Demographic Forecasts Research Articles

Анализ изменений демографической нагрузки в контексте здорового старения населения страны

The increase in the demographic burden is associated with the ongoing demographic aging of the population, a decline in the birth rate in recent years and an increase in the proportion of elderly people in the total population. The purpose of the study is to analyze the dynamic changes and trends in the demographic burden of the population in the context of healthy aging of the country’s population. Materials and methods. The research materials are limited to the results of the analysis of official statistical information, in particular, for the analyzed period (2009–2023). The following methods were used: statistical, comparative analysis, study and generalization of experience. The obtained data were processed using modern software packages SPSS22 and MS Excel 2007. Results. In the course of this study, statistical data on the demographic burden of the population in urban and rural settlements in Russia were studied, the methodological basis for calculating this indicator was analyzed, the values in different countries of the world were compared, and modern trends in the context of healthy aging of the country’s population were compared. Conclusion. The results of this study can be used in the preparation of medium-term demographic forecasts and state programs aimed at improving the quality of life of the population and creating optimal conditions for the healthy aging of citizens.

Metropolization process in the rural settlement system of the Central Chernozem region of Russia

The Central Chernozem region of Russia has undergone significant changes in socio-demographic processes over the past half-century. The aim of this study was to establish the impact of metropolization on the demographic transformation of sparsely populated rural settlements for the Central Chernozem region and to develop a demographic forecast for 2030. The study’s goals were to (1) determine the scale of regional metropolises; (2) identify the impact of metropolization on the quantitative indicators of sparsely populated rural settlements; (3) establish trends in their transformation; and (4) compile a medium-term demographic forecast for the Central Chernozem region. The set objectives were achieved by integrating methods for spatial-temporal and comparative geographical analysis, statistical methods, and a combination of official statistics with sociological methods. Analysis of the level of urbanization of the regions in modern conditions (20th and 21st centuries) showed that, although this process was and remained below the national average, it did not prevent the formation of regional metropolises (Belgorod, Stary Oskol, Kursk, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Tambov) as an obvious outcome of urbanization processes. A regional pattern of degradation of the network of rural settlements, mainly the smallest and small in terms of population (1-25, 26-50 people), which make up over one third of all settlements in the Central Chernozem region of Russia, was determined. A stable long-term trend of growth in the number of abandoned villages and hamlets was established. Between the last two All-Russian population censuses (11 years), their number increased by 45%. The forecasting results obtained confirm the established patterns in the medium-term trend of “compression” of rural settlement around regional metropolis (with some exceptions). The medium-term demographic forecast showed that population concentration in metropolitan areas and further socio-demographic desertification in peripheral areas will continue with growing territorial differentiation. The obtained results of the study of the transformation of settlement systems of the Central Chernozem region as a result of the metropolization of regional centers can help government institutions in strategic planning of territorial development.

Revisiting the Spatial Cycle: Intra-Regional Development Patterns and Future Population Dynamics in Metropolitan Athens, Greece

Being intertwined with economic development, urbanization determines the present and future development path of regions and countries. The intimate relationship between urban expansion and economic development is of particular interest in the case of large regions with complex (and mostly non-linear) socio-demographic dynamics and a relevant primacy in the metropolitan system of a given country. Typical examples of advanced economies with settlement systems characterized by a high degree of city primacy are peripheral and disadvantaged European countries such as Portugal and Greece. For instance, the administrative region of Attica—centered on Athens, the Greek capital city—represents the largest metropolitan area of the country, hosting almost 3.8 million inhabitants in 2021 (36.2% of the Greek population). In this context, this study investigates the internal redistribution of the resident population in metropolitan Athens and the progressive development of satellite cities over a relatively longtime interval, testing the assumptions of the Spatial Cycle Theory (SCT) between 1951 and 2021 and predicting future development paths up to 2051. To investigate past, present, and future intra-regional population trends, we used data released from decadal (1951–2021) censuses and demographic forecasts for the years 2031, 2041, and 2051. Being in line with the SCT, the empirical results of our study document how demographic dynamics of individual centers influence largely—and independently—the long-term development of metropolitan regions, both with policy/planning regulation and in conditions of non-intervention (spontaneous urban growth).

