Dynamic Bayesian Network Model Research Articles

A multi-phase mission success evaluation approach for maritime autonomous surface ships considering equipment performance degradation and system composition changes

With the development of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASSs), the mission success assessment problem cannot be ignored because of potential security issues of MASSs. This paper addresses the issue of performance degradation at different stages, the problem of state dependence in multi-stage missions of MASSs, and the correlation problem between missions of stages. Based on the coupling of the reliability model of each single-stage mission system, a multi-stage mission success evaluation method for MASSs is proposed. By leveraging the ability of the conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks to express the complex relationships between the nodes, the dynamic Bayesian network model of stages is constructed based on the fault tree. Based on the Markov process, the problem of state dependence on shared equipment between stages is solved. Considering the complex relationship between multi-stage missions, the virtual node is introduced, and the multi-state Bayesian network is combined to realize the coupling of the reliability evaluation results of each single-stage mission. It is applied to the multi-stage mission success evaluation of the MASS to obtain the success probability of MASSs and the key equipment of each stage. The results show that evaluation results are more suitable for engineering practice.

A dynamic system reliability analysis model on safety instrumented systems

This paper introduces a novel hybrid dynamic model for complex systems reliability assessment. The model synergizes expert knowledge elicitation and an enhanced Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) with Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) modeling, aiming to surmount the limitations such as uncertainty and static modeling inherent in traditional methods. The proposed model is deployed on a Safety Instrumented System (SIS) designed to prevent runaway reactions within a Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR), considering factors such as system degradation, human interventions, and proof testing on system reliability. The analysis pinpointed the logic solver subsystem as the principal vulnerability within the assessed SIS, leading to targeted recommendations to bolster system reliability. The outcomes offer insights for a wide range of safety-critical systems aiming to augment the safety and efficacy of SISs, thereby advancing safety and resilience management across various complex engineering systems, particularly in contexts where field data is scant.

Developing a Risk Management Framework for Agricultural Water Systems Using Fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Networks and Decision-Making Models

AbstractGiven the various natural and human-caused hazards that threaten the agricultural water distribution process from the main source to farms, establishing a framework to analyze these risks is crucial. This study aims to develop an intelligent risk management framework to help stakeholders devise long-term and sustainable solutions for managing agricultural water systems. First, we developed a Fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Network (FDBN) model for multi-hazard risk assessment, taking into account the temporal causal interactions between parameters and incorporating fuzzy theory. Next, we defined several risk management scenarios across structural, non-structural, automated control, and integrated methods. These scenarios were implemented in the FDBN model to mitigate the risks associated with the system. Various economic, social, environmental, and technical criteria were considered, and scenarios were ranked using the WASPAS, TOPSIS, and MultiMoora methods. The Copeland approach was used to combine the ranking results. The results showed that automated scenarios, specifically Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Proportional-Integral (PI) controllers, could reduce the system's risk by 11.4% and 9.8%, respectively, and were ranked the highest. The findings of this study and the proposed framework can assist operators in the sustainable planning and management of water systems in light of anticipated threats.

An adaptive operation planning and EBO-BPNN optimization method for decision support systems

Formulating a course of action (COA) before a combat is crucial for operational command. Research in command and control (C2) artificial intelligence is currently focused on using intelligent auxiliary decision-making methods to implement COA. This paper proposes a COA planning method based on line of operation (LOO) and uses planning domain definition language (PDDL) to describe combat scenarios and COA. Following the effect-based optimization (EBO) principle, an effect evaluation model for COA was constructed, and dynamic bayesian networks (DBNs) was used to determine the reasoning and calculate the results of the effect evaluation network. To further improve the execution efficiency of the effect evaluation model in practical applications, the network was optimized through a back propagation neural network (BPNN). Relevant experiments based on the coordinated distributed air defense and anti-missile scenario were carried out using the LOO model to complete the planning of COA. A BPNN evaluation model based on the DBNs evaluation model was built. After training and fine-tuning, it achieved similar evaluation results, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of less than 0.02%. Compared with the DBNs model, the BPNN model achieved an efficiency improvement of no less than 65%, effectively reducing the consumption of computing resources. This research is the first time to realize the modeled description of COA planning, automatic evaluation, and calculation optimization of COA effects. It can support the development of decision support systems (DSS) and has the potential for practical application.

