European Conflict Research Articles

Introduction

Scholarly and public interest in the nexus of capitalism and global governance has intensified in recent years. The persistence of economic inequality, the rise of populism, the backlash against globalization, the Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain fragility, the resurgence of open conflict in Europe, and the urgency of the climate change crisis have only drawn further attention to the relationships of markets and trade to norms and institutions. Solutions to many of these challenges, which are closely tied to capitalist dynamics, require interventions on a scale that only institutions of global governance can provide. At the same time, these challenges compromise governance institutions by making them susceptible to private influence. Moreover, critics have raised alarm about the ways some forms of global governance – such as powerful philanthropic institutions, private summitry forums, and international organizations that enforce economic globalization on nation-states – evade democratic accountability. Such developments have prompted scholars to analyze the entangled histories of capitalism and global governance and the evolution of the global economy and its regulation as well as collective efforts to provide for the well-being of humans and their environments.

IMPROVE THE INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT TO STRENGTHEN ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN VIETNAM

The World Bank (WB) has forecast the lowest growth outlook for the global market since 1993 with a growth rate of 1.7% (except for the two years of the Covid 19 pandemic). This reflects the difficult situation of the world economy when facing the consequences of the global COVID 19 epidemic, strategic competition between major countries, geopolitical conflicts in Europe, and the Russia - Ukraine war and the recent outbreak of conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Harmas. These events have made the economic recession more and more severe, pushing the risk of increased inflation, supply chain disruption, and the risk of food shortage globally. Vietnam is one of the few countries with growth in the years affected by the pandemic, however the growth rate in 2023 does not meet expectations (6.5%) and Inflation is at risk of increasing. However, attracting foreign investment is one of the important momentium forces to help the economy quickly restore growth. Exports (including crude oil) of the region foreign investment (FDI) in 2022 reached more than 275.9 billion USD, an increase of 11.8% compared to 2021, accounting for 74.3% of the country's total export turnover. Imports reached more than 233.2 billion USD, an increase of 6.7% compared to 2021, accounting for 65% of the country's total import turnover. The FDI sector had a trade surplus of more than 42.7 billion USD, including crude oil, while the domestic business sector had a trade deficit of more than 30.3 billion USD. The FDI sector's contribution to the state budget reached about 21.2 billion USD, an increase of 21.4% compared to 2021, accounting for 28% of total state budget revenue, an increase of more than 2.2% compared to the proportion of contributions to the state budget. total budget revenue in 2021. With such a crucial role, foreign investment capital tended to decrease in 2022, total foreign investment capital (including new registration, adjustment and capital contribution and share purchase) reached nearly 29.3 billion USD, down 24.6% over the same period in 2021. Facing both domestic and international challenges, Vietnam has many solutions to continue improving the investment environment both institutions. mechanisms as well as the business environment to continue to be an attractive destination for foreign investors.

ФІНАНСУВАННЯ ОБОРОННИХ ВИТРАТ УКРАЇНИ: НОВА ГЕОПОЛІТИЧНА ПАРАДИГМА ЧИ ЗБЕРЕЖЕННЯ СТАЛИХ ТЕНДЕНЦІЙ?

The largest military conflict in Europe since the Second World War raises natural questions about the economic justification of its causes and its impact on various sectors of the economy. First of all, the defense sector comes under analysis, in which significant changes have taken place in all countries over the last decade. A significant critical review of the literature is carried out in the paper. It revealed how the degree of financing of the defense sector, the transparency of such financing, and its size affect the development of national security and defense resilience, and how deeply these issues were considered from a methodological point of view. The research examines the issue of defense spending in Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the EU, the USA, and China. It is shown that these countries observed different trends in the financing of the army, which was caused by different strategies and approaches to the probability of a high-intensity military conflict. Based on economic and mathematical analysis, the paper demonstrates that the highest level of militarization was observed precisely in the Russian Federation, which was purposefully preparing for war. While Ukraine's military spending was roughly at the same level. The EU and the US had similar dynamics and stable amplitude in military spending. China had a stable percentage of military spending in the state budget. Given the current geopolitical situation, it is supposed to expect further increases in defense expenditures in all of the analysed countries to modernize their armies. The paper emphasizes the importance of transparency and effective budgeting in ensuring a strong and well-equipped army that can defend the country and strengthen its international position. One way to achieve transparency and openness in budgeting is through the development of an appropriate open information system based on the concept of assessing openness and transparency in budgeting and financial management in the defense and security sector of Ukraine, which should be quantitatively measured and programmatically implemented.