Digital Trace Data and Demographic Forecasting: How Well Did Google Predict the US COVID‐19 Baby Bust?

AbstractAt the onset of the first wave of COVID‐19 in the United States, the pandemic's effect on future birthrates was unknown. In this paper, we assess whether digital trace data—often touted as a panacea for traditional data scarcity—held the potential to accurately predict fertility change caused by the COVID‐19 pandemic in the United States. Specifically, we produced state‐level, dynamic future predictions of the pandemic's effect on birthrates in the United States using pregnancy‐related Google search data. Importantly, these predictions were made in October 2020 (and revised in February 2021), well before the birth effect of the pandemic could have possibly been known. Our analysis predicted that between November 2020 and February 2021, monthly United States births would drop sharply by approximately 12 percent, then begin to rebound while remaining depressed through August 2021. While these predictions were generally accurate in terms of the magnitude and timing of the trough, there were important misses regarding the speed at which these reductions materialized and rebounded. This ex post evaluation of an ex ante prediction serves as a powerful demonstration of the “promise and pitfalls” of digital trace data in demographic research.

Territorial Accessibility of Regional Systems of Secondary Vocational Education

The article discusses the development of the infrastructure of regional systems of secondary vocational education, as well as the territorial accessibility of professional educational organizations (VET) for young people. As part of the study, the authors consider compliance with state guarantees for the implementation of the right of young people to vocational education in terms of providing budgetary places in educational organizations of the open-ended educational system and places in hostels, as well as the permissible value of the specific gravity of the number of buildings of state public educational institutions adapted for training people with disabilities and disabled people. The basis for the study was the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025, approved by order of the Government of the Russian Federation of February 13, 2019 N 207-r and the Development Strategy for the system of training workers and the formation of applied qualifications in the Russian Federation for the period until 2030. As a result of the study, the authors identified regions at risk for the availability of secondary vocational education. Calculations were carried out taking into account the demographic forecast and migration of young people. The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.

Using Trend Models for Analysis and Forecasting Basic Demographic Indicators (case study of Sumy Region, Ukraine)


 
 
 The article is dedicated to the analysis of the demographic situation in Sumy region and possible scenarios for its development. The aim of the article is to carry out a demographic forecast of the main demographic indicators of Sumy region (Ukraine) till 2030. Forecasting is based on defining the tendencies in the dynamics of demographic indicators during 1990-2021. It should be noted that the demographic situation in Sumy region is perhaps the most complicated in the national demographic dimension. According to many demographic indicators, the region holds the most negative positions in Ukraine. Besides, negative features continue to grow: over the past 10 years, the population of the region has decreased by 9.3%, urban – by 6.3%, and rural – by 15.4%. According to our forecast, the population of the region will decrease by another 12% and will amount to approximately 911 thousand inhabitants by 2030. Forecasting the number of the rural population showed a faster rate of its depopulation – up to 253.8 thousand people, or 18.8%. Besides, there will be negative changes in the population of certain age groups. For example, in the age group 0-17 years, there will be only 135 thousand people and the number of children will decrease by 17.7% by 2030. The main point is a significant decrease in the birth rate, which will be reduced by 14.5% during the forecast period. The fertility rate will decrease by 13.7% and it will amount to 0.7 children per woman. On the other hand, there is a tendency towards an increase in mortality, the level of which in 2021 reached the highest value – 20 ‰. According to our forecast, by 2030, the mortality rate will stabilize at the level of 19.6-19.7 ‰, and in the pessimistic scenario, it will increase by 16.2% (up to 23.2 ‰). As a result of the two demographic tendencies mentioned above, since the 1980s, there has been a natural decline in the population in Sumy region. By 2030, the rate of depopulation will increase by 2.4%, and its level will be -15.1% per year. The results of the demographic forecast can be used in assessing the balance of labor resources in the future, planning the development of the social sphere, housing construction, etc.
 
