Russia's Demographic Future

Abstract

Many forecasts have been made during the ten years since depopulation began. Differing hypotheses notwithstanding, they all affirm that the general vector of Russia's demographic development in the twenty-first century is further population decline. According to the average estimate, in the next fifteen years alone the decline will add up to thirteen or fourteen million persons, or more than 9 percent of the 2000 level. The inevitable acceleration in population decline reflects the narrowing of the reproductive base (the number of people of reproductive age) and the increase in reproductive losses (the number of deaths) as a result of a rapid rise in the average age. This brings such negative consequences as a decline in the size of the working population, a drastic increase in the costs of providing social support to the nonworking population, loss of defense potential, and disruption of the geopolitical balance. Based on Russia's current condition, depopulation is quite likely to cause the social, economic, and political degradation of the country, reducing it to a second-rate power with a dying population.