РІЧ ПОСПОЛИТА В ПОЛІТИЦІ ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКИХ МОНАРХІВ ХVIII CТОЛІТТЯ

In the XVIII century, the problems of solving national issues begin to play a special role on the international arena. Especially accute is the Polish issue, which was based on a kind of fusion of stereotypes established in society in combination with the correspondingly interpreted information about the past and present of the Polish people. The aim of the article is to study the evolution of the Polish question in European politics in the XVIII century. The article describes the prerequisites for the formation of the “Polish question” in the XVIII century. The evolution of the views of the leading states of the world at that time in relation to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is tracked. It is determined that the war for the “Polish inheritance” of 1733–1735 became the first serious European conflict after the two great wars of the first quarter of the XVIII century. The authors note that the Polish question is, first of all, a problem of the state status and borders of Polish lands in international relations in Europe. The article identifies the main political contradictions in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which became a catalyst for external intervention. The transformation of the relationship of Russia, France, Prussia and Austria to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth during the XVIII century is determined. The scientific novelty of this article lies in the coverage of the evolution of the Polish question from its formation in the middle of the XVIII century to the divisions of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The article clarifies the peculiarities of the political position of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth on the international arena in the first half of the XVIII century; the consequences of the division of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the specifics of the formation of the Polish question are highlighted. In the conclusions, the authors note that the loss of its own statehood by the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was provoked by a number of foreign and national political conflicts. Indeed, if we carefully analyze the international situation on the eve of 1772, we can confidently say that the main role was played by an internal factor. The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth had neither a strong centralized government, nor a consistent foreign policy, nor a powerful regular army. As for the foreign policy factor, here the authors of the article point out one very important trend: Russia, whose interests were then directed in the southern direction, was not ready to dismember the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Austria and Prussia pushed it to participate in the divisions, hoping to weaken Russian pressure against the Ottoman Empire, and to gain territorial possessions for themselves. The authors make an attempt to determine the place of the “Polish question” in international relations of the XVIII century.

Pragmatic Opportunism: Ireland and the Czechoslovak Crisis 1938–39

ABSTRACT: Acquisition of the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia was the next phase of Nazi Germany's expansion in 1938. When it seemed likely that the region would indeed be incorporated into Germany's borders, based on a mixed historic and ethno-cultural logic, nations across Europe with unresolved border questions of their own took notice—Ireland among them. This article will examine the extent to which a fervent desire to undo the country's partition influenced Irish foreign policy at a time when international tensions over the Sudetenland were brewing into a potential European conflict. The contradictory nature of Irish foreign policy at the time will be illustrated, and Ireland's navigation of one of interwar Europe's most dynamic crises will in turn be re-assessed.

Las coordenadas internacionales de la intervención y la diplomacia del imperio de Maximiliano, 1861-1867

This paper frames the history of the Second Empire in Mexico within the international context, studying the influence of the situation and the European conflicts of the time, the diplomacy developed by Maximilian and the role of the United States before the French Intervention.