Advanced Human Reliability Analysis Approach for Ship Convoy Operations via a Model of IDAC and DBN: A Case from Ice-Covered Waters

The melting of Arctic ice has facilitated the successful navigation of merchant ships through the Arctic route, often requiring icebreakers for assistance. To reduce the risk of accidents between merchant vessels and icebreakers stemming from human errors during operations, this paper introduces an enhanced human reliability assessment approach. This method utilizes the Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model, integrated with the information, decision, and action in crew context (IDAC) framework. First, a qualitative analysis of crew maneuvering behavior in scenarios involving a collision with the preceding vessel during icebreaker assistance is conducted using the IDAC model. Second, the D–S evidence theory and cloud models are integrated to process multi-source subjective data. Finally, the human error probability of crew members is quantified using the DBN. The research results indicate that during convoy operations, the maximum probability that the officer on watch (OOW) chooses an incorrect deceleration strategy is 8.259×10−2 and the collision probability is 4.129×10−3. Furthermore, this study also found that the factors of Team Effectiveness and Knowledge/Abilities during convoy operations have the greatest impact on collision occurrence. This research provides important guidance and recommendations for the safe navigation of merchant ships in the Arctic waters. By reducing human errors and adopting appropriate preventive measures, the risk of collisions between merchant ships and icebreakers can be significantly decreased.

Quantitative assessment rules and models for dynamic disaster risk in high-density gas gathering stations: Practical application in a largest CBM gathering station

Coalbed Methane (CBM) gathering stations involve multiple engineering disciplines, with a concentration of pressure vessels and strong production continuity. Once accidents occur, they can easily result in severe casualties, property losses, and environmental pollution. Therefore, prior to the large-scale promotion and urban application of CBM, this paper proposes a dynamic quantitative risk assessment model for the operational and task-related risks in CBM gathering stations. Firstly, various methods are employed for risk factor identification. Then, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model is constructed to assess the dynamic operational risks and task-related risks of CBM gathering stations under different maintenance conditions. This model provides the initial probability of operational risk occurrence at stations, predicts changes in the probability of equipment multi-state operational risks under different maintenance conditions over 10 years, and forecasts the probability of task-related risks during operations. Finally, a combined weighting model is established, incorporating instance information to comprehensively evaluate safety management and derive safety management correction coefficients. These coefficients are integrated with the probabilities of station operation and task-related risk occurrence to ultimately determine the likelihood of operational risk occurrence during station production, completing the dynamic quantitative assessment of operational risks in CBM gathering stations.

A Dynamic Bayesian Network model for ship navigation risk in the Arctic Northeast Passage

The melting of a significant amount of sea ice has enabled the commercial and normal operation of ships in the Arctic. However, the harsh natural environment, unique geographical location and complex navigational conditions pose a serious challenge to the safety of ships during navigation. Ship besetting in ice and ship-ice collision are identified as the most critical risks, potentially resulting in vessel damage, property loss, environmental harm, and even casualties. This study proposes a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to assess and predict the risk of ship besetting in ice and ship-ice collision in five sea areas along the Arctic Northeast Passage. The proposed method comprehensively considers environmental, ship and human factors and incorporates multi-year (2013–2022) marine meteorological reanalysis data and expert knowledge. The developed model has seven time steps and can be updated based on past, current and future conditions. The results indicate that it can effectively reflect the distribution of ship navigation risks in various sea areas and has the capability to be updated in real-time, serving as a tool for guiding ship operations and navigation decisions. At the same time, this study confirms August and September are the optimal navigation periods for the Northeast Passage, and the East Siberian Sea presenting the highest navigation risk. Ice thickness, ice concentration, navigation experience, professional skills, ship speed and ship class are identified as the primary risk factors in the region.

