Demographic Forecast of the Population of Kazakhstan: Methods and Development Prospects

Abstract

The state and prospects of demographic processes are very important for the country's development since a change in these parameters entails changes in other areas of society and the economy. The purpose of the article is to predict the demographic situation in Kazakhstan, taking into account the peculiarities of socio-economic development. Forecasting of demographic indicators was carried out by several methods, in particular, by cohort component. Forecasts of the population size and structure are developed based on an analysis of trends in demographic processes, and their cause-and-effect relationships with socio-economic processes. Data from official demographic statistics and Republican population censuses of 2009 and 2021 were used as initial data. Calculations by alternative methods are also presented: population projections using the methods of prospects and displacements and using the average growth rate, exponential curve formulas, natural and mechanical displacements, and polynomials of the second and third degrees. The results obtained include data on the total population of Kazakhstan, its age, and gender structure.