Aromanian Cultural and Linguistic Shift to Greek

Aromanian-armân, (Weigand, 1895) is an oral Eastern-Romance language spoken by the Aromanians (armâni, or armãneashti), an ethnic group historically known for transhumance, dispersed over a wide area of the Balkans in what is present-day Peninsular Greece, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Southern Romania, Serbia, and Albania. These people have been noted as Aromanians or Vlachs sometime since the eighth century AD. (Caranica, 1990). Their ethnicity (Eriksen, 2010) is controversial with Greeks believing them Latinised Greeks, Romanians considering them Romanian, others as Balkan natives from Wallachia (Ruzica, 2006). In Greek, the current word for Aromanian is in fact ‘Vlach’ believed to originate from the Latin terms Volcae, Volci (Volks, Wolks) referring to a Celtic tribe from Gaul that had learnt Latin and become Latinized. The Volks-Wolks were the closest neighbors to Germanic tribes in the area, which resulted in Germans referring to all Latin speakers as ‘Volks,’ the same way they did with their language. For clarification, in this study: Aromanian, Vlach (-) Aromanian and Vlach will all be used to refer to this ethnic group and language. The word Volci was adopted by Germanic speakers and took different forms over time: Walachen, Welchland, Wallis, Wallais, Wallons, Wales, Welschme etc. These terms are still visible in different European languages today and refer to ‘Latin speaker.’ The Slavic speakers borrowed the word from the Germans as: Olahy, Olahi, Valachi, Voloh, Vloh whereas the Byzantines borrowed it as ‘Vlachs’ (Tapanikos, 2020). Their isolated modus vivendi, between pastoral valleys and high mountains, confined them to hardship and socio-cultural periphery, and allowed relative immunity from major European conflicts and periods of unrest spanning short of a millennium. From 1975 when the modern Greek Republic is finally consolidated, the ideology of ‘one people, one language’ is an intrinsic part of Greek nationality and nationalism (Moschonas, 2004). Lacking written, standardized forms, Aromanian has been transmitted orally from generation to generation in the Epirus, Macedonia and Thessally regions of Greece. With profound socio-economic changes and rewards, Aromanians left their pastoral lifestyle in large numbers (Beis, 2000) attracted by prospects of a better future in Greek urban centers and Western European countries, USA, or Australia. In modern times, with Greek being the only language of instruction and communication in the wider society (Chomsky, 1971), the generational language-transfer cycle has been broken, and Aromanian is now endangered (Dinas et al., 2011). On the other hand, Aromanian folklore and traditional festivals are very much alive through associations like the Pan-Hellenic Federation of Cultural Associations of Vlachs, while many self-identified Aromanians do not speak a word of their ancestral language, by choice (Kahl, 2004). How did this (apparent) contradiction come to be? What drove Aromanians away from their language and led to the assimilation into Greek society, language, and culture so completely that it will lead to the death of Aromanian in Greece?

BUMI Stock Price Prediction Using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) with Three Hyperparameter Tuning Regression

Shares is one of investment with moderate to high level of risk profile and return rate, and is a legal ownership proof of a company (Ltd). To obtain an optimum return with possible low risk, price of shares can be predicted or analyzed via fundamental or technical analysis. One of the most popular technical analysis is by employing computer algorithms as a device to help making decision. Long short term memory (LSTM), as a deep improvement of recurrent neural networks (RNN), is a commonly used method to predict shares price. BUMI, as one of shares in the energy sector, is the most concerned shares due to the geopolitical conflict in Europe. This research aims to predict BUMI shares price using LSTM by considering three parameters, i.e. number of hidden layers, epoch, and learning rate. Linear regression is used to obtained optimum values of each parameter whichs further combined to yield the best performance of the algorithm. Based on the analysis, the combination of minimum and optimum parameters results in the best performance by RMSE value.

TENSIONS ON THE TOPIC OF HISTORY IN POLISH-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS AS A RESULT OF INFORMATION WARFARE

The article deals with today’s ethnic-cultural tensions and how they connect with the history of Poland and Ukraine and current diplomatic relations. The article overviews the problematic development of the current nationalist movement in Poland and its relationship with the “Center-Right” government, which was formed after the election of the President of the Republic of Poland Andrzej Duda. On the example of the closure of the Polish consulates in Ukraine after the 2017 incident with a grenade launcher in Lutsk, the author shows how a single hooligan attack in an atmosphere of ethnic tensions can lead to a total knock-out of the diplomatic system of the country. The research reveals the causes, parties and goals of the conflict, as well as subjects interested in ethnic tensions. It is shown how the problems of Polish- Ukrainian relations related to the secret change in the foreign policy course of the Republic of Poland in 2008 created a “synergy” with the growth of nationalist sentiment in Europe and the expansion of Russian influence. The link between the strengthening of nationalist movements and ethno-cultural conflicts in Europe (including the appeal of patriotic youth to their memory of historical conflicts) with the proliferation of pro-Russian and anti-globalist conspiracy propaganda in popular corners of the Internet, including those directed against the processes of European integration and NATO enlargement, have been shown in the research. The research suggests ways to prevent the escalation of conflict using the examples of both the diplomacy of the President of Ukraine and initiatives of representatives of civil society. The topic of Internet propaganda as a factor of ethnic tensions and rising political movements, as well as the distortion of history in such propaganda, is proposed by the author for future research.

