Demographic Development Research Articles

Demographic Dynamics and Social Transformation in the EAEU

The paper studies demographic changes characterizing new trends in population reproduction in the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which differ significantly in the level and rate of population aging. The purpose of the research is to develop proposals for improving social institutions aimed at the development of the EAEU in the context of changes in the age structure of the population. The Eurasian Economic Union is a relatively new but rapidly developing regional integration organization, in a certain sense forming the core of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). At the same time, the transition to subsequent integration stages is impossible without the development of social institutions of the EAEU. Currently, the development of social programs and norms for the formation of common social values is not included in the tasks of regional unions in the post-Soviet space or is considered only in passing. Nevertheless, for further integration it becomes essential to take into account demographic trends as factors in the development of the EAEU. The article shows that over the past six years (2017–2022) in the field of natural reproduction, demographic trends in the member countries of the Union had different directions. The greatest impact on the demographic development of the EAEU is exerted by changes in the population of the Russian Federation, although in recent years there has been a slight decrease in the share of Russia in the total population of the Union. The population of the EAEU countries has significant differences in age structure, however, all five member countries of the Union are affected by the process of demographic aging. The article presents a number of proposals aimed at including demographic changes as a factor in the development of the EAEU. These include the preparation of a comprehensive program of interaction on general humanitarian issues, primarily in the field of education and the preservation of cultural values as the basis for the connection between generations.

Managing the Demographic Development of Wastelands: The Historical Experience of Manchuria and Hokkaido at the Turn of the XIX-XX Centuries

Mankind has developed many methods of settlement. Most of them have only informative value today. For practical purposes, we can be interested only in recent historical cases characterized, on the one hand, by mass scale and, on the other hand, by the increasing value of human life. In this article we will consider two such cases that took place at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries in Northeast Asia: Manchuria and Hokkaido. By this time, the region was becoming a focus of political interests of the powers; to a large extent, the world’s attention began to shift to the events taking place here because of the gradually opening up of planetary-level economic potential. Wars and uprisings are breaking out here, and in parallel, migrants are actively flocking here. What were the goals of this movement? How was it controlled? How was it stimulated? What did these processes have in common and what distinguished them from each other? We will try to answer these questions in this article.

Interregional and international migration as factors of gender disparities in the regions of Russia

The subject of the study is the disproportion in the number of men and women at young ages in the regions of Russia. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of interregional and international migration on the formation of gender imbalances in the regions of Russia. As a hypothesis, it was assumed that the results of the analysis of migration statistics would coincide with the results presented in the 2020 census. The available statistical series of the inter-census period 2017-2019 were used for the study. The indicator of accumulated migration gender imbalance by the age of 29 was developed and applied and correlated with the population aged 25-29 years, maps were built based on the results obtained. It is noted that in most regions of Russia there is an emigration of women starting in very early childhood. Young women are actively moving out of poor regions, from regions with a low level of social development, mainly to metropolitan agglomerations of St. Petersburg and Moscow, Moving to agglomerations with expensive housing entails postponing marriage, a drop in the birth rate, regions lose their reproductive potential. At the same time, there is a labor immigration of young men, mainly from the republics of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which, combined with the outflow of girls, creates a numerical male preponderance at young ages, especially in the resource-raw regions of the Far East and Siberia, in the coastal Kaluga region, in the Republic of Mordovia, which is confirmed by the 2020 census data. At the age of 25-29, there are departures of men from southern regions to more northern ones for forced work with separation from families, which negatively affects family life and demographic development. Income equalization is necessary to eliminate gender imbalances, correct negative demographic trends, increase fertility, and strengthen family ties. Financial resources, including resource and raw material rents, and bank capital should be used to raise wages, to recreate traditional industries in the southern regions and countries; and to create a high level of social infrastructure comfortable for families with children in the regions of the North. The results of the study can be applied in regional and international politics to develop government decisions involving large businesses to invest in countries and regions. The conduct of future gender studies by country and region will be closely linked to the quality and availability of statistical material on this topic.

