Direct Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Ocean warming threatens key trophic interactions supporting a commercial fishery in a climate change hotspot.

Worldwide, rising ocean temperatures are causing declines and range shifts in marine species. The direct effects of climate change on the biology of marine organisms are often well documented; yet, knowledge on the indirect effects, particularly through trophic interactions, is largely lacking. We provide evidence of ocean warming decoupling critical trophic interactions supporting a commercially important mollusc in a climate change hotspot. Dietary assessments of the Australian blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) indicate primary dependency on a widespread macroalgal species (Phyllospora comosa) which we show to be in state of decline due to ocean warming, resulting in abalone biomass reductions. Niche models suggest further declines in P.comosa over the coming decades and ongoing risks to H.rubra. This study highlights the importance of studies from climate change hotspots and understanding the interplay between climate and trophic interactions when determining the likely response of marine species to environmental changes.

Phenological shifts induced by climate change amplify drought for broad-leaved trees at low elevations in Switzerland

Climate change alters the bioclimatic conditions during the growing period of trees directly, but also indirectly by causing shifts in spring and autumn leaf phenology that lead to changes in the timing and length of the growing period. Several studies researched the ecological consequences of direct climate change effects on bioclimatic conditions during the growing period of trees. However, the complementary and indirect effects through phenological shifts on these conditions have been insufficiently investigated. We analysed 49088 leaf unfolding and leaf colouring dates of six major European tree species from Switzerland, observed between 200 and 1900 m a.s.l. during 1961–2018. We estimated phenological trends, the resulting changes in bioclimatic conditions during the growing period, and the relative contributions of phenological shifts towards these changes. Our results show that climate change advanced leaf unfolding by up to –3.0 days/decade since 1985. Leaf colouring was mainly delayed at low elevations and was advanced or delayed at high elevations with species-specific rates between –3.1 and +4.0 days/decade. While the length of the growing period and growing degree-days increased for most species after 1985, precipitation during the growing period predominantly decreased by up to –43.6 mm/decade. Furthermore, drought intensity during the growing period (based on the number of days with negative water balance) increased significantly for most species, reaching +6.7 days/decade at low elevations. Phenological shifts amplified the trends towards drier conditions by up to +81% at low elevations for beech, rowan, and sycamore, but weakened them by up to –84% at high elevations for beech, rowan, sycamore, and larch. These findings indicate widely increased drought stress, especially at lower elevations. Further, we conclude that future forest net ecosystem productivity in Central Europe will depend strongly on elevation and species composition, despite a general lengthening of the growing period for trees.

The changes in species composition mediate direct effects of climate change on future fire regimes of boreal forests in northeastern China

Abstract Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature rise, changes in seasonal precipitation, wind patterns and atmospheric stability) affect fire regimes of boreal forests by altering fire behaviour, fire seasons and fuel moisture. Climate change also alters species composition and fuel characteristics, which subsequently alter fire regimes. However, indirect effects of climate change are often simplified or neglected in the direct climate–fire relationship models and dynamic global vegetation models. This may result in high uncertainties associated with existing projections of fire regimes for climate change scenarios. Moreover, few studies have examined fire regime predictions beyond the 21st century, and consequently, how the fire regimes of boreal forests would respond to climate change at the long term (>100 years) are not clear. We develop a coupled modelling framework integrating direct and indirect effects of climate change to predict fire occurrence probability and burned area for boreal forests in northeastern China. We applied repeated measures ANOVA to quantify direct and indirect effects of climate change on fire regimes in the short (0–50 years), medium (60–100 years) and long term (150–200 years). Results showed that for the 21st century, direct effects of climate change are likely to exert a stronger influence on fire regimes than indirect effects. However, increases in fire occurrence probability and burned area will accelerate the transition of boreal forests to temperate forests in the period 2100–2200, and thereby reduce fire occurrence probability and burned area. This suggests that vegetation change will mediate direct effects of climate change on fire regimes of boreal forests at the long term. Synthesis and applications. Vegetation change will mediate direct effects of climate change on fire regimes of boreal forests at the long term. This finding suggested that policymakers may consider adaptive management by planting deciduous species to reduce fire occurrence probability and resistant management by reducing competition to promote boreal species under changing climate conditions.