Alberto Basciani and Egidio Ivetic. Italia e Balcani. Storia di una prossimità

Alberto Basciani and Egidio Ivetic. <i>Italia e Balcani. Storia di una prossimità</i>

Zero COVID 19 Occurrence among 206 of 1023 Migrants of War from Syria at the Czech Border (Rapid Research Note)

Recent war conflicts in Europe and Middle East generate new refugee wawes and possible dissemination of Covid I9 variants from countries with low vaccination activity due to armed events.Therefore we have tested all migrants of war(206) coming via Hungarian Slovak Czech Border,within one week among 1023 refugees of war..who had symptoms of respiratory infection.None of tested symptomatic individuals was positive by rapid antigen test.Therefore the the risk ofCOVID I9 dissemination was not been confirmed.

The Impact of the French Revolution on Convergence Ottoman-British Politician (1789-1815)

This study examines the impact of the French Revolution on Convergence the Ottoman-British politics in the period from 1789 to 1815. where it reviews the status of both the Ottoman Empire and the state in that period, showing the nature and development of the relations that arose between the two parties. The importance of the study lies in its attempt to address the political developments that contributed to the fluctuation of the mutual political relations between the Ottoman Empire and Britain during the study period. The study aimed to shed light on the role of the Ottoman policy in exploiting the principle of conflict of interests; To maintain the integrity of its territories from any European aggression, and to avoid any political situation that might involve it in the European conflict resulting from the Napoleonic wars on the European continent. The study concluded with a set of results, the most prominent of which were: Showing the importance of the diplomatic role in managing political events in that critical period, and showing the extent of the flexibility of the Ottoman Empire in dealing with emerging political changes, and its success in exploiting the principle of conflict of interests between the great powers to lead to political gains.

The Bear in the Labyrinth

On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine, sparking the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The war is a remarkable opportunity to observe Russia’s military capabilities in a high-intensity conflict and to reflect on military trends witnessed in recent conflicts. Guillem Colom-Piella sets out a series of initial impressions on Moscow’s military performance in this ongoing conflict.◼

The German media as amplifier of the political agenda: The economic policy framing of European conflicts in times of COVID-19.

Especially in times of (corona) crisis, the German press plays a crucial role in communicating Germany’s economic policy orientation, influencing how the crisis is communicated to the public. The issue of joint European debt has never been more visible than in these times, as has the threat of a new euro crisis—Italy in focus. This study explores the German media framing of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using Italy as an example. Applying quantitative content analysis, the relative prevalence of frames rooted in competing economic policy paradigms (neoliberal/Keynesian) in press coverage from February to July 2020 is examined. The Keynesian paradigm dominates coverage. Using logit analysis, issue-specific neoliberal frames are identified as solution oriented, while Keynesian frames focus on evaluations. With Germany's policy shift regarding European joint debt and toward European greater fiscal integration, a paradigm shift is observable. Overall, findings demonstrate a relatively paradigmatic pluralistic reporting.

Collapse of Healthcare Providers-medical and Paramedical-healthcare Staff after last Three Years of Pandemics and War Conflicts

This Editorial dispatch focuses on absolute shortage of healthcare workers and their psychical and physical exhaustion with devastation consequences on healthcare providers and management of pandemics and health destruction within ongoing armed conflicts in Europe and Middle East,focusing on non prioritizing HCW versus healthcare infrastructure, vaccines medications, but putting both to the same level of priority.

A New Westphalia in MENA after the Arab Revolutions

AbstractViolent struggles in the Middle East and North Africa have led many experts to compare this era to the Thirty Years’ War, a set of interlinked and extremely deadly and destructive conflicts in Europe (1618‐48). Like that conflagration four centuries ago, they involve internal uprisings, civil conflicts, proxy wars, foreign intervention, geopolitical struggles, great‐power competition, and the participation of many regional political players. At root, all these conflicts are fights for sovereignty, one of the most important pillars upon which the state is based, the violation of which often leads to the outbreak of war. For this reason, many assert that the time is right to try to solve contemporary problems by forging a new Westphalia treaty. This study analyzes the Thirty Years’ War and the groundbreaking treaty that emerged from it, then presents a strategy to preserve state sovereignty and seek peace in the region.

