Conservative Scenario Research Articles

Integration of solar energy in Small-scale Industries: Application to microbreweries

The integration of solar energy to achieve decarbonization in the industry is still incipient. The few reported cases of solar thermal and photovoltaic integration in industrial brewing processes belong to medium-sized and large breweries. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine if solar energy integration can also be profitable for small industries under the current market conditions. A monitoring campaign was conducted to characterize the consumption profile of a microbrewery located in southern Spain, which revealed a significant difference in specific energy consumption between micro- and large breweries. In addition, performance curves of small-scale components for cold supply were adjusted under real operation conditions. Consequently, a simulation tool was created in TRNSYS to calculate energy consumption. Its results were compared with measurement data and electricity consumption bills. Furthermore, a techno-economic analysis carried out in Spain revealed that under the current market conditions a photovoltaic system would always be profitable compared to buying all energy from the grid. The cost of energy for cooling and heating supply can be reduced up to 39.9% for the best conditions of solar radiation and market prices. However, in a more moderate scenario the reduction in the cost of energy can vary between 3.63% and 11.23%. In addition, payback periods range from 4.3 to 6.6 years in the favorable scenario and from 14 to 24.9 years in the conservative scenario; depending mainly on the level of solar radiation, conventional energy prices, and the size of the photovoltaic system.

An Economic Analysis of Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Covered Stent Shunt for Variceal Bleeding and Refractory Ascites in a Spanish Setting.

The primary aim is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt (TIPSS) in two indications from a Spanish perspective. Firstly, as pre-emptive treatment for patients with acute variceal bleeding (indication1) compared with endoscopic band ligation plus drug therapy. Secondly, to treat refractory ascites (indication2) compared with large volume paracentesis. A two-state (alive and dead) Markov model was developed to capture the costs and health impact for the two indications over a 2-year time horizon with monthly cycles. In the alive state, patients could experience adverse event(s), associated with costs and disutility, such as recurrent variceal bleeding, ascites, and hepatic encephalopathy. Discount rates of 3% for utilities and costs and a cost-effectiveness threshold of €25,000 per QALY were applied. In the base case analysis, TIPSS was estimated to be cost-effective as a pre-emptive treatment for indication1 (incremental cost and QALYs of - €230 and 0.211, respectively). TIPSS also remained cost-effective (€16,819/QALY) in a conservative scenario analysis, conducted with an alternate source for clinical parameters. The key drivers of the outcomes were survival for the comparator arm, mean band ligation outpatient procedures, and TIPSS treatment costs. TIPSS was estimated to dominate the comparator for indication2 (incremental cost and QALYs of - €25,687 and 0.531, respectively). The key drivers of the outcomes were monthly paracentesis sessions and cost per inpatient stay for those undergoing paracentesis. TIPSS is likely to be a cost-effective and a cost-saving treatment in patients with cirrhosis in indications 1 and 2, compared with standard treatments. The analyses estimate clinical benefits along with reduced healthcare costs from avoided downstream resource consumption.

Dietary exposure to food azo-colours in a sample of pre-school children from Southern Brazil

The dietary exposure of six food azo-colours was assessed in a sample of pre-schoolers from Guaratuba-Paraná, Brazil. Consumption data of 323 children aged 2 to 5 years was collected through 3-day food records. Dietary exposure, is expressed by milligrams of food colour by kilogram of body weight per day, as compared to the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI). Three exposure scenarios were developed to account for uncertainties around consumption estimates. Intakes of Amaranth (INS 123) described in means, 50th and 95th percentiles exceeded ADI levels in the two most conservative scenarios, with the highest percentiles exceeding about four times the ADI. High intakes of Sunset Yellow FCF (INS 110) were also observed, of up to 85% of the ADI in the worst-case scenario. Findings suggest high exposure levels to azo-dyes in the survey population, with children likely exceeding the ADI for Amaranth (INS 123) and concerns for Sunset Yellow FCF (INS 110). Major food contributors were beverages (juice powders and soft drinks), dairy and sweets. Further studies on dietary exposure assessment are needed at the national level. The authors highlight the need of controlling the use of such additives through national policies that are aligned with the consumption patterns observed in the country.

Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China

The arid region of northwest China is an extremely fragile area of natural ecology. With population growth and continuous expansion of urban scale, the ecosystem in the arid region is facing greater pressure. Scientific assessment and prediction of the value of ecosystem services in arid areas are necessary and of great significance for the sustainable development of regional ecological environments. In this paper, a parametric optimal geographic model is used to analyze the driving factors of ESV spatial dispersion in Jiuquan City as an example. The PLUS model is also used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of ESV in 2035 under the scenarios of natural development, urban development, water constraints and ecological conservation, based on the historical change pattern of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV). The results showed that from 1980 to 2020, the plowland, water and construction land area in Jiuquan City showed a significant increasing trend, while other land use types showed a decreasing trend. ESV has increased from CNY 139.394 billion to CNY 142.642 billion. The expansion of plowland and water area was the main reason for the increase in ESV. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation are the main driving factors of spatial differentiation of ESV in Jiuquan City. The interaction of natural and human factors enhances the explanatory power of each factor to the spatial differentiation of ESV. In 2035, the ESV in four development scenarios in Jiuquan City showed an upward trend, and the ESV of the ecological protection scenario was the highest, which was the best mode to realize a sustainable development in Jiuquan City in the future. This study can provide scientific basis and decision-making basis for Jiuquan City to formulate sustainable development strategy.

Land Use Simulation and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The land use and land cover pattern of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is an important basis for the structure and function of the QTP ecological barrier. It is of great significance to simulate the land use pattern and landscape ecological risk of the QTP under future scenarios for the construction of the QTP barrier area and to promote the sustainable use of land resources. The QTP was selected as the study area. Based on the spatial pattern of land use in 2010 and 2020, the PLUS model was used to predict the land use patterns of the QTP in 2030 under the two scenarios of natural development and ecological conservation. The landscape ecological risk index was constructed to evaluate the past, present, and future landscape ecological risk of the QTP. The natural break point method was used to divide the landscape ecological risk index into five levels: lower ecological risk, low ecological risk, medium ecological risk, high ecological risk, and higher ecological risk. The results showed that: (1) Under the natural development scenario, the area of cropland, forestland, grassland, and unused land decreased continuously, while the areas of water and built-up land increased gradually. Under the ecological conservation scenario, the areas of forestland and grassland increased by 130 km2 and 2293 km2, respectively, compared with the natural development scenario. (2) Under the natural development scenario, the overall ecological risk of the QTP increased from 2010 to 2030, which showed that the proportions of lower ecological risk area decreased, while the proportion of medium and high ecological risk area increased. Under the ecological conservation scenario, compared with the natural development scenario, the area of lower, low, and high ecological risk increased by 4044 km2, 2484 km2, and 6401 km2, respectively, while the areas of medium and higher ecological risk decreased by 6333 km2 and 6597 km2, respectively.

Carbon stock and uptake in the high-elevation tropical montane forests of the threatened Atlantic Forest hotspot: Ecosystem function and effects of elevation variation

Tropical montane forests (TMF) of the threatened Atlantic Forest hotspot play an important role in providing essential ecosystem services associated with hydrological regime and biodiversity conservation. However, important ecological patterns such as those related to the woody carbon biogeochemical cycle are not yet known for these forests, especially those located at high elevations (> 1500 m. a.s.l.). Herein, we used a dataset of 60 plots (2.4 ha) of old-growth TMF sampled along a high-elevation gradient (1500–2100 m a.s.l.) and monitored in two inventories (2011 and 2016) to better understand the patterns of carbon stock and uptake of these high-elevation forests and the related environmental (soil) and elevation controls. We found differences in the carbon stock along different elevation levels (120.36–170.4C.ton.ha−1) and a carbon accumulation trend over the period along the entire gradient. Thus, forest carbon gain (3.82–5.14 ton.ha.year−1) was greater than the carbon loss (2.1–3.4 ton.ha.year−1) and resulted in a positive productivity net. In other words, the TMF acted as a carbon sink, removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in woody tissues. Soil variables also exert significant influences on carbon stock and uptake (significative effects of phosphorus on carbon stock and of cation exchange capacity on carbon loss), driving such patterns in isolation or in interaction with elevation. Considering the high conservation degree of the TMF monitored, our results may be indicative of a similar trend in other similar forests, but which have gone through disturbances in the more recent past. These TMF fragments have a wide occurrence in the Atlantic Forest hotspot and may also be acting or will soon act as carbon sinks in improved conservation scenarios. Thus, these forests can play an essential role in conserving ecosystem services in the region and in mitigating climate changes.