Quantitative analysis of aeolian dust incidence and diagnosis using a dynamic Bayesian network model: A case study of estuary area in central Taiwan

The presence of high concentrations of PM10 in aeolian dust within the estuary area of central Taiwan has been a focal point for air quality protection and remediation efforts over the past 15 years. This study explores the quantitative analysis of aeolian dust occurrences concerning various levels of PM10 concentration, aiming to offer early warning information to local communities and government agencies. Employing Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) models, the research interrelates conditional probability dependencies among air quality and meteorological factors monitored in the downstream area of the Jhuoshuei River, predicting the probability distribution of aeolian dust events. The constructed DBNs demonstrate the inference of probability distributions of meteorological factors' states based on PM10 concentrations, enabling diagnostic analysis of meteorological conditions during high PM10 concentration dust events. The DBN models exhibit robust predictive ability, achieving an overall accuracy of 85.72% in validation and 85.8% in testing, with high discriminatory capacity that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.924 and 0.915 during validation and testing, respectively. Sensitivity analysis highlights wind direction, wind speed, relative humidity as significant factors affecting PM10 concentrations. The probability of low PM10 concentrations was notably higher compared to higher concentrations, indicating effective aeolian dust remediation efforts. However, attention is warranted toward the 10% incidence of aeolian dust events deemed unhealthy or hazardous to human health. Diagnosis of meteorological conditions during high PM10 concentration events suggests low temperature, high wind speeds, and dry conditions, particularly with northeastern or southwestern winds, as conducive factors. This study underscores the physical relationship between meteorological factors and PM10 concentrations, employing DBNs to consider temporal relationships and uncertainties in data, aligning with human health impact standards proposed by the Ministry of Environment. Future research should incorporate soil and land surface conditions to provide a more comprehensive understanding of aeolian dust dynamics and mitigation strategies.

Navigating uncertainty: A dynamic Bayesian network-based risk assessment framework for maritime trade routes

Maritime safety is crucial for international seaborne trade and the global economy. Acknowledging the inevitable and multifaceted risks present in maritime navigation, we introduce a novel approach to evaluate the time-dependent risk performance of various routes, with the objective to mitigate vulnerabilities and fortify resilience. To achieve this goal, we have developed an effective framework using a Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to capture the interactive relationships among the influential factors in probabilistic terms. This framework employs a combination of the synthetic minority over-sampling technique and edited nearest neighbor approach to address the issue of imbalanced maritime accident reports. Furthermore, the gradient descent algorithm is utilized to calculate the conditional probabilities among the influential factors, while the Markov chain model is applied to develop the DBN model. The framework enables dynamical consideration of the risk performance of the maritime trade routes and identifies the key influential factors during different time intervals. Our research scientifically identifies the devastating impact of terrorism on shipping routes, followed by other risk factors such as piracy, military conflicts, and various induced risks, ranked in descending order of severity. The case study on the Indian Ocean shipping route, which applies the proposed methodology, reveals an initial phase of fluctuating increases, succeeded by a prevailing downward trend over the span of 2009–2019. The methodology and results provide valuable support for maritime stakeholders in making informed decisions.

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in photovoltaic (PV) solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. In addition, an error compensation mechanism that uses an error node to capture the temporal fluctuation caused by system degradation or failures is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The results show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92 %–95 % from 1 h to one week ahead forecasting.

Statistical machine learning models for prediction of China's maritime emergency patients in dynamic: ARIMA model, SARIMA model, and dynamic Bayesian network model.

