Demographic Situation In Russia Research Articles

Demographic Development of Russia within the Boundaries of Human Capital Theory: Problems and Solutions

The article outlines the role of the demographic situation in ensuring the development of the socio-economic system of the country. In the process of empirical research, the dynamics of the list of indicators characterizing the demographic situation in Russia is considered. The calculation of the absolute indicator of the population is presented, which allows to reveal of the numerical losses of human capital. The fact that the reduction of the country’s population was due to the population of rural areas was established. It is also noted that there was a constant increase in the number of population over working age, as well as a decrease in the working-age population. The decrease in the existing volumes of human capital has led to certain economic losses expressed in the form of lost GDP, which the socio-economic system has incurred. In the context of the above trends, the preservation of the existing human capital, which can be assessed on the basis of the dynamics of indicators: life expectancy and the number of marriages and divorces, becomes a priority. The processes of human capital reproduction represent one of the important directions of demographic development in Russia. The authors determined that these processes have a negatively directed tendency to change. This problem is considered from the position of the functioning of the family institution and the dynamics of the divorce process. An analytical study of statistical data allowed us to conclude that the intensity of marriages in Russia during ten years was higher than the intensity of divorces. The calculated value of the coefficient of preservation of family relations indicates an increase in the probability of reproduction of human capital. The authors calculated the numerical value of reserve human capital in the form of the volume of potential labor force, which can provide an additional volume of GDP.

Medico-demographic and medico-social determinants of the birth rate of the population in the Chechen Republic

BACKGROUND: Over the years, the birth rate in Russia has decreased due to a transformation in the family structure, a change in attitudes toward marriage and family, and economic and social reasons. The ratio of fertility and mortality determines the population reproduction regime, changing economic development and national security conditions. The analysis and assessment of the birth rate in the Chechen Republic is crucial because the results can be used to formulate a system of demographic policy measures considering national traditions of matrimonial behavior. AIM: To develop recommendations for increasing the birth rate of the population in the Chechen Republic as a territory with strong traditions of the priority of family values. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was conducted based on official statistics of the Chechen Republic for 2010–2021 and a sociological survey of mothers. RESULTS: Medical and demographic processes in the territory of the Chechen Republic had a general unfavorable trend in the 12-year period from 2010 to 2021. The only positive aspect that can be considered is a threefold decrease in the birth rate in the same period among mothers aged 40 years, as older mothers carry a large burden of chronic pathology, causing a risk to the health of newborns. CONCLUSION: Negative stable trends in age-specific decline in fertility in the reproductive period among women in the Chechen Republic indicated the unfavorable demographic situation in Russia, despite the priority of family values and stable traditions of large families. The reserves for improving the demographic situation in the region are hidden in the need for systematic information support for families to use their rights to state benefits aimed at protecting motherhood and childhood, monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of these measures.

The medical and demographic situation in Russia: Long-term trends, prospects and improvement potential

Relevant trends for shaping state social policy, including public health protection, can only be formed relying on accurate assessment and forecast of changes in key medical and demographic indicators. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, which had both direct and indirect adverse effects on population mortality across the globe, interest in evaluating possible future changes in the medical and demographic situation has increased. According to the median projections by the United Nations Population Division and the Federal State Statistics Service, the population of the Russian Federation may decrease by 7.3–10 million people by the beginning of 2046. To reverse this negative trend, substantial efforts should be taken beyond migratory growth, including finding innovative mechanisms to stimulate birth rates and reduce mortality (increase life expectancy at birth) as the primary components influencing natural population growth and, consequently, population dynamics. The aim of this study is to identify long-term medical and demographic trends in the Russian Federation and explore the potential for increasing birth rates, life expectancy at birth, and reducing mortality. The research is based on data from Rosstat on population size, and age-sex structure, birth rates, mortality, and life expectancy at birth both in Russia as a whole and by regions, as well as data on deaths from Federal Register for Medical Death Documentation for the period 1970–2023 (with a forecast up to 2046). Observed current demographic trends in the Russian Federation align with global trends and are described by the demographic transition theory. However, significant regional heterogeneity is noted. Therefore it is challenging to develop a unified universal approach to transforming the healthcare system. Nonetheless, it is possible to identify relevant directions for all regions of the Russian Federation to strengthen demographic potential. The study identifies two priority areas for improving the medical and demographic situation in the country in terms of reducing mortality, each requiring different sets of measures: 1) increasing the average age of death from chronic non-communicable diseases that account for over 70 % of deaths both in Russia and other developed countries; 2) minimizing deaths from external causes (injuries, traffic accidents, suicide, poisoning, etc.) and infectious diseases.

ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИЙ КРИЗИС В СОВРЕМЕННОЙ РОССИИ

The demographic situation in Russia requires close attention and analysis due to the relevance and significance of the socio–economic consequences. The article examines the problem of the demographic crisis in modern Russia. The current causes of the demographic crisis and the decline in the birth rate are considered. The socio–economic consequences of a decrease in the population and a decrease in the birth rate are revealed. The data on the dynamics of the population, fertility, and mortality in Russia are presented. The forecast of the birth rate in Russia is given, the dynamics of the total birth rate in the period from 1960 to 2023 is studied. The necessity and directions of developing additional measures aimed at overcoming the demographic crisis are substantiated. The goals, objectives, and directions of the national project "Demography" are presented. In addition, measures of state support for young families aimed at increasing the birth rate were considered.

DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEM IN RUSSIA AND WAYS TO SOLVE IT, ADDITIONAL MEASURES TO SUPPORT LARGE FAMILIES

This article is devoted to the characterisation of one of the urgent problems of our time, the demographic problem. In this article, we will explore the demographic problem in depth and focus on the important role that maternity capital plays in solving this problem. We will also propose ideas and strategies that can help strengthen the demographic situation in Russia and ensure a sustainable future for the country. A definition of the concept of "large family" is given to determine the most effective additional measures to support large families. Part of the work is based on analysing and clarifying the instruments of additional state support for large families in Russia, taking into account the social and demographic situation. It is concluded that it is necessary to develop and implement additional measures of support for large families to overcome the trend of depopulation in Russia.

FAMILY POLICY AS THE BASIS FOR PRESERVING AND ENSURING VALUES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Purpose of the study. The article identifies trends in the development of state family policy, the key direction of which is the comprehensive protection of the institution of the family, based on traditional family values, providing conditions for the birth and raising of children, the popularization of large families for the purpose of saving people and improving the demographic situation in Russia. It has been determined that the implementation of multi-sectoral support measures for families with children provides the necessary conditions to meet their basic needs; it has been proven that preferences in the field of labor and pensions for women with many children will provide them with conditions for them to fully combine work responsibilities with family responsibilities. It is concluded that the state’s family policy is focused on ensuring the protection and protection of traditional family values that determine the essence of family relationships and the prospects for their further development.

Анализ феномена сhildfree и формирование традиционных семейных ценностей у современной студенческой молодежи в регионе (на примере Омской области)

Today, the demographic situation in Russia has become extremely challenging. According to official statistics, in 2022, there were 594,557 more deaths than births. Over the period from 1991 to 2022, natural growth in Russia was positive only for two years, in 2013 and 2014, and averaged 24,013 to 32,038 per year. The peak prevalence of death over birth occurred in periods when the economic, social, and political conditions were the most challenging. Between 1999 and 2005, and again in 2020 and 2021, Russia saw a decline in birth rates, with the number of deaths exceeding the number of births. This resulted in a loss of between 700,000 and 900,000 people during these periods. There are several factors contributing to this situation, but one of the major concerns today is the relatively low birth rate in the face of social, economic, and political upheaval. According to national opinion polls, people aged 25 to 29 years old want an average of two to three children, while the estimated number of children per person is 1.99 for women and 2.02 for men. The total fertility rate in 2022 is 1.42 children per woman. In other words, indicators characterizing people's potential readiness for childbearing actions are relatively low and become lower when considering their desires and opportunities. Against this backdrop, various social trends are emerging. While for most people, leading a family life with at least one child can be considered happiness, there are now individuals who choose to live a childless life. This phenomenon is known as childfreedom and is controversial, as it causes disagreement among many people. Today, childlessness is not only a health issue, but also a social and psychological one, as only a portion of the population associates childlessness with infertility. Therefore, in order to develop a strategy for educating the younger generation, it is essential to understand the family values and attitudes of modern young people towards the phenomenon of being childfree.