 

ПРОДОЛЖИТЕЛЬНОСТЬ ЗДОРОВОЙ ЖИЗНИ В КОНТЕКСТЕ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИХ ПРОГНОЗОВ

Significance. The relevance of the study is related to the need to develop adequate tools for assessing and monitoring achievements of the national demographic goals. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the association of age and loss of health in the context of the forecast on aging of the Russian population. Material and methods. A comparative assessment of the Rosstat demographic forecast options until 2045 was carried out from the standpoint of analyzing the pace of demographic ageing; data of the Rosstat sample observation on the quality and accessibility of services in the field of education, health, social services, and employment conducted in 2019 were used; indicators characterizing various aspects of health loss were selected. The relationship between the criteria of ill health was investigated using factor analysis methods and a generalized indicator “quality of life from the standpoint of health” was offered: Using the Sullivan method, an assessment of healthy life expectancy and losses associated with ill health was carried out: first, using each criterion separately, then using the generalized indicator. Results. It has been established that under any demographic forecast scenario, the population over the working age will grow at the maximum rate - under the most favorable option from the point of view of population dynamics. At the same time, there will be a progressive ageing of the elderly population with a higher increase in people aged 85 and older. The use of various criteria for assessing ill health results in significant variability in healthy life expectancy. If we are to take into account the criteria characterizing the most severe conditions of health loss: 1 and 2 group disability; significant limitations of life activities; self-rated health as “poor” and “very poor”, etc., then they provide more precise estimates of the loss of healthy life expectancy. The use of the generalized indicator based on three criteria increases the loss of high-quality life expectancy according to the criterion of health by 2.5-3 years. Scope of application. The results can be applied to the assessment and monitoring of healthy life expectancy at the national and regional levels

Многомерная демография: новый подход к оценке человеческих ресурсов российского Севера

Over the past three decades, the population of the Russian North has decreased by almost a quarter. Simultaneously, an increasing share of pensioners may negatively affect the availability and quality of labour resources in northern regions. The article examines the dynamics and structure of human resources in 13 regions of the Russian North in the 21st century using multidimensional demography. This approach, along with the main demographic indicators (sex, age) varying in time and space, involves considering such additional characteristics as education and labour force participation. This view of demographic processes can reveal whether an increase in education or employment (qualitative characteristics) can help reduce negative trends in the quantitative characteristics of human resources. The average duration of education of the total and employed population was compared. Indicators of the total duration of education and education costs were used to assess the value of the accumulated educational potential. According to the calculations, in 2002–2010, the total duration of education of the employed population decreased only in 3 of the 13 northern regions and remained at the 2002 level in 3 regions. In 2010–2021, this indicator already decreased in seven constituent entities and remained at the 2010 level in three regions. The total loss of educational potential of human resources amounted to 4.1 million person years of education. To remedy the educational potential in 2020 prices, more than 600 billion roubles of budgetary funds would be needed. The occurred transformations are clearly demonstrated by sex-age-educational pyramids. The study showed that negative demographic trends in the Russian North almost cannot be reduced by improving qualitative characteristics. The findings can be applied to develop demographic, social and labour policies, and to construct demographic forecasts.

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of Us Elections

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of Us Elections

Demographic burden and average insurance retirement benefit: Scenario approach

This research examines the main types of retirement systems for citizens of the Russian Federation. The forecasting of population size and dependency ratio was carried out using the Verhulst equation as a tool for demographic projection. A comparative analysis of the obtained forecasts with the official data of the United Nations (UN) was carried out. It is assessed that the demographic forecast based on the Verhulst equation is accompanied by a more moderate decrease in the dependency ratio compared to the UN forecasts. Therefore, a scenario analysis of the impact of a negative demographic forecast based on UN data and a positive one according to the results obtained by the Verhulst equation on the size of the average insurance retirement is proposed. It is concluded that under the negative scenario of the demographic situation the size of the insurance retirement benefit increases by 11 .69%, while under a positive scenario it increases by 58.54%, which exceeds the growth rate of retirement provision for citizens of the Russian Federation by more than 5 times compared to the negative scenario of the demographic situation in the country.

