Direct Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Direct climate change impacts on growth and drought risk in blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) plantations in Australia

ABSTRACTAustralia’s climate is changing and Australia’s forests have been identified as vulnerable to climate change impacts. The process-based model CABALA, an ensemble of global circulation models, and a range of scenarios on plant response to elevated CO2 (eCO2) and site conditions, were used to predict the direct effects of climate change on the productivity and mortality risks for Australia’s blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) plantation estate. The modelling showed considerable uncertainty about future outcomes across large parts of the estate, with best-case and worst-case scenarios varying from decreased to increased production. In some areas we can be confident of future outcomes. Nevertheless, it is clear that, across the whole estate, appropriate management can reduce risk and ensure that we are able to capitalise on potential beneficial aspects of climate change. Under most future scenarios, without adaptation, the drier parts of the plantation estate are at risk. However, in all but the eastern areas of Western Australia, and at the driest margins of the estate in South Australia and Victoria, adaptation options can reduce risk and ensure productivity. Other areas currently at the cold margins of the estate, notably the highlands of Victoria and across Tasmania, appear to increase in productivity under most future scenarios. Even in those areas where productivity may potentially increase, experience suggests that pests and diseases may pose a risk. If we are to benefit from any aspect of climate change, then pursuit of best-practice sustainable forest management is critical. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts is associated with how photosynthesis in field-grown trees will respond to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (eCO2). Regional differences in global circulation model forecasts are important, particularly in Western Australia, where the extent of future rainfall decline significantly impacts predictions. Local site factors, exemplified in this study by soil depth, will play an important role in modulating climate change impacts, particularly through their role in constraining responses to eCO2.

Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences.

A major focus of current ecological research is to understand how global change makes species vulnerable to extirpation. To date, mechanistic ecophysiological analyses of global change vulnerability have focused primarily on the direct effects of changing abiotic conditions on whole-organism physiological traits, such as metabolic rate, locomotor performance, cardiac function, and critical thermal limits. However, species do not live in isolation within their physical environments, and direct effects of climate change are likely to be compounded by indirect effects that result from altered interactions with other species, such as competitors and predators. The Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology 2017 Symposium "Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences" was designed to synthesize multiple approaches to investigating the indirect effects of global change by bringing together researchers that study the indirect effects of global change from multiple perspectives across habitat, type of anthropogenic change, and level of biological organization. Our goal in bringing together researchers from different backgrounds was to foster cross-disciplinary insights into the mechanistic bases and higher-order ecological consequences of indirect effects of global change, and to promote collaboration among fields.

Nitrogen nutrition of beech forests in a changing climate: importance of plant-soil-microbe water, carbon, and nitrogen interactions

For 15+ years, a beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) dominated forest on calcareous soil was studied on two opposing slopes with contrasting microclimate in Tuttlingen, Swabian Alb, Germany. The cool-humid NE aspect of these slopes represents the majority of beech forests under current climate, the warmer and drier SW aspect represents beech forests under future climate conditions. The field studies were supplemented by investigations under controlled conditions. The research program aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of plant-soil-microbe water, carbon and nitrogen feedbacks in a changing climate and a holistic view of the sensitivity of beech to climate change. The results of comparative and experimental studies underpin the high vulnerability of adult beech and its natural regeneration on calcareous soil to both direct climate change effects on plant physiology and indirect effects mediated by soil biogeochemical cycles. Mechanisms contributing to this vulnerability at the ecosystem and organismic level indicate a high significance of competitive interactions of beech with other vegetation components and soil microbial communities. Obvious forest management practices such as selective felling did not necessarily counteract negative effects of climate change.

Coral Reef Ecosystems under Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

Coral reefs are found in a wide range of environments, where they provide food and habitat to a large range of organisms as well as other ecological goods and services. Warm-water coral reefs, for example, occupy shallow sunlit, warm and alkaline waters in order to grow and calcify at the high rates necessary to build and maintain their calcium carbonate structures. At deeper locations (40 – 150 m), “mesophotic” (low light) coral reefs accumulate calcium carbonate at much lower rates (if at all in some cases) yet remain important as habitat for a wide range of organisms, including those important for fisheries. Finally, even deeper, down to 2000 m or more, the so-called ‘cold-water’ coral reefs are found in the dark depths. Despite their importance, coral reefs are facing significant challenges from human activities including pollution, over-harvesting, physical destruction, and climate change. In the latter case, even lower greenhouse gas emission scenarios (such as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 4.5) are likely drive the elimination of most warm-water coral reefs by 2040-2050. Cold-water corals are also threatened by warming temperatures and ocean acidification although evidence of the direct effect of climate change is less clear. Evidence that coral reefs can adapt at rates which are sufficient for them to keep up with rapid ocean warming and acidification is minimal, especially given that corals are long-lived and hence have slow rates of evolution. Conclusions that coral reefs will migrate to higher latitudes as they warm are equally unfounded, with the observations of tropical species appearing at high latitudes ‘necessary but not sufficient’ evidence that entire coral reef ecosystems are shifting. On the contrary, coral reefs are likely to degrade rapidly over the next 20 years, presenting fundamental challenges for the 500 million people who derive food, income, coastal protection, and a range of other services from coral reefs. Unless rapid advances to the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement occur over the next decade, hundreds of millions of people are likely to face increasing amounts of poverty and social disruption, and, in some cases, regional insecurity.

