European Conflict Research Articles

Borders, states, and armed conflicts in Europe and Northeast Asia since 1945: The moral hazard of great-power encroachments

This article discusses the significance of international borders in Europe and Northeast Asia during the Cold War (1945–1989) and after. Using the concept of ‘moral hazard’, the article examines what happens when great powers frequently violate the borders of neighboring countries without suffering adverse repercussions. Norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity are viable only if large countries are willing to uphold them most of the time. The Soviet Union used or threatened to use military force against East European countries on numerous occasions (1953, 1956, 1968, and 1980–1981) with impunity. The Russian Federation adopted a broadly similar policy toward neighboring countries that had been republics of the Soviet Union until 1991. Russian forces in Georgia, Moldova, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Ukraine served as instruments of Russian hegemony in those countries. Until 2014, Western governments made little or no effort to deter or counter Russian military encroachments in neighboring republics. By the principle of moral hazard, leaders in the Kremlin came to believe that they could act with a free hand in the former USSR.

Global shocks and local connectedness: evidence from dynamic tail risk interdependences among Chinese regional carbon markets

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes tail risk interdependence among four regional carbon markets in China to investigate the effect of exogenous shocks on local connectedness. We utilize a time-varying copulas approach and find that: (i) the Shenzhen carbon market has the highest level of tail risk due to the lower liquidity and weaker resilience. (ii) Carbon markets where prices are more responsive to information have higher levels of tail risk dependence. (iii) Compared to the China – US trade dispute and the armed conflict in Europe, the shocks from the extreme weather and the COVID-19 outbreak can prominently strengthen tail risk.

The Australian Economy in 2023–24: Navigating a Narrow Path

AbstractThe economy grew at a moderate pace in 2022–23 as Australians adjusted to rising costs of living. The aggressive tightening of monetary policy has eased inflationary pressure, but inflation remains high. Strong labour market performance has been the brightest note in the current Australian macroeconomic landscape, although labour productivity growth was disappointing. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in Europe with its ensuing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the recent conflict in the Middle East increased global uncertainty and volatility in food and energy prices. This, together with the slowdown in China, added further downside risks to the outlook for the economy in 2023–24.

Field Artillery in the defensive war of Ukraine 2022-2023Part I. Combat potential, tasks and tactics

On 24 February 2022, the Russian Federation carried out an unlawful armed aggression against Ukraine, starting the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. In the course of hostilities, both sides deployed missile troops and artillery, which became essential means of fire support for ground troops due to restrictions in the use of air force and army aviaton. The aim of the article is to present the potential, tasks and tactics of the field artillery used in the Ukrainian war in the years 2022-2023. The subject of research is missile troops and artillery of the combatants. Primarily their organisation, armament, tasks and tactical assumptions. The author formulated the following questions: What was the combat potential of the warring parties’ artillery at the beginning and during the conflict? What tasks are set for the artillery in the ongoing war? What tactics are used by the artillery of the warring parties in response to changing conditions during the war? The author, as a long-term theoretician and practitioner of field artillery, based the analyses made largely on his own observations and conclusions, which he formulated during many years of scientific research and participation in military exercises involving artillery, interviews with Ukrainian officers, as well as the latest studies and documents issued by opinion-forming research centres.This study is the first part of the work which presents the combat potential, tasks and tactics of the artillery of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. In the second part the use of the artillery in individual phases of the war and the changes that occurred as a result of the combat experience obtained will be presented.

ВОЕННОЕ ПРОТИВОБОРСТВО НА УКРАИНЕ В РАКУРСЕ МОЛЕЛИРОВАНИЯ КОНФЛИКТИНГА И ПРОЦЕССОВ СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ ДЕСТРУКЦИИ

The military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, which began as a local clash, scaled up into a systemic antagonism between Russia and the Western World that had consolidated against it. The exact space and time frames for what could be the biggest military conflict in Europe since World War II have not yet been determined. They are unstable, as they directly depend on military dynamics. Nevertheless, the axiom wording “everything ends sooner or later” is no exception to the conflict. One can attempt to foresee potential outcomes of events that follow the end of the active (hot) phase of the military confrontation in Ukraine, with a certain degree of margin for error. There are many scenarios to choose from when deciding how parties in the conflict should behave. In total, the tactical and strategic actions of the parties can be reduced to certain models of confrontational interaction that Russia and the Western World will construct in the post-active phase of the conflict. The author of this article uses the method of predictive modeling of the situation to assess the possibility of developing one model of the conflict process into another and characterize the risks of social destruction inherent in these models. Key words: Russia, Western World, globalizing conflict, modeling of social processes, model of confrontational interaction, social destruction.