Methodology for assessing demographic well-being of the Northern regions of the resource type

In today’s macroeconomic and political conditions, demographic trends in the Russian Federation, which are characterized by population decline, it is necessary to identify positive directions and targets of demographic policy, which will raise the level of well-being of the population and improve its quality of life, and therefore, to expand accordingly the use of the concept of «demographic well-being» in monitoring and analysis. Demographic science does not yet use the concept of «well-being», although certain signs of its implementation from psychology and sociology are noted [1]. Demographic development of regions is an important aspect of the study, since it is directly related to the socio-economic state and prospects for further development of the Northern territories that will improve the demographic well-being and cope with the challenges facing modern society. At the state level, demographic processes are considered primarily in terms of national security by such domestic researchers as V.A. Iontsev, L.L. Rybakovsky, S.V. Soboleva, A. G. Vishnevsky and others. The purpose of the study is to present methodological tools for analyzing modern trends in the demographic development of the Northern regions based on complex indicators that allow assessing «demographic well-being» by qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the population. As a result of the work, a typology of Russian regions has been developed with the account of their demographic characteristics and differences. Groups of regions with similar trends and demographic characteristics are identified, that makes it possible to assess more accurately the level of demographic development and compare it by regions. The article is addressed to representatives of government authorities, researchers, teachers and students of higher and secondary specialized educational institutions who are interested in various aspects of the development and implementation of the state demographic policy in Russia.

Evolving environmental awareness and shifts in management priorities: a socioeconomic lens on the min river basin, China

Watersheds have experienced economic and demographic development for decades. In China, this development has been associated with environmental degradation, including water quality deterioration, abnormal stream flow, and biotic resource depletion. Effective watershed management incorporates sustainability and public involvement, enabling the long-term security of the human and natural world. Management strategies however need to take into account local conditions, as every watershed is unique. This paper adopts the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with the random forest model to investigate the shift in participants’ environmental awareness across different socioeconomic groups over the past 15 years. Additionally, it scrutinizes the changing public perceptions on the management priorities and areas requiring enhancement. The AHP index highlighted the importance of environmental behavioral intentions (EBI) as a component of environmental awareness (EA). Between 2006 and 2021, significant changes occurred in public environmental awareness (perception, knowledge, behavioral intention) and perceived management priorities, stressing the need for timely adjustment of management policies. Notably, environmental concern (EC) appears to have decreased over time, reflecting effective management and increased governmental attention. Emphasis on the recreational ecosystem services offered by watershed forests has increased. Males, individuals aged over 40-years-old, and individuals located in the upper reaches possessed higher risk perceptions than other groups. These findings may help policymakers to adjust management priorities based on geographic region and may assist them in promoting more effective measures to communicate watershed sustainable management goals and strategies to the public.

Long-term trends of infant mortality rates in post-socialist EU countries

Motives: Post-socialist European countries experienced significant political turmoil and economic and social changes in the late 1980s and the early 1990s due to regime change. These changes had a profound impact on their subsequent socioeconomic and demographic development. Since infant mortality rates (IMRs) are closely related to socio-economic changes, this study was undertaken to determine whether these changes affected IMRs in the transitional period.Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in IMRs in eleven post-socialist European countries that are currently European Union (EU) members, and to compare IMRs in these countries with the remaining EU Member States. The changes in the slope of the IMR trend line were determined by a joinpoint regression analysis. The influence of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP) on IMRs in all EU countries was also examined.Results: It was found that the collapse of the socialist regime increased IMRs in post-socialist EU countries, and that contrary to other EU Member States, the changes in GDP per capita PPP continue to have a significant impact on IMRs in post-socialist EU countries.

Population Development in the Czech Republic in 2022

The article analyses the demographic development of Czech Republic in 2022 and sets it in the context of demographic trends in the last decade 2013–2022. The study focuses on the main demographic processes, namely fertility, mortality, nuptiality, divorce rate, and migration. The population of the Czech Republic grew as a result of the positive balance of international migration in 2022. Although the number of deaths decreased significantly year-on-year, the number of live births decreased considerably as well. Life expectancy at birth has increased for both sexes. The number of marriages increased to the level of 2018. The divorce rate continued its decline and, unlike nuptiality, it did not return to its pre-pandemic level.

