Conservative Scenario Research Articles

Managing and optimizing urban water supply system for sustainable development: Perspectives from water-energy-carbon nexus

The Sustainable Development Goals call for a balanced and integrated manner to achieve sustainable development in dimensions of socio-economy and environment. Clarifying the nexus between water, energy, and carbon emission (WEC-Nexus) is vital for the city's sustainability. Urban water supply system (UWSS) plays a significant role in water supply and carbon mitigation. Therefore, a multi-objective optimization model was conducted for trade-offs among socio-economic and environmental benefits and applied to a proposed three-stage UWSS of Beijing. According to the sub-indicators of SDGs, we conceived five scenarios to predict the development of water scarcity and environmental impacts, carbon emissions, and economic costs. Using the system dynamics (SD) model, WEC-Nexus and economic performance under different scenarios were simulated. The results showed that the carbon emission was the highest in 2036 under an economically fast-growing scenario (3.47 × 1010 tCO2), and exceptionally-high water demand (4.68 × 109 m3) and poor pollution (8.98 × 109 mg) were produced. The most promising outcomes came from scenarios of technological advancement and ecological conservation. Energy intensity and the behavior of city dwellers led to significant disparities among emitters. We have also recommended constructive policies for Beijing to develop a low-carbon and sustainable ecosystem of UWSS. This study could provide references to measures for sustainable urban development, contributing to efficient water allocation and carbon reduction.

DECO2—An Open-Source Energy System Decarbonisation Planning Software including Negative Emissions Technologies

The deployment of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) and negative emissions technologies (NETs) are crucial to meeting the net-zero emissions target by the year 2050, as emphasised by the Glasgow Climate Pact. Over the years, several energy planning models have been developed to address the temporal aspects of carbon management. However, limited works have incorporated CCS and NETs for bottom-up energy planning at the individual plant scale, which is considered in this work. The novel formulation is implemented in an open-source energy system software that has been developed in this work for optimal decarbonisation planning. The DECarbonation Options Optimisation (DECO2) software considers multiperiod energy planning with a superstructural model and was developed in Python with an integrated user interface in Microsoft Excel. The software application is demonstrated with two scenarios that differ in terms of the availabilities of mitigation technologies. For the more conservative Scenario 1, in which CCS is only available in later years, and other NETs are assumed not to be available, all coal plants were replaced with biomass. Meanwhile, only 38% of natural gas plants are CCS retrofitted. The remaining natural gas plants are replaced with biogas. For the more aggressive Scenario 2, which includes all mitigation technologies, once again, all coal plants undergo fuel substitution. However, close to half of the natural gas plants are CCS retrofitted. The results demonstrated the potential of fuel substitutions for low-carbon alternatives in existing coal and natural gas power plants. Additionally, once NETs are mature and are available for commercial deployment, their deployment is crucial in aiding CO2 removal in minimal investment costs scenarios. However, the results indicate that the deployment of energy-producing NETs (EP-NETs), e.g., biochar and biomass with CCS, are far more beneficial in CO2 removal versus energy-consuming NETs (EC-NETs), e.g., enhanced weathering. The newly developed open-source software demonstrates the importance of determining the optimal deployment of mitigation technologies in meeting climate change targets for each period, as well as driving the achievement of net-zero emissions by mid-century.

Tuberculosis in the Russian Federation: Prognosis and Epidemiological Models in a Situation After the COVID-19 Pandemic

AimBecause of the COVID-19 pandemic, many support programs for tuberculosis (TB) patients have been discontinued and TB mass screening activities decreased worldwide, resulting in a decrease in new case detection and an increase in TB deaths (WHO, WHO global lists of high burden countries for TB, multidrug/rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB) and TB/HIV, 2021–2025, 2021). The study aimed to assess changes in epidemiological indicators of tuberculosis in the Russian Federation and to simulate these indicators in the post-COVID-19 period.Materials and MethodsThe main epidemiological indicators of tuberculosis were analyzed with the use of government statistical data for the period from 2009 to 2021. Further mathematical modeling of epidemiological indicators for the coming years was carried out, taking into account the TB screening by chest X-ray. Statistical analysis was carried out using the software environment R (v.3.5.1) for statistical computing and the commercial software Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 24.0, IBM Corp., 2016). Time series forecasting was performed using the programming language for statistical calculations R, version 4.1.2 and the bsts package, version 0.9.8.Study ResultsThe study has found that the mean regression coefficient of a single predictor differs in the model for TB incidence and mortality (0.0098 and 0.0002, respectively). Forecast of overall incidence, the incidence of children and the forecast for mortality using the basic scenario (screening 75–78%) for the period from 2022 to 2026 was characterized by a mean decrease rate of 23.1%, 15.6% and 6.0% per year, respectively. A conservative scenario (screening 47–63%) of overall incidence indicates that the incidence of children and the forecast for mortality will continue to decrease with a mean decrease rate of 23.2%, 15.6% and 6.0% per year, respectively. Comparable data were obtained from the forecast of overall incidence, the incidence of children and the forecast for mortality using the optimistic scenario (screening 82–89%) with a mean decrease rate of 22.9%, 15.4% and 6.0% per year, respectively.ConclusionsIt has been proven that the significance of screening with chest X-ray as a predictor of mortality is minimal. However, TB screening at least 60% of the population (chest X-ray in adults and immunological tests in children) have provided relationship between the TB screening rate and TB mortality rate (TB mortality rate increases with an increase in the population coverage and, conversely, decreases with a decrease in the population coverage).