Assessment and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk from Land Use Change in Xinjiang, China

Land use change has significant impacts on the regional and global environment; thus, in-depth research on the associated ecological risks is necessary for promoting ecological restoration and sustainable development. Xinjiang, China, is characterized by a fragile ecological environment, and this study aimed to predict the land use change in the region in 2030 under different scenarios, including natural development, ecological conservation, and urban development, by using the PLUS model based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. Based on the landscape structure of regional ecosystems, we developed a comprehensive ecological risk assessment framework by utilizing a combination of landscape disturbance index, vulnerability index, and loss index. This framework allowed us to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns and variations of landscape ecological risks under different scenarios in 2030. The study results indicate the following: (1) During the period from 2000 to 2020, the primary landscape type in Xinjiang was unused land. However, significant changes were observed in the area of cultivated land, mainly due to the conversion of grassland and construction land. The expansion of construction land during the urbanization process resulted in a decline in ecological landscapes, such as grassland, thereby weakening the ecosystem’s stability. (2) Under different simulation scenarios, the urban development scenario primarily led to the conversion of unused land into construction land, which is beneficial for economic development. On the other hand, the ecological conservation scenario resulted in a modest increase in construction land and a transformation of unused land into forest and grassland, which aligns with the principles of sustainable development. (3) Different scenarios in 2030 result in varying degrees of changes in each landscape type in Xinjiang, with the spatial distribution characteristics of landscape ecological risks remaining similar to those observed in 2020. Notably, under the urban development scenario, the area of lowest and medium risk areas decreases significantly while the area of higher and highest risk areas increases substantially. Conversely, under the ecological conservation scenario, the area of the lowest risk areas experiences a more significant increase. (4) Overall, the spatial differences in the ecological risk of Xinjiang’s landscape are significant, with HH and LL clustering types predominating and presenting a polarization pattern. The distribution pattern is low in the north and high in the central and southern parts of the study area.

Government is expected to lead the payment of heat-resilient infrastructure

Urban heat is severe in numerous cities, but the urgency of heat action and support for the development of heat-resilient infrastructure is unclear. To address these research gaps, this study investigated the perceived urgency of developing heat-resilient infrastructure and associated payment issues in eight megacities, in China using a questionnaire survey of 3758 respondents in August 2020. Overall, the respondents thought it was moderately urgent to take actions to address heat-related challenges. The development of mitigation and adaptation infrastructure is urgent. About 86.4% of the 3758 respondents expected the government to be involved in paying for heat-resilient infrastructure, but 41.2% supported cost-sharing among the government, developers, and owners. There were 1299 respondents willing to pay, resulting in an average annual payment of 44.06 RMB in a conservative scenario. This study is important for decision-makers to formulate plans on heat-resilient infrastructure and to release financial strategies for collecting investments and funds.