ADVANCED DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATIONS BASED ON LAG MODELS

Research and forecasting of time series based on models with lags is offered, as well as calculation of a reliable forecast based on data on birth rates in Ukraine. Economic modeling is one of the important modern tools for assessing the impact of technologies on the economic sector in order to obtain an optimal solution. Economic evaluations can be based on several different modeling approaches, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. The relevance of the use of economic and mathematical models for the purpose of studying demography is connected with the need to study population and migration processes, as well as for further planning and implementation of the country's economic and social development. In every sphere of the economy, there are phenomena that are interesting and important to study in their development, as they evolve over time. Prices, economic conditions, industrial processes, and demographic data tend to change over time. The set of measurements of this kind of indicators depending on time is a time series. The goals of studying time series can be different. It is possible, for example, to try to predict the future on the basis of knowledge of the past, to control the process that generates the series, to try to find out the mechanism underlying the process, to clear the series of components that obscure its dynamics, or simply to briefly describe the characteristic features of the series. When studying the relationships between indicators or when analyzing their development over time, not only the current value of the variables, but also some previous values in time, as well as time itself, are used as explanatory variables. Models of this type are called dynamic. In economic analysis, dynamic models are used quite widely. This is quite natural, because in many cases the influence of some economic factors on others is not carried out immediately, but with some delay − a lag. The object of research is the mathematical model of the interdependence of the vector time series "Births in Ukraine for January 2005 − July 2012." The data are chosen quite relevantly, because without a preliminary demographic forecast it is impossible to imagine the prospects of industry and consumption of goods and services, housing construction, development of social infrastructure, health care and education, pension system and solutions to geopolitical problems.

Parenthood stressfulness and intensity in the students’ views

Introduction. There is an increase in young people’s reproductive decisions in the form of conscious childlessness, deferred parenthood, and small families. The role of reproductive decision-making in the non-optimistic demographic forecast of the state actualizes scientific research factors and conditions for the emergence of childbearing attitudes. Subjective factors, which determine fertile plans, are no less important than the objective ones (material, social). In the subjective picture of potential parenthood, the ideas about a stressful parenting role are of great importance. High demands are made to it and transmitted at the level of public expectations. This forms intensive education practice and a stable attitude towards the perception of fatherhood and motherhood long before the children’s birth.Aim. The present research aims to study the peculiarities of student ideas about the stressfulness and parental role intensity in the gender factor context and reproductive plans.Methodology and research methods. The sample consisted of 364 childless students (M = 19.43 years). To achieve a study goal, the sample was divided by gender (218 girls and 146 boys) and by orientation towards having children: childlessness (n = 32); large families (n = 75); having few children (n = 257). The following methods and techniques were used: authors’ questionnaire; methodology “Parental Stress Scale” by J. O. Berry & W. H. Jones (1995) in the adaptation of Yu. V. Misiyuk, I. V. Tikhonova (2022); “Intensive Parenting Attitudes Questionnaire” by M. Liss, H. H. Schiffrin, V. H. Mackintosh, H. Miles-McLean, M. J. Erchull (2013) in the adaptation of Yu. V. Misiyuk (2022); the authors’ version of a semi-structured interview, which studies the ideas of young people about the stressors of parental life in different periods of child development and stress intensity. The methods of statistical processing were employed.Results. The authors revealed stressfulness specificity and parental stress intensity, their content depending on the orientation towards childbearing and gender roles. Child-free students associate parenthood with a high level of parental stress. It is unsatisfying, lacks resources, threatens to lose control over one’s own life, and makes high demands on the necessity to stimulate children’s development. Students oriented on having many children demonstrate a balanced view on parenthood stressfulness in terms of resources and costs. Students, focused on having few children, have an idea of moderate parental stressfulness. They point to such possible signs of parental stress as “loss of control” and “parental stressors”.Girls assess a parental stressfulness role higher than boys; they expect a lower satisfaction level, a high stress level during the periods of early and preschool child development. Girls demonstrate the severity of attitudes towards essentialism, and young men towards child-centrism. The essentialisation of parenthood strengthens the ideas about parenthood stressfulness, whereas the attitude towards getting pleasure from parenthood can be a protection factor.Scientific novelty. For the first time, the characteristics of the stress of the parental role and attitudes towards intensive parenthood in the representations of students are studied. Their interrelation is investigated. The presented results reveal the peculiarities of the perception of the tension of the parental role, its saturation with stress factors, taking into account gender and orientation to childbearing.Practical significance. The research outcomes contribute to the understanding of the patterns and factors of the formation of ideas about the stress of parenthood, its role in the reproductive plans of students. Also, the research results can be used in educational organisations to justify education programmes on parenting and psychological support.