Caregiving for frail home-dwelling older people: A qualitative study of family caregivers' experiences.

The increasing frailty of home-dwelling older people can lead to rising expectations from their family caregivers due to various demographic developments and political guidelines. European data show that 60% of home-dwelling older people receive informal care. Frailty among older people is a state of vulnerability, increasing the risk of adverse health outcomes, declining daily activities and needing long-term care. To explore family caregivers' lived experiences with caring for frail, home-dwelling older people. We conducted a phenomenological study to obtain in-depth descriptions of the phenomenon. We interviewed nine family caregivers, five men and four women between 52 and 90 years old, in-depth in their homes. We used a hermeneutical phenomenological approach described by van Manen and followed the COREQ checklist. The phenomenon's essential meaning is described as striving to adapt throughout the caring relationship. The interrelated themes describe different caring relationships, caring for a family member and letting go of the primary caring responsibility. Family caregivers describe care as meaningful yet demanding. In our study, the varying condition of frailty was an additional challenge in care. By addressing these challenges, healthcare providers can better support and help family caregivers to withstand their caring relationships. The Norwegian Centre for Research Data approved the study (Ref.61202).

Searching for the North Star or how to navigate a boat with a fixed rudder through turbulent times

AbstractThis piece of work aims to connect the governance and leadership levels of foundations with the demand to respond to the societal poly‐crisis. Challenges such as climate change, migration, demographic development and economic debts cannot be solved on the level of a single country and, thus, call for joint action. Given the inherent independence of foundations, an analysis of how foundations can strengthen their contribution to solve the global poly‐crisis has to begin with the single organisation, its purpose and its leaders. However, how feasible is it to evolve, transform even, governance and leadership in philanthropic organisations, which are often considered rather rigid and inflexible organisations? Based on arguments on governance and leadership of foundations from both the academic and the public debate, we formulate four propositions on how foundation leaders can adapt their foundation to the current societal situation. The propositions include aspects such as transparency, empowerment, sensemaking and leadership support.

Население Дагестана 1930–1945 гг.: историко-демографический аспект

The article examines demographic processes in Dagestan during one of the dramatic periods in the history of the country. On the basis of the All-Union Population censuses of 1937, 1939, and special literature, the number, sex and age composition, ethnic structure, and demography of the family are characterized. Of particular relevance is the study of the demographic development of such a peculiar region as Dagestan, with its motley ethnic picture. The conclusion is formulated that during the studied period there were fundamental changes in the demographic composition of Dagestanis: natural growth and mechanical growth, the ratio of urban and rural population.

Understanding climate resilience in Scandinavia during the Neolithic and Early Bronze Age

Mid and late-Holocene climate shifts are considered to have profoundly shaped demographic developments and adaptive responses of communities globally. Yet their onset, duration, and impact on Neolithic and Early Nordic Bronze Age communities in the high-latitude ranges of southern and north-western Scandinavia remain a major research gap. Here, we built on an emerging body of archaeological and paleoclimate data, encompassing 20,908 anthropogenic 14C dates and 49 climate records from the Holocene. Additionally, we gathered and correlated a new archaeological dataset of 3649 houses from southern Scandinavia and southern Norway. In this study, we utilised 6268 reliable 14C dates and 2519 dwellings to generate time series and socio-economic trends from ∼4100 to 1100 BCE.Our study revealed three key findings: (1) A distinct lateral zonation, with variations in the duration and timing of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (∼7050–2050 BCE). In Southern Scandinavia, a warmer climate may have facilitated the spread of crop cultivation (3820–3790 BCE), coinciding with significant population growth. Neolithic communities settled in permanent two-aisled houses 90–160 years later (3700–3660 BCE). (2) The 2250 BCE (4.2 ka BP) cooling trend marked the beginning of a climate regime shift with varying duration and timing (∼3450–1450 BCE). This period coincided with demographic growth, migration, crop cultivation diversity, and the development of houses with crop storage facilities (2290–2215 BCE). (3) Severe abrupt cooling periods (∼1850–1450 BCE) corresponded to short-term demographic decline including disruptions in trade networks with continental Europe. However, repopulation and redistribution of wealth (∼1450 BCE), along with the development of stable three-aisled houses (1475–1450 BCE), underscore the resilience of food-producing economies in mitigating environmental disturbances.