Rescuing individuals at sea is a pressing global public health issue, garnering substantial attention from emergency medicine researchers with a focus on improving prevention and control strategies. This study aims to develop a Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) model utilizing maritime emergency incident data and compare its forecasting accuracy to Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. In this research, we analyzed the count of cases managed by five hospitals in Hainan Province from January 2016 to December 2020 in the context of maritime emergency care. We employed diverse approaches to construct and calibrate ARIMA, SARIMA, and DBN models. These models were subsequently utilized to forecast the number of emergency responders from January 2021 to December 2021. The study indicated that the ARIMA, SARIMA, and DBN models effectively modeled and forecasted Maritime Emergency Medical Service (EMS) patient data, accounting for seasonal variations. The predictive accuracy was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R 2) as performance metrics. In this study, the ARIMA, SARIMA, and DBN models reported RMSE of 5.75, 4.43, and 5.45; MAE of 4.13, 2.81, and 3.85; and R 2 values of 0.21, 0.54, and 0.44, respectively. MAE and RMSE assess the level of difference between the actual and predicted values. A smaller value indicates a more accurate model prediction. R 2 can compare the performance of models across different aspects, with a range of values from 0 to 1. A value closer to 1 signifies better model quality. As errors increase, R 2 moves further from the maximum value. The SARIMA model outperformed the others, demonstrating the lowest RMSE and MAE, alongside the highest R 2, during both modeling and forecasting. Analysis of predicted values and fitting plots reveals that, in most instances, SARIMA's predictions closely align with the actual number of rescues. Thus, SARIMA is superior in both fitting and forecasting, followed by the DBN model, with ARIMA showing the least accurate predictions. While the DBN model adeptly captures variable correlations, the SARIMA model excels in forecasting maritime emergency cases. By comparing these models, we glean valuable insights into maritime emergency trends, facilitating the development of effective prevention and control strategies.

Hydrogen leakage risk assessment of HECS based on dynamic bayesian network

As a new energy system, the hydrogen-electric coupling system（HECS） involves complex conditions with multiple hazards such as electricity, hydrogen, heat, and high pressure, and there are complex safety risk issues. This paper proposes a hydrogen leakage risk assessment method of HECS based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN). Firstly, the bow-tie model is mapped to the DBN model, and the prior probability of the DBN model is obtained using intuitionistic fuzzy theory, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, and an improved similarity aggregation algorithm. Then, leakage noise or gate models are introduced to improve the conditional probability table of the DBN model, and Weibull distributions are used to construct the probability transfer process between different time periods. Finally, through practical case studies, it is shown that the proposed method can effectively predict the dynamic probability and potential consequences of failure events through time series information. Sensitivity analysis proves the practicality and robustness of the proposed method. The research results can provide theoretical support for risk assessment and daily maintenance of HECS.

Risk analysis and assessment of underwater glider mission failure using Dynamic Bayesian Network method

The Autonomous Underwater Glider (AUG), with its extended operational endurance, encounters various uncertain risks during diverse mission tasks. Therefore, conducting dynamic risk analysis is crucial for implementing subsequent decisions and improving equipment safety. This paper combines Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to develop a customized dynamic risk assessment method for AUG task failure under multiple risk factors. Firstly, preliminary risk factors are identified by FTA using existing experimental data. Next, transformation rules are constructed to map FTA into a basic DBN model. Then, parameters such as conditional probabilities are determined through logic gates and parameter learning, and the proposed model is validated based on axioms. Finally, key risk factors are identified based on actual failure data. The research results indicate that the key risk factors leading to AUG task failure are progressive abnormalities such as biofouling and ocean current disturbance. The method proposed in this paper can achieve dynamic risk assessment, providing strong references for operators in making decisions for subsequent tasks.

Predicting seagrass ecosystem resilience to marine heatwave events of variable duration, frequency and re‐occurrence patterns with gaps

AbstractBackgroundSeagrass, a vital primary producer habitat, is crucial for maintaining high biodiversity and offers numerous ecosystem services globally. The increasing severity and frequency of marine heatwaves, exacerbated by climate change, pose significant risks to seagrass meadows.AimsThis study acknowledges the uncertainty and variability of marine heatwave scenarios and aims to aid managers and policymakers in understanding simulated responses of seagrass to different durations, frequencies and recurrence gaps of marine heatwaves.Materials and MethodsUsing expert knowledge and observed data, we refined a global Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model for a specific case study on Halophila ovalis in Leschenault Estuary, Australia. The model evaluates the potential impact of marine heatwaves on seagrass resilience, examining stress resistance, recovery and extinction risk.ResultsSimulations of different marine heatwave scenarios reveal significant impacts on seagrass ecosystems. Scenarios ranged from 30‐ to 90‐day heatwaves, with longer durations causing more significant biomass decline, reduced resistance, higher extinction risk and prolonged recovery. For instance, recovery time may increase from 18 to 26 months with four 60‐day and from 24 to 47 months with four 90‐day marine heatwave events. Increasing the frequency of marine heatwaves from one to four annual events, with no gaps between occurrences, could raise extinction risk from 11% to 55% for 60‐day events and from 17% to 83% for 90‐day events. However, introducing gaps between heatwaves enhanced resilience, with spaced events showing lower extinction risks and quicker recovery than consecutive yearly events.DiscussionThe study demonstrates the DBN model's utility in simulating the impact of marine heatwaves on seagrass, providing tools for risk‐informed assessment of management and restoration efforts. While these simulations align with existing research on temperature impacts on seagrass, they are not empirical.ConclusionFurther research is necessary to expand our understanding of climate change effects on seagrass ecosystems, guide policy and develop strategies to strengthen marine ecosystem resilience.

