Demographic Development Research Articles

‫‬‬‬‬‬The Role Of Modern Techniques Of Management Accounting and Cost Accounting in Improving Cost Efficiency and Quality Of Care in Urology: a Theoretical Study

Economic and demographic developments in the past few decades have increased the pressure on efficiency in the healthcare industry. Modern management accounting and cost accounting techniques are a critical component in improving the efficiency and quality of care in urology. With the ever-increasing costs of healthcare, the need for a sophisticated accounting system that can provide accurate data on costs and revenues is more important than ever. The aim of this research was to investigate the role of modern techniques in management accounting and cost accounting as a means of enhancing cost efficiency and quality of care in urology. The research highlights the importance of training medical staff in these techniques, as this can improve overall performance and reduce costs without compromising the quality of care provided to patients. These techniques have been shown to help physicians and administrators make informed decisions, which helps improve the efficiency and quality of care. They also contribute to improving communication between medical teams, enabling better patient care. By focusing on improving resource and cost management, these techniques can play a pivotal role in achieving superior and effective health outcomes.

The nexus between economic, demographic, policy and human development in South Africa: An econometric analysis

The Human Development Index, which accounts for both net foreign income and the total value of goods and services generated domestically, illustrates how income becomes less significant as Gross National Income (GNI) rises by using the logarithm of income. South Africa ranks 109th out of 189 countries in the Human Development Index (HDI) within the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) economic bloc, raising long-term sustainability concerns. The study explores the relationship between economic, demography, policy indicators and human development in South Africa. South Africa’s unique status as a developing country within the BRICS economic group, alongside its lengthy history of racial discrimination, calls for a sophisticated approach to understanding Human Development. Existing research considered economic, demography, policy indicators independently; the gap of understanding their interconnection and long-term effects in the South African contexts exists. The study addresses the gap by using Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the short-term and the long-term relationship between economic, demography, policy indicators and human development in South Africa. By discovering these links, the study hopes to provide useful insights for policymakers seeking to promote sustainable human development in South Africa. The findings indicate that growth in GDP is a key factor in the HDI since it shows that there are more financial resources available for human development. By discovering these links, the study hopes to provide useful insights for policymakers seeking to promote sustainable human development in South Africa.

Development of health care expenditures in Finland up to 2040

Abstract Background Increasing health care expenditures are threatening public health by complicating the supply of adequate health services. Exploration of possible future developments of the expenditures is needed to understand how to prepare for future or to change an unwanted course of development. We provided projections by health care sectors taking into account demographic and other developments. Methods We used national data on the realized expenditures per capita by age group, sex and health care sectors from 2017 to 2020, and official forecasts of the population in Finland up to 2040. Future per capita expenditures were projected with Bayesian linear regression models incorporating a priori dependency structure for the slope parameters of the age groups such that the time trends of adjacent groups would be more similar than other groups. These projections were then combined with the population forecasts to estimate the total expenditures. Results The greatest increase (164%) was estimated for the total costs of the primary outpatient healthcare: from 2153 to 5677 million euros in 2020-2040, such that 7% of the growth was attributed to demographic developments. The estimated growths were 68% for the primary inpatient healthcare, 14% for the specialised somatic healthcare, and 52% for the urgent and emergency health services, of which 91%, 98% and 21% were attributed to demographic developments, respectively. Conclusions Notable increases in expenditures are expected in all considered health care sectors, but there are great differences in the proportions of the growth attributed to demographic developments. Due to the limited role of demographic changes, it is worth focusing on controlling the impacts of other developments by, e.g., improving the population health and the efficiency of the health care system. Key messages • Notable increases are expected in health care expenditures up to 2040. • Impacts of demographic changes varies markedly between health care sectors.

