Dynamic Bayesian network-based situational awareness and course of action decision-making support model

Abstract

In this paper, we developed a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model to quantify uncertainties on battlefields. The model consists of the enemy's intention prediction model and the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) reliability model quantified by using the sensor detection probability. We calibrated and validated the DBN using a historical dataset based on actual provocations by comprehensively referencing open-source intelligence, including news articles from mass media and official announcements of the Ministry of National Defense. The calibrated model was then used to predict the enemy's intention in the near future, and the accuracy of the model was 84.6%. We suggested an appropriate course of action (COA) based on the enemy's intention to expedite decision-making. We further studied the interaction between the predicted enemy's intention and the selected COA. The main results of this paper are that various information regarding enemy actions, either equality or inequality, can be incorporated into the decision-making process.