Rising Strategic Instability and Declining Prospects for Nuclear Disarmament in South Asia – A Pakistani Perspective

Part 1 Been there, accomplished that - lessons from experience: US nonproliferation policy - lessons learned from our experience with Iraq and North Korea, Ambassador Robert L. Gallucci detecting cheating on nonproliferation regimes - lessons from our Iraqi experience, Dr David A. Kay. Part 2 Victories for nonproliferation: the utility of nuclear weapons - tradeoffs and opportunity costs, Dr James E. Doyle and Col. Peter Engstrom can proliferation be stopped? a look at events and decisions in the mid-1990s, Leonard S. Spector factors in the decisions by Argentina and Brazil to accept the nonproliferation regime, Dr John R. Redick nuclear rollback - understanding South Africa's denuclearization decision, David Albright why Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons - nonproliferation incentives and disincentives, Dr William C. Martel. Part 3 Proliferation battlegrounds: nuclear leakage from the post-Soviet states, Dr William C. Potter nuclear proliferation and nuclear reversal in South Asia, Dr Neil Joeck nuclear proliferation issues and prospects in the Middle East, Dr William L. Dowdy the logic of nuclear proliferation - a look at Persian Gulf states, Dr A.F Mullins Jr. Part 4 Progress toward nuclear arms control and disarmament: US nuclear disarmament and restrictions in the 1990s, Edward T. Fei and Adam M. Scheinman the 1995 NPT review conference - future implications, Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr Russian nuclear disarmament and restrictions in the 1990s, Dr Oleg A. Bukharin French nuclear disarmament and restrictions in the 1990s, Therese Delpech British nuclear disarmament and restrictions in the 1990s, Stephen J. Willmer Chinese proliferation bureaucracies, Lt-Col Kevin F. Donovan USAF. Part 5 Specialized NGOs and public assistance to nonproliferation: the role of NGOs in nuclear nonproliferation efforts, Ben Sanders a limited nuclear-weapons-free-zone for Northeast Asia? Dr John Endicott the DOE Co-operative Monitoring Center - achieving comparative security objectives through technical collaborations, Dr Arian L. Pregenzer. Part 6 Counterproliferation - confronting WMD opponents: US counterproliferation efforts - prevent, deter, defend, Dr William J. Perry Secretary of Defense 1994-97 weapons of mass destruction and national security in the post-Cold War world, General Charles A. Horner consequences of the spread of weapons of precise destruction, Dr David G. Blair military responses to proliferation threats, Dr Barry R Schneider.

Confidence-Building Measures (CBMS), also known as Trust and Confidence-Building Measures (TCBMs) or Confidence and Security-Building Measures (CSBMs)—are useful to help improve mutual trust and overall security environment. CBMs could be in the conventional, nuclear, or any other field and could include communication, constraints, transparency and verification measures. India and Pakistan, in the past, have engaged in bilateral dialogue process that led to the negotiations of various nuclear CBMs and helped build trust and confidence between the two regional adversaries. Nevertheless, India’s shifting security orientation and its reluctance to engage with Pakistan in the CBMs process has made it difficult to discuss new measures between the two countries. Notwithstanding the current stalemate, it may be useful to revisit the history of CBMs process between India and Pakistan to help understand different priorities and the approaches maintained by both countries and for developing new approaches that could help build confidence between the two nuclear adversaries.

It has been 50 years since the adoption of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which established the obligation upon all States Parties to work towards nuclear disarmament under Article VI. Yet, despite extensive reductions in nuclear weapons stockpiles since the Cold War peaks, nuclear arms control and disarmament efforts are currently in disarray. After the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was terminated in 2019, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty remains as the only bilateral limitation on United States (US) and Russian nuclear forces in operation and is due to expire in February 2021. The US has justified its limited nuclear disarmament progress on the premise that the current international security environment is not conducive to further nuclear disarmament. Instead, the US has recently promoted a new initiative called Creating an Environment for Nuclear Disarmament (CEND). The initiative aims to provide a platform for all States to engage in constructive dialogue to identify ways to improve the international security environment, which make nuclear deterrence necessary while addressing the hurdles that currently impede progress towards nuclear disarmament. Significantly, the US regards CEND as an ‘effective measure’ and an illustration of its commitment towards disarmament under Article VI. This article seeks to address the US claim that CEND represents a good faith, effective measure towards nuclear disarmament pursuant to Article VI. This will revisit existing doctrinal interpretative debates concerning the obligation under Article VI, particularly the requirements that negotiations and measures be adopted in good faith, and what constitutes an effective measure towards nuclear disarmament. The discussion will then determine whether the CEND initiative itself can be considered a good faith, effective measure towards nuclear disarmament, by considering its purpose, origins and implementation, and actions of the US.