Forecasting the future demand on health workforce – the Austrian model

Abstract Background An aging population and upcoming retirements of health care professionals pose new challenges to the Austrian health care system. On the one hand the health care and nursing needs will increase while at the same time a shortage on health care personnel threatens adequate supply. We as the Austrian Public Health Institute estimate the risk of an undersupply with model-based health workforce forecasting and are therefore able to advise the federal states and the ministry of health on early measures. Methods We developed a forecasting model to estimate the future supply and demand. The main influencing factors are the demographic development as well as the upcoming retirements and graduates. Different environments and needs in different federal states (e.g. changing future skill mix) are considered and can be implemented as additional influencing factors. Usually a baseline scenario as a forward projection of the status quo is developed for defined professions and workplace settings. Then depending on the stakeholder needs additional scenarios are calculated and discussed. A usual forecast horizon is 10 to 15 years. Results Model output are time series of yearly workforce personnel numbers (heads and full-time equivalents) and demand in the defined settings. An analysis of possible gaps shows the need for action. Conclusions The Austrian health workforce model is a flexible tool to estimate future needs on health workforce based on different assumptions. But as assumptions and influencing factors must be represented as data, the data collection can be quite laborious. Comprehensive data is the basis for a comprehensive health workforce planning. Further work is needed to develop practical and evidence-based nursing-sensitive indicators for nursing workfoce reportings on a country level. In Austria the health professionals register forms the basis for the description of the nursing workforce structure, but that there is a need for data sources on care effectiveness. Key messages • Comprehensive data is the basis for a comprehensive health workforce planning. • An aging population and upcoming retirements of health care professionals pose new challenges to the Austrian health care system.

Public Health Challenges for 2050 in the Netherlands

Abstract Every 4 years, the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) carries out the Dutch Public Health Foresight Study, commissioned by the Ministry of Health. The ninth edition (PHFS-2024) compiles an outlook on future public health and the health care system in the Netherlands. It combines a business-as-usual Trend Scenario with literature study and a range of qualitative and mixed-methods approaches. The Trend Scenario comprises projections up to 2050 for a broad range of epidemiological indicators. Such as (healthy) life expectancy, disease burden, life style factors. The qualitative and mixed methods approaches supported an incremental intersubjective process. Methods were a focus groups study, stakeholder sessions and workshops. An important innovation in this study was the Citizen Council and Panel. The outcomes show that demographic development, in particular growth of the group people at high age with multimorbidity, will lead to high pressure on the formal and informal health care system but also on e.g. mental health. A life course approach applied shows that decreasing mental health of youth will have long term consequences. Also, overweight will deeply impact older people’s health in the future. Lastly, climate change in combination with e.g. energy transition will deeply affect our society and living environment. Next to these challenges, there will also be opportunities to improve health. Building a climate-proof living environment that also stimulates healthy life styles and social interaction is one of them. However, improving health has linkages with policy areas outside the traditional public health domain as well and requires, firstly, a Health in/for All Policies approach. Secondly a whole-of-society approach in which companies and civil organizations take action is needed. All these efforts can only be effective if people and communities are put at the core of all health policies.

Urbanization Rapidity and Its Impact on Shuklagandaki Municipality

This study examines the trends and causes of urbanization as well as how they affect Nepal's Shuklagandaki Municipality, which is urbanizing quickly. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study incorporates data from both qualitative and quantitative sources. Quantitative information was gathered from field survey and qualitative data were collected from public reports, census records, and government statistics to examine demographic and economic developments in the municipality during the previous 20 years. Through in-depth interviews with important stakeholders, such as public servants, company owners, and community leaders, qualitative data were acquired. Regression analysis and other descriptive and inferential statistics were used in the data analysis process. The results show that throughout the past 20 years, Shuklagandaki Municipality has had notable increase in both demographic and economic metrics. Urban expansion was primarily driven by population increase and economic development; infrastructural improvements, while significant, were secondary. The necessity for planning and policy initiatives that support sustainable growth while attending to the needs and well-being of present and future inhabitants is highlighted by the difficulties and possibilities brought about by the fast urbanization. The article finishes with a summary of the key results, a discussion of the research limitations, and references for future research topics to fill in the gaps in the body of knowledge and address unresolved issues with urban expansion in Shuklagandaki Municipality.

