhanced social spending and for entrenching targeted financial supports for vulnerable individuals.

Economic Status and Elections: The Voting Behaviour and Economic Hardship in Rome

Empirical research shows the existence of a relationship between the electoral behaviour of citizens and their economic condition. The economic voting theory explains that in periods of economic growth citizens-voters reward the government considered the author of their well-being; on the contrary, in times of crisis, the population punishes it. The peculiarity of these studies, based on the analysis of secondary data designed for other primary purposes, is to have national territorial dimension, where the percentage of votes collected by government/opposition parties in political national elections is associated to the country’s macro-economic indicators (for example, GDP or unemployment rate). Nevertheless, up to now, only few scholars have analysed this relationship at local level, due to the lack of local statistical data on citizens’ economic conditions. This study tries to fill this gap. It is conducted in the city of Rome, to understand whether the electoral behaviour of Roman citizens changes in function of their economic hardship, in each of the 15 Municipalities of the capital city of Italy. To this end, two different data sources are integrated: Electoral Statistical Office of Rome and Italian Revenue Agency. The results offer empirical evidence to strengthen the local relation between electoral behaviour and economic conditions.

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Macroeconomy and macropartisanship: Economic conditions and party identification

Abstract“It's the economy stupid”—is the phrase that captures the ubiquity of economics in determining election outcomes. Nevertheless, while several studies support the premise of economic voting, a constant critique of valence economic models is that partisan bias contaminates voters' economic perceptions, thus invaliding any independent effect of economic opinions on the vote. Here, we test whether partisanship may itself be endogenous to the macroeconomy. Aggregating data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), supplemented with European Social Survey (ESS) data to bolster the time analysis, we focus on macropartisanship and find a drop‐off of party identifiers for governing parties in tandem with the economic downturn, specifically from rising unemployment. More generally, macropartisanship responds to economic conditions, suggesting that the endogeneity concern between party attachment and valence economic conditions is not unidirectional. That is, while economic perceptions may be influenced by party identification, party identification can be influenced by economic conditions.Related ArticlesDettrey, Bryan J. 2013. “Relative Losses and Economic Voting: Sociotropic Considerations or ‘Keeping up with the Joneses?’” Politics &amp; Policy 41(5): 788–806. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12038.Fernandes, Ivan Filipe, Gustavo Andrey De Almeida Lopes Fernandes, and Artur Zimerman. 2022. “For Whom the Bell Tolls: Party Mediation Effects on Economic Voting in a Large Democratic Federation.” Politics &amp; Policy 50(2): 324–62. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12453.Stegmaier, Mary, and Michael S. Lewis‐Beck. 2009. “Learning the Economic Vote: Hungarian Forecasts, 1998–2010.” Politics &amp; Policy 37(4): 769–80. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00197.x.

Economic Performance and Political Choice in Ukraine

In this article the economic performance as a factor that determined the political choice of Ukrainians has been analyzed. It is proven by a panel model that, unlike the countries with developed democracies, a retrospective economic vote in presidential elections was not observed in Ukraine; it turned out to be prospective instead with regard to the last (year 2019) presidential election. The authors presented a set of reasons which could explain such situation: lack of democratic experience, relying on heuristics and emotions, low public mood among the others. It has been demonstrated that Ukrainians’ political choice in 2019 has some consequences for the economy, which may contribute to the loss of a nation’s development guidelines for a certain period of time and subsequent social disappointment.

Absolute and benchmarked economic voting. A subnational perspective on a decade of elections in Southern Europe

ABSTRACT The article analyses the 15 elections that took place between 2010 and 2019 in four South European countries – Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain – through the lenses of the retrospective vote theory. The large within-country variation of economic conditions justifies the adoption of an original subnational perspective, while the explicit test of alternative economic quantities and horizons provides a more credible assessment of voters’ behaviours. Besides offering a taxonomy of local retrospective voting, the research found that citizens assessed the incumbents against regional unemployment levels and national growth dynamics, further benchmarking the local economic conditions against their past performances. These results give credit to the idea that the South European electorate shares similar references in assessing the economic competences of incumbent governments.