Using Trend Models for Analysis and Forecasting Basic Demographic Indicators (case study of Sumy Region, Ukraine)

Abstract


 
 
 The article is dedicated to the analysis of the demographic situation in Sumy region and possible scenarios for its development. The aim of the article is to carry out a demographic forecast of the main demographic indicators of Sumy region (Ukraine) till 2030. Forecasting is based on defining the tendencies in the dynamics of demographic indicators during 1990-2021. It should be noted that the demographic situation in Sumy region is perhaps the most complicated in the national demographic dimension. According to many demographic indicators, the region holds the most negative positions in Ukraine. Besides, negative features continue to grow: over the past 10 years, the population of the region has decreased by 9.3%, urban – by 6.3%, and rural – by 15.4%. According to our forecast, the population of the region will decrease by another 12% and will amount to approximately 911 thousand inhabitants by 2030. Forecasting the number of the rural population showed a faster rate of its depopulation – up to 253.8 thousand people, or 18.8%. Besides, there will be negative changes in the population of certain age groups. For example, in the age group 0-17 years, there will be only 135 thousand people and the number of children will decrease by 17.7% by 2030. The main point is a significant decrease in the birth rate, which will be reduced by 14.5% during the forecast period. The fertility rate will decrease by 13.7% and it will amount to 0.7 children per woman. On the other hand, there is a tendency towards an increase in mortality, the level of which in 2021 reached the highest value – 20 ‰. According to our forecast, by 2030, the mortality rate will stabilize at the level of 19.6-19.7 ‰, and in the pessimistic scenario, it will increase by 16.2% (up to 23.2 ‰). As a result of the two demographic tendencies mentioned above, since the 1980s, there has been a natural decline in the population in Sumy region. By 2030, the rate of depopulation will increase by 2.4%, and its level will be -15.1% per year. The results of the demographic forecast can be used in assessing the balance of labor resources in the future, planning the development of the social sphere, housing construction, etc.