Evaluation of alternative conservation strategies for the blue-billed curassow Crax alberti in the Middle Magdalena Valley, Colombia

AbstractThe blue-billed curassow Crax alberti is an endemic Colombian species categorized as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List because of the effects of hunting and habitat loss. Conservation and management actions are required to ensure its persistence in the forest remnants across its range. We conducted a population viability analysis for a population in the municipality of Yondó, Antioquia, based on data collected in the field and available information on the reproductive ecology of the species. We evaluate seven realistic conservation scenarios by comparing the effects that changes in mortality from hunting, carrying capacity and initial population size have on the survival probability of the population. Our results indicate that: (1) the studied population is not viable over a 100-year period under current conditions; (2) mortality as a result of hunting and the size of the initial population have the greatest impacts on the mean time to extinction; (3) a strategy based on eliminating hunting in the two sites with the largest forest remnants in the landscape could ensure the viability of the population over a 100-year period; and (4) other strategies (i.e. population supplementation with captive-bred individuals, reduction of deforestation in the landscape) do not guarantee the viability of the population if mortality from hunting remains constant, even at low levels. These results confirm the susceptibility of the blue-billed curassow to the threats it faces in this landscape, particularly hunting, and provide information on the conservation actions that could allow this remaining population to prevail in the long term.

Improving the Climate Resilience of Urban Road Networks: A Simulation of Microclimate and Air Quality Interventions in a Typology of Streets in Thessaloniki Historic Centre

The improvement of the urban microclimate in the densely-built central areas of Mediterranean cities should be a key objective of integrated urban and transport planning and design in accordance with the UN Sustainable Development Goals on energy, sustainable cities, and climate action. The urban climate of cities in warm regions, already burdened by the urban heat island effect, is expected to worsen further due to the global climate crisis. This study investigates the performance of common environmental street design strategies on microclimate, thermal comfort, and air quality under extreme heat conditions in the Mediterranean city of Thessaloniki, Greece. A typology of streets was selected using criteria such as road functional classification and orientation, land uses, building height/street width ratio, the sky view factor, and the continuity/discontinuity of buildings. A conservative scenario (use of cool/photocatalytic and porous materials for sidewalks, lighter pavements, additional tree planting, installations of green roofs) and a radical scenario (pedestrianization and total traffic prohibition) of environmental design interventions were simulated using the ENVI-met 5.1 software. The research findings demonstrated that the car-free interventions combined with the use of environmentally friendly materials in the public realm could significantly reduce the heat island effect and mitigate gaseous pollutants. The perceived air temperature (Physiological Equivalent Temperature—PET index) can decrease by up to 15 °C in well-shaded locations and near building corners, while nitrogen oxides can be reduced by up to 87% when considering a more radical pedestrianization scenario. The standardization of environmental interventions following a typology of urban streets could support planners and decision-makers in detecting the appropriate solutions for improving the urban microclimate.

Net-Zero Climate Emissions Districts: Potentials and Constraints for Social Housing in Milan

Net-zero climate districts are gaining wide attention at the European and international levels. Urban regeneration competitions have been launched recently to stimulate development; nevertheless, the literature does not yet provide a shared scope definition (i.e., product system). Using the process-based life cycle assessment method, the authors evaluate the climate profile of a new district in Milan (14 buildings with 36,000 m2 of gross surface area in total) aiming to become the first net-zero social housing project in Italy. The authors show in the results section how climate neutrality is achieved on the part of the real estate operator by varying the scope. The most conservative scenario (including all the emission sources considered in the analysis) indicates that the net-zero climate target is reached only by purchasing voluntary carbon credits. The authors also highlight: (i) a district composed of nearly-zero energy buildings is far from the definition of a net-zero climate emissions district; (ii) a net-zero climate emissions district may not be a positive energy district and vice-versa; and (iii) constraints linked with the lack of space in a densely populated city due to insufficient area to install renewables on site.

