Abstract
The global warming phenomenon has undoubtedly brought unprecedented challenges to rice production, vital for food security in Southeast Asian countries and China. Most studies on this topic have focused narrowly on the direct effect of climate change on rice yield, neglecting the indirect effect. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 1990 to 2016, in this paper, we propose and test a mediational effect model to examine the mechanisms of how climate change affects rice yield. We find that climate change leads to changes in functional irrigation areas, farmers’ fertilizing behavior, and agricultural labor supply, and it is these mediating factors that effectively transmit the impact of climate change to China’s rice production. The positive indirect impact of climate change on the factors of production often partially or overly compensates for the adverse direct effect of climate change on rice yield, leading to a surprising observation of the association of climate change with increased rice yield, at least in the short run. We also provide some preliminary policy advice based on the analysis.
Highlights
The significant impact of global climate change on the natural environment, economy, and society have drawn international attention [1]
Our results show that the increase in temperature and decrease of precipitation significantly reduce rice yield, which means that climate change significantly affects the agricultural output in China
It shows under the condition that climate change has a significant impact on the rice yield, the coefficients of EIA is significantly positive at the 1% level, which confirms the existence of the mediational effect of the effective irrigation area
Summary
The significant impact of global climate change on the natural environment, economy, and society have drawn international attention [1]. Scholars mainly focus on the impact of temperature and precipitation, two significant factors of climate conditions, on rice yield, and quality [7]. Yang and colleagues [9] use a regional calibrated crop model and found that a 1 ◦ C rise in temperature decreases rice yield by roughly 4% in the rice production areas. Quantitative analysis of the relationship between climate change and rice yield has been conducted to provide essential data for policymaking to solve food security and environmental sustainability problems. Existing research on this topic abounds from the aspects of biology and economics.
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