Hydrogen leakage risk assessment of HECS based on dynamic bayesian network

Abstract

As a new energy system, the hydrogen-electric coupling system（HECS） involves complex conditions with multiple hazards such as electricity, hydrogen, heat, and high pressure, and there are complex safety risk issues. This paper proposes a hydrogen leakage risk assessment method of HECS based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN). Firstly, the bow-tie model is mapped to the DBN model, and the prior probability of the DBN model is obtained using intuitionistic fuzzy theory, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, and an improved similarity aggregation algorithm. Then, leakage noise or gate models are introduced to improve the conditional probability table of the DBN model, and Weibull distributions are used to construct the probability transfer process between different time periods. Finally, through practical case studies, it is shown that the proposed method can effectively predict the dynamic probability and potential consequences of failure events through time series information. Sensitivity analysis proves the practicality and robustness of the proposed method. The research results can provide theoretical support for risk assessment and daily maintenance of HECS.