Demographic Forecast of the Population of Kazakhstan: Methods and Development Prospects

The state and prospects of demographic processes are very important for the country's development since a change in these parameters entails changes in other areas of society and the economy. The purpose of the article is to predict the demographic situation in Kazakhstan, taking into account the peculiarities of socio-economic development. Forecasting of demographic indicators was carried out by several methods, in particular, by cohort component. Forecasts of the population size and structure are developed based on an analysis of trends in demographic processes, and their cause-and-effect relationships with socio-economic processes. Data from official demographic statistics and Republican population censuses of 2009 and 2021 were used as initial data. Calculations by alternative methods are also presented: population projections using the methods of prospects and displacements and using the average growth rate, exponential curve formulas, natural and mechanical displacements, and polynomials of the second and third degrees. The results obtained include data on the total population of Kazakhstan, its age, and gender structure.

Demographic Globalization: Contribution to Global Economic Growth in Long-Term Perspective

Demography is one of the important factors of the Great Convergence. We estimate the contribution of the demographic factor to the prospective GDP dynamics for all countries of the world up to 2100. We use a long-term economic growth model that is based on estimates of labor productivity growth rates and incorporates the demographic forecast for both population and life expectancy. Globally, our model estimates long-term economic growth of world GDP at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent, of which the demographic factor accounts for 0.54 percentage points, or about one-third (31.8 per cent) of the projected world economic growth in the twenty-first century. In our forecasts, we have relied on the logic of the previous research on convergence, which considered a sufficiently high level of the human capital development and a sufficient degree of economic openness as necessary conditions for convergence, which have now largely been achieved throughout the world precisely through the globalization processes (especially in the core and the semi-periphery of the World System). However, the inclusion of the demographic projections in our forecasts allows us to emphasize an important feature of the perspective convergence – it is not the semi-periphery, but rather the periphery of the World System, or the ‘bottom billion’ according to Collier, that is likely to converge particularly rapidly with both the core and the semi-periphery (such as the BRICS countries) thanks to favorable demographic structure. The paper has been prepared within the framework of RANEPA state assignment in 2023.

Forecasting the Directions of the State Policy of the Region on the Basis of Cluster Analysis of Indicators of Socio-Economic Development of Its Municipalities

Assessment of the prospects for the development of the region is an important task for both economic science and public authorities. The purpose of this article is to develop an algorithm for assessing the prospects for the development of the region, which would allow identifying the most problematic areas and competitive advantages of territorial development in order to determine the most important areas of budget expenditures in the context of municipalities in the region. The research uses the concept of sustainable development and the theory of clusters as a methodological basis. Cluster analysis by the Ward method and k-means were used as research methods. As a forecasting method, the most effective among the methods was used: least squares, exponential smoothing, moving average for 3 and 5 years. Separately, the demographic forecast for each municipality separately was used to predict the population. As a result of the conducted research, groups of municipalities of the region differentiated by the level of development have been identified, for which the main problem areas have been formulated, the leveling of which should be addressed by the state policy of the region. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it identifies and predicts the problems of socio-economic development of the region, which may be hidden in the medium-term forecast of the socio-economic region. In this research, such problems were identified in many municipalities of the Leningrad region in the field of housing construction, demography and economics. The article may be useful to public authorities when forming a strategy for socio-economic development.