Research on entertainment robots based on artificial intelligence interaction for human posture recognition and sports activity monitoring

With the application of artificial intelligence technology in sports activity monitoring, new technologies such as interactive robots and the Internet of Things are being more widely used, which can provide entertainment and interactive guidance for sports training. This article analyzes the research on human pose recognition and sports activity monitoring of entertainment robots based on artificial intelligence interaction. This paper designs and develops an entertainment robot system that can recognize human posture and monitor physical activities. Users can interact with the robot and get real-time feedback about their posture and activities, thereby improving motor skills and physical fitness. After in-depth analysis of the theory of dynamic Bayesian network, we used EM algorithm to build a dynamic Bayesian network model, carried out detailed research on the random variables represented by the nodes of the dynamic model, and used the Internet of Things human posture recognition technology to extract the features of human behavior according to the characteristics of human behavior. The results show that the attitude recognition accuracy can be improved by adding the dynamic Bayesian network based on the random forest algorithm. The entertainment robot can accurately identify human posture and monitor sports activities, and has good real-time and stability. Through interaction with the robot, users can get personalized suggestions for individual postures and activities, improving the training effect and enjoyment of physical activities. Therefore, through the in-depth research and analysis of the dynamic Bayesian network and the human posture recognition of the Internet of Things, it is found that the sports activity monitoring system proposed in this paper can comprehensively monitor students’ sports activities, so as to achieve the goal of comprehensively improving students’ physical fitness.

Merging multi-level evidential observations for dynamic reliability assessment of hierarchical multi-state systems: A dynamic Bayesian network approach

Dynamic reliability assessment has offered a new paradigm for engineered systems to integrate multi-level observations to update the reliability measures of a specific running system. The existent work on dynamic reliability assessment can only leverage precise observations and cannot be straightforwardly implemented in scenarios where observations are imprecise. However, the observations are inevitably imprecise owing to the limited accuracy of inspection techniques and vague judgments of the system state. In engineering scenarios, multi-state systems (MSSs) with a hierarchical structure are commonly existent, and the imprecise observations can be collected across multiple physical levels of the system. In this article, the uncertainty associated with imprecise observations is characterized by the evidence theory, and it can be therefore regarded as an evidential form. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model is utilized to evaluate the reliability of hierarchical MSSs with multi-level evidential observations. Subsequently, the evidence theory is implemented to quantify epistemic uncertainties associated with imprecise observations. These observations, sourced from multiple physical levels, are merged by the DBN model using the Dempster rule of combination (DRC) to update the reliability of a specific running system in a dynamic fashion. The feasibility and correctness of the proposed method have been demonstrated through a numerical case and a real engineering case of a kerosene filling control system (KFCS), and the result indicates that the proposed DBN-based algorithm methods have high applicability and generalizability.

