ВОЕННОЕ ПРОТИВОБОРСТВО НА УКРАИНЕ В РАКУРСЕ МОЛЕЛИРОВАНИЯ КОНФЛИКТИНГА И ПРОЦЕССОВ СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ ДЕСТРУКЦИИ

Abstract

The military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, which began as a local clash, scaled up into a systemic antagonism between Russia and the Western World that had consolidated against it. The exact space and time frames for what could be the biggest military conflict in Europe since World War II have not yet been determined. They are unstable, as they directly depend on military dynamics. Nevertheless, the axiom wording “everything ends sooner or later” is no exception to the conflict. One can attempt to foresee potential outcomes of events that follow the end of the active (hot) phase of the military confrontation in Ukraine, with a certain degree of margin for error. There are many scenarios to choose from when deciding how parties in the conflict should behave. In total, the tactical and strategic actions of the parties can be reduced to certain models of confrontational interaction that Russia and the Western World will construct in the post-active phase of the conflict. The author of this article uses the method of predictive modeling of the situation to assess the possibility of developing one model of the conflict process into another and characterize the risks of social destruction inherent in these models. Key words: Russia, Western World, globalizing conflict, modeling of social processes, model of confrontational interaction, social destruction.