Vegetation Greening Enhanced the Regional Terrestrial Carbon Uptake in the Dongting Lake Basin of China

Terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake is essential to achieving a regional carbon neutrality strategy, particularly in subtropical humid areas with dense vegetation. Due to the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the carbon uptake of ecosystems, it is difficult to quantify the influence and contribution of different factors. With the aid of multisource remote sensing data, the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon uptake and the impact of vegetation change were explored in the Dongting Lake Basin from 2001 to 2020. Based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model, we simulated the land use of the basin under different development scenarios in 2030. Our results showed that the basin has demonstrated a significant greening trend in the last 20 years, with a multiyear average NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) of 0.60 and an increasing trend (y = 0.0048x − 9.069, R2 = 0.89, p < 0.01). In this context, the multiyear mean of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 314.95 g C·m−2·a−1 and also showed a significant increasing trend (y = 1.8915x + 295.09, R2 = 0.23, p < 0.05). Moreover, though the future carbon uptake might decrease because of the enhanced anthropogenic activities, the ecological conservation scenario might mitigate the reduction by 0.05 × 107 t. In conclusion, the greening trend enhanced the ecosystem carbon uptake in the Dongting lake basin. Considering the representativeness of the Dongting Lake Basin, the results of our study would provide useful clues for understanding the trend and pattern of terrestrial carbon uptake and for guiding the carbon neutrality strategy in the subtropical humid area.

Bioenergy and Employment. A Regional Economic Impact Evaluation

Estimating green energy’s impact on regional economies of developing countries is challenging, owing both to the lack of disaggregated data of non-conventional energy sources at the subnational level and a method to address its participation in the energy matrix. We develop a methodology to solve both problems and apply it to the case of Santa Fe province, Argentina, an important producer of biofuels (biodiesel from soybean and ethanol from maize). To disaggregate the participation of biofuel sectors we combine aggregated sector information with subsector surveys. Once established the share of biofuels in the economy and their potential to create jobs, it is possible to generate statistics on the input-output relationships. With the latter, we estimate a hybrid input-output model and calculate the effects of shocks on production and employment stemming from the full utilization of existing idle capacity, as well as from new investments in the sector. The instrument allows us to several policy evaluations, for instance, of acceleration of the energy matrix transition to renewables through regulations, to study the effect of changes in relative prices of energy, determine the effect on potential employment creation of subsidies to promote the activity, etc. The sector we analyze empirically had an initial value added of 745 million dollars and employs near to 1200 persons, and an important idle capacity plus delayed projects because of external shocks. In a conservative scenario of full capacity utilization plus ongoing investments, production more than doubles, and employment can grow 414 percent. On the other hand, a 50 percent additional increase in new capacity implies a total value-added increase of 421 million dollars and a 378 percent increase in jobs. Even when the output effect is lower than in the former scenario, the employment effect is proportionally much larger since the latter scenario includes transient jobs in the construction phase.

Perceptions of equity in conservation scenarios: Half Earth and Sharing the Planet

The Half Earth (HE) and Sharing the Planet (SP) scenario narratives are two distinctly different scenarios on how to restore and conserve biodiversity while accounting for the need for agricultural production. Yet, the equity implications of both scenarios are not clear. We conducted a questionnaire to better understand what experts with various backgrounds perceive as the main equity implications of these scenarios. We find that, overall, distributive, recognitional, and procedural equity barriers are perceived as higher in the HE scenario, as is the possibility of reaching equity. Especially people depending on local biodiversity to sustain their livelihoods are perceived to face challenges due to inequities. Although equity risks are perceived to be lower in the SP scenario, the measures needed to achieve this scenario are seen as hard to implement, since existing economic and political power structures need to change. Some respondents perceive the SP scenario as anthropocentric, and therefore not equitable to non-humans. The equity perceptions are linked to the respondents’ attitudes to nature, their professional focus, and their view on equity in nature conservation and agriculture discussions and agreements today. These results indicate that it is important to recognise the different equity implications of the different scenarios and the challenge to provide equity implications for such scenarios. Explicitly recognising different equity understandings in scenario development and science-policy interfaces could lead to more inclusive policies.