Long-Term Contamination of the Arabian Gulf as a Result of Hypothetical Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

Long-term consequences of radionuclide contamination of the Arabian Gulf as a result of hypothetical accidents at the Bushehr and Barakah nuclear power plants (NPPs) were studied using a chain of models including the atmospheric dispersion model RIMPUFF, the marine compartment model POSEIDON-R, and the dose model. The compartment model POSEIDON-R is complemented by a dynamic model of the biota food chain that includes both pelagic and benthic organisms. The source terms for the hypothetical releases of the selected radionuclides (134Cs, 137Cs, 106Ru, and 90Sr) in the atmosphere were defined as a fraction of respective reactor inventories available in the literature. Conservative meteorological scenarios for the calculation of the initial depositions of radionuclides were selected. Because the Gulf is shallow, a significant portion of the reactive radionuclides (134Cs, 137Cs, 106Ru) remain in the bottom sediments and continue to contaminate water and benthic organisms for a long period of time. The annual dose due to the consumption of marine products can exceed 1 mSv, whereas the annual dose due to drinking the water from desalination plants is expected to be an order less. The contribution of elements to the dose depends on the type of reactor. This is manifested in differences between the contributions of different marine organisms to the dose.

Integrated HBIM-GIS Models for Multi-Scale Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Historical Buildings

The complexity of historical urban centres progressively needs a strategic improvement in methods and the scale of knowledge concerning the vulnerability aspect of seismic risk. A geographical multi-scale point of view is increasingly preferred in the scientific literature and in Italian regulation policies, that considers systemic behaviors of damage and vulnerability assessment from an urban perspective according to the scale of the data, rather than single building damage analysis. In this sense, a geospatial data sciences approach can contribute towards generating, integrating, and making virtuous relations between urban databases and emergency-related data, in order to constitute a multi-scale 3D database supporting strategies for conservation and risk assessment scenarios. The proposed approach developed a vulnerability-oriented GIS/HBIM integration in an urban 3D geodatabase, based on multi-scale data derived from urban cartography and emergency mapping 3D data. Integrated geometric and semantic information related to historical masonry buildings (specifically the churches) and structural data about architectural elements and damage were integrated in the approach. This contribution aimed to answer the research question supporting levels of knowledge required by directives and vulnerability assessment studies, both about the generative workflow phase, the role of HBIM models in GIS environments and toward user-oriented webGIS solutions for sharing and public use fruition, exploiting the database for expert operators involved in heritage preservation.

Erosion and Sedimentation Processes in a Semi-Arid Basin of the Brazilian Savanna under Different Land Use, Climate Change, and Conservation Scenarios

Estimating the on-site and off-site impacts of soil erosion as a function of land use and climate conditions in semi-arid basins is key for soil and water conservation strategies. However, a research gap exists in the theme, requiring further investigation using local hydrological data. To accomplish it, the SDR-InVEST model was applied to the Pardo-FB basin (Brazil) using different land use, soil conservation, and climate conditions. The mean annual soil loss and the mean sediment yield in the basin varied between 7 and 36 Mg ha−1 yr−1 and 1.2 and 52.2 Gg yr−1, respectively. The basin areas where on-site and off-site erosion tolerances were exceeded ranged from 20% to 50% and from 0% to 1%, respectively, depending on the scenario. The results indicate that anthropic areas and high erosivities increase soil detachment and decrease sediment retention, generating higher erosion and sedimentation rates in the basin. The restoration of native vegetation and soil conservation practices reduced the erosion impacts, but their effectiveness was reduced in the wet climate scenario. The results contribute to the establishment of soil conservation strategies in the Pardo basin, as well as in similar basins around the world.