Surface water dynamics of Africa: Analysing continental trends and identifying drivers for major lakes and reservoirs

ABSTRACT Africa has the most dynamic demographic development worldwide. Current projections predict a population of > 3 billion people by the end of the century. Sub-Saharan Africa alone will likely see a 40% increase in population between 2020 and 2050. Although it is well known that large parts of Africa are in a constant state of water stress, its surface water resources remain understudied. This study analyses long-term trends of surface water in Africa. It identifies causal impacts on major lakes and reservoirs for the timeframe 2003–2020, as well as dynamic and causal similarities between the various lakes. For this, a set of daily time series based on Earth observation is employed. Global WaterPack data is used for a daily uninterrupted time series of the continent’s surface water area. Additionally, an array of relevant independent variables, namely precipitation, total evapotranspiration, groundwater, soil moisture, and gross primary productivity (GPP) in different land use areas is analysed. For causal identification, the Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence algorithm is used. Findings show that > 42% of African countries and > 34% of African ecoregions experience shrinking surface water area. Over 80% of investigated surface water bodies are driven by the surface water in their upstream subbasins and GPP in agriculturally used areas. About 85% of investigated lakes are significantly driven by agricultural usage, often in the form of water abstraction, as referenced regional studies confirm. Our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of conducting causal analyses of surface water dynamics using Earth observation data. Dynamically similar lakes are often impacted by the same drivers, forming regional lake clusters. Considering the causes identified may greatly help adapt strategies for sustainable development. A causality analysis to identify drivers of surface water dynamics has, to our knowledge, never been performed before on this scale and at such high temporal resolution.

The impact of geopolitical processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina on urban development and cultural identity

The historical-geographical development of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) in the area of the fusion of Western and Eastern Christian civilizations and the Orient resulted in ethnic and religious heterogeneity, occasional political crises and ethnic conflicts that shaped the cultural identity and character of the entire development. BH was separated from the Yugoslav community in the conditions of the civil war. After the war in 1995, a complex administrative-territorial organization of the new state was established, based on the ethnic and religious affiliation of the population. At the same time, the transition of the socialist social system took place, as well as other geopolitical processes and social changes in the Western Balkans initiated by globalization. The paper focuses on cultural disintegration and changes in urban identity and development of cities through the analysis of the six largest urban centers as indicators of social changes in BH. The results of the analysis suggest that there has been a cultural differentiation of society, which is reflected in changes in the ethnic and religious structure of the population and their spatial distribution. Economic stagnation and depopulation of urban centers, as a consequence of the civil war and social reforms, were confirmed by a comparative analysis of statistical indicators of economic and demographic development. Cultural changes were determined by relevant scientific methods and approaches: historical-geographical method, comparative analysis of statistics of demographic indicators and changes in spatial distribution, ethnic and religious structure of the population, and economic changes by analysis of employment in sectors of the economy. The scientific results of previously published papers devoted to some of the mentioned problems, primarily economic development and population dynamics in BH and its large cities, were also taken into account. In this paper, social changes are observed through the cause-and-effect relationships of geopolitical and cultural processes (political, economic and cultural disintegration), social and economic reforms (ownership transition and deindustrialization) and their manifestations on cultural identity and the development of urban centers.

The Impact of Transport Costs on Business Decision-Making in Rural Areas

Mobility challenges in rural areas can have a negative impact on economic and demographic development. People in these areas often have to move to urban areas to find quality jobs or services, which can lead to a decline in population, and economic activity. In this paper we analyze the factors influencing business decisions in rural areas. Public transport infrastructure based on short energy cycles using solar energy represents a solution to boost business decision management in rural areas.

Socio-economic consequences for Central Europe related to the mass migration of Ukrainian citizens after Russia's full-scale invasion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused displacement on a scale not seen since the Second World War. More than 6.5 million refugees from Ukraine have been registered worldwide (as of 16 May 2024), and more than 4.2 million Ukrainians have received temporary protection in the EU. Most of them found shelter in Poland and Germany. These countries have received an influx of migrants that corresponds to the logic of their demographic development. Ukrainians are almost an ideal demographic resource for Central Europe. In August 2023, only one person in three wanted to return to Ukraine. If the Ukrainian refugees are properly adapted, they will provide additional development impulses to the countries where they reside.