Walter Lippmann in his 1922 classic “Public Opinion” noted that “the news media are a primary source of those pictures in our heads about the larger world of public affairs, a world that for most citizens is “out of reach, out of sight, out of mind.” Indeed, among the different roles that the mass media performs is one of an information provider and interpreter of world events and policy decisions. The power of the mass media to mould public opinion on issues of national and international significance is well documented. Our knowledge and priorities about public affairs are based on what the media decides to feed us with. In this context, the present chapter seeks to analyze the crucial role essayed by the mass media in ensuring human security by promoting favorable public opinion toward the cause of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. S. Rashid Naim enunciates in “Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia” that a nuclear attack between India and Pakistan even limiting itself to military targets would cause approximately 577,000 deaths in Pakistan and 604,000 deaths in India apart from substantial number of injuries and destruction of property. The knowledge about this impending havoc should reach the grassroots level and this can be accomplished only by the mass media. With global efforts being channelized toward nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, the media and its trend-setting abilities can be harnessed to enlighten the average public about the disasters of a nuclear war. As the role of the mass media becomes more prominent in managing conflicts all over the world, the time is ripe to utilize its immense powers to dilute the level of possible nuclear clashes. A more proactive role of the media is envisioned through the establishment of a “global communication center” dedicated to the publication and broadcast of information advocating the cause of total nuclear disarmament. This center will be the locus of information dissemination and advocacy directed toward nations that possess nuclear weapons and those that are likely to get their hands on them in the near future. While the mass media is certainly not the only actor in the process of nuclear disarmament, it can be a decisive force for nations to choose between “atom for peace” or “atom for war.”

Geopolitical tensions in Southern Asia are characterized by shared borders, major territorial disputes, history of wars, political volatility and instability. This fraught dynamic is compounded by China–India–Pakistan nuclear relations or the nuclear “trilemma” which is shaped by military developments, threat perceptions, as well as alliance, adversary and deterrence relations between the three nuclear-armed states. To mitigate the growing risks in Southern Asia and the impact across the Asia-Pacific, the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament and the Toda Peace Institute have collaborated on a research project to map the contours of the China–India–Pakistan nuclear trilemma. The series of articles published in this special issue of the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament is a selection of nine papers commissioned for the project that address different aspects of the trilemma, examining bilateral, trilateral and plurilateral drivers; exploring practical nuclear risk reduction, crisis stability and confidence building measures and a potential nuclear restraint regime; and identify mechanisms and opportunities for tension reduction and conflict resolution in order to normalize interstate relations and promote people-people ties.

Organizational culture plays a significant role in corporations. The introduction of new technologies creates significant changes and requires the contribution of an efficient organizational culture to produce positive results. The use of the various typologies of organizational culture can assist managers to identify the type of culture that is present in the organization and can provide useful guidelines on how to adapt to or change the existing culture, in order to make it more effective, particularly when introducing new technologies. Goffee and Jones (1996, 2003), based on the concepts of sociability and solidarity, proposed four types of culture: (a) networked, (b) mercenary, (c) communal, and (d) fragmented. This paper examines the development of these concepts and types of culture in a state-owned organization in Greece, following the organization’s decision to introduce significant new technologies. This organization had a unique blend of characteristics. Quantitative research was conducted using a questionnaire compiled specifically for this case. Factor analysis was used for statistical analysis of the data. While the introduction of new technologies was successfully completed, the findings of this study highlight certain features of sociability and solidarity and the types of culture that contain them, which have contributed to the successful introduction and adoption of new technologies.

The main objective of this study is to validate the market variations and the adoption of disruptive technologies effects on Drilling Operations through the analysis of Directional Difficulty Index (DDI) for historical and current wells with a common framework, allowing demonstrating the variations caused by the deployment of disruptive technologies as well as the impact of the market behavior. The methodology used here is predicated upon three main steps: First, historical drilling data for exploration and development wells for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company Offshore has been evaluated using the Definitive Survey listings. Second, this data has been correlated against the market historical data and with the introduction of disruptive new technologies that have dramatically changed the technical limit as well as in the standard operational practices has been observed. Third, a detailed analysis has been made of the correlations of market and introduction of technologies with their impact in the complexity of the wells. The study is an attempt to document correlation of the following elements to the main parameter analysed i.e. the directional difficulty index: Oil and gas market behaviour towards a direct impact in the complexity of the wells drilled:▪ During market downturn, the complexity of the wells is reduced▪ During the market uptick, the complexity of the wells increasedIntroduction of new disruptive technologies have a direct impact in the complexity of the wells, we focused on three technologies that changed the traditional practices increasing the technical limit, and its effect on the directional difficulty indexTwo additional observations were considered relating to the directional complexity index:▪ The development stage of the field: green or mature and its effect on the complexity of the wells▪ The field structure which determine the development strategy: i.e. drive line or rim developments and its effect on the complexity of the wells This study involving market behaviour, the introduction of new technologies and how they affect the directional difficulty index is a maiden attempt in its league; determining this correlation helps to better address the influence of these elements in long term strategic planning and predict change. In addition, if the findings associate the development stage of the field and the field structure with the directional difficulty index, this opens the door for future studies to better determine their influence.

