Геоинформационный мониторинг демографического развития Краснодарской городской агломерации

Abstract

Introduction. At the present stage of development in Russia, and in the context of the ongoing transformation of the settlement system in the country, the most important role is played by urban agglomerations, which concentrate significant demographic and economic potential. Krasnodar monocentric urban agglomeration has an advantageous geographical location and is situated in the focus of transport highways connecting the center of the Russian Federation with the ports of the Black and Azov Seas, resorts of the Black Sea coast and the Transcaucasia. It is a major node in the basic framework of population settlement and a significant point on the agglomeration map of Russia, which makes it important to study its demographic development and determine demographic potential. Materials and research methods. The information base of the study is the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the database of indicators of municipalities and other departments for the period from 1989 to 2021, by population, demographic and migration indicators, the territorial structure of the migration flow. The definition of agglomeration boundaries is based on the methodology of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the use of GIS technologies. The medium-term forecast of the population of the agglomeration is made on the basis of the finite-difference Malthus equation. Research results and their discussion. With the use of GIS technologies the study determined the composition, analyzed the structure and spatial development of the urban agglomeration. It has been revealed that it is one of the fastest growing in Russia. The natural population growth has maintained for a long time, and only last year it started declining. The main role in the formation of the population is played by migration of all types (international, interregional, intraregional). Demographically, at the intra-agglomeration level, the core and the nearest suburbs stand out clearly in the first place. The peripheral zone, which falls within the 1.5-hour zone of transport accessibility, has negative demographic trends. Conclusions. The conducted analysis made it possible to identify the demographic features of Krasnodar urban agglomeration. Demographically, there is a clear differentiation of the core, suburban and peripheral zones. The population is growing rapidly in the core of the agglomeration and the nearest suburb. In some suburban settlements, the growth rate is higher than in the core. According to the scale of the migration growth, the agglomeration is in the top three agglomerations of Russia, second only to the capital. The demographic prospects of the agglomeration are highly optimistic. In the future, the population growth will continue, but their volume will gradually decrease due to the increasing negative trends in the demographic situation in Russia.