Mitigating the impact of bad rainy seasons in poor agricultural regions to tackle deforestation

Land use changes are known to account for over 20% of human greenhouse gas emissions and tree cover losses can significantly influence land-climate dynamics. Land-climate feedbacks have been identified and evaluated for a long time. However, in addition to the direct effect of climate change on forest biomes, recent sparse evidence has shown that land use changes may increase as a result of weather shocks. In Western and Central Africa, agriculture is the main source of income and employment for rural populations. Economies rely on agricultural production, which is largely rainfed, and therefore dependent predominantly upon seasonal rainfall. In this article, I explore the impact of seasonal rainfall quality on deforestation, by combining high-resolution remotely-sensed annual tree cover loss, land cover, human activity and daily rainfall data. I show that in poor regions that are mainly reliant on rainfed agriculture, a bad rainy season leads to large deforestation shocks. These shocks notably depend on the proportion of agricultural land and on the remoteness of the areas in question, as remoteness determines the ability to import food and the existence of alternative income sources. In areas with significant forest cover, a short rainfall season leads to a 15% increase in deforestation. In unconnected areas with small proportions of crop area, the increase in deforestation reaches 20%. Findings suggest that a refined understanding of the land use changes caused by rainfall shocks might be used to improve the design and effectiveness of development, adaptation and conservation policies.

Direct effects of climate change on productivity of European aquaculture

Aquaculture managers and industry must take into account the impact of climate change on production and environmental quality to ensure that sector growth is sustainable over the coming decades, a key requirement for food security. The potential effects of climate change on aquaculture range from changes to production capacity in existing cultivation areas to changes in the areas themselves, which may become unsuitable for particular species, but also suitable for new species. The prediction of where and how such changes may occur is challenging, not least because the cultivated species may themselves exhibit plasticity, which makes it difficult to forecast the degree to which different locations and culture types may be affected. This work presents a modelling approach used to predict the potential effects of climate change on aquaculture, considering six key finfish and shellfish species of economic importance in Europe: Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata), sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax), Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas), blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) and Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis). The focus is on effects on physiology, growth performance and environmental footprint, and the resultant economic impact at the farm scale. Climate projections for present-day conditions; mid-century (2040–2060) and end-of-century (2080–2100) were extracted from regionally downscaled global climate models and used to force bioenergetic models. For each of those time periods, two different carbon concentration scenarios were considered: a moderate situation (IPCC RCP 4.5) and an extreme situation (IPCC RCP 8.5). Projected temperature changes will have variable effects on growth depending on the species and geographic region. From the case studies analysed, gilthead bream farmed in sea cages in the western Mediterranean was the most vulnerable, whereas offshore-suspended mussel culture in SW Portugal was least affected. Most of the marine finfish simulated were projected to have decreased feeding efficiency in both mid-century and end-of-century climate scenarios. Bivalve shellfish showed a decreasing trend with respect to most productivity parameters as climate change progresses, under both emission scenarios. As a general trend across species and regions, economic uncertainty is expected to increase under all future projections.

Role of Spatial Analysis in Avoiding Climate Change Maladaptation: A Systematic Review

