Confidence-building Measures Research Articles

THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTE AS A THREAT TO ASEAN COOPERATIVE SECURITY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

The article provides an overview of the dispute in the South China Sea between China and the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) through the prism of ASEAN cooperative security. Emphasis is placed on the study of documents that envisionage mechanisms for resolving the dispute between China and ASEAN. It is determined that the activities of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as a collective actor in resolving the dispute in the South China Sea are limited exclusively to confidence-building measures as the ultimate goal of activities in this area and the development of a code of conduct with the People's Republic of China. At the same time, the main legal instrument of ASEAN's relations with China at the mentioned waters remains the legally non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea of 4 November 2002, which indicates China's unwillingness to create a direct framework for cooperation in the South China Sea with a view to furthrer strengthening its position in the waters through militarisation and land reclamation activities. The authors also consider and analyse the main limitations of ASEAN's security policy in the Asia-Pacific region and its cooperative security regime, including absolutisation of sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs, consensus as the basis for decision-making, adherence to the principle of mushyawarah - consultations as an end in itself, non-use of potential conflict resolution mechanisms due to soft institutionalism and the use of bilateral joint resource development in the South-China Sea, which undermines the principle of multilateralism of ASEAN cooperative security.

EDUKASI KARAKTER BANGSA UNTUK PEKERJA MIGRAN INDONESIA, SUATU STRATEGI KONTRA RADIKALISASI DAN CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES

In line with the State's commitment to the importance of inculcating character for the survival of the Indonesian people, Indonesian Migrant Workers as part of a group of people who want to find a decent living to fulfill their needs by leaving their hometown for years looking for work abroad so they need to get an education. Character. The existence of Indonesian Migrant Workers is felt to be increasingly important to pay attention to considering their condition seems to be a marginalized society. Migrant workers are a group of people who are getting to know the civilization of the outside world, which requires controlling and adjusting to a new social life for themselves so that the presence of the government (the state) is a place of protection as well as a determinant of survival for workers from various threats originating from outside, both internal and external. physical and non-physical, such as the spread of Radicalism today. The purpose of this study is to analyze the extent to which the state has an important role in cultivating and growing character values for Indonesian Migrant Workers through strengthening Character Education before leaving to become migrant workers. The research method used is a qualitative method with an educational approach. Data collection techniques using documentation techniques in the form of scientific journals and books written by competent authors. While the study of data analysis using content analysis techniques. The findings of this study are that Indonesian Migrant Workers have not received an adequate portion of character education, thus, if prepared properly, it will become a forum for dignified human development, especially in preparing human resources who have noble character qualities and are ready to work abroad. . On the contrary, it will be a source of disaster when the noble character of migrant workers is ignored or does not get adequate attention. This research supports Doni Kusuma's character theory and Imam Al-Gazali's moral strengthening. The conclusion of the study is that optimizing character education for Indonesian migrant workers can prevent the transmission of radicalism and strengthen the nation's dignity in the midst of world civilization which has an impact on the realization of Confidence-building measures (CBMs) and national security.

UNLEASHING SOUTH CHINA SEA CONFLICT: MULTIPLEX ANALYSIS OF DIPLOMATIC CHAOS

The South China Sea, one of the busiest trade routes around the world consisting of an area of 3.5 million square kilometers, is subject to several overlapping territorial disputes involving China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei as its stakeholders. The South China Sea connects Asia to Europe and Africa. Political rivals have tried amicable settlement of the contemporary disputes but instead, the tensions have increased over the course of recent years. Multiple Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) and Treaties of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) have been signed by the contending states but all have proven to be in vain. Mechanisms like Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) are used for chest thumping and hard power display. Numerous other factors are there that eventuate in weakening of diplomatic ties between the contending states. One of such factors is involved is the presence of alien powers like the United States for maintenance of a World Order favouring her on interests under the guise of providing security to the region. Adopting multiplex methodology, this research paper adopts an approach aiming at giving a synopsis of the inherent disputes between the stakeholders, the reasons for failure of efforts for amicable settlement, the role of the stakeholders with special reference to the major contending forces i.e., United States and China, the subsequent implications arising therefrom and some possible solutions to the issue. Keywords: SCS, FONOS, CBM, Multiplex methodology.

