Russia’s demographic future: forecasts and reality

Abstract

The article refers to the forecast as a tool to suggest a possible demographic development, which may occur either by itself as a result of the continuation of the current trends, or as a result of the implementation of measures specially taken for this purpose. The history of the development of demographic forecasting, its implementation in the Soviet years and in modern Russia is briefly shown. The practical significance of reliable forecasts for Russia, whose population growth is one of the conditions for preserving its independence, territorial integrity and status as a Great Power, is highlighted. The article expresses the author’s opinion regarding the multivariate forecasts in the demographic sphere and the use of methods that are not peculiar to social phenomena, such as population. Much attention is paid to characteristics of the forecasts compiled by Rosstat and its predecessor Goskomstat of Russia, their comparison with UN forecasts, comparison with the actual population. The final part of the article compares various versions of modern forecasts of Rosstat, substantiates the need to implement those of them that correspond to the practical interests of the country and its regions. The conclusions emphasize that one of the omissions of Rosstat is the use for practical purposes of the so-called average version of the population forecast, which it considers the most realistic. How to achieve implementation of the normative option for the country, if the regions are focused on achieving the population size according to the average option? If we proceed from the strategic goal of Russia’s demographic development, it is obvious that for this, in addition to the forecast— extrapolation, which shows what will happen if the current trends continue, only a normative forecast is needed that indicates the necessary parameters of the population dynamics, corresponding to the national interests of the country.Therefore, for the regions, their population sizes corresponding to high options should be brought up, since only the sum of these values in all regions corresponds to the normative forecast for Russia. This option, rather than the middle one, is or should be provided by the necessary set of population policies.