Heat tolerance predicts the importance of species interaction effects as the climate changes.

Few studies have quantified the relative importance of direct effects of climate change on communities versus indirect effects that are mediated thorough species interactions, and the limited evidence is conflicting. Trait-based approaches have been popular in studies of climate change, but can they be used to estimate direct versus indirect effects? At the species level, thermal tolerance is a trait that is often used to predict winners and losers under scenarios of climate change. But thermal tolerance might also inform when species interactions are likely to be important because only subsets of species will be able to exploit the available warmer climatic niche space, and competition may intensify in the remaining, compressed cooler climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relative roles of the direct effects of temperature change and indirect effects of species interactions on forest ant communities that were heated as part of a large-scale climate manipulation at high- and low-latitude sites in eastern North America. Overall, we found mixed support for the importance of negative species interactions (competition), but found that the magnitude of these interaction effects was predictable based on the heat tolerance of the focal species. Forager abundance and nest site occupancy of heat-intolerant species were more often influenced by negative interactions with other species than by direct effects of temperature. Our findings suggest that measures of species-specific heat tolerance may roughly predict when species interactions will influence responses to global climate change.

Continental divide: Predicting climate-mediated fragmentation and biodiversity loss in the boreal forest.

Climate change threatens natural landscapes through shifting distribution and abundance of species and attendant change in the structure and function of ecosystems. However, it remains unclear how climate-mediated variation in species’ environmental niche space may lead to large-scale fragmentation of species distributions, altered meta-population dynamics and gene flow, and disrupted ecosystem integrity. Such change may be especially relevant when species distributions are restricted either spatially or to a narrow environmental niche, or when environments are rapidly changing. Here, we use range-wide environmental niche models to posit that climate-mediated range fragmentation aggravates the direct effects of climate change on species in the boreal forest of North America. We show that climate change will directly alter environmental niche suitability for boreal-obligate species of trees, birds and mammals (n = 12), with most species ranges becoming smaller and shifting northward through time. Importantly, species distributions will become increasingly fragmented, as characterized by smaller mean size and greater isolation of environmentally-suitable landscape patches. This loss is especially pronounced along the Ontario-Québec border, where the boreal forest is narrowest and roughly 78% of suitable niche space could disappear by 2080. Despite the diversity of taxa surveyed, patterns of range fragmentation are remarkably consistent, with our models predicting that spruce grouse (Dendragapus canadensis), boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), moose (Alces americanus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) could have entirely disjunct east-west population segments in North America. These findings reveal potentially dire consequences of climate change on population continuity and species diversity in the boreal forest, highlighting the need to better understand: 1) extent and primary drivers of anticipated climate-mediated range loss and fragmentation; 2) diversity of species to be affected by such change; 3) potential for rapid adaptation in the most strongly-affected areas; and 4) potential for invasion by replacement species.

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Modeling the Direct Effect of Climate Change on the Cereal Production in Tunisia: A Micro-spatial Panel Cointegration Analysis

Unlike previous studies, this paper, by employing a cointegration technique on panel data, economically investigates the direct effect of climate change on the cereal production in the long-term via a new cereal disaggregated databases covering the period 1979-2012 for 24 governorates in Tunisia within a multivariate panel framework. The Pedroni panel cointegration test indicates that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the considered variables with elasticity’s estimated positive and statistically significant in the long-run. The results generally confirm that in the long term there is a strong positive correlation between the cereal production and the direct effect of precipitation and temperature for the whole panel. At the micro-spatial level, results of the long-run equilibrium relationship show that the cereal production is extremely dependent on rainfall in most governorates of cereals producers, especially the Northwest region of Tunisia. In fact, there are several initiatives and policies that must be undertaken by Government in an attempt to improve the long term production of cereals in the most affected governorates by the phenomenon of climate change such as the development of several important and regionally-based institutions and cooperation, providing subsidies to farmers.