The Wave of Broad-Spectrum Crises in the EU Over the Last Decade: The Effect of Chaos or the Arrival of the Black Swan? The Impact of Crises on Integration Dynamics

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the European Union has been undergoing a wave of broad-based crises. The Eurozone crisis, the effects of which are still being felt by the EU economy and the integration process as a whole, the subsequent so-called migration crisis with its impact on the integration dynamic, the British referendum on Brexit, and the pandemic crisis, which may change the integration slowdown. Open war conflict in Europe connected with Russian aggression towards Ukraine. Does this development correspond to the concept of chaos or is it the arrival of the black swan? What security challenges have these crises brought? Narrative comparison of the sensitivity of EU ´s states as a chosen methodology targeting to internal system structure of the EU. Macroeconomic vulnerability, geo-economic vulnerability, polarisation of the EU member states, a decline in the Union unity and a return to national interests. But also, a rethinking of self-sufficiency in strategic zones and questions of strategic autonomy in critical infrastructure.

The Principle of Solidarity Within the Italian Constitution. Recent Issues and Developments in the European Context.

The Constitution of the Italian Republic asserts the principle of solidarity in a particularly evident manner and marks one of the clearest instances and one of the most strongly enshrined manifestations of that principle within Europe. The centrality and pervasive way this watchword of the contemporary political and legal lexicon is used takes on a particular depth in the light of the immense tragedy of the migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea, who for several years now have been knocking on the doors of Europe day after day, with a profound effect on the Old Continent. The word solidarity has taken on an even more dramatic depth since Russia launched an unprovoked war of aggression against its peaceful neighbour, Ukraine, resulting in a significant armed conflict in Europe and an increase in the number of refugees and asylum-seekers from Ukraine. In contrast to the weak and uncertain European solidarity towards those migrants who reach its southern boundaries, the EU’s solidarity towards the Ukrainian people has been clear and evident.

The G-20 and Global Rise of Indian State

The G-20 (Group of Twenty) is the first global forum that can be considered a great step for global economic cooperation in the 21st century. It is associated with the current transformation of the world order as well as the requirement to find global solutions to this century’s problems which are progressively acquiring global dimensions. With this background, the emergence of the G-20 has been perceived as an affirmation of the increasingly multi-polar order and a sign of the end of the West’s domination of the world economy and politics. On the other hand, it has been viewed as a response to the increasing interdependence created by globalization in which north-south distance is to some extent mitigated. The result is that a country like India is becoming a leading actor in the world along with an emerging system. India is holding the G-20 Presidency for one year from December 2022 to 30 November 2023. It is also about to host the world community on 9-10 September 2023 on the occasion of the eighteenth G-20 Summit. This Presidency is an important opportunity for India to demonstrate its leadership and strive to strengthen multilateral cooperation at a time when the world is grappling with the debt crisis, looming recession, the slow spanning of the Sustainable Development Goals agenda, and great power competition, accelerating and facing challenges such as the conflict in Europe. This article traces the evolution of G-20 in light of India’s forthcoming Presidency and projects G-20 as a global governance grouping that successfully seeks to bridge the North-South divide.

Geoconflictological Approach in Research of Russian-Rkrainian War

The article is devoted to possibilities of applying geographical approaches in the study of protracted multilevel conflicts. In particular, the research potential of such a new interdisciplinary field of science as geoconflictology was assessed. The purpose of this study is to show spatio-temporal parameterization of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and determination of the influence of geographical factors on its structure and dynamics. The main results of the research: the object and subject of the conflict are defined, its spatial and temporal boundaries are outlined, the evolution of the morphology of the participants in the conflict, possible points of maximum escalation and de-escalation are traced. The influence of geographical factors on the conflict was determined and analyzed. In particular, the influence of the geographical remoteness of metropolises and colonies on the subsequent frequency of conflicts and the risk of conflicts between them. The article emphasizes the determinism and inevitability of the emergence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In particular, it is determined by the patterns of development and interaction of territorial systems. An attempt to extrapolate the duration and stages of previous protracted conflicts in Europe to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was made. The possible influence of the potential of the geographical location on the course and resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is also determined. The article is one of the first attempts to interpret the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in a geographical dimension.