Evaluation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Lake Using Remote Sensing Data and GIS

Ethiopia began constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011 on the Blue Nile near the borders of Sudan for electricity production. The dam was constructed as a roller-compacted concrete (RCC) gravity-type dam, comprising two power stations, three spillways, and the Saddle Dam. The main dam is expected to be 145 m high and 1780 m long. After filling of the dam, the estimated volume of Nile water to be bounded is about 74 billion m3. The first filling of the dam reservoir started in July 2020. It is crucial to monitor the newly impounded lake and its size for the water security balance for the Nile countries. We used remote sensing techniques and a geographic information system to analyze different satellite images, including multi-looking Sentinel-2, Landsat-9, and Sentinel-1 (SAR), to monitor the changes in the volume of water from 21 July 2020 to 28 August 2022. The volume of Nile water during and after the first, second, and third filling was estimated for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Reservoir Lake and compared for future hazards and environmental impacts. The proposed monitoring and early warning system of the Nile Basin lakes is essential to act as a confidence-building measure and provide an opportunity for cooperation between the Nile Basin countries.

On the Results of the Consultative Meeting of the States Parties to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction on the Issue of Compliance by the United States and Ukraine with Obligations under Article I and Article IV of the Convention

In the period from 5 to 9 September 2022, in Geneva, at the initiative of the Russian Federation, in accordance with Article IV of the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction (BTWC), a Consultative Meeting of the States Parties was held BTWC. As a result of the event, the delegations adopted a report that does not remove the concerns of the Russian Federation on issues related to violations of the BTWC on the territory of Ukraine. This circumstance predetermined the need to promote Russian initiatives to strengthen the BTWC compliance mechanism by adopting a protocol to the Convention defining verification mechanisms, as well as to create a BTWC Scientific Advisory Committee and expand confidence-building measures.

On the Results of the Consultative Meeting of the States Parties to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction on the Issue of Compliance by the United States and Ukraine with Obligations under Article I and Article IV of the Convention

In the period from 5 to 9 September 2022, in Geneva, at the initiative of the Russian Federation, in accordance with Article IV of the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction (BTWC), a Consultative Meeting of the States Parties was held BTWC. As a result of the event, the delegations adopted a report that does not remove the concerns of the Russian Federation on issues related to violations of the BTWC on the territory of Ukraine. This circumstance predetermined the need to promote Russian initiatives to strengthen the BTWC compliance mechanism by adopting a protocol to the Convention defining verification mechanisms, as well as to create a BTWC Scientific Advisory Committee and expand confidence-building measures.

Plus Ça Change? Prospects of a Nuclear Deterrence Multipolarity in Southern Asia

ABSTRACT Some scholars assess that Southern Asia comprises a nuclear chain or a deterrence trilemma. Although the region is home to three states with nuclear weapons, there is only one clear nuclear deterrence dyad. India and Pakistan have explored the contours of nuclear deterrence in several past military crises, while nuclear weapons have been notably absent from recent Sino-Indian border tensions. What factors or developments might push the region toward a nuclear deterrence multipolarity? The key variable is the India–China relationship and the extent to which nuclear weapons become more prominent in respective national security belief systems in New Delhi and Beijing. Notable trends already favor such a development, including changing geopolitics in the region, the rise of nationalist domestic politics, technology competition, and growing crisis escalation concerns. Two fulcrums that might tip the region from the status quo into a deterrence multipolarity are parallel nuclear posture changes in India and China that create nuclear coupling, and hardening of geopolitical alignments into more adversarial blocs. Preventing deterrence multipolarity through new nuclear confidence-building measures will be difficult owing to divergent interests, power and institutions in the region. Upgrades to existing nuclear CBMs may be more politically feasible. Even in the absence of new nuclear CBMs, however, China, India, and Pakistan could build predictability in the region and mitigate potential sources of conflict through new measures to manage common-pool resource competition, dangerous behaviours in space, and a range of crises and emergencies.

External and Domestic Drivers of Nuclear Trilemma in Southern Asia: China, India, and Pakistan

ABSTRACT This paper discusses both the external and domestic drivers of the nuclear trilemma in Southern Asia that involves China, India and Pakistan. It seeks to untangle the complexity of the dyad and the triangular nature of the relationships between the three countries and highlights major differences as well as similarities in the nuclear dynamics. It identifies and examines the internal dynamics of the China–India and India–Pakistan conflicts and explores how domestic drivers such as nationalism, public opinions, and civil–military relations either mitigate or exacerbate nuclear risks in a region marked by perennial disputes, emerging rivalry, and long-standing extra-regional interferences. Against these backgrounds, the paper addresses the central theme of the nuclear trilemma between China, India, and Pakistan by looking at causes of instability, risks of conflicts and escalation to nuclear use, and prospects of restraint and risk reduction, including the development and implementation of confidence-building measures and nuclear risk reduction mechanisms.