Managing the social potential of the information environment as a basis for demographic sustainability

In the context of increasing instability in international relations it is one of the forms and strategies in the struggle for human potential. Ideologies, which are actively used to destroy the socio-economic systems of other countries, influence the value orientations of individuals, change their motivation for effective interaction in the preservation and sovereign development of their own national model, become a powerful weapon in the era of digital transformation of society. Under these conditions, it becomes necessary to manage the social potential of the information environment as a condition of demographic security. The article describes the results of the research concerning the influence of information environment on the changes in demographic attitudes and migratory behavior, as well as on the socio-demographic situation in the country in general. The necessity of identifying informational and socio-cultural factors that have an impact on sustainable demographic development of the republic is reviewed.

Impacts of climate change and environmental pollution: a public health foresight study

Abstract Background In the Netherlands, the National Public Health Foresight Study (PHF) is published every 4 years, as starting point for national and local public health policy development. A priority topic in the PHF2024 is climate change and living environment. The important transitions (energy, food, mobility, housing) that are required all require space and thus pose a societal challenge for the future quality of the living environment. Approach We use a mixed method approach to identify main trends and impacts on public health: - analysis of Demographic, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological, Ecological and Political developments (DESTEP) based on a literature review and expert consultation; -organization of focus group discussions with young people (N = 41); -analysis of mortality data in relation to temperature; -evaluation of trend-scenarios. Results Direct and indirect health impacts of climate change will become more visible in the next 30 years. These need not all be negative. For example, an earlier edition of the PHF already showed that the increase in temperature may lead to less deaths in winter but more deaths in summer. In the PHF we will focus not only on adverse health consequences, but also identify opportunities for health improvement through climate mitigation and adaptation. Similarly we will look into related developments like energy and mobility transitions, that may (partly) result in health gains, depending on how they will be implemented and who will be affected. For example, we will look into possible improvement of air quality and its impact on health. The preliminary findings of our focus group study suggest, however, that young people are mostly pessimistic regarding developments in our living environment. This is particularly the case for climate change; young people fear that this may cause severe events. Nevertheless, they have high expectations regarding technological advancement in the energy sector. Key messages • Foresight studies should not focus on risk alone but also identify possible health promoting developments in the living environment. • Expert views and views of lay people, in particular youth, may not necessarily be identical. Both need to be addressed in foresight studies.

Emigration From Post-Communist Central Europe After 1989 Interpreted Within the Aspirations/Capabilities Framework

In the period of post-communist transition, Central Europe witnessed complex and multifaceted mobility processes; permanent outmigration, of an ethnic or labour-related nature, coexisted with temporary, seasonal, or cross-border movements and an increasing influx of foreigners. To study these complex processes, we have chosen to apply a holistic and comprehensive approach, rather than limit conceptual considerations to one theory of migration determinants. We focus on eleven post-communist countries that joined the European Union (EU-11) and on the period extending from around 1989, covering the EU’s eastward enlargement, to the present. The aim of this study is twofold: first, we propose a general conceptual framework, based on the aspirations/capabilities approach, to present the main determinants of emigration from this part of the European continent. Second, in relation to each determinant, we formulate research questions postulated by selected theories of international migration and present the evidence, based on existing empirical studies, that addresses these questions. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a broad interpretation of post-transition mobility and pointing to commonly overlooked explanatory factors. We highlight the importance of economic factors that have enhanced and directed the outward migration from the EU-11 to selected EU member states and selected economic sectors; in particular, as regards capabilities, these factors include the lifting of labour market restrictions, high demand in the secondary sector of labour markets, and the roles of migration networks and the migration industry. Emphasis is also placed on aspirational factors, such as labour market failures and the substantial aspirational gap resulting from improvements in high educational attainment in the countries of origin. The aspirations/capabilities approach serves well as a general framework of migration determinants, but its explanatory power is enhanced by reference to other, more specific theories of migration. We show that a combination of the complementary approaches provides a more refined and in-depth picture of migration from the region.
 * This article belongs to a special issue on “Demographic Developments in Eastern and Western Europe Before and After the Transformation of Socialist Countries”.