Cardiovascular prevention in Saxony-Anhalt : Necessity and new perspectives

Cardiovascular risk factors (high blood pressure, smoking, overweight, type2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, physical inactivity) substantially rise with increasing age, particularly after middle age, whereby women are affected to amuch greater extent. In the population of Saxony-Anhalt the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors is clearly increased and the population structure in Saxony-Anhalt is particularly characterized by ahigh average age as well as high morbidity and mortality rates due to cardiovascular diseases. Saxony-Anhalt therefore provides amodel character for the demographic development in Europe. This review article discusses strategies for the implementation of target group-specific cardiovascular preventive strategies in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt with special consideration of age and sex. When preventive medicine facilities are established and innovative treatment possibilities for patients with cardiovascular risks are created, prevention should also become available in rural areas.

Evaluating Current Demographic Challenges in Ukraine due to the Forced Migration of Economically Active Citizens

The relevance of the research topic is driven by the increasing risks to demographic development due to the war in Ukraine and the outflow of the economically active population. The article outlines the importance of demographic processes for the country’s economic stability and social development. The research aims to analyse the impact of migration flows on Ukraine’s demographic situation and develop proposals for improving demographics. The methodology includes the analysis of the current state of demographics, migration processes, development scenarios, and possible measures to ensure development stability. The research results reveal the problems of demographic development through the geographical diversification of the economically active population. An essential area of the study in the article is the analysis of the impact of forced migration on the labour market, social structure, and economic development of Ukraine. The practical significance involves the development of recommendations for state policy regarding supporting demographic development during the war and the post-war period. The article aims to evaluate measures to stimulate the return of migrants, support birth rates, and improve social infrastructure. The analysis results may help develop strategic plans to restore Ukraine’s demographic potential. Measures to strengthen demographic stability and their possible implementation are presented in the face of current challenges. Further directions for optimising state policy to ensure sustainable demographic growth and economic development of the country are outlined.

State and Possibilities of Strengthening the Labor Potential of Russia (Based on the All-Russian Population Census 2020)

Introduction. The most complete information on the size and composition of the population is provided by continuous population censuses, which collect information necessary for the analysis of quantitative and qualitative changes in the composition of the population and the labor force. The purpose of the study is to identify changes in the numerical composition, age structure, and qualitative parameters of the labor potential of the Russian population in the period between the All-Russian population censuses of 2010 and 2020, and to outline ways to strengthen it. Materials and Methods. The study was based on the results of the All-Russian Population Censuses of 2010 and 2020, current accounting data and forecast calculations of Rosstat, publications of scientists engaged in research in the field of economic demography. The analysis of changes in the demographic development of the Russian Federation in the intercensal period was carried out using the methods of dynamic and structural analysis, and the generalization of the results of published scientific research was made on the basis of critical analysis. Quantitative parameters of the labor potential were estimated on the basis of indicators of the population of working age, employed in the economy, unemployed citizens and potential labor force. Results. The main changes in the number and composition of the Russian population by age and education that occurred during the inter-census period have been established. The quantitative and qualitative parameters of the labor force are determined. The outstripping growth of the level of education of unemployed citizens and potential labor force in comparison with those employed in the economy has been revealed, which, with a high degree of depreciation of the active part of fixed assets and a large part of workplaces with harmful and dangerous working conditions, suggests the archaic nature of the Russian economy and the general discrepancy between its requests and the level of education of the population. Calculations have shown that due to the involvement of potential labor in public production, it will not be possible to solve the problem of labor shortage. Discussion and Conclusion. In order to provide the Russian economy with the necessary labor force, it is suggested to consider the following options for increasing the working time fund: temporary increase in the retirement age for women, temporary decrease in the number of holidays, temporary decrease in the duration of paid leave, temporary increase in the length of the working week. The results of the research can be useful for scientists and representatives of public authorities dealing with demographic development, strategic planning, regional development, migration regulation, as well as for specialists in the field of personnel training.