Evolution of eccentric high-mass X-ray binaries

Context. The formation of neutron stars is associated with powerful astrophysical transients such as supernovae. In many cases, asymmetries in the supernova explosions are thought to be responsible for the large observed velocities of neutron stars. Aims. We aim to study the complete evolutionary history of one particular eccentric high-mass X-ray binary containing a neutron star, GX 301–2, and characterize the natal kick at the time of neutron star formation. Methods. We used the publicly available stellar-evolution code MESA to evolve binaries from their initial stages until the core-collapse scenario. We incorporated a natal kick distribution based on observations to continue the evolution during the X-ray binary phase and search for candidates matching current observations of GX 301–2. Results. We find that the range of initial masses is constrained to be less than around 30 M⊙ depending on the initial mass ratio, as higher initial masses will most likely end up producing a black hole. In the completely conservative mass-transfer scenario under study, only is an interaction between the stars when the donor is still burning Hydrogen in its core, the so-called Case A of mass transfer, able to produce progenitors for GX 301–2. The natal kick study favours kicks of variable strength, which in turn increases the tilt angle between the orbital angular momentum and the spin of the neutron star. Conclusions. We conclude that only a narrow initial progenitor parameter space is able to produce a binary such as GX 301–2 when assuming a completely conservative mass transfer. Additionally, the strength of the natal kick can span a wide range of values, but it can be constrained when considering new data concerning the systemic velocity of the binary. Finally, we derive the fraction of the expected number of binaries such as GX 301–2 in the Galaxy to be ∼6 × 10−5, implying a really low chance of finding a binary similar to GX 301–2.

Integrating ecosystem services conservation into the optimization of urban planning policies in eco-fragile areas: A scenario-based case study

Alleviating the contradiction between land use change and natural ecosystem protection is an urgent problem that needs to be solved in the context of rapid urbanization. Urban expansion from 2015 to 2035 is simulated under three scenarios in this study using the Future Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model, with Hohhot, China as the research area. Then, the value of crucial ecosystem services and the trade-offs or synergies between them are calculated for past and future periods. We find that urban expansion is dominated by the occupation of cropland and grassland, leading to the losses of ecosystem services. Especially under the economic priority (EP) scenario, food production may be reduced by up to 2.98 % and soil conservation may be reduced by up to 1.04 %. The directionality of the relationships between ecosystem services will not be reversed under any scenario. Our results also emphasize that although ecosystem services have been effectively protected under the ecological conservation (EC) scenario, it may increase the trade-off intensity among them. By considering the assessment of ecosystem services and changes in their interactions when choosing the urban expansion pattern, managers can optimize planning policies to ensure sustainable urban and community management.

Identification of factors affecting public willingness to pay for heat mitigation and adaptation: Evidence from Guangzhou, China

Urban heat is a critical problem due to global warming and heat island effects. Urban heat will be further aggravated in the coming decades. It is essential to develop heat action plans for heat mitigation and adaptation, while limited studies have been carried out to support this. Focusing on the payment for heat-resilient infrastructure, this study investigated public willingness to pay (WTP), based on an empirical study in Guangzhou, China. In particular, this study analyzed heat-related impacts on daily functions, heat-related physiological and psychological impacts and associated symptoms, heat-related perception, awareness, knowledge, and familiarity, the WTP and payment amount, and the associated mechanisms. The results indicated that outdoor activities and work/study were the two most affected daily functions. The levels of the respondents' heat-related awareness, knowledge, and familiarity were significantly lower than their perceived heat severity. Moreover, the severity of psychological impacts was the same as that of physiological impacts. Heat-related psychological impacts have received less attention, in both research and practice, compared with physiological impacts, so that psychological impacts deserve more attention in future studies. With the analysis of 352 valid questionnaires, this study showed that >90% of the respondents expected the government to be involved in the payment for heat-resilient infrastructure, while about 42.3% of the respondents could support the payment. About 38.4% of the respondents directly expressed that they could pay for heat-resilient infrastructure, and 27.3% of the respondents did not care. At last, it is estimated that the average payment amount could be 19.9, 23.8, and 27.6 Yuan, among all respondents, according to the conservative, median and aspirational scenarios. The results also found that heat-related impacts on sleep/rest and heat adaptation awareness had significantly positive impacts on payment willingness. The experience of heat-related psychological illness and heat adaptation awareness had significantly positive impacts on the payment amount. Overall, this paper provides a reference for understanding heat-related payment issues and is conducive to formulating effective and proper economic support for improving heat mitigation and adaptation capacity.

