Economic Voting as a factor of electoral Volatility in Russian Federation (on the example of regions of the Central federal district)

Abstract

The article deals with the phenomenon of economic voting which stands out as a factor of electoral volatility. We choose the 2021 elections to the State Duma to serve as an example of the analysis. Two indicators that is level of unemployment and the proportion of population with monetary income which is lower than the minimum standard of life we used to demonstrate the socio-economic situation prior to the elections. The consideration of the interplay of socio-economic indices and the dynamics of changing voters party preferences clearly shows that the level of unemployment alone have market effect on the electoral participation. The author concludes that the electoral behaviour of Russians citizens remains mainly prospective. Despite the aggravation of socio-economic problems, the majority of voters keep up confidence in the ruling party United Russia connecting with in their hopes for material wellbeing in future. However, the positive correlation between the growth of unemployment and widening electoral support to the opposition parties points out that in case of further deterioration of socio-economic situation changes in arrangement of political forces in Russian political scene can not be excluded.