Demographic Situation In Russia Research Articles

Forecast of the Demografic Development of Russia

In the article, the contemporary issues of the reproduction of the Russian population, their reasons, and state policy toward them are considered. Relevance of the task solution of assessment of the most expected birth rate dynamics of the Russian population in future in the conditions of low norms of the parenthood status taking into account the influence of government measures for the birth rate stimulation is proved. In order to achieve this objective, on the basis of the behavior probability distribution function of crude birth rate, the probabilistic assessment of the future birth rate dynamics of the Russian population was conducted. On the basis of the modernized Hirst method, two expected dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate were constructed: the first trajectory corresponds to the scenario at which the value of crude birth rate will be in the range of 8-10,5 born / 1000 people (probability — 0,182), including the negative external impact, the second trajectory will be in the range of 13-16,5 born / 1000 people (probability — 0,618), including the positive external impact. In spite of the fact that these scenarios are quite different, the dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate predicted according to them during the period of 2015-2041 that corresponds to the time of the reliable prediction are almost identical. The analysis of the received results enabled to conclude that the state population policy cannot affect the future dynamics of the birth rate due mainly to to the conjunctural changes.These conclusions confirm the intellectual vested interest of the academic circles that government regulation of a demographic situation in Russia has to be aimed, first of all, at the health improvement and increase of the expected life interval of the population.

Causes of people’s death in peacetime and economic assessment of the value of losses

The paper gives information on the number of people, who died and were injured as a result of external causes in Russia. Traffic accidents, plane crashes, terrorism, and emergencies worsen the demographic situation in Russia, which is unfavorable even without it, and also creates severe economic consequences. An assessment of the value of lives lost due to mortality from accidents is presented.

THE ISSUES OF WORKERS REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH PROTECTION FROM HARMFUL OCCUPATIONAL END ENVIROMENRAL EXPOSURES

The problem of workers reproductive health protection from harmful occupational and environmental exposures is amongst the national priorities due to demographic situation in Russia and decrease of the manpower. Some issues of women's reproductive health disorders are considered from occupational health standpoint. The demographic and epidemiological data on pregnancy course and outcome, birth defects, children's morbidity etc. are presented and discussed. Some proposal as to risk management and medical surveillance of reproductive health, including legal instruments are put forward.

Geographical analysis of the changes in the demographic situation in Russia for the last 150 years

We present the results derived from reconstructing, for the first time, the time series of some demographic indices of Russia’s regions for the last 150 years. The problem posed for analysis was resolved through the use of extensive, officially published statistical data sets as gathered by these authors at the microlevel (uyezds, and districts) and referred within the contemporary boundaries of the subjects of the Russian Federation using economic-statistical methods and geoinformation technologies.

THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO FORECASTING OF SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF A REGION

The basic problems of current socio-demographic development of Russian regions are considered raising the need to find socio-economic and socio-psychological reasons for current demographic tendencies. Th eoretical substantiation of a demographic situation in Russia taking into account characteristics of the second demographic transition and influence of social stress has been given. Definition of the concept “eff ective sociodemographic development of a region†owing to synergetic effect in terms of socio-economic and demographic system interaction has been suggested. The forecasting method of socio-demographic region development on the basis of sharing of synergy and simulation modeling has been offered. Probabilistic forecasts of the population size of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation being parts of the Ural Federal District till 2025 have been obtained; the given forecasts are to estimate possible ways of socio-demographic development of the Ural Federal District.

The demographic problems of the Pskov region and the main approaches to solving them at the level of the regional state authorities

Speaking of the demographic situation in the Pskov region, Mrs. Vera Yemelyanova, the deputy governor of the Pskov region, emphasised: An extremely difficult demographic situation has developed in the region. If we follow the default scenario, we will not stabilise it. Thus, our way is active and innovative. There is a need to control the migration process and create favourable conditions for population. Keeping this in mind, the regional administration in collaboration with the experts of the North-West Academy of Public Administration prepared the draft of the Comprehensive programme for demographic development of the Pskov region until 2015. To date, it has been decided to hold public hearing regarding this document. Public participation in the discussion about the draft governmental decisions affecting everyone is of utmost importance. The demographic situation in Russia, especially in the last twenty years, has been deteriorating. The trends of the last decades signify that the economy of our country will be facing labour shortage. The reduction in financing and lack of due attention to the development of education system persistent over the last decades resulted in lower qualifications of the younger generation. The elder generation cannot compensate for labour shortage, for instance, due to high mortality rate and shrinking number of available highquality medical services. Owing to the deterioration of financial situation of most citizens, major purchases, including housing, which are a necessary condition for forming a family and giving birth to next generations of RusMikhail Yelsukov

Transformation of migration patterns in post-soviet space: Russian new migration policy of “open doors” and its effect on European migration flows

The presented paper gives the analysis of migration patterns of CIS countries and their interrelations with migration policies of Russia from the time of dissolution of USSR. The migration processes for last 15 years in post Soviet space are developing in the connection with transformation of Russia Federation national and migration policy. Russia still is the main attractive country for CIS countries. The legal norms were introduced in Russia from 2001 to 2006 years (new Laws on citizenship, on foreign residents, on migrants registration and on regulation of labor migrants activities) converted many of internal and external migrants into irregular or semi-irregular. The restrictive migration policy of Russia pushed migrants mainly to 'shadow' economy. This restrictive migration policy has reduced migration flows from FSU countries to Russia and reoriented them toward the Western countries. Unfavorable demographic situation in Russia, the growth of competition for migrants cheap labor with Kazakhstan and Byelorussia and tremendous shortage of labor force lead Russian government to unprecedented steps - to introduce new migration policy of 'open doors' from 2007. This policy undoubtedly will influence migration flows from East Europe to the West. How the new liberalization in migration policy will influence the migration behavior in 'near abroad?' Does it affect migration inflows to Europe from the East? The paper gives the analysis of the first results of new migration policy in the context of migration processes on post-soviet space.