"Peaceful Resolution of Regional Conflicts in Europe and Asia and the Future of the World Economy: From the Perspective of Academic Collaboration" and "Global Role of Asia-Indo Pacific in International Relations: Anthropocene, Peace and Security"

"Peaceful Resolution of Regional Conflicts in Europe and Asia and the Future of the World Economy: From the Perspective of Academic Collaboration" and "Global Role of Asia-Indo Pacific in International Relations: Anthropocene, Peace and Security"

Weather and climate and their human impacts and responses during the Thirty Years' War in central Europe

Abstract. The Thirty Years' War, which took place from 1618 to 1648 CE, was an armed military conflict in Europe. It resulted from the culmination of theological differences between advocates of the Roman Catholic and Protestant churches, as well as a power struggle for European political hegemony. This war brought about extensive devastation to Europe. Based on documentary evidence, this paper characterizes the climate, weather extremes, and economic and socio-political events in central Europe during that time. Natural climate forcing indicates a gradual climate deterioration during the first half of the 17th century, associated with a decrease in solar activity towards the Maunder Minimum and increased volcanic activity. The mean temperatures in central Europe from 1618 to 1648 were significantly colder than the reference period of 1961 to 1990 in winter, autumn, and annually, while precipitation and drought means did not differ significantly from the reference period. Summer temperatures, spring precipitation, and drought also exhibited significantly greater variability. As for weather extremes, particularly late winter, late spring and early autumn frosts, floods, intense rain spells, and droughts affected grain, fruit, and vine grape harvests, as well as the yields of other crops. These weather extremes contributed to various human impacts, such as food shortages (reflecting harvests and grain prices), famines, and epidemics. Ultimately, these events, along with the effects of the war, led to a decline in the population. The results obtained are discussed within the broader European context, taking into account climate, weather extremes, and socio-economic impacts.

‘Due to the Special Circumstances…’: Dutch Legislation Relating to Internal and External Threats, 1914–1920

ABSTRACT Dutch security policy was based on the unshakeable premise of strict armed neutrality in any subsequent European conflict. In no way could pretexts be given to belligerents to actively involve the Netherlands in a European war. International law and internal legislation restricting the behaviour and freedoms of citizens were, next to the army, to be the main lines of defence. Parliamentary control had to remain intact. However, the legislation, already prepared before 1914, proved insufficient, especially after 1917, to deal with the growing dangers, including ideological ones. New legislation, especially directed against perceived internal and external Bolshevik threats, gave the state new powers over both aliens and its own citizens that had been thought unthinkable a short time before. Except over intelligence services, however, Parliament continued to have the final say.

Pragmatic Opportunism: Ireland and the Czechoslovak Crisis 1938–39

Acquisition of the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia was the next phase of Nazi Germany’s expansion in 1938. When it seemed likely that the region would indeed be incorporated into Germany’s borders, based on a mixed historic and ethno-cultural logic, nations across Europe with unresolved border questions of their own took notice—Ireland among them. This article will examine the extent to which a fervent desire to undo the country’s partition influenced Irish foreign policy at a time when international tensions over the Sudetenland were brewing into a potential European conflict. The contradictory nature of Irish foreign policy at the time will be illustrated, and Ireland’s navigation of one of interwar Europe’s most dynamic crises will in turn be re-assessed.

Las comunidades energéticas como iniciativas emergentes que luchan contra el cambio climático

It is urgent to make a change of strategy that successfully faces the energy transition to achieve the 2030 sustainable development goals, the armed conflict in Europe, the high price of energy supply and the high energy dependence at European and national level. In this scenario, the energy community, as a new legal entity, driven by European regulations, can be considered an effective tool to fight against climate change, accelerating the energy transition and guaranteeing a fair and inclusive energy system so necessary in our country. At the national level, the legal framework that regulates energy communities is insufficient. Thus, is it necesary a legal, technical and financial development to promote the constitution of such entities. In this paper, we study their legal nature, proposing, within the framework of Social Economy organisations, the associations and cooperatives as suitable legal formula. They have similar characteristics, provide environmental, social and economic benefits for their members, under principles of voluntary, inclusive and democratic participation; in order to improve the quality of life of citizens; in short, to work on behalf of people and our planet.

