Analyzing the impact of cyber-attacks on the performance of digital twin-based industrial organizations

Abstract

Digital twin is a virtual copy of their “real-world counterparts”, which refer to physical objects, systems, or entities that exist in the physical world. They share valuable information about how the system works by connecting the replica with the real product via the internet and sensors. In digital twin organizations, industrial control systems and the internet are the main sources of data collection and synchronization, resulting in an increase in cyber-attacks. As a result, they could cause data leaks and be used by hackers to launch attacks without being detected. Researching the appropriate defenses against such attacks is of paramount interest. To that end, in this study, we build an integrated model utilizing the combination of a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) and a Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) to analyze the considerable consequences of cyberattacks on a digital twin-based organization over different time period. DTMC models recovery and vulnerability for DT-based organizations, and then it is paired with the DBN model to simulate the cyberattack propagation behavior in the organization's IT performance. Next, we calculate the organization's work level and total expected utility under two different cyber-attack scenarios to determine its IT performance and financial behavior. Finally, we evaluate the organization's IT system's reliability and resilience after implementing two prevention mechanisms. Result indicates that Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) cyberattack can cause more destruction to the digital twin organization's IT system than a malware attack in terms of cyberattack propagation, work and utility level, reliability, and resilience capability. The findings of the analysis hold practical applicability in real-world settings, enabling the identification of high-risk cyberattacks within DT-based organizations, the analysis and prediction of an organization's IT performance during actual cyberattacks, and the formulation of effective prevention strategies to address cyber security concerns within DT-based organizations.