Adaptation of Root Crop Farming System to Climate Change in Ikwerre Local Government Area of Rivers State, Nigeria

This study examined adaptation of root crop farming system to climate change in Ikwerre Local Government Area of Rivers state, Nigeria. Seven towns were selected based on a population of five thousand and above from which one hundred and ninety-one respondents were randomly chosen. Sixty-six years’ data on climatic variables of rainfall, temperature and relative humidity were obtained from Nigeria Meteorological Agency between 1950-2015. Analyses were carried out using simple proportion for qualitative variables while mean and standard deviation were used in analyzing the qualitative variable. Similarly, the triangulation method involving qualitative and quantitative components in data generation was used. Results showed that, there had been a steady but gradual increase in the mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures over the study period of thirty years. The overall mean rainfall computed was 191.1 mm. In general, there was a shift increase in both rainfall and temperature during the period under study. The respondents attributed crop failure (100%), reduced crop yield (100%), increase incidence of pest and diseases (100%) and delay in planting period (100%) as direct effects of climate change. A steady trend in relative humidity of (84.3%) was recorded and the mean annual wind speed computed was 67.9 knots. The adapted strategies include delay planting period, crop diversification 100%, cultivation of early maturing crops such as maize, vegetables, intercropped with the root crops and changes in the time of farm operations (99.4%) as well as a change in the planting period and changing farm location (98.9%). The latter will in addition to other benefits reduce the incidences of pest and diseases that may be attracted to the same field if continuously cultivated with the same crops. An implementable policy of accessibility of finance to the real farmers is seriously advocated.

CLIMATE CHANGE & AGRICULTURE IN INDIA- EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF NATIONAL MISSION FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

Climate change has been the most serious challenge affecting agriculture in India where direct effects of climate change are expected to be very harsh. India will need to produce estimated 320 MT of food grains by the year 2025. Acknowledging the significant role of Science & Technology, India has since 2008 established “National Action Plan on Climate Change” which includes “National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture [NMSA]” among eight missions. NMSA aims at developing technologies & innovative agricultural practices and strengthening the capacity of farming communities to cope effectively with both climatic variability and changes. Adaptation and mitigation potential is nowhere more pronounced than in India where agricultural productivity remains low and poverty, vulnerability & food insecurity remain high. Against this background this development perspective article attempts to highlight the impact of climate change on agriculture in general and in India in particular and suggests the priority areas to accelerate the process of effective implementation of NMSA launched on June 26, 2015.

Hunting on a hot day: effects of temperature on interactions between African wild dogs and their prey.

As global temperatures increase, interactions between species are affected by changes in distribution, abundance and phenology, but also by changes in behavior. The heat dissipation limitation hypothesis suggests that the ability to dissipate heat commonly limits the activity of endotherms, a problem that should be particularly acute for cursorial predators and their prey in equatorial ecosystems. Allometric relationships suggest that heat dissipation should be a stronger constraint for larger species, so that (smaller) predators should be less affected than (larger) prey. We used data from 266 complete days of direct observation of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in five packs over a period of 2 yr to test how deviations of temperature from that expected for the time of day affected eight measures of hunting effort and success. We found that higher temperatures disadvantaged the prey of wild dogs more than the dogs themselves, with increased hunting success and shorter pursuits on warmer days. Broadly, our results demonstrate that effects of temperature on behavior can alter interactions between species, exacerbating or offsetting the direct effects of climate change.