The Possibilities of Simulation Modeling for the Creation of Information Societies in the Context of Solving Government Tasks

The active use of simulation and agent-based models is reaching a fundamentally new level. A study of the development of this area in Russia from the perspective of publication activity was published in a previous paper. An approach using advanced tools provides advantages for developers of management mechanisms. Now, language models that are able to generate answers and solve problems at a high level of complexity are gaining popularity. Such developments are already being used together with an agent-oriented approach, which is of particular interest from the point of view of prospects for applied significance. Scaling of research using such a tool can be adjusted to the desired vector and adjusted to different levels of detail - from individual model objects in the form of entities to parametric features of each individual state along with global changes in the world economy. The article is based on an overview of various models, which analyzes Russian and foreign developments constructed using the methodology of computer simulation models. This method allows specialists to introduce new approaches into the structure of public administration by analyzing and predicting challenges in various spheres of public life. In addition, popular software for working with models of this class is considered. In another block, a selection of applied models is presented with individual customization for each of the tasks, and demonstration of results that convey the specifics of different spheres of public life, from demographic assessment of the population of countries, planning in the health system to military clashes and ending with software products for analyzing the space situation. Examples are models that study the demographic situation in Russia, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, voter turnout, comparison of the armed forces of the parties, etc. In the experimental results of some models, it is possible to identify a social orientation that helps to understand the specifics of demographic and social problems well – population decline, the level of support for the political elite, the behavior of people in a stressful situation, government support measures that have a positive effect on the population.

The Dynamics of the Prevalence of Diseases Among Women of Fertile Age in the Charyshsky District of the Altai Region, Living Near the Fall Areas of Separable Parts of Launch Vehicles

Part of the territory of the Altai Region is involved in rocket and space activities as fall areas of separable parts of launch vehicles. This creates a number of specific problems for the ecological situation and the population living near the fall areas. Taking into account the aggravated demographic situation in Russia, this paper presents a dynamic analysis of the prevalence of diseases among women of fertile age in the Senteleksky village Council of the Charyshsky district, as a territory adjacent to the zone of rocket and space activities. The results of the medical examination of the population in 1999, 2006, 2011 and 2015 were used in the work. The most significant diseases and features of the dynamics of the prevalence of classes of diseases and individual nosologies were identified.

ОЦЕНКА ВЗАИМОСВЯЗИ МЕЖДУ ПАРАМЕТРАМИ МИГРАЦИОННОГО ДВИЖЕНИЯ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ И КАЧЕСТВОМ ЖИЗНИ В РЕГИОНАХ РОССИИ