Environmental damages due to war in Ukraine: A perspective

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is the most prominent conflict in Europe since the Second World War and has several geopolitical, economic, infrastructure, and health implications. The war has serious negative consequences on people and the planet. The damage to industrial and commercial infrastructure can contaminate water sources, which can be hazardous for human and ecosystem health. Water shortages and deteriorating sanitary conditions are already evident since water supply and sanitary infrastructure have been hit. Air quality is adversely affected due to troop movement and constant bombarding. Chances of radiation leakage from nuclear sites also remain. The physical, chemical and biological characteristics of soil have been impacted due to shelling and explosions, as a result of which, agriculture has been severely affected. Military actions have caused large-scale deforestation and even wildfires. There is also fear of biodiversity loss and species extinction in the long term. The war of such nature may directly hamper efforts to deal with aspects such as climate change, sustainable development goals (SDGs), conservation and protection of biodiversity, and pollution control at local and global levels. Besides this, the repercussions of this war on essential services such as healthcare, education, social security, and public amenities will be felt for a long. As a result of important interruptions in the supply of energy and raw materials throughout the world, prices for commodities, oil, and food have risen dramatically. To avert such damages in the future and make the offenders accountable, in the long term, reforms in the mandate of the International Criminal Court are required to include environmental crimes. New international norms to safeguard the environment during conflict are urgently needed. The environment should not be considered an unavoidable war casualty. Environmental and human security are inextricably linked. The international community's reaction to the crisis must include addressing this as a priority.

Improving Care During Peacetime, War, and Disasters: A Call for Agile Military Civilian Strategic Alliances.

Improving Care During Peacetime, War, and Disasters: A Call for Agile Military Civilian Strategic Alliances.

NATIONAL INTERESTS OF UKRAINE BETWEEN WAR AND PEACE

The prospects for international security are closely linked to solving the age-old problems of war and peace, especially on the European continent. The long period of residence of European peoples in this part of the world, their communication with each other revealed numerous models of coexistence from armed confrontation to the formation of political integration with focus first on the economic component and then on socio-political unity. The creation of the European Union has changed relations between European countries. European states have committed themselves to resolving all disputes peacefully and to cooperating closely within the framework of pan-European institutions. However, the military conflict in Eastern Ukraine has reminded us that the war has not disappeared from the European continent and that Europe is facing new threats and challenges. Rising international tensions and the threat of large-scale military conflict in Europe are becoming a central theme of contemporary political discourse. The article analyzes the reasons for the increase in international conflict and new challenges to Ukraine’s national security. The author emphasizes that in order to understand the reasons, it is important to find out what interests each of the parties to the conflict pursues and what role our country plays in the East-West geopolitical confrontation. It is noted that the difference in views of Russia and the West on international relations leaves little room for compromise on Ukraine. The Kremlin’s demands for security combined with the “rattling” of weapons on Ukraine’s borders have provoked mixed reactions in the European Union and the United States. It is clear that Russia’s blackmail is bearing fruit and the start of the negotiation process marks a revision of European security policy. Given these circumstances, the author emphasizes the importance for Ukraine to be an active subject of the negotiation process in order to protect its own national interests.

There must be Some Kind of Way Out of Here: Towards ‘Reframing’ European Cormorant-Fisheries Conflicts

One of the most widespread and persistent environmental conflicts in Europe involves the Great Cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo. The ‘continental’ race P. c. sinensis comprises over 80% of the European breeding population and its numbers and geographical distribution have increased and expanded dramatically in recent decades. Consequently, Cormorants have increasingly come into conflict with fisheries interests across Europe, as many people believe that the birds are now so numerous that they cause declines in fish catches, with associated impacts on commercial and recreational fisheries. The Central European policy issue is thus how to deal with: (1) a large pan-European population of Cormorants, (2) very often breeding in some Member States but overwintering and preying upon fish in others, (3) where there is generally a lack of unequivocal scientific evidence for predation impact on fisheries and (4) where there are growing political calls for coordinated European management, whilst (5) many believe that the site-specific local/regional management advocated by some is ineffective. Using case examples and experiences from several pan-European studies and research networks, this paper describes the complexity of this issue and the diversity of associated opinions. Much of the controversy over Cormorants is fuelled by differences of opinion and, coupled with its persistence and entrenched nature, it has many of the characteristics of a so-called ‘intractable environmental conflict’. As such, this paper draws on a ‘reframing’ model proposed to deal with such situations and discusses the various ‘frames’ by which issues are viewed. It also proposes that future research might best focus on specific fisheries sectors that appear to be ‘hotspots’ for conflicts. Here, demonstration projects could involve a reframing exercise, coupled with new scientific research and practical experimentation within an adaptive management framework – one aim of which might be to increase the scope and geographical coverage of effective management activities.