Reduction in water consumption in premise plumbing systems: Impacts on lead concentration under different water qualities

Water conservation measures are increasing in response to regulatory requirements addressing the need for lower environmental footprint and in response to water shortages. In households with lead service lines (LSLs), lowering consumption can adversely impact lead release as it will increase stagnation. Using a lead dissolution model and data from extensive pilot studies on excavated LSLs, the impact of adaptation to different water conservation strategies on dissolved lead contamination at the kitchen tap is assessed under three water qualities and three LSL lengths (3, 14 and 30 m) using hydraulic and water quality modelling. Consumers' behavioural variability is also assessed based on integration of EPANET and results of the stochastic water demand model SIMDEUM. Demand reduction increased the dissolved lead concentrations (Pbdiss) at the end of the LSL with mean values ranging from 28.4 to 63.3 μg/L (without corrosion control) and from 4.6 to 9.9 μg/L with corrosion control (addition of orthophosphate and pH adjustment). Adding orthophosphate (1 mg P/L) to the water reduces the mean Pbdiss values at the kitchen tap from 7.1 μg/L to 1.2 μg/L for a high water demand scenario and from 31.2 to 4.9 μg/L for a low water demand scenario. Finally, the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model is used to predict the potential blood lead levels (BLLs) for children aged 0–84 months. Results showed that the orthophosphate addition of only 1 mg P/L can significantly decrease the proportion of children with a BLL >5 μg/dL, from 82 % to 17 %, under the most extreme water conservation scenario studied, using the 90th percentile of Pbdiss concentrations during usage at kitchen tap. Wide variations of Pbdiss concentrations at the kitchen tap were calculated at times of use over a week (up to 155 μg/L in lower demand scenarios, without corrosion control) showing evident limitations of single random daytime sampling.

Addressing the impact of canine distemper spreading on an isolated tiger population in northeast Asia.

The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) population living along the China-Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size (including 38 individuals) and canine distemper virus (CDV). We use a population viability analysis metamodel, which consists of a traditional individual-based demographic model linked to an epidemiological model, to assess options for controlling the impact of negative factors through domestic dog management in protected areas, increasing connectivity to the neighboring large population (including more than 400 individuals), and habitat expansion. Without intervention, under inbreeding depression of 3.14, 6.29, and 12.26 lethal equivalents, our metamodel predicted the extinction within 100 years is 64.4%, 90.6%, and 99.8%, respectively. In addition, the simulation results showed that dog management or habitat expansion independently will not ensure tiger population viability for the next 100 years, and connectivity to the neighboring population would only keep the population size from rapidly declining. However, when the above three conservation scenarios are combined, even at the highest level of 12.26 lethal equivalents inbreeding depression, population size will not decline and the probability of extinction will be <5.8%. Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur tiger necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort. Our key management recommendations for this population underline the importance of reducing CDV threats and expanding tiger occupancy to its former range in China, but re-establishing habitat connectivity to the neighboring population is an important long-term objective.

Construction of ecological security patterns based on multi-scenario simulations in arid and semi-arid areas in Northwest China

ABSTRACT Ecological security patterns (ESPs) have several implications for regional development planning and strategies. However, there have been few studies on potential ESP changes in future scenarios. Considering the various climatic and physical geographical conditions, more studies on the construction of ESPs are needed, particularly in high-altitude, arid, and semi-arid regions. This study fills a gap in the body of literature by simulating future land-use changes under multi-scenario and constructing historical and future ESPs for the Kuqa-Shaya-Xinhe region. This study integrated ecological connectivity and study area data, identified ecological sources, established ecological resistance surfaces, and identified ecological corridors and nodes by combining least-cost paths and circuit theory. Three development scenarios (inertial development scenario, ecological conservation scenario, and coordinated development scenario) were designed. The results showed that an integrated framework is ideal for investigating the spatial and temporal impacts of multi-scenario land-use change on ESPs. Furthermore, under the inertial development scenario, the area of ecological sources decreased significantly and the increased ecological corridor, pinch, and barrier points suggested that a large burden of ecological engineering construction is expected. By contrast, the coordinated development scenario should be preferred in the short and medium term as it can ensure economic growth and infrastructure construction while minimizing the burden of future ecological engineering construction. Our results provide a deeper understanding of the response of ESPs to land-use change and can provide references for the protection and restoration of arid and semi-arid areas.