Geopolitical “Entanglements” and the China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma

ABSTRACT The geopolitical situation in South Asia is witnessing entangled trends, which are reflected as chronic India-Pakistan confrontation, the frigid China-India relationship and the increasing US-China competition. China doesn’t want to be involved in the India-Pakistan confrontation, but it’s an undeniable fact that the China factor is shaping India-Pakistan interaction to some extent. Though the United States is an extra-regional power, it has a long history of being involved in regional affairs. Considering China, India and Pakistan all possess nuclear weapons, it’s extremely important to analyze the geopolitical trends and implications for the nuclear chain. This paper argues that the United States has been focusing on strategic competition against China, and the bilateral relationship will face fierce challenges before reaching new balance. The China-India relationship is becoming competitive and volatile, and the old framework of stabilizing bilateral relations is disintegrating. The conflicting ideology of nation-building, the extremely contradicted security perception, and the battle for geostrategic advantage in the region all contribute to India-Pakistan confrontation. Though nuclear weapons, functioning as a strategic deterrence tool, will curtail concerning parties from large-scale war, and China strongly advocates for a common and cooperative security concept, the geopolitical entanglement will have serious impact on the regional nuclear situation. This paper also gives recommendations for managing this interaction. All concerned parties should strive to overcome the security dilemma and maintain peace and stability in this region by strengthening confidence-building measures, conducting nuclear issue dialogues and improving crisis management mechanisms.

Unresolved Cold War Issues of Contemporary Outer Space Arms Control Efforts

The ineffectiveness of the existing space law treaties has allowed space faring nations to enhance their strategic capability, which has resulted in an increase in militarization and weaponization. Military use of the outer appears to be dominated by power politics, and there are uncertainties surrounding space governance and resources. Neither the established nor the emerging space faring states have actively engaged in arms control negotiations, including "Transparency and Confidence Building Measures (TCBMs)". Inthis article, the argument has been made that during the initial stages of the space race, various spacefaringnations agreed that the environment in outer space should be approached in a different manner; however,issues of military use of space and weaponization were not fully resolved through negations. These issues continue to persist in space law treaties in the form of legal lacuna's. If leftover issues from the Cold War-rivals are not resolved, the militarization of space will continue to increase.

사이버외교의 국제비교

Confidence-building measures in cyberspace are drawing attention from the international community as a means to prevent unintentional cyber disputes between countries. In particular, regional security organizations that have accumulated considerable experience and know-how while carrying out regional confidence-building and preventive diplomacy activities for a long period of time have been playing an unrivaled role in the discovery and implementation of cyber CBMs specialized in the regional cyber security environment.
 In this paper, a comparative review was attempted on the development status of cyber CBMs between OSCE and ARF. By comparing the cyber CBMs developed and implemented by OSCE and ARF, the types and details of cyber CBMs being attempted at the regional level were examined, and characteristics and limitations were derived.

Treaty on Open Skies in a regional context: The implications of the US and the Russia’s decisions to withdraw from the treaty for the security of South Caucasus and Georgia

The Treaty on Open Skies has been an important legal instrument contributing to global arms control in recent years. Signed in 1992, the Treaty on Open Skies allows the monitoring and collection of data on military potential through observation flights over one another’s territories, thus becoming a confidence-building and transparency measure among its signatories. The recent decisions by the US and Russia to withdraw from this agreement impact the security situation globally and regionally. They reflect a gradual erosion of the architecture of arms control that has been introduced since the end of the Cold War. Georgia remains the only state in the South Caucasus to be a signatory to this Treaty. It is also the only state in the region to remain (since 2008) in a conflict with Russia. While striving to join the EU and NATO, it lies on the land of strategic importance to Russia and other regional and global players. The main objective of this publication is to discuss the importance of the Treaty on Open Skies, considering its specificity from a regional perspective, and to assess the implications of the withdrawals of the US and Russia from the Treaty on security in Georgia and in the South Caucasus. Using a descriptive approach and legal-political analysis, the author discusses the creation, functioning, and causes of the breakdown of this legal-institutional system, while looking at its importance for global arms control and security related consequences it may trigger for the region. A closer look at the South Caucasus highlights the author’s belief in the Treaty’s critical role in the region and the importance of preserving its existence.