Depopulation and Limitations of Demographic Statistics in the Republic of Belarus

The article considers the problems in the demographic processes of the Republic of Belarus. The fluctuations in the modern demographic "waves" of Belarus are analyzed. It is argued that the reproductive processes of the Republic are characterized by changes in the depopulation spiral. Concern about the prospects for its demographic development is substantiated. The problems of the state demographic policy in overcoming depopulation are noted. The state of the Belarusian demographic science in developing approaches to the implementation of demographic policy is highlighted. A characteristic of management decisions is given, both their positive and negative role in the implementation of demographic policy. The significance of the Concept of National Security of the Republic of Belarus and the role of ensuring demographic security in it are shown. In the light of the Concept of National Security of the country, the consequences of restrictions on statistical information for demographic science and demographic policy of Belarus are studied. The role of demographic information in ensuring the national security of the Republic is revealed. The results of the mechanism for recounting the population from the results of the 2019 population census are disclosed. Methodological approaches to calculating the indicators of the reproductive situation of Belarus in 2020-2023 are presented. in conditions of limited demographic statistics.

DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS OF THE FAMILY INSTITUTION IN KAZAKHSTAN

In the sphere of demographic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, there are changes in trends in the formation of the family institution, the ethnic structure of the population and the dynamics of migration processes. The purpose of the article is to study the key dynamic indicators of the development of the family institution based on the results of the latest population census in 2021. The article examines the main trends in the birth rate, the proportion of large families, the number of marriages and divorces. Indicators of reproductive intentions (plans) by number of children were also analyzed. Official information from state statistics was used as sources. Thus, for the first time in Kazakhstan, the demographic features of the current state of the family institution based on the results of national censuses have been comprehensively studied in a comparative prism. In general, as a result of global social and gender changes, a certain transformation of the institution of family in Kazakhstan is taking place. Probably, in the medium term, this will contribute to the emergence of new areas of collective responsibility between society and the state.

Migration processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan: current situation and consequences

Rural population migration is an objective process that affects the economic, environmental, social and demographic development of countries and their individual territories. Regulation and supervision of the migration process is one of the priority tasks of the state. The aim is to the scale and direction of migration flows in rural areas of the republic, the reasons for migration and the degree of influence on the labor market in rural areas are considered. Methods - comparisons to determine quantitative indicators characterizing the level of resettlement of economically active citizens. Assessment of the dynamics of those who arrived and left the RS was carried out by the methods of grouping and graphical analysis. Generalization method - in formulating the main aspects of resettlement. Results - the authors state that it is necessary to improve the mechanisms of legal labor migration, explanation and counseling, legal protection and organizational measures for those arriving and departing. Special attention should be paid to the development of infrastructure, creation of new jobs, career opportunities, high income, social conditions in rural settlements (RS) with high levels of local displacement. Based on the study, it is concluded that even positive trends and sustainable growth in production do not suppress the incentives for outflow to the city both for permanent residence and in search of temporary work. Conclusions - the location of rural areas near the regional center, the location of agricultural enterprises and farms, favorable natural and climatic conditions have a great impact on the attraction of migrants to rural areas. Based on the above, the key factor contributing to the reduction of migration loss of population can be called diversification of the economy in rural areas, further development of existing and creation of new production facilities.

Intraoperative cartilage analysis of the first carpometacarpal joint - comparison with conventional staging according to Eaton and Littler.

Osteoarthritis of the first carpometacarpal joint is a common pathology of the hand, which may show an increasing prevalence in Germany due to the demographic development. In recent years, not only the current gold standard - the resection arthroplasty of the thumb saddle joint - has been used, but also therapeutic thumb saddle joint arthroscopy. In addition to the patient's clinical complaints, radiographic diagnostics have been used to decide on treatment, although it has not been proven whether there is a correlation between imaging and clinical complaints. Between 2020 and 2022, 20 articular surfaces of the thumb saddle joint undergoing resection arthroplasty for symptomatic basal thumb osteoarthritis were prospectively examined, mapped and compared with preoperative conventional radiographs. The evaluation of the corresponding articular surfaces showed a higher cartilage destruction at the articular surfaces of the trapezium compared to the first metacarpal. No correlation was found between the stage of osteoarthritis and the Eaton-Littler classification. Overall, there is a patient-specific heterogeneity of the cartilage damage of the articular surface of the trapezium bone, as well in the metacarpal bone I base in relation to the radiographic diagnosis. Furthermore, an inhomogeneity of the radiographic stage of osteoarthritis of the carpometacarpal joint according to Eaton and Littler in relation to the intraoperatively assessed cartilage damage. The statistical significance of the surgically assessed cartilage damage in relation to the conventional radiographs could not be demonstrated. Thus, the treatment of symptomatic osteoarthritis of the carpometacarpal joint should primarily address the patient's individual complaints. The radiographic classification according to Eaton and Littler can be used as an additional factor to decide on the surgical procedure but should not delay the therapeutic treatment. III.