Analyzing the impact of cyber-attacks on the performance of digital twin-based industrial organizations

Digital twin is a virtual copy of their “real-world counterparts”, which refer to physical objects, systems, or entities that exist in the physical world. They share valuable information about how the system works by connecting the replica with the real product via the internet and sensors. In digital twin organizations, industrial control systems and the internet are the main sources of data collection and synchronization, resulting in an increase in cyber-attacks. As a result, they could cause data leaks and be used by hackers to launch attacks without being detected. Researching the appropriate defenses against such attacks is of paramount interest. To that end, in this study, we build an integrated model utilizing the combination of a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) and a Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) to analyze the considerable consequences of cyberattacks on a digital twin-based organization over different time period. DTMC models recovery and vulnerability for DT-based organizations, and then it is paired with the DBN model to simulate the cyberattack propagation behavior in the organization's IT performance. Next, we calculate the organization's work level and total expected utility under two different cyber-attack scenarios to determine its IT performance and financial behavior. Finally, we evaluate the organization's IT system's reliability and resilience after implementing two prevention mechanisms. Result indicates that Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) cyberattack can cause more destruction to the digital twin organization's IT system than a malware attack in terms of cyberattack propagation, work and utility level, reliability, and resilience capability. The findings of the analysis hold practical applicability in real-world settings, enabling the identification of high-risk cyberattacks within DT-based organizations, the analysis and prediction of an organization's IT performance during actual cyberattacks, and the formulation of effective prevention strategies to address cyber security concerns within DT-based organizations.

Bayesian Structure Learning for Climate Model Evaluation

AbstractA Bayesian structure learning approach is employed to compare and contrast interactions between the major climate teleconnections over the recent past as revealed in reanalyses and climate model simulations from leading Meteorological Centers. In a previous study, the authors demonstrated a general framework using homogeneous Dynamic Bayesian Network models constructed from reanalyzed time series of empirical climate indices to compare probabilistic graphical models. Reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to provide uncertainty quantification for selecting the respective network structures. The incorporation of confidence measures in structural features provided by the Bayesian approach is key to yielding informative measures of the differences between products if network‐based approaches are to be used for model evaluation, particularly as point estimates alone may understate the relevant uncertainties. Here we compare models fitted from the NCEP/NCAR and JRA‐55 reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations in terms of associations for which there is high posterior confidence. Examination of differences in the posterior probabilities assigned to edges of the directed acyclic graph provides a quantitative summary of departures in the CMIP5 models from reanalyses. In general terms the climate model simulations are in better agreement with reanalyses where tropical processes dominate, and autocorrelation time scales are long. Seasonal effects are shown to be important when examining tropical‐extratropical interactions with the greatest discrepancies and largest uncertainties present for the Southern Hemisphere teleconnections.

Fatigue Crack and Residual Life Prediction Based on an Adaptive Dynamic Bayesian Network

Monitoring the health status of aerospace structures during their service lives is a critical endeavor, aimed at precisely evaluating their operational condition through observation data and physical modeling. This study proposes a probabilistic assessment approach utilizing Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs), enhanced by an improved adaptive particle filtering technique. This approach combines physical modeling with various predictive sources, encompassing cognitive uncertainties inherent in stochastic predictions and crack propagation forecasts. By employing crack observation data, it facilitates predictions of crack growth and the residual life of metal structure. To demonstrate the efficacy of this method, the research leverages data from three-point bending and single-edge tension fatigue tests. It gathers data on crack length during the fatigue crack progression, integrating these findings with digital twin theory to forecast the residual fatigue life of the specimens. The outcomes show that the adaptive DBN model can precisely predict fatigue crack propagation in test specimens, offering a potential tool for the online health assessment and life evaluation for aerospace structures.

Dynamic Bayesian network-based situational awareness and course of action decision-making support model

In this paper, we developed a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to quantify uncertainties on battlefields. The model consists of the enemy's intention prediction model and the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) reliability model quantified by using the sensor detection probability. We calibrated and validated the DBN using a historical dataset based on actual provocations by comprehensively referencing open-source intelligence, including news articles from mass media and official announcements of the Ministry of National Defense. The calibrated model was then used to predict the enemy's intention in the near future, and the accuracy of the model was 84.6%. We suggested an appropriate course of action (COA) based on the enemy's intention to expedite decision-making. We further studied the interaction between the predicted enemy's intention and the selected COA. The main results of this paper are that various information regarding enemy actions, either equality or inequality, can be incorporated into the decision-making process.