Rising Strategic Instability and Declining Prospects for Nuclear Disarmament in South Asia – A Pakistani Perspective

India and hence modifies their strategic priorities. The prevailing security dynamics in the region, such as changing nature of conflicts, introduction of new technologies, evolving deterrent force postures, and suspension of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs), have increased states’ reliance on arms build-up and decreased their inclination to arms control and disarmament. This paper offers a Pakistani perspective on how the prevailing regional environment seems less favorable to nuclear disarmament and more inclined to deterrent force modernization. To explain the above rationale, this study takes guidance from primary and secondary sources to assess disarmament challenges, and discusses the prospects for creating a new security environment in the region to promote a renewed consensus on nuclear disarmament.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian, economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term

What are the economic effects of the Ukraine war for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of Europe? In this study, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) sheds light on the immediate consequences on the one hand, but also on the medium-term structural changes caused by the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian crisis. Pre-war, almost 19 m people lived in those regions that are currently directly affected. Refugee inflows to the rest of Europe are likely to be at least three times greater than in 2015/2016. As Black Sea ports come under Russian assault, Ukraine has lost its ability to sell more than half of its exports, primarily agricultural commodities and metals. Western financial support will become ever more important as the war continues. Turning to Russia, sanctions will have a very serious impact on that country’s economy and financial sector. Despite being partly hamstrung by the fact that a large proportion of Russian reserve assets are frozen in the EU and G7, the central bank managed to stabilise financial markets by a combination of confidence-building and hard-steering measures: capital controls, FX controls, regulatory easing for financial institutions, and a doubling of the key policy rate. The medium-term and long-term outlook is negative. As a result of the war and the sanctions, the rest of Europe faces a surge in already high inflation; this will weigh on real incomes and will depress economic growth. Many European countries rely heavily on Russia for oil and gas imports: import shares are over 75% in Czechia, Latvia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria with respect to natural gas; Slovakia, Lithuania, Poland, and Finland with respect to oil and petroleum; and Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark, Lithuania, Greece, and Bulgaria with respect to solid fuels. Aside from energy, the fallout via trade for the rest of Europe is likely to be small. Non-energy trade and investment links between Russia and many European countries have declined in importance since 2013. There are four main areas of structural change and lasting impact for the EU (and Europe more broadly) as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. First, the EU will get more serious about defence. Second, the green transition will gather pace. Third, broader Eurasian economic integration will be unwound. And fourth, the EU accession prospects for countries in Southeast Europe could (and should) improve.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10368-022-00546-5.

Treaty on Open Skies in a regional context: The implications of the US and the Russia’s decisions to withdraw from the treaty for the security of South Caucasus and Georgia

The Treaty on Open Skies has been an important legal instrument contributing to global arms control in recent years. Signed in 1992, the Treaty on Open Skies allows the monitoring and collection of data on military potential through observation flights over one another’s territories, thus becoming a confidence-building and transparency measure among its signatories. The recent decisions by the US and Russia to withdraw from this agreement impact the security situation globally and regionally. They reflect a gradual erosion of the architecture of arms control that has been introduced since the end of the Cold War. Georgia remains the only state in the South Caucasus to be a signatory to this Treaty. It is also the only state in the region to remain (since 2008) in a conflict with Russia. While striving to join the EU and NATO, it lies on the land of strategic importance to Russia and other regional and global players. The main objective of this publication is to discuss the importance of the Treaty on Open Skies, considering its specificity from a regional perspective, and to assess the implications of the withdrawals of the US and Russia from the Treaty on security in Georgia and in the South Caucasus. Using a descriptive approach and legal-political analysis, the author discusses the creation, functioning, and causes of the breakdown of this legal-institutional system, while looking at its importance for global arms control and security related consequences it may trigger for the region. A closer look at the South Caucasus highlights the author’s belief in the Treaty’s critical role in the region and the importance of preserving its existence.

Covid-19 pandemic – a new challenge for the national security of the Republic of Moldova on the transnistrian conflict settlement dimension