With the rapid development of climate change adaptation over recent decades, a considerable amount of evidence has been collected on maladaptation associated with climate change adaptation initiatives, particularly in terms of risk transfer and risk substitution. Increasing our understanding of maladaptation is important for avoiding negative outcomes of adaptation project implementation. However, maladaptation has received limited research attention. Previous research has focused on frameworks that can assist in defining and avoiding maladaptive risk and be applied to adaptation initiative planning processes. Adaptation may cause more significant influences on spatial land change than the direct effect of climate change does. Identifying the adaptation consequences that are likely to result in maladaptation is crucial. A combination of spatial land analysis and climate change analysis can be used for the aforementioned identification. However, empirical case studies on methods that can assess and evaluate the risk of maladaptation by integrating spatial and temporal aspects in a land spatial modeling tool have not been conducted. The present study aimed to fill this research gap by exploring the existing knowledge on maladaptation to climate change. We examined the interaction among spatial analysis, evaluated maladaptation frameworks, and project design to extend our conceptual understanding on maladaptation to climate change. We adopted a systematic review method that involved considering several questions including the following: (a) What are the definitions and categories of maladaptation? (b) What methods and theoretical frameworks exist for the assessment and evaluation of maladaptive risk? (c) How have climate-related research communities considered issues of maladaptation? (d) What are the experimental studies on land use change that can be referred to for minimizing maladaptive risks in future adaptation planning? In conclusion, further research on maladaptation should integrate spatial land analysis methods to facilitate the identification and avoidance of maladaptive risk in the initial stage of adaptation planning.

Environmental Risks from Pollution and Climate Change: An Updated Review

Climate change expected for the next century could occur in an ecosystem already stressed by UV-B amplification, air pollution, and rising nutrient fluxes. We investigated the relationships among these many environmental challenges by focusing on specific habitats, temperate zone forests, freshwater lakes, and estuaries. The increase in oxidant levels across the lower atmosphere and hydrosphere is a significant chemical consequence of atmospheric change. These changes may result in net nutrient transfer from land to coastal ocean, resulting in forest degradation and coastal eutrophication. Local adjustments may already be occurring, but the synergistic nature of the pressures threatens to speed up the process over the next few decades. Aside from any direct effects of climate change, the worsening of current environmental problems is a significant indirect effect.

Response of Forest Phyllophagous Insects to Climate Change

Modern climate characteristics have a strong impact on plants, insects, and biogeocoenotic relations among them. This is unambiguously supported by multiple studies worldwide, the reports of which are briefly reviewed in the present article. Most of the authors agree that air temperature is the most important factor directly affecting the development and population level of insects. Ranges of plant and insect species are shifting northwards and to higher altitudes. Phenological phases come ahead of time in spring and later in fall, which results in longer growth season. Time-series analysis and trends in five major weather elements in the southern forest-steppe zone in Voronezh oblast have revealed the weakening of climate continentality, increased precipitation over the growth period, and a higher frequency of extreme weather events. Additionally, the study detected changes in the population-level dynamics of insects, specifically, the gypsy moth, the green oak leaf roller, and the winter moth, which commonly occur on this plot, and the disturbance in their relations with host plants. The harmfulness of some species declines, while that of other species rises. Modeling allows one to predict some consequences of the direct effects of climate change on relationships between phyllophagous insects and their host plants. Delayed consequences associated with indirect climatic forcing are hard to predict. They will depend on the character of climate change and on response of plants and insects driven by their adaptation mechanisms.

Hot fish: The response to climate change by regional fisheries bodies

This paper explores institutional responses from Regional Fisheries Bodies (RFBs) to climate change. Fisheries management is highly dependent on the stability or predictability of targeted fish populations. Oceanic changes occurring as a result of climate change will see continuing and potentially irreversible deviations from the conditions of fisheries past. These changes present challenges to fisheries management at all scales – from local to international – relating to food security, sustainability, and ecological integrity. Areas of measurably warmer ocean, or ‘hotspots’, are a very clear indicator of direct climate change effects. RFBs with hotspots in their areas of competence were chosen for this study. Three levels of institutional engagement were developed: Awareness of climate change; Learning about climate change; Action taken by the institutions. While 94% of institutions demonstrated awareness of climate change and 82% demonstrated learning about climate change, only 41% demonstrated some form of action; and these were mainly procedural and administrative. Only two of the RFBs considered made explicit statements about incorporating climate change into future fishing management plans. The inference is that RFBs are largely practising business-as-usual, with the implication that many exploited fish populations will face additional survival pressure as the sea around them alters.

Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies.

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between -8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and -22 to -6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.

Climate, landscape diversity, and food sovereignty in arid Australia: The firestick farming hypothesis.