Changes in Land Use and Ecosystem Service Values of Dunhuang Oasis from 1990 to 2030

Maintaining the integrity and stability of oasis ecosystems is an important topic in the field of ecological research. Assessment of ecosystem services and their changes can provide important support for the sustainable development of oases. This study took the Dunhuang oasis in the hyper-arid area as the research object and used 1990, 2010, and 2020 Landsat series satellite images to complete the land use interpretation by random forest classification. Then we estimated the ecosystem services value (ESV) by using benefit transfer method, and predicted the trend of ecosystem service value changes under three scenarios using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method and the patch generation land use simulation model (AHP-PLUS model). The results showed that the vegetation areas of the Dunhuang Oasis first decreased and then increased during 1990–2020. The decrease was largely due to the expansion of built-up land and farmland, and the increase was mainly contributed by the implementation of ecological protection policies. The path of changes in the ESV of the Dunhuang Oasis during 1990–2020 was well consistent with that of vegetation areas, with a maximum of 9068.15×106 yuan (in 1990) and a minimum of 6271.46×106 yuan (in 2010). Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that urbanization reduced ESV, and the implementation of ecological policies enhanced ESV. The ESV of the Dunhuang Oasis for the year 2030 under the ecological conservation scenario could reach 7631.07×106 yuan, which is 381.1×106 yuan higher that under the economic development scenario. The ecological conservation scenario is the optimal option to achieve sustainable development of the Dunhuang Oasis. We suggested that the government should continuously enhance the protection of forests and waterbodies, reasonably restrict production and domestic water consumption, and efficiently increase the proportion of ecological water consumption. In addition, this study improved the evaluation method of oasis ESV based on the proportion of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of grasslands with different coverage, which is important for improving the environment in arid areas.

Spatial Optimization of Conservation Practices for Sediment Load Reduction in Ungauged Agricultural Watersheds

Conservation practices (CPs) are used in agricultural watersheds to reduce soil erosion and improve water quality, leading to a sustainable management of natural resources. This is especially important as more pressure is applied on agricultural systems by a growing population and a changing climate. A challenge persists, however, in optimizing the implementation of these practices given their complex, non-linear, and location-dependent response. This study integrates watershed modeling using the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point-Source model and a GIS-based field scale localization and characterization of CPs. The investigated practices are associated with the implementation of riparian buffers, sediment basins, crop rotations, and the conservation reserve program. A total of 33 conservation scenarios were developed to quantify their impact on sediment erosion reduction. This approach was applied in an ungauged watershed as part of the Mississippi River Basin initiative aiming at reducing one of the largest aquatic dead zones in the globe. Simulation results indicate that the targeted approach has a significant impact on the overall watershed-scale sediment load reduction. Among the different evaluated practices, riparian buffers were the most efficient in sediment reduction. Moreover, the study provides a blueprint for similar investigations aiming at building decision-support systems and optimizing the placement of CPs in agricultural watersheds.

Dynamical classic limit: Dissipative vs conservative systems.

We analyze the nonlinear dynamics of a quartic semiclassical system able to describe the interaction of matter with a field. We do it in both dissipative and conservative scenarios. In particular, we study the classical limit of both frameworks and compare the associated features. In the two environments, we heavily use a system's invariant, related to the Uncertainty Principle, that helps to determine how the dynamics tends to the pertinent classical limit. We exhibit the convergence to the classical limit and also verify that the Uncertainty Principle is complied with during the entire process, even in the presence of dissipation.

Development particulars and trends of foreign trade activities of the Russian Federation

The project development, which is especially noticeable at the regional economic level, has got wide application for the purpose of sustainable development of the territories. The regional economics and global economy are interdependent categories that can be confirmed by the example of imposing the foreign trade sanctions, which are currently expanding on an almost weekly basis. Therefore, we are of the opinion that it would be reasonable to consider the situation in the foreign trade of the Russian Federation, because it is just this issue that creates conditions for development of the territories and, undoubtedly, predetermines the project management efficiency to a greater extent. This research paper discloses the particular features and trends of development of the Russian Federation foreign trade under the present conditions. Three types of scenarios, according to which it is possible to provide for development of trade relations of the Russian Federation, are determined. The paper provides the analysis of the possibilities of the Russian Federation trade development under the conservative scenario (basically, trading of hydrocarbons) and stresses on the special importance of performing the transition to the innovation and forced scenarios (transition to trading of the innovation goods) while performing the international trade activity. On the basis of the revealed development scenarios there are created groups of trends, within the frameworks of which, in our view, the foreign trade of the Russian Federation has to be developed.