THE MAIN STAGES OF DEPLOYMENT OF HYBRID AGGRESSION BY THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AGAINST UKRAINE

A historical analysis of the hybrid aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, which became the most dramatic event in the recent history of Ukraine, at the beginning of the third decade of independence, was conducted. The open armed actions of the Russian Federation against Ukraine caused new challenges not only to the national security of Ukraine, but also to the security of the world in general. Currently, the term "hybrid war" best characterizes the actions of the Russian Federation in relation to Ukraine. It is this type of warfare that combines not only military means, but also informational, economic, political, diplomatic, and humanitarian means. At the same time, the «hybrid wars» of the Russian Federation use many tools, starting from the spread of panic rumors to the mobilization of the potential of the church, agents of influence in the economy, political bodies or the use of so-called soft power. The article analyzes the step-by-step process of the military conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, starting with the occupation of the Crimean Peninsula, the open Russian-Ukrainian armed confrontation in the east of the Ukrainian state, and ending with a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Within each of the stages, separate periods are distinguished, the evolution of which determined and changed the motives of the behavior of the Russian Federation and led to the beginning of hostilities. The Russian-Ukrainian war requires a complex scientific understanding, study and generalization of the experience of conducting military operations in the largest armed conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War. Conclusions were made regarding the need to consolidate the efforts of the EU, the USA and other democratic states as a guarantee of preventing hybrid aggression by states that act from the position of force, rather than the force of law.

The “Sea Factor” in Regional Cooperation: The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War

The “sea factor” has a crucial influence on coastal states’ domestic and foreign policies, and may create additional incentives for regional cooperation and integration. The Russo-Ukrainian War, the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, has become a stress test for many regional transport and infrastructure projects. Moreover, this armed conflict has had different effects in different cases. For the Three Seas Initiative, the Russo-Ukrainian war became an additional incentive to strengthen cooperation. It gave the initiative new meaning and even stimulated its expansion through the decision to grant partner status to Ukraine. At the same time, this conflict had negative consequences for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The war also led to the emergence of another area of cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey in the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Testing the effects of group-affirmation in active conflict: Ukrainians' trust toward Russia.

How can states with a history of recent armed conflict trust one another? Political psychology offers two competing approaches to increase trust between the publics of different countries: appealing to an overarching, common identity above the national level vs. affirming a sense of national identity. This study aims to examine the scope conditions of group-affirmation effects on trust in active conflicts by testing which group-affirmation approach increases trust towards Russia among the Ukrainian public. Distrust between Ukraine and Russia aggravates security fears and limits hope for a meaningful resolution of the bloodiest armed conflict in Europe since 1994. Hostility levels have risen dramatically between the populations of Ukraine and Russia after the events of 2013-2015. The study employs a survey experiment (between-subjects design) to evaluate these competing approaches. The survey was fielded in late May-June 2020 by a reputable public opinion research firm, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), based in Ukraine. The results suggest that in areas where conflict is salient, national identity affirmation can increase trust in subsamples that hold preexisting baseline levels of affinity toward the outgroup. When combined with the more anti-Russian Ukrainians however, this positive effect was cancelled out. In contrast, emphasis on an overarching, common ingroup identity did not raise trust in any subgroups. Examining the disparate effects of national identity affirmation in anti-Russian and pro-Russian regional subsamples helps specify the scope conditions of which group-affirmation can be most effective.