Don’t Look Up: House Prices in Emerging Europe

Abstract This paper investigates how housing prices respond to economic, financial and demographic conditions in emerging markets in Europe. We use quarterly data covering 10 countries over the period 1998–2022 and implement a panel quantile regression approach to obtain a granular analysis of real estate markets. Overall, economic, financial and demographic developments explain real house price growth in emerging Europe, with income growth having the most significant impact. Quantile regression estimations show that income growth matters more for higher quantiles of the property market. We also find that an increase in short-term or long-term interest rates has a price-dampening impact, indicating that a higher cost of borrowing is associated with lower real house price growth. These results indicate that the downturn in house prices could deepen with the looming economic recession and soaring interest rates.

Flood Risk and Vulnerability from a Changing Climate Perspective: An Overview Focusing on Flash Floods and Associated Hazards in Jeddah

Natural hazard threats have grown as a result of climate change, fast demographic development, and major urbanization. Devastating floods have occurred in several areas of the world recently, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which is located in a region with a dry environment. In arid or semi-arid regions, rapidly forming flash floods associated with debris flowing down over dry water courses leading to a potential threat to both lives and property. Being located at the coastal plain of western Saudi Arabia, Jeddah City has witnessed an unexpected amount of rainfall events in recent years. Such extreme rainfall events, integrated with other factors, namely topography, land use, surface runoff, etc., have led to flood generation, which is alarming indeed. Herein, this paper addresses the varying climatic classifications of the Kingdom, its risk and vulnerability, followed by reasoning about the impact of flash flood events and the associated casualties and property losses. Further, it reports about the existing strategies of the government and proposes a systematic way forward on how to alleviate such events in future. Thus, risk variables have been discovered and integrated in the context of climate change and rising anthropogenic strain on coastal communities to give planners and decision makers tools to assure effective and appropriate flood risk management.

Management of bullous pemphigoid and mucous membrane pemphigoid

Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is the most common blistering autoimmune dermatosis and, as an age-associated disease, is also the bullous dermatosis with the highest increase in incidence in recent years due to demographic developments. Mucous membrane pemphigoid (MMP), which is less common, is aclinically and immunopathologically heterogeneous blistering autoimmune dermatosis characterized by blisters and erosions on mucous membranes. This work summarizes the manifold clinical characteristics of both diseases and provides an up-to-date overview of diagnostics and therapy of BP and SHP. Aselective literature search was carried out. While eczematous, urticarial, or bullous lesions on the integument are typical for BP, MMP is characterized by pronounced, erosive mucosal changes orally, ocularly, genitoanally, tracheally or esophageally and, at most, only minor skin involvement. For diagnosis, the combination of histology, direct immunofluorescence microscopy, and serological detection of autoantibodies against the hemidesmosomal proteins BP180 and BP230 and, in MMP, also against laminin 332 is important. New pathophysiological findings and therapeutics have recently significantly expanded the range of treatment options. Due to the comorbidities of the usually elderly BP patients and the often multiple affected mucous membranes in MMP, with the risk of developing irreversible complications such as strictures and synechiae, interdisciplinary diagnosis and therapy is often required.

