«Демографический» фактор рождаемости: оценка потенциала территории на примере Нижегородской области

Abstract

Introduction. Despite the implementation of serious measures in the framework of state family policy to stabilise the demographic situation, it remains difficult in most regions. This is due, firstly, to the new challenges the country is facing, and secondly, to the complexity of the very processes that need to be controlled. Population size, being a complex quantitative indicator of the stability of society, is determined by a number of demographic processes, among which fertility remains the main one. The number of studies attempting to identify the factors determining fertility trends is growing. All of them demonstrate the complexity and multifactorial nature of the process and the changes taking place. More and more often attention is paid to the demographic characteristics (sex-age and marriage structure) of the population as a starting point from which to begin the assessment of the territory and its reproductive potential.Nizhny Novgorod region, being a typical Russian region, has been demonstrating an unfavourable scenario of demographic situation development in recent decades. The article attempts to describe and assess the reproductive potential of the region, to identify the possibilities and limitations of fertility growth in the current conditions, based on the analysis of the ‘demographic’ factor.Materials and methods. The analysis and conclusions are based on the data of the Federal State Statistics Service on demographic processes in Russia and the region for 1990-2023 (population size, birth rate, marriage rate, divorce rate), as well as on the data of regional sociological studies on fertility and family/reproductive behaviour.Results and discussion. The results of the study provide little basis for a favourable forecast in the region. On the one hand, the sex and age structure of the population is not yet characterised by disproportion in fertile ages, except for the oldest groups. However, there is a high probability of its appearance in younger ages under current conditions. In addition, active and potential fertile groups of women are significantly smaller than older groups. The marriage structure is becoming more stable, but with a high probability of divorce, acceptability of cohabitation, and a shift of births to older groups. The studies record a persistent gap between the desired and actual number of children in different socio-demographic groups, which, from the authors' point of view, is important and requires careful research to correctly stimulate fertility.