Cultivars to face climate change effects on crops and weeds: a review

Climate change is caused by the release of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate change will impact many activities, but its effects on agricultural production could be acute. Estimates of annual damages in agriculture due to temperature increase or extended periods of drought will be more costly than damages in other activities. Yield losses are caused both by direct effects of climate change on crops and by indirect effects such as increased inputs in crop production for weed control. One possible solution to counteract the effects of climate change is to seek crop cultivars that are adapted to highly variable, extreme climatic conditions and pest changes. Here we review the effects of climate change on crop cultivars and weeds. Biomass increase will augment marketable yield by 8–70 % for C3 cereals, by 20–144 % for cash and vegetable crops, and by 6–35 % for flowers. Such positive effects could however be reduced by decreasing water and nutrient availability. Rising temperature will decrease yields of temperature-sensitive crops such as maize, soybean, wheat, and cotton or specialty crops such as almonds, grapes, berries, citrus, or stone fruits. Rice, which is expected to yield better under increased CO2, will suffer serious yield losses under high temperatures. Drought stress should decrease the production of tomato, soybean, maize, and cotton. Nevertheless, reviews on C4 photosynthesis response to water stress in interaction with CO2 concentration reveal that elevated CO2 concentration lessens the deleterious effect of drought on plant productivity. C3 weeds respond more strongly than C4 types to CO2 increases through biomass and leaf area increases. The positive response of C3 crops to elevated CO2 may make C4 weeds less competitive for C3 crops, whereas C3 weeds in C4 or C3 crops could become a problem, particularly in tropical regions. Temperature increases will mainly affect the distribution of weeds, particularly C4 type, by expanding their geographical range. This will enhance further yield losses and will affect weed management systems negatively. In addition, the expansion of invasive weed species such as itchgrass, cogongrass, and witchweed facilitated by temperature increases will increase the cost for their control. Under water or nutrient shortage scenarios, an r-strategist with characteristics in the order S-C-R, such as Palmer amaranth, large crabgrass, johnsongrass, and spurges, will most probably prevail. Selection of cultivars that secure high yields under climate change but also by competing weeds is of major importance. Traits related with (a) increased root/shoot ratio, (b) vernalization periods, (c) maturity, (d) regulation of node formation and/or internode distance, (e) harvest index variations, and (f) allelopathy merit further investigation. The cumulative effects of selecting a suitable stress tolerator-competitor cultivar will be reflected in reductions of environmental pollution, lower production costs, and sustainable food production.

Experiments link competition and climate change responses

AbstractSpecies interactions can have a larger impact on plant performance than direct effects of climate change itself, as shown by Rysavy et al. in this issue of the Journal of Vegetation Science. Their study illustrates different ways in which plant–plant interactions can change following climate change, stressing the need for experiments to disentangle direct and indirect impacts of climate change.

Area burned in alpine treeline ecotones reflects region-wide trends

The direct effects of climate change on alpine treeline ecotones – the transition zones between subalpine forest and non-forested alpine vegetation – have been studied extensively, but climate-induced changes in disturbance regimes have received less attention. To determine if recent increases in area burned extend to these higher-elevation landscapes, we analysed wildfires from 1984–2012 in eight mountainous ecoregions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains. We considered two components of the alpine treeline ecotone: subalpine parkland, which extends upward from subalpine forest and includes a fine-scale mosaic of forest and non-forested vegetation; and non-forested alpine vegetation. We expected these vegetation types to burn proportionally less than the entire ecoregion, reflecting higher fuel moisture and longer historical fire rotations. In four of eight ecoregions, the proportion of area burned in subalpine parkland (3%–8%) was greater than the proportion of area burned in the entire ecoregion (2%–7%). In contrast, in all but one ecoregion, a small proportion (≤4%) of the alpine vegetation burned. Area burned regionally was a significant predictor of area burned in subalpine parkland and alpine, suggesting that similar climatic drivers operate at higher and lower elevations or that fire spreads from neighbouring vegetation into the alpine treeline ecotone.

Wet bulb globe temperature across Western Turkey according to the ENSEMBLES project

The direct effects of climate change on workers' thermal comfort as well as its indirect effects on occupational health and safety are analysed. The region of interest is Western Turkey. The regional climate model (RCM) results of daily maximum air temperature and relative humidity from the ENSEMBLES project are used to form past and future projections. There are various indices used to observe the thermal comfort conditions for workers. In this research, wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is used for outdoor environments as outdoor workers make the prime target group. The seasonal spatial distribution of WBGT across the selected region during the reference period (1970-1999) in addition to alterations thereof for the three future periods (namely, 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) is calculated. The emerging monthly time series for the annual WBGT is analysed for the time period from 1970 to 2100. By the end of the 21st century, this reaches 24°C in June and August, particularly across Southern Turkey.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071–2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate–fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales.

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots.

Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project

There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60% by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.

The impact of climate-related environmental change on the UK solid waste sector

This paper describes the solid waste sector in the UK and its interactions with other parts of the wider UK infrastructure system before exploring the potential effects of climate change and severe weather in the context of the UKCP09 scenarios. There is limited evidence for the direct effects of climate change on the UK solid waste sector. However, it is apparent that much of the disruption to the sector comes from the impact on transport infrastructure. The paper concludes that the biggest climate-related threat to the solid waste sector, as with the UK infrastructure system generally, is flooding due to future increases in winter mean rainfall and peak rainfall events in summer and winter.