Urban home values and multi-level political accountability: Evidence from Calgary, Canada

Abstract

ABSTRACT While retrospective economic voting—that is, punishing or rewarding incumbent politicians for the performance of the economy—is well studied, much less is known about the electoral implications of the housing market across levels of government. Which, if any, levels of government are judged on the basis of real estate prices? This piece considers this question, using panel survey data and home assessment data from Calgary, Alberta, a city where housing prices have stagnated in recent years relative to other Canadian cities. We find that support for incumbents at both the local and provincial levels are related to impressions of the direction of the housing market. City councilors, however, are the only politicians who seem to be held accountable for the performance of the housing market. Our results suggest that, at the local level, housing prices are an important consideration for economic voting.