Climate change has long been recognized as a significant driver of dietary diversity and dietary quality. An often overlooked aspect of climate change are shifts in fire regimes, which have the potential to drastically affect landscape diversity, species distributions, and ultimately, human diets. Here, we investigate whether the fire regimes shaped by Indigenous Australians change landscape diversity in ways that improve dietary quality, considering both the diversity and the quantity of traditional foods in the diet. We use structural equation modeling to explore two causal models of dietary quality, one focused on the direct effects of climate change and resource depression, the other incorporating the dietary effects of landscape diversity, itself a product of fire-created patchiness. We draw on a focal camp dataset covering 10 years of observations of Martu foraging income in the Western Desert of Australia. We find strong support for the hypothesis that fire-created patchiness improves diet quality. Climate change (cumulative 2-year rainfall) has only an indirect effect on dietary quality; the availability of traditional foods is mediated primarily through the landscape diversity shaped by fire. Our model suggests that the loss of the indigenous fire mosaic may lead to worsening availability of traditional foods, measured as both caloric intake and diet diversity. Because the effects of rainfall are mediated through landscape diversity, increased rainfall may not compensate for the recent changes in fire regimes resulting from the loss of Aboriginal fire from the landscape.

Rain–Induced Flood Prediction for Niger Delta Sub-Region of Nigeria Using Neural Networks

Climate change generates so many direct and indirect effects on the environment. Some of those effects have serious consequences. Rain-induced flooding is one of the direct effects of climate change and its impact on the environment is usually devastating and worrisome. Floods are one of the most commonly occurring disasters and have caused significant damage to life, including agriculture and economy. They are usually caused in areas where there is excessive downpour and poor drainage systems. The study uses Feedforward Multilayer Neural Network to perform short-term prediction of the amount of rainfall flood for the Niger Delta sub region of Nigeria given previous rainfall data for a specified period of time. The data for training and testing of the Neural Network was sourced from Weather Underground official web site https://www.wunderground.com. An iterative Methodology was used and implemented in MATLAB. We adopted multi-layer Feedforward Neural Networks. The study accurately predicts the rain-induced flood for the Niger Delta sub region of Nigeria.

Rain–Induced Flood Prediction for Niger Delta Sub-Region of Nigeria Using Neural Networks

Climate change generates so many direct and indirect effects on the environment. Some of those effects have serious consequences. Rain-induced flooding is one of the direct effects of climate change and its impact on the environment is usually devastating and worrisome. Floods are one of the most commonly occurring disasters and have caused significant damage to life, including agriculture and economy. They are usually caused in areas where there is excessive downpour and poor drainage systems. The study uses Feedforward Multilayer Neural Network to perform short-term prediction of the amount of rainfall flood for the Niger Delta sub region of Nigeria given previous rainfall data for a specified period of time. The data for training and testing of the Neural Network was sourced from Weather Underground official web site https://www.wunderground.com. An iterative Methodology was used and implemented in MATLAB. We adopted multi-layer Feedforward Neural Networks. The study accurately predicts the rain-induced flood for the Niger Delta sub region of Nigeria.

How Does Climate Change Affect Rice Yield in China?

The global warming phenomenon has undoubtedly brought unprecedented challenges to rice production, vital for food security in Southeast Asian countries and China. Most studies on this topic have focused narrowly on the direct effect of climate change on rice yield, neglecting the indirect effect. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2016, in this paper, we propose and test a mediational effect model to examine the mechanisms of how climate change affects rice yield. We find that climate change leads to changes in functional irrigation areas, farmers’ fertilizing behavior, and agricultural labor supply, and it is these mediating factors that effectively transmit the impact of climate change to China’s rice production. The positive indirect impact of climate change on the factors of production often partially or overly compensates for the adverse direct effect of climate change on rice yield, leading to a surprising observation of the association of climate change with increased rice yield, at least in the short run. We also provide some preliminary policy advice based on the analysis.

Greater topoclimatic control of above- versus below-ground communities.