Determinante deviznih rezervi i optimalni nivo deviznih rezervi u Bosni i Hercegovini

The research answered the question of what affects BH foreign exchange reserves and what is the lower limit of the optimal level of foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH). We defined excess foreign exchange reserves as the difference between the balance of foreign exchange reserves and the lower limit of the optimal level of foreign exchange reserves. In most of the analyzed period, foreign exchange reserves are significantly above the lower limit of the optimal foreign exchange reserves. In 2022, the banking sector had the largest excess of foreign exchange reserves in the scenario of a floating exchange rate, without considering the degree of euroization. The excess is the lowest in the fixed exchange rate regime, in which, through the money supply, we allowed a high impact of euroization on optimal foreign exchange reserves. Even under this most conservative scenario, the excess foreign exchange reserves amount to 1.9 billion KM or about 4% of nominal GDP in 2022. Changes in BH monetary regime, enabling the CBBH to lend to residents and a possible transition to a floating exchange rate, are possible while maintaining a satisfactory level of foreign currency liquidity of the CBBH.

A Deep Learning Approach Visual Recognition of Bird Species in Noisy Environments

In this paper, we propose a deep learning approach for visual recognition of bird species in noisy environments. Bird species recognition has been a challenging task due to the high variation in bird appearances and the presence of noise and clutter in natural environments. Our approach utilizes a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to learn discriminative features from bird images and classify them into different species. We also incorporate data augmentation techniques to increase the diversity of the training data and improve the robustness of the model. To address the issue of noisy environments, we introduce a novel noise-robust loss function that penalizes the model for incorrect predictions caused by noise. We evaluate our approach on a dataset of bird images collected from diverse environments and compare it with state-of-the-art methods. Our results demonstrate that our approach achieves superior performance in both clean and noisy environments, highlighting the effectiveness of our noise-robust loss function. Our approach has the potential to be applied in real-world scenarios for bird species recognition and conservation.

Potential Distribution of Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico according to Its Optimal Thermal Range for Seed Germination under Different Climate Change Scenarios.

Cedrela odorata is a native tree of economic importance, as its wood is highly demanded in the international market. In this work, the current and future distributions of C. odorata in Mexico under climate change scenarios were analyzed according to their optimal temperature ranges for seed germination. For the present distribution, 256 localities of the species' presence were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database and modelled with MaxEnt. For the potential distribution, the National Center for Atmospheric Research model (CCSM4) was used under conservative and drastic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 Watts/m2, respectively) for the intermediate future (2050) and far future (2070). Potential distribution models were built from occurrence data within the optimum germination temperature range of the species. The potential distribution expanded by 5 and 7.8% in the intermediate and far future, respectively, compared with the current distribution. With the increase in temperature, adequate environmental conditions for the species distribution should be met in the central Mexican state of Guanajuato. The states of Chihuahua, Mexico, Morelos, Guerrero, and Durango presented a negative trend in potential distribution. Additionally, in the far future, the state of Chihuahua it is likely to not have adequate conditions for the presence of the species. For the prediction of the models, the precipitation variable during the driest month presented the greatest contribution. When the humidity is not limiting, the thermal climatic variables are the most important ones. Models based on its thermal niche for seed germination allowed for the identification of areas where temperature will positively affect seed germination, which will help maximize the establishment of plant populations and adaptation to different climate change scenarios.

Skenario Konservasi Tanah pada Perkebunan Sawit sebagai Upaya Mitigasi Limpasan Permukaan pada DAS Arui, Kabupaten Manokwari, Papua Barat

Indonesia, a country with high forest and land potential for economic growth, still relies on utilizing these two potentials. This study aims to create a conservation scenario in palm oil plantations that are expected to be able to mitigate surface runoff. The data collected include hydrology, land, area of oil palm plantations, and topography, which were analyzed based on threats and potential conservation that can be applied. Conservation scenarios that need to be carried out are: deadlock alley ditch (dad), mixed tree and palm oil plantations, planting oil palm without land cultivation, and immersing mulch. The simulation results of the dad design, if it rains heavily, all of the rainwater in the palm oil fields can be accommodated without a runoff. Mixed tree and oil palm plants are expected to maintain the availability of nutrients, increase the income of oil palm smallholders, and have a good impact on soil fertility. Planting oil palm without land cultivation is expected to reduce surface runoff, increase water infiltration into the soil, and expand water catchment areas. The immersion of palm mulch is expected to help retain soil moisture, add nutrients, enhance the soil's ability to absorb water, and prevent erosion. Conservation scenarios in the long term, such as dad, mixed tree and oil palm plantations, oil plantations without land cultivation, and mulch immersion, are expected to be able to mitigate flooding.
 
 Keywords: Arui watershed, conservation scenario, mitigation, oil palm, surface runoff