Listening to Human Rights: Class Conflict in Hanns Eisler’s Deutsche Sinfonie

Abstract In what began as a piece against the Nazi concentration camps, the composer Hanns Eisler and his collaborator, the poet and playwright Bertolt Brecht, created the eleven-movement, twelve-tone Deutsche Sinfonie, Op. 50 (1935–1958) to communicate political ideas. They soon expanded it to articulate what they saw as the very roots of fascism: militarism and capitalism. To explain the problems of class conflict in Europe, Eisler and Brecht focused on two groups that were central to Marxist–Leninist ideology: peasants and industrial workers. In two movements, the Peasant Cantata (Bauernkantate) and Workers Cantata (Arbeiterkantate), they portrayed long-standing injustices that peasants and industrial workers endured in the twentieth century. Eisler thus viewed the Deutsche Sinfonie, his largest and most ambitious work, as a way of explaining the arc of modern German history—from the late nineteenth century through to the 1940s—and how the Nazis came to power. The article further argues that the Deutsche Sinfonie can be analysed in relation to the discourse on human rights, drawing on the work of Martha Nussbaum, Micheline Ishay and other human rights theorists and historians, as a contribution to what Mark Philip Bradley calls the ‘global human rights imagination’. The article explains the vital role that the Peasant Cantata and Workers Cantata had in the overall conception of the work and how human rights issues were at the core of that musical idea. To place the Deutsche Sinfonie in historical and cultural context, this interdisciplinary analysis integrates methodologies of both cultural history and musicology.

THE UKRAINE WAR IN THE DAWN OF A NEW GLOBAL MONETARY ORDER

The Ukraine War does not just represent the large-scale reactivation of conventional military conflict in Europe. As a major confrontation between great powers whose span encompasses several overlapping arenas, it also involves another clash in the intensifying strategic competition to determine the future architecture of the global financial and monetary order and maybe even a potential watershed that can trigger its rearrangement. Under these conditions, currencies and monetary assets are being targeted, weaponized as vectors of power projection and also harnessed as asymmetric equalizers in the pursuit of victory. In this regard, in order to offer a clear situational awareness of the background, the present article explains the enduring symbiotic connection between money and power and its importance for the practice of statecraft in the domain of high politics. As a meaningful precedent, the following section contends that the Kremlin’s takeover of Crimea unleashed a clash in which both the so-called “collective West” under American leadership and the Russian Federation relied on monetary instruments for both offensive and defensive purposes. Next, the paper scrutinizes how monetary elements are playing a major role in the deepening mutual hostility between Western powers and Russia as a result of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Whereas the Western coalition has implemented various measures in an attempt to sink the monetary components of Russian national power, the Russians are approaching this challenge through counterintuitive strategies as a force multiplier to strengthen the rouble’s position and also as a catalyst that could trigger a chain reaction which accelerates de-dollarization on a global scale.

Global Public Debt Since 1995: Long-Term Trends, Current Phase, Medium-Term Outlook for Economic Growth

Topic. The paper aims to identify long-term trends in global public debt (since 1995), provide its current overview (the magnitude of debt, concentration levels among participants and instruments, risk factors in the current phase of debt accumulation) and estimate its impact on global economic development over the medium term. This analysis has significant scientific and practical relevance due to the unprecedented character of factors affecting global level of indebtedness in the past few years (the Covid-19 pandemic since 2020 and the biggest military conflict in Europe since the Second World War since 2022). Methods. The main sources for the research were reports, outlooks and data bases of national regulators and international organizations (International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank for International Settlements, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) concerning public debt, research in this field conducted by leading research centers and financial market participants. Results. Two major periods in global debt development over time are shown: 1995 – 2007-08 with stable relative global public debt level, and since 2008 – rising levels of public debt. High levels of concentration in the global debt market and even in higher degree the government securities market are analyzed. These markets are characterized by the highly uneven distribution of debt among advanced and developing economies, state and local governments (central governments are main borrowers), instruments (predominantly global debt is issued through bonds nominated in domestic currencies with a straight fix rate). Risk factors in the current (since 2010) wave of global debt accumulation are described: 1. the magnitude of accumulated debt, its higher rate of growth and distribution among countries; 2. debt accumulation during a prolonged period of weak economic growth and investment activity in the 2010s; 3. the consequences of Covid pandemic and the military conflict in Ukraine. Economic repercussions of a high level of the country’s indebtedness, including its threshold level, are shown. Many key participants of the global public debt market (especially advanced economies) are exposed beyond such threshold. Policy tools for reducing public debt are listed. Preliminary estimates of the medium-term impact of the global debt market conjuncture on global economic development are given. The existence of self-amplifying risks of global stagflation and public debt crisis is revealed. Discussion. The impact of extraordinary factors affecting economic development in the world from 2020 on the global public debt market requires further research.