Assessing the degree to which climate explains the spatial distributions of different taxonomic and functional groups is essential for anticipating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Most effort so far has focused on above‐ground organisms, which offer only a partial view on the response of biodiversity to environmental gradients. Here including both above‐ and below‐ground organisms, we quantified the degree of topoclimatic control on the occurrence patterns of >1,500 taxa and phylotypes along a c. 3,000 m elevation gradient, by fitting species distribution models. Higher model performances for animals and plants than for soil microbes (fungi, bacteria and protists) suggest that the direct influence of topoclimate is stronger on above‐ground species than on below‐ground microorganisms. Accordingly, direct climate change effects are predicted to be stronger for above‐ground than for below‐ground taxa, whereas factors expressing local soil microclimate and geochemistry are likely more important to explain and forecast the occurrence patterns of soil microbiota. Detailed mapping and future scenarios of soil microclimate and microhabitats, together with comparative studies of interacting and ecologically dependent above‐ and below‐ground biota, are thus needed to understand and realistically forecast the future distribution of ecosystems.

Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators

Abstract. A future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climate, growing human populations, and shifting socioeconomic conditions means that the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. These changes will affect not only agricultural land but terrestrial ecosystems in general. Here, we use the coupled land use and vegetation model LandSyMM (Land System Modular Model) to quantify future land use change (LUC) and resulting impacts on ecosystem service indicators relating to carbon sequestration, runoff, biodiversity, and nitrogen pollution. We additionally hold certain variables, such as climate or land use, constant to assess the relative contribution of different drivers to the projected impacts. Some ecosystem services depend critically on land use and management: for example, carbon storage, the gain in which is more than 2.5 times higher in a low-LUC scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0; SSP4-60) than a high-LUC one with the same carbon dioxide and climate trajectory (SSP3-60). Other trends are mostly dominated by the direct effects of climate change and carbon dioxide increase. For example, in those two scenarios, extreme high monthly runoff increases across 54 % and 53 % of land, respectively, with a mean increase of 23 % in both. Scenarios in which climate change mitigation is more difficult (SSPs 3 and 5) have the strongest impacts on ecosystem service indicators, such as a loss of 13 %–19 % of land in biodiversity hotspots and a 28 % increase in nitrogen pollution. Evaluating a suite of ecosystem service indicators across scenarios enables the identification of tradeoffs and co-benefits associated with different climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and socioeconomic developments.

Impact of Abiotic Stresses on Plant Virus Transmission by Aphids.

Plants regularly encounter abiotic constraints, and plant response to stress has been a focus of research for decades. Given increasing global temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO2 levels and the occurrence of water stress episodes driven by climate change, plant biochemistry, in particular, plant defence responses, may be altered significantly. Environmental factors also have a wider impact, shaping viral transmission processes that rely on a complex set of interactions between, at least, the pathogen, the vector, and the host plant. This review considers how abiotic stresses influence the transmission and spread of plant viruses by aphid vectors, mainly through changes in host physiology status, and summarizes the latest findings in this research field. The direct effects of climate change and severe weather events that impact the feeding behaviour of insect vectors as well as the major traits (e.g., within-host accumulation, disease severity and transmission) of viral plant pathogens are discussed. Finally, the intrinsic capacity of viruses to react to environmental cues in planta and how this may influence viral transmission efficiency is summarized. The clear interaction between biotic (virus) and abiotic stresses is a risk that must be accounted for when modelling virus epidemiology under scenarios of climate change.

Impact of Climate Change on the Number of Threatened Species: International Evidence