Economic Evaluation for Palbociclib Plus Fulvestrant vs Ribociclib Plus Fulvestrant and Abemaciclib Plus Fulvestrant in Endocrine-Resistant Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer in Italy.

To date, no study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of palbociclib (PAL) plus fulvestrant (FUL) vs ribociclib (RIB) plus FUL and abemaciclib (ABM) plus FUL in Italy. Cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the three cyclin-dependent 4/6 kinase inhibitors in combination with endocrine therapies for the management of postmenopausal women with HR+, HER2- advanced or metastatic breast cancer in Italy was developed. To assess the cost-effectiveness of PAL plus FUL vs RIB plus FUL and ABM plus FUL, a cost-minimization has been carried out with a conservative scenario considering three CDK4/6 inhibitors with equal effectiveness in terms of overall survival (OS) (MAIC, Rugo et al 2021). Adverse events (AEs) associated with all therapies were obtained from clinical trials. Ad-hoc analysis was performed to estimate the cost-effectiveness considering the quality-of-life (QoL) data (Lloyd et al 2006). Cost-minimization inputs were drugs, visits and exams, AE monitoring and best supportive care (BSC) before the progression state, active and BSC in the progression and terminal phase of the last two weeks of life. Given the comparability of PAL, RIB and ABM in terms of efficacy, this analysis demonstrated slight economic savings over a lifetime for PAL. Results showed saving per patient of €305 (lifetime) when PAL is compared with RIB; for PAL vs ABM a saving of €243 (lifetime) in a conservative scenario. Results of a budget impact analysis showed a potential savings of €319,563 for PAL vs RIB and €297,544 for PAL vs ABM. When QoL data were considered, results may favor PAL due to the lower impact of AE with savings and improvement in the QoL related to fewer AE. From the Italian perspective, a cost-saving profile associated with the use of PAL+FUL for the management of advanced/metastatic HR+/HER2- breast cancer compared to RIB+FUL and ABM+FUL emerged.

Dictionary Learning: A Novel Approach to Detecting Binary Black Holes in the Presence of Galactic Noise with LISA.

The noise produced by the inspiral of millions of white dwarf binaries in the MilkyWay may pose a threat to one of the main goals of the space-based LISA mission: the detection of massive black hole binary mergers. We present a novel study for reconstruction of merger waveforms in the presence of Galactic confusion noise using dictionary learning. We discuss the limitations of untangling signals from binaries with total mass from 10^{2} M_{⊙} to 10^{4} M_{⊙}. Our method proves extremely successful for binaries with total mass greater than ∼3×10^{3} M_{⊙} up to redshift 3 in conservative scenarios, and up to redshift 7.5 in optimistic scenarios. In addition, consistently good waveform reconstruction of merger events is found if the signal-to-noise ratio is approximately 5 or greater.

Floating photovoltaics systems on water irrigation ponds: Technical potential and multi-benefits analysis

Floating photovoltaic systems (FPV) can be a more sustainable alternative for the energy transition than ground-mounted photovoltaic systems, as they avoid occupying useable land and the power generation is more distributed. This paper presents the first study that calculates the FPV technical potential at the province/municipality level, focusing on water irrigation ponds, which it is a novelty in the literature that usually focuses on large water infrastructures in a national approach. In the province of Jaén (Spain), more than 3000 ponds dedicated to agricultural irrigation have been identified and their surface area and location was obtained. The results, calculated for each pond, reveal that, in a conservative scenario, in which only 25% of their surface area is covered, a minimum of 490 MWp can be installed, which can provide 251% of the province agricultural electricity consumption and 27% of the total electricity needs. This analysis has also been performed at the municipal level, where all possible FPV plants have been aggregated and compared with consumption that would be covered at this scale. Furthermore, this technology brings additional benefits, as it avoids the occupation of 12 km2 of useable land, 8.8·106 m3/year of water evaporated, while creating more than 7000 jobs.