Ensuring national security of the Republic of Moldova on the Transnistrian conflict settlement dimension during the COVID-19 global pandemic determined the need to create and implement a new paradigm for tackling the settlement process of the conflict in the Eastern districts of the Republic of Moldova in the context of reshaping the geopolitical architecture of the security environment in the South-East Europe. The lack of substantial results of the talks concerning the identification of feasible and sustainable solutions for the Transnistrian conflict is due to Moldovan authorities’ mistaken vision concerning the real interests of the actors involved in these talks that diff er from the preferences referred to in the offi cial rhetoric. COVID-19 pandemic tempered the actions of all political actors involved in the „5+2” format negotiation process that have been limited only to some sporadic declarations on the need to settle the confl ict from the Eastern districts of the Republic of Moldova and on the importance to carry out the provisions of the initiative to enhance the confi dence-building measures between the two banks of the Nistru river, integrated in the „small steps” policy, actions that do not produced tangible results on the Transnistrian confl ict settlement. The research of the issue of the Transnistrian confl ict settlement process in the condition of the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought about the decrease of the level of stability in the security area, emphasizes the reduced geopolitical potential of the Republic of Moldova in the current negotiation format that defi nes the insuffi cient level of the institutional capacity of the national security system to ensure the territorial integrity jeopardized by the geopolitical confl ict in the Eastern districts.

A lost opportunity of a grand bargain: Security architecture between NATO and Russia

Ukraine is existential to Russia, but peripheral to American interests. The “escalation dominance” advantage is with Moscow, and no amount of military aid or economic coercion, short of an actual war, will deter Moscow, given the asymmetry of interests and differing threat perceptions. American public opinion remains firmly opposed to risking a potential great power war. That said, a Ukraine—if it exists as a state after the war—at peace with its neighbours is in everyone’s interest, as is a decreased risk of a great power conflict. This policy brief identifies some confidence-building measures that might, in a similar situation in the future, result in a more realist grand bargain. A potential war might be a short punitive campaign by Russia, in which case the central thesis of this policy brief, a neutral zone in Ukraine, will remain intact. It might also be a war of occupation and conquest, in which case this paper might be considered a study in a counterfactual history of what could have been.

Addressing Nuclear Challenges, Misperceptions and Geopolitics in South Asia

India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbours, have vital stakes in maintaining strategic stability in South Asia. However, some disturbing shifts are now being observed in India’s approach towards the imperatives of strategic stability. Its aggressive pursuit of military modernisation and acquisition of emerging technologies, coupled with reported doctrinal shifts, such as pre-emptive counterforce strategy, pose a serious challenge to nuclear deterrence. The Indian leadership seems to have been emboldened by the US tilt towards India, manifested by the growing US-India strategic partnership. These developments have heightened Pakistan’s sense of insecurity. This essay seeks to assess the short-, medium- and long-term challenges to strategic stability in South Asia. It suggests a three-tiered framework of confidence-building measures at the bilateral level between India and Pakistan, the trilateral level among China, India and Pakistan, and the multilateral level whereby the major powers could facilitate conventional and nuclear confidence-building measures in the region. Keywords: South Asia, Strategic Stability, Nuclear Deterrence, Confidence-building Measures

Understanding Nuclear Postures, Weapons and Technologies in South Asia

Geographic realities and emerging technologies play a significant role in challenging strategic stability. In South Asia, the geographical proximity of India, China and Pakistan is exacerbated by contentious borders, deteriorating diplomatic relations and the mounting collusive Pakistan-China relationship. This dynamic environment merits an analysis of evolving nuclear postures, weapon systems and the development of new technologies, which may challenge strategic stability. Furthermore, tactical nuclear weapons, unmanned weapons and asymmetric warfare, have a tendency to escalate situations and to impact confidence building measures. This essay examines the nuclear postures and weapon systems of China and Pakistan and recommends methods to maintain the status quo. Keywords: emerging technologies, strategic stability, second-strike capability, full-spectrum deterrence, asymmetric warfare

INDONESIAN-UNITED STATES DEFENSE COOPERATION IN THE PRESIDENT JOKO WIDODO ERA

Indonesan and the United States during the presidency of Joko Widodo from 2014 to 2019 as folows: Defense Cooporation In Arrangement of Capacity Building, Joint Exercise Of Indonesia And The United States; Military Law Workshop; Indonesia-US Security Dialogue (UISSD) XII On 1-2 September 2015; Defense Corporation Between Indonesia And The United States Under Confidence Building Measures (CBM) arragement; Bilateral Cooperation State Visit Between Indonesia an The United States; Cooperation Between The Defense Industry, The Transfer Of Conventional Weaponns; Education and Training. The factors are driving Indonesia’s Coorporation with The United States are: The long history of good reations both Indonesia and The United States; the same counter terrorism mission; while the inhibing factor is Indonesia’s preparation; both in terms of human resources or the system that Indonesia has, and there are also obstaces from The United States side, such as the goverment contuning to expain that the US cannot intervene in thecnology transfer process since the authority held by the corporatin, therefore the purchasing and selling process is strictly business to bussines.