Global warming is the price for economic development. Rapid industrialization produces greenhouse gases that trap the heat and make the earth warmer. The rise in temperature and changes in precipitation resulted in extreme weather conditions. Global climate change affects both physical and biological environments and the impacts on biodiversity is directly and indirectly. The direct effects of climate change includes the increased in temperature and precipitation that affect individual organisms, populations, species distribution and ecosystem compositions and functions. The indirect effects of climate change are through increased salinity and extreme weather events such as floods, cyclones and droughts that will have a profound negative impacts on the forest and biodiversity. The present study investigates the impact of climate change on the number of threatened species as proxy for biodiversity loss using a cross-national data consisting of 98 countries. We have estimated the impact of temperature, precipitation and the number of natural disasters occurrences on the number of threatened species, in particular birds, fishes, mammals, plants and reptiles. As control variables, we have considered government effectiveness (proxy for good governance) and the level of economic development (proxy for wealth). By employing Ordinary Least Square (OLS) with robust standard error and quantile regressions analyses, our results suggest that all three climate change indicators – temperature, precipitation and the number of natural disasters occurrences increase the number of threatened species (biodiversity loss). Higher economic development also affect the number of threatened species positively. On the other hand, good governance such as government effectiveness reduces the number of threatened species. Thus, practicing good governance, promoting conservation of the environment and the control of greenhouse gasses would able to mitigate biodiversity loss.

Ignoring biotic interactions overestimates climate change effects: The potential response of the spotted nutcracker to changes in climate and resource plants

AbstractAimProjecting future distributions of species under climate change remains a particular challenge for species that are trophically interacting. Interaction partners are often assumed to react differently to climate change, causing spatial mismatches in future distributions and increased extinction risks. We compare potential direct effects of climate change with combined direct and indirect effects mediated via food plants on a highly specialized bird species.LocationEurope.TaxonEuropean spotted nutcracker (Nucifraga caryocatactes).MethodsWe used climate‐based species distribution models to project probabilities of occurrence of European spotted nutcrackers and their main food sources, Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra) and common hazel (Corylus avellana) under climate change. We combined direct climate change effects on the bird and indirect effects via the food plants by calculating the probabilities of plants and nutcrackers occurring together.ResultsWe find considerable projected northward shifts in future occurrences of nutcrackers under climate change and similar effects on hazel. In contrast, projections for Swiss stone pine indicate minor altitudinal upward shifts. Combined projections of direct and indirect effects of climate change indicate less pronounced shifts of nutcrackers’ occurrences, due to relatively small changes in pine's occurrences and to suitable hazel occurrence shifts.Main conclusionsOur study suggests that potential effects of climate change on the future distribution of the nutcracker might be overestimated when ignoring trophically interacting plants in future projections. Models of direct effects of climate change on nutcrackers’ occurrence probabilities project greater range losses than models of combined direct and indirect effects via resource plants. Therefore, considering biotic interactions does not necessarily increase the risks that climate change may impose on species distributions, but could reduce overestimation of potential range losses in rapidly changing environments.

Phenological responses to climate change in communities of plants species with contrasting functional strategies

Understanding why co-occurring plant species show differential phenological sensitivities to climate fluctuations, and more specifically to the joint variation in temperature and precipitation, is critical to make accurate predictions on how climate change could alter community dynamics and ecosystem functioning. However, the role that some relevant functional traits involved in resource uptake and/or stress tolerance could play on these inter-specific differences in phenological sensitivity remains largely unknown. In this study we evaluated experimentally how five co-occurring herbaceous species with contrasting functional strategies respond to current and ongoing climatic scenarios of increased temperature, decreased water availability and both abiotic changes acting interactively. To decompose the direct effect of climate change and the indirect effect of neighbors on plant performance and reproductive phenology, each of the five species was exposed to a density gradient of competitor species. Although the study species were more sensitive to changes in temperature than in water availability, the combined effect of both abiotic cues triggered very heterogeneous responses. Species with higher SLA values were particularly sensitive to climate change, delaying their reproduction and lengthening their flowering period under warmer scenarios while maintaining a high plant growth rate. In contrast, the species with the lowest SLA values exhibited less phenological variability to climate alterations, but they were more strongly affected by neighbor density compared to species with opposite trait values. These species-specific responses to climatic shifts altered the synchrony of phenological events at the community level. The most important changes appeared under the two scenarios of increased temperature, where 4 out of 5 species overlapped their flowering periods. Our findings indicate that the ongoing scenarios of increasing temperature and aridity could disrupt the phenological asynchrony within communities, and highlight the necessity of considering the interactive effects of temperature and precipitation to obtain an overall picture of climate change predictions on plant phenology and population dynamics.