Can We Rely on Projections of the Immigrant Population? The Case of Norway

Demographic forecasters must be realistic about how well they can predict future populations, and it is important that they include estimates of uncertainty in their forecasts. Here we focus on the future development of the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children (“second generation”), grouped by three categories of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; 2. Central and East European countries that are members of the European Union; 3. other countries. We show how to use a probabilistic forecast to assess the reliability of projections of the immigrant population and their children. We employ the method of random shares using data for immigrants and their children for 2000–2021. We model their age- and sex-specific shares relative to the whole population. Relational models are used for the age patterns in these shares, and time series models to extrapolate the parameters of the age patterns. We compute a probabilistic forecast for six population sub-groups with immigration background, and one for non-immigrants. The probabilistic forecast is calibrated against Statistics Norway’s official population projection. We find that a few population trends are quite certain: strong increases to 2060 in the size of the immigrant population (more specifically those who belong to country group 3) and of Norwegian-born children of immigrants. However, prediction intervals around the forecasts of immigrants and their children by one-year age groups are so wide that these forecasts are not reliable.

Long-Term Demographic Forecasting

Long-Term Demographic Forecasting

ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OF MONOCITIES IN EAST KAZAKHSTAN REGION

The development of single-industry towns has been one of the main problems of Kazakhstan for many years. The depressive state of single-industry towns has worsened. This article is devoted to the development of the demographic potential of single-industry towns in the East Kazakhstan region of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The study used methods of comparison, matching, extrapolation, modeling, and benchmarking. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the demographic indicators of single-industry towns in the East Kazakhstan region of Kazakhstan for 10 years. Based on the analysis carried out, a demographic forecast for the development of single-industry towns until 2030 was calculated. The factors influencing the development of the demographic potential of single-industry towns are determined. The authors attempted to calculate the index of demographic development of single-industry towns for 10 years, which shows the assessment of the settlements under consideration in terms of size and growth rate of demographic indicators and considers the balance of migration. An algorithm of actions for the development of single-industry towns is proposed.

Russia’s demographic future: forecasts and reality

The article refers to the forecast as a tool to suggest a possible demographic development, which may occur either by itself as a result of the continuation of the current trends, or as a result of the implementation of measures specially taken for this purpose. The history of the development of demographic forecasting, its implementation in the Soviet years and in modern Russia is briefly shown. The practical significance of reliable forecasts for Russia, whose population growth is one of the conditions for preserving its independence, territorial integrity and status as a Great Power, is highlighted. The article expresses the author’s opinion regarding the multivariate forecasts in the demographic sphere and the use of methods that are not peculiar to social phenomena, such as population. Much attention is paid to characteristics of the forecasts compiled by Rosstat and its predecessor Goskomstat of Russia, their comparison with UN forecasts, comparison with the actual population. The final part of the article compares various versions of modern forecasts of Rosstat, substantiates the need to implement those of them that correspond to the practical interests of the country and its regions. The conclusions emphasize that one of the omissions of Rosstat is the use for practical purposes of the so-called average version of the population forecast, which it considers the most realistic. How to achieve implementation of the normative option for the country, if the regions are focused on achieving the population size according to the average option? If we proceed from the strategic goal of Russia’s demographic development, it is obvious that for this, in addition to the forecast— extrapolation, which shows what will happen if the current trends continue, only a normative forecast is needed that indicates the necessary parameters of the population dynamics, corresponding to the national interests of the country.Therefore, for the regions, their population sizes corresponding to high options should be brought up, since only the sum of these values in all regions corresponds to the normative forecast for Russia. This option, rather than the middle one, is or should be provided by the necessary set of population policies.

Constructing national policy space: Demographic forecasting, macroeconomic ‘gaps’ and technocratic governance

Much contemporary economic policy analysis deploys demographic projections. To explore their macroeconomic significance, this article draws on documentary evidence from two case studies: (1) the World Bank’s Human Capital Index and (2) European Union models of population ageing within debt sustainability analysis. Combining constructivist and Foucauldian insights, we develop a threefold argument about the constitutive effects of quantified demographic futures on macroeconomic policy analysis. First, the World Bank’s and the European Union’s respective demographic futures mobilise urgency for contingent policy choices with reference to expected future ‘gaps’. Second, they build credibility for contested bodies of expertise on the basis of long-term population forecasts. Third, they delineate agency such that the effects of structural inter-dependencies between economies are rendered as national-level policy risks. These findings demonstrate how quantified demographic futures circumscribe national policy space, mediate the politics of macroeconomic ideas and contribute to the depoliticisation of economic policymaking.