The article is devoted to the study of migration processes in Russia. The population migration forms the settlement system, has a significant impact on the social and economic development of the regions, it is a reflection of the high level of their differentiation on various features, leads to a change in balance both between macroregions and between the types of settlements. The problem of migration outflow in recent years has become characteristic not only for the Northern and Far Eastern regions of the country, but also for other subjects, including the Republic of Bashkortostan. In such conditions, the need to solve it is facing the authorities at all levels of management. At the same time, these issues are not directly reflected in national projects. Moreover, many indicators used in the strategic development documents of the federal level today, in fact, cannot be applicable to the purposes of predicting migration processes due to the lack of a sufficient retrospective base. Taking into account the impossibility of direct impact on the migratory behavior of the population, priority is given to creating favorable conditions. With such a formulation of the task, not financial and economic indicators of development, and the living conditions of people and, first of all, access to social infrastructure facilities are published. In this aspect, its development becomes a competitive control tool for human capital. However, as the study showed, the effectiveness of the implementation of similar activities is significantly varied in a particular region. For a quantitative assessment of the influence of the factors under consideration, the migration processes were asked to form the appropriate economic and mathematical model. The article briefly considers the prerequisites and features of its formation. According to the results of the study, the regression equation was obtained and dispersion analysis was carried out. The results of the assessment of the model according to the Russian regions confirm its adequacy. The study allows you to more fully assess the impact of the development of social infrastructure on the demographic situation in Russia.

Research field of demographic security in the multi-ethnic space of narratives of students

The demographic situation in Russia is characterized by a persistently narrowed type of population reproduction, which certainly actualizes the study of narratives on demographic security and involves understanding the attitudes and risks associated with demographic behavior. Kazan universities are a good platform for studying the demographic behavior of student youth, where mutual influence of the attitudes of the Turkic world and the Russian mental context occurs. The article discusses the features of using the focus group method in the research field of demographic security, with students of Kazan in a multiethnic youth environment. As a result of conducting 16 cases using the focus group method and based on 50 free interviews with its participants, which were conducted 7 days after each focus group, the key attitudes of demographic behavior (reproductive, self-preservation, migration and matrimonial) of student youth in a multi-ethnic environment were identified and the image of the future in demographic security narratives. The focus group method is presented as a platform that makes it possible to create a certain “meta-story”, where the demographic attitudes of young educated representatives of different ethnic groups are realized, the degree of their compatibility, and a search for ways of a possible joint future is developed..

Population Projections for Russia

The subject of the work is population forecasting against the background of changes in the demographic situation in Russia. The topic is an overview of the country’s population projections. Special attention is paid to the forecasts of the size and composition of the population of the Russian Federation in the period from 1991 to 2022. The source data are statistical collections and databases of Rosstat and the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The purpose and objectives of the work are to overcome the attitude to previously developed forecasts as to the material that “does not matter” in comparison with current forecasts. The retrospective of forecasts not only provides grounds for reasoning about the demographic losses of the country in certain historical periods, but also allows us to anticipate possible prospects for the development of the population and to improve the conceptual basis of its forecasting. Verification of officially published forecasts, comparison of prognostic developments from different sources, allows us to develop their methodology and clarify the requirements for them on the part of users– government agencies, science, the expert community, the education system. The paper describes the process of compiling a “library” of predictive sources, suggests tabular and graphical methods of its formalization and subsequent analysis. The article provides conclusions that may be useful for developers and users of demographic forecasts.

On the issue of forecasting social transfers for the macro-regions of Russia

The work is a continuation of the research carried out in 2017 and published in the journal “Economics and Mathematical Methods” (2018, N 4). The need is formulated in a force majeure situation for the country to prevent a sharp drop in the standard of living of the population of the country to increase the role of social transfers. A special role belongs to this in the conditions of the modern demographic situation in Russia. The expediency of the development and adoption at the level of the federal law of the Social Doctrine of the Russian Federation 2025–2030 is substantiated. The main provisions of such a Doctrine developed by N.M. Rimashevskaya and S.S. Sulakshin are considered. The basic principles of the Social Doctrine and its components are given. The scheme of interrelations of models in forecasting social transfers is given. The scheme of classification of regions of the Russian Federation for carrying out model demographic calculations based on the territorial-ethnic principle based on the values of indicators of natural population growth and the integral index of quality of life and its rank calculated by L.A. Migranova is given. It is recommended to carry out calculations using models as a 12-regional bundle. The influence of the level of GDP on the main demographic indicators is analyzed on statistical material. As examples of modeling demographic indicators as functions of GDP per capita, the following indicators were taken: total fertility rate; average age of women at birth; life expectancy of men at birth; life expectancy of women at birth. Indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of the social transfer system are proposed.

