UNEMPLOYMENT IN CHERNIHIV REGION: REALITY AND PROGNOSIS

Abstract

The state of unemployment in Chernihiv region is analyzed in the article. The present day situation and the state of labor market make it necessary to detect the groups of population which are at the risk of unemployment. Both the representatives of economic science and the contemporary Ukrainian scientists-geographers have dedicated their works to the investigation of unemployment and the necessity of the state regulation of the matter. The conducted research revealed the most vulnerable groups in the structure of the unemployed and at the same time pointed out the need for searching and applying the new forms and instruments in the state policy to decrease the level of unemployment.
 The research of the state of unemployment in the region in 2010-2020 proved the tendency to its decrease. According to the official statistics, the level of unemployment in Chernihiv region in 2019 was 10,2 %. The author of the article thinks that the negative tendency on the regional labor market is the decreasing of the number of the officially registered unemployed that can be most possibly explained, on the one hand, by the implementation of complex measures targeted at reducing pressure on the labor market in Chernihiv region and, on the other hand, by the skeptical attitude of people to the registration at the Employment Center as they don’t believe the state authorities to find a job for them.
 The labor market in Chernihiv region is characterized by the gender gap – the specific weight of unemployed men is 4,9% higher than the specific weight of unemployed women. The level of unemployment among young people is higher in comparison with older age groups, which characterizes this group of population as the unstable one. However, the level of concentration in the distribution of unemployment among the young people tends to decrease in the last years. There is a stable tendency in the growth of unemployment among young people with higher education. The specific weight of unemployed citizens with higher education in Chernihiv region is 46,0%. The growing number of the unemployed with higher education indicates that in the present day social-economic conditions education doesn’t reduce the risk of unemployment.
 The level of unemployment in Chernihiv region is influenced by the economic activities of the population. The main spheres of the economic activities with the highest unemployment level are agriculture, forestry, fish-farming, state management and defense, compulsory social insurance, retail and wholesale, repairing of transport means, processing.
 The level of unemployment in rural area exceeds that one in the urban area. There is a disproportion of unemployment rate in different districts. In the half of the administrative districts the unemployment rate is 4-5%. The worst situation is in Nizhyn and Pryluky districts.
 The short-term prognosis on the number of the unemployed citizens in Chernihiv region is introduced. The number of the registered unemployed in Chernihiv region is expected to increase on 3 thousand people which makes 28,2%. The prognosis on the unemployment rate in Chernihiv region ensures monitoring of the changes, estimating of the tendencies in the development of the situation on the regional labor market and making more appropriate and timely decisions on the site.
 Key words: labor market, unemployment, unemployment rate, the number of unemployed population.