A new paradigm for local infrastructure to enhance the potential of Finiq and its surrounding

The main aim of this report is to promote an innovative approach for Municipalities, engineers and designers showing instruments and methodologies to envision a new paradigm for the future of those areas that area suffering emigration of population and lack of infrastructures. A specific case study has been identify in the village of Finiq, located in the South of Albania - and topic of the 8th International Workshop of Tirana – which, due to the isolation of its population, related to historical and geo-morphological characteristics, is registering a constant shrinking of the inhabitants in search of occupational and educational facilities. Within the development of the investigation Finiq has been first evaluated at local scale – estimating the needs of the inhabitants – and secondly it has been systemised with the sur- rounding villages: Aliko, Mesopotam, Vrion. This approach led to an implementation of the interconnection within the villages as necessary action to overcome the isolation of all the inhabitants. This analysis has been the starting point for the definition of the strategy to adopt as an opportunity to develop an innovative structure for the management of mobility, local resources and energy use, to increase the touristic attractiveness of the site and to provide the inhabit- ant with a strategic and widespread infrastructure. To be truly effective, the mentioned approach includes an active participation of the citizen/ user, who becomes the main actor and prosumer of his own infrastructure and whom, through an adequate information program, becomes able to modify and align his own behaviors to this new one paradigm. The outcome of this report has the characteristics to be implemented and replicated in other context with similar issues, not only by designers but also by public administrations or private stakeholders that have to confront with similar social and demographic issues, putting an end to the systematic abandonment of the areas and to unlock their economic and demographic development.

«Демографический» фактор рождаемости: оценка потенциала территории на примере Нижегородской области

Introduction. Despite the implementation of serious measures in the framework of state family policy to stabilise the demographic situation, it remains difficult in most regions. This is due, firstly, to the new challenges the country is facing, and secondly, to the complexity of the very processes that need to be controlled. Population size, being a complex quantitative indicator of the stability of society, is determined by a number of demographic processes, among which fertility remains the main one. The number of studies attempting to identify the factors determining fertility trends is growing. All of them demonstrate the complexity and multifactorial nature of the process and the changes taking place. More and more often attention is paid to the demographic characteristics (sex-age and marriage structure) of the population as a starting point from which to begin the assessment of the territory and its reproductive potential.Nizhny Novgorod region, being a typical Russian region, has been demonstrating an unfavourable scenario of demographic situation development in recent decades. The article attempts to describe and assess the reproductive potential of the region, to identify the possibilities and limitations of fertility growth in the current conditions, based on the analysis of the ‘demographic’ factor.Materials and methods. The analysis and conclusions are based on the data of the Federal State Statistics Service on demographic processes in Russia and the region for 1990-2023 (population size, birth rate, marriage rate, divorce rate), as well as on the data of regional sociological studies on fertility and family/reproductive behaviour.Results and discussion. The results of the study provide little basis for a favourable forecast in the region. On the one hand, the sex and age structure of the population is not yet characterised by disproportion in fertile ages, except for the oldest groups. However, there is a high probability of its appearance in younger ages under current conditions. In addition, active and potential fertile groups of women are significantly smaller than older groups. The marriage structure is becoming more stable, but with a high probability of divorce, acceptability of cohabitation, and a shift of births to older groups. The studies record a persistent gap between the desired and actual number of children in different socio-demographic groups, which, from the authors' point of view, is important and requires careful research to correctly stimulate fertility.

A stochastic-demographic model to explain success and dominance in international sports

We model a stochastic, demographic-based framework to examine how an empirically proven, so-called first mover advantage affects the long-term sporting success of states by considering, among other things, demographic developments and the accumulation of sport-related human capital. In order to clarify and formalize this advantage in a sports economics framework, we draw on the concept of the stochastic dominance. Since our model is dynamic, it allows us to show how the probability of success of a nation evolves and under which conditions the stochastic dominance reduces.