Demographic processes as a factor of economic development of the country

The analysis of scientific literature and statistical data shows that demographic processes in the world, the country and the region, on the one hand, affect its economic growth of the territory, and on the other — are a consequence of changes in its socio–economic condition. The death rate. The birth rate and demographic trends in the country determine its attractiveness for business and the population and act as an important condition for the implementation of development. The article analyzes the demographic situation in Russia, the dynamics of its development, opportunities and threats for future economic growth.

МИГРАЦИОННЫЕ ПРОЦЕССЫ: ПРОБЛЕМЫ И РЕШЕНИЯ

The article considers the impact of international population migration on the demographic situation in Russia. Based on the results of a comparative analysis of the structure and dynamics of migration growth in Russia, it is shown that over the past 30 years, the role of international migration has been transformed from a complementary element of total population growth into a compensatory one. It was revealed that by the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century Russia has practically exhausted the migration potential of traditional donor countries in the post-Soviet space. In the medium term, that makes it necessary to expand the geography of migration flows. Both of the trends pose threats to national security.

Геоинформационный мониторинг демографического развития Краснодарской городской агломерации

Introduction. At the present stage of development in Russia, and in the context of the ongoing transformation of the settlement system in the country, the most important role is played by urban agglomerations, which concentrate significant demographic and economic potential. Krasnodar monocentric urban agglomeration has an advantageous geographical location and is situated in the focus of transport highways connecting the center of the Russian Federation with the ports of the Black and Azov Seas, resorts of the Black Sea coast and the Transcaucasia. It is a major node in the basic framework of population settlement and a significant point on the agglomeration map of Russia, which makes it important to study its demographic development and determine demographic potential. Materials and research methods. The information base of the study is the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the database of indicators of municipalities and other departments for the period from 1989 to 2021, by population, demographic and migration indicators, the territorial structure of the migration flow. The definition of agglomeration boundaries is based on the methodology of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the use of GIS technologies. The medium-term forecast of the population of the agglomeration is made on the basis of the finite-difference Malthus equation. Research results and their discussion. With the use of GIS technologies the study determined the composition, analyzed the structure and spatial development of the urban agglomeration. It has been revealed that it is one of the fastest growing in Russia. The natural population growth has maintained for a long time, and only last year it started declining. The main role in the formation of the population is played by migration of all types (international, interregional, intraregional). Demographically, at the intra-agglomeration level, the core and the nearest suburbs stand out clearly in the first place. The peripheral zone, which falls within the 1.5-hour zone of transport accessibility, has negative demographic trends. Conclusions. The conducted analysis made it possible to identify the demographic features of Krasnodar urban agglomeration. Demographically, there is a clear differentiation of the core, suburban and peripheral zones. The population is growing rapidly in the core of the agglomeration and the nearest suburb. In some suburban settlements, the growth rate is higher than in the core. According to the scale of the migration growth, the agglomeration is in the top three agglomerations of Russia, second only to the capital. The demographic prospects of the agglomeration are highly optimistic. In the future, the population growth will continue, but their volume will gradually decrease due to the increasing negative trends in the demographic situation in Russia.