Healthcare provision of transcatheter aortic valve implantation in Germany.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) for aortic stenosis in older patients is the standard of care with awell-established supply density in Germany. In the near future, healthcare reform is planned that may affect TAVI capacities. Therefore, it is important to know how political regulations may interfere with access to services and what the need for TAVI will be in the future, based on demographic trends. The number of TAVI procedures (DRG F98A +F98) and the in-hospital main diagnoses of aortic stenosis (ICD I35) in 2021 were analyzed at the level of county or federal state based on anonymized data from hospital reports, according to §21 of the German hospital reimbursement law. The number of TAVI and aortic stenosis cases was projected for 2035 based on data from the German Federal Statistical Office on demographic developments. With quality assurance data from hospitals in 2019 and aroute planner, the travel time to the next hospital performing TAVI (OPS 5‑35a.0) was calculated, and the consequence of apolitically suggested minimum volume cut-off was analyzed. In 2021, atotal of 26,506 TAVI procedures were reported with amean number of TAVI per 100,000 inhabitants of32 (range between federal states from25 to42). Among the 66,045 diagnoses of aortic stenosis, there was avariation per 100,000 inhabitants from64 to 108 (mean79) between federal states. Compared to 2021, an additional 8748 (+13%) diagnoses of aortic stenosis and an increase of 4673 (+18%) TAVI procedures is to be expected in 2035. In 2019, 57% of German citizens could reach aTAVI hospital within 30 min and 91% within 60 min of driving time by car (mean time to hospital 31 min). Applying aminimum number of 150 TAVI/hospital per year would increase the driving time to hospital from 33to 52 min in Saxony-Anhalt and instantly remove six out of eight hospitals from service in Hesse. Regulation of TAVI services by minimum volume numbers would arbitrarily interfere with access to services, in contradiction to the medical service assurance tasks of federal state governments. These issues should be considered in the upcoming healthcare system reform.

The Urgent Need for Nutritional Medical Care in Geriatric Patients-Malnutrition in Nursing Homes.

Patients aged 65 and over who are accommodated in hospitals and nursing homes are at high risk of malnutrition and often show signs of it. The future relevance of this problem becomes clear, especially in view of the demographic development of the coming years and decades. In this study, the correlation between malnutrition, hypoalbuminemia, anemia, elevated CRP, and low transferrin levels, as well as mortality in seniors between 65 and 100 years, should be revealed. Therefore, the prevalence of disease-specific malnutrition (DRM), according to the criteria of the guidelines of the German Society of Nutritional Medicine (DGEM), and the prevalence of hypoalbuminemia were presented based on the data of 120 residents who were inpatients in a large Viennese nursing home between 01/2017 and 08/2020. Moreover, 86 of the inpatient residents were women and 34 were men, with a mean age of 84 years (SD: 8.7). In this examination, more than one-third of nursing home residents were malnourished. More than half of the residents were found to have low serum albumin or low transferrin saturation. However, no correlation between elevated CRP, low transferrin, or low serum albumin values and malnutrition could be established. Residents with low serum albumin or low transferrin levels, however, had a higher mortality rate. This study supports the urgent relevance of closer and individually personalized medical nutritional interventions, especially concerning hypoalbuminemic seniors aged 65 years and older.

Contemporary Demographic Development of the Republic of Bashkortostan: Review of the Regional Demographic Report

The article presents an overview of the collective scientific work revealing the features of the socio-demographic development of the region – the Demographic Report of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Based on official statistics and sociological research, the publication provides a comprehensive analysis of the processes of natural and migration movement of the population of the republic, examines some aspects of socio-economic development, as well as measures of regional social and demographic policy. The Demographic Report notes that the main trends of the Republic of Bashkortostan take place in the all-Russian context. These are the aging of the population, a decrease in the number of people of active working age; a decrease in the intensity of fertility, a decrease in the population of reproductive age, the dominance of reproductive attitudes towards childlessness; a change in the structure of mortality for reasons; transformation processes in the spheres of family and marriage (changes in value attitudes, marital behavior, etc.); centripetal, the nature of migration processes, high migration decline of young age groups. At the same time, the Demographic Report emphasizes that the general trends in the demographic development of Russia and Bashkortostan do not exclude that the processes of natural and migration movement of the population in the republic have their own specifics. This is due to the age, socio-territorial, ethnic structure of the population; the level of urbanization in the region; the existing system of urban and rural settlement; the peculiarities of socio-economic development of the republic and other factors. Socio-demographic indicators in Bashkortostan are also differentiated within the region, which is manifested at the sub-regional and municipal levels. The Demographic Report suggests measures in the areas of social and demographic policy. According to the authors, measures in the field of family and fertility, mortality and health, migration and employment should be closely interrelated and complement each other.