Estuarine response to storm surge and sea-level rise associated with channel deepening: a flood vulnerability assessment of southwest Louisiana, USA

This study investigates the sensitivity of the Calcasieu Lake estuarine region to channel deepening in southwest Louisiana in the USA. We test the hypothesis that the depth increase in a navigational channel in an estuarine region results in the amplification of the inland penetration of storm surge, thereby increasing the flood vulnerability of the region. We run numerical experiments using the Delft3D modeling suite (validated with observational data) with different historic channel depth scenarios. Model results show that channel deepening facilitates increased water movement into the lake–estuary system during a storm surge event. The inland peak water level increases by 37% in the presence of the deepest channel. Moreover, the peak volumetric flow rate increases by 291.6% along the navigational channel. Furthermore, the tidal prism and the volume of surge prism passing through the channel inlet increase by 487% and 153.3%, respectively. In our study, the presence of the deepest channel results in extra 56.72 km2 of flooded area (approximately 12% increase) which is an indication that channel deepening over the years has rendered the region more vulnerable to hurricane-induced flooding. The study also analyzes the impact of channel deepening on storm surge in estuaries under different future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Simulations suggest that even the most conservative scenario of SLR will cause an approximately 51% increase in flooded area in the presence of the deepest ship channel, thereby suggesting that rising sea level will cause increased surge penetration and increased flood risk.

A review of tiger conservation studies using nonlinear trajectory: A telemetry data approach

Abstract Radio telemetry is being used in India to capture the location and movements of radio-collared wild animals. Radio telemetry data analysis has changed the scenario for wildlife conservation. It has provided many models and solutions for natural habitat utilization, genetic diversity, and even implementing green corridors for the species. Insights drawn from the data collected through radio telemetry from radio-collared animals have provided impactful information to understand the wild animal’s ecology. In the past few years, India has remarkably improved the population of tigers using telemetry studies and other conservation methods. In this study, a review of the telemetry studies conducted for tigers in India in the past decade has been presented. This study summarizes the telemetry studies of tigers in India and discusses how telemetry has enhanced the knowledge of ecologists and scientists to understand tiger ecology. This study also discusses the challenges and issues of conducting telemetry studies on tigers in India. Finally, the authors address the gaps in understanding the tiger’s ecology based on these studies and outline how radio telemetry can address these issues to better understand and conserve tigers.

Late Cenozoic cooling restructured global marine plankton communities.

The geographic ranges of marine organisms, including planktonic foraminifera1, diatoms, dinoflagellates2, copepods3 and fish4, are shifting polewards owing to anthropogenic climate change5. However, the extent to which species will move and whether these poleward range shifts represent precursor signals that lead to extinction is unclear6. Understanding the development of marine biodiversity patterns over geological time and the factors that influence them are key to contextualizing these current trends. The fossil record of the macroperforate planktonic foraminifera provides a rich and phylogenetically resolved dataset that provides unique opportunities for understanding marine biogeography dynamics and how species distributions have responded to ancient climate changes. Here we apply a bipartite network approach to quantify group diversity, latitudinal specialization and latitudinal equitability for planktonic foraminifera over the past eight million years using Triton, a recently developed high-resolution global dataset of planktonic foraminiferal occurrences7. The results depict a global, clade-wide shift towards the Equator in ecological and morphological community equitability over the past eight million years in response to temperature changes during the late Cenozoic bipolar ice sheet formation. Collectively, the Triton data indicate the presence of a latitudinal equitability gradient among planktonic foraminiferal functional groups which is coupled to the latitudinal biodiversity gradient only through the geologically recent past (the past two million years). Before this time, latitudinal equitability gradients indicate that higher latitudes promoted community equitability across ecological and morphological groups. Observed range shifts among marine planktonic microorganisms1,2,8 in the recent and geological past suggest substantial poleward expansion of marine communities even under the most conservative future global warming scenarios.