ДЕПОПУЛЯЦИЯ В РОССИИ: ИТОГИ ЗА 1992–2022 ГГ., КОМПОНЕНТЫ, КОМПЕНСАЦИЯ МИГРАЦИЕЙ НА РЕГИОНАЛЬНОМ УРОВНЕ

The object of the study is the population of Russia and its regions. The subject of the study is the general results of the reproduction of the population of the Russian Federation for the period from the beginning of 1992 to the end of 2022, its components, as well as the role of migration growth in mitigating or aggravating depopulation in the regions of Russia. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate and reveal in dynamics the components of depopulation for Russia as a whole – for 31 post-Soviet years, as well as to identify typical groups of Russian regions by the nature of the ratio of the final natural and migration growth/loss. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that for sustainable socio-economic development in unevenly and generally sparsely populated Russia, upward demographic dynamics are necessary, and such a negative modern process as depopulation is the main obstacle on this path. The research method is a cross-sectional analysis of demographic data using classical statistical techniques, such as grouping, tabular and graphic methods, the method of averages, etc. The scientific novelty of the study: the role of various components in the formation of the dynamics of the population of Russia as a whole for 31 post-Soviet years is revealed; of all regions, territories have been identified that are homogeneous in nature in the ratio of natural and migration growth/loss as a whole for a given period. The results of the study: the contribution of fertility, mortality of the population, as well as age-related structural waves to the formation of the sustainable natural decline in the Russian Federation has been determined. The role of population migration in compensating or aggravating the consequences of depopulation in the regions of Russia during the period under review has been established. One of the conclusions of the study: the most significant drawback of the current migration, and demographic situation in Russia is that some regions receive migration growth from others, among which the marginal territories of the Far East and the land Arctic zone, which are mainly geopolitically significant for Russia; and there is no justification for supporting the situation of the growth of the main migration recipients of Russia at the expense of rapidly dying territories due to depopulation.

On IV All-Russian Demographic Forum with International Participation

On December 2–3, 2022, Moscow hosted the IV All-Russian Demographic Forum with International Participation (hereinafter referred to as the Forum) organized by the Institute for Demographic Research – branch of the Federal Center for Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IDR FCTAS RAS) with the support of the Department for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. The Forum brought together scientists, politicians and representatives of civil society to discuss the priority national interests of the country related to saving the Russian population and developing its human potential, which were approved by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation in July 2021. Within the framework of the plenary, the breakout sessions and the round tables of the Forum, special attention was devoted to the consideration of the demographic situation in Russia in 2022, the development of a strategy for a national family and demographic policy aimed at increasing the birth rate, forming of motivation for having more children, the self-preserving behavior of the Russian population, and the regulation of migration processes.

К вопросу о современном состоянии медико-демографической ситуации в России

At the present stage in Russia, the main strategic initiatives aimed at improving medical and demographic processes are set out in a number of regulatory documents presented in the form of national projects, concepts, strategies and other federal projects, while special attention is required to study and monitor these indicators of public health of the population. Purpose of the study is analysis of the medical and demographic situation in Russia and in individual subjects in recent years, making proposals to improve the processes of fertility and mortality, migration growth. Materials and methods. Scientific publications, official statistical data and analytical materials of Rosstat, data from the statistical collection of the SFO were used as research materials. Statistical data processing was carried out using SPSS, Excel‑2007 packages. The main research methods were: the study and generalization of experience, information-analytical, statistical, bibliographic. Results. The analysis of the dynamics of indicators of the demographic situation in the Russian Federation determined a low degree of compliance with the priorities of the state policy; there was a negative dynamics and a discrepancy between the actual value of the planned target indicators, therefore, in order to eliminate the existing problems, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of individual territories when setting and formulating strategic directions and initiatives on this problem. Findings. The results of the study indicate the need for constant monitoring of the main demographic indicators, considering certain directions and the course of the state policy pursued in this direction.

Long-Term Development and Health of Children Conceived by Assisted Reproductive Technologies

The demographic situation in Russia requires escalation of measures to combat infertility including assisted reproductive technologies (ART). The analysis of correlations between ART and features of health and long-term development of “children from the tube” is presented. There is a high risk of dysontogeny after in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection due to epigenetic disorders such as DNA methylation disorders. Living conditions, parenting, education, and health care are crucial for the healthy development of all children including those conceived by ART. The correlations between long-term cognitive development of “children from the tube” and the aspects of parenting in families are presented.