This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the South Asian region to assess future challenges for sustainable peace and stability. Under the core principles of the security dilemma, this book analyzes the prevailing security environment in South Asia and offers unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral frameworks to stabilize peace and ensure deterrence stability in the South Asian region. Moreover, contending patterns of deterrence dynamics in the South Asian region are further elaborated as becoming inextricably interlinked with the broader security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region and the interactions with the United States and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. As India and Pakistan are increasingly becoming part of the competing strategies exercised by the United States and China, the authors analyze how strategic uncertainty and fear faced by these rival states cause the introduction of new technologies which could gradually drift these competing states into more serious crises and military conflicts. Presenting innovative solutions to emerging South Asian challenges and offering new security mechanisms for sustainable peace and stability, this book will be of interest to academics and policymakers working on Asian Security studies, Nuclear Strategy, and International Relations.

Introduction A.Sevak - A Time of Trouble, A Time of Need M.Krepon - Avoiding Nuclear War: Deterrence, Arms Control, and Confidence-Building in South Asia C.R.Mohan - Nuclear Issues for Pakistan and India: Myths and Realities P.Hoodbhoy - Mending Fences S.Ganguly - Confidence-Building Measures on the Siachen Glacier, Sir Creek and Wular Barrage A.G.Noorani - Managing Internal Security Problems Through Confidence-Building Measures R.Thomas - Non-Military Confidence-Building Measures between Indian and Pakistan A.Elhance & M.Ahmar - Economic Confidence-Building Measures between India and Pakistan P.Barua - Enemy Images: The Media and Indo-Pakistani Tensions N.Chadha - Across the Himalayas: Confidence-Building Measures between India and China K.Bajpal & B.Coe - New Confidence-Building Measures between India and China Z.Weiwen & G.Deshingkar

The challenges in introducing new technologies or advanced innovations in the Operating Units of the E & P Companies are manifold and surprisingly it is not about a lack of ideas or missing skilled staff at all. While the mandate for any E & P company is to innovate or to lag behind, often the attempts of introducing new technologies and innovations do not succeed due to factors that were left out either at the planning or at the execution stage. On the other side in the Operating Units (OUs) often the subject is associated to an alien technology team coming from the Head Quarter offices, that is in charge of it and once they get the required data or complete the test they will be gone, thus missing the purpose of promoting and establishing an innovations friendly culture inside the organization. The smooth introduction of new technologies and innovations to overcome specific technical or operational requirement does not necessarily happen because the management has decided to do it or somebody outside the organization is pursuing that. Instead it requires following a tailor suited approach as creative processes are the result of well motivated staff rather than of a decree. Hereby an approach is proposed based on Three Key Factors and Seven Components to effectively introduce Innovations and New Technologies. The Key Factors are: The Prevailing Creative Energy Flow, The Alignment to the Company Goals, The first one is related to the dynamical interactions underlying the site/area/organization where the technology or innovation is pursuit. It is based on the fact that in every OU of an E & P Company that is delivering on a yearly production target there is a prevailing energy flow that already contains a great deal of creativity to cope with the dynamical changes of the oil and gas reservoirs and the operations. It is about recognizing this energy flow, its influencing factors, main actors, stream direction, etc. in order to be able to first get attached to it and then to steer it accordingly. The second one is about getting fully aligned to the specific company goals so that the innovation or technology is supported by all the stake holders. Further it is also about properly cascading down the company goals and to establish a mechanism that promotes effective participation of the staff, in both forms, as individuals and as a team. The last one is about being fully aware of the Main Components of the Technology and Innovation Life Cycle that beyond the technical also involves organizational, strategically, operationally and human resource aspects. The use of the proposed approach is shown in specific field case examples that document its effectiveness. Considering the specific features of the above elements will be reflected in shorter times from the idea generation to the field implementation. Moreover it enables a workflow that effectively encourages the participation of everybody in the organization in the introduction of new innovative ideas and Technologies thus supporting a continuous improvement mode and a shift to an innovations friendly organization.

Health care technology assessment and transfer

[ 152 ] asia policy Author’s Response: The Subject—Nuclear Weapons and Security in 21st Century Asia, not Nuclear Choices, Proliferation, or Nonproliferation Policy Muthiah Alagappa My thanks to the reviewers for contributing to this roundtable. I would like to preface my response with two general points. First, the two books under review differ substantially in purpose and scope. Nuclear Logics seeks “to help understand why states seek or renounce nuclear weapons” (p. ix), focusing on non-nuclear East Asian and Middle Eastern states that seek or do not seek nuclear weapons. The Long Shadow, on the other hand, seeks “to develop a deep understanding in comparative perspective of the purposes and roles assigned to nuclear weapons in the security thinking and practice of relevant states and to explore their implications for regional security, stability, and conflict resolution” in a dramatically altered international security and nuclear environment with a focus on Asia (p. 22). The Asian security region is defined broadly to include Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia; the United States; Russia; Australia; and tentatively the Middle East. Inquiry in The Long Shadow is not limited to states that may or may not seek nuclear weapons. Importantly, the book investigates the nuclear roles and strategies of all states that possess nuclear weapons and of those non–nuclear weapons states that are allied with nuclear weapons states, as well as the acquisition prospects and the possible roles in which nonstate actors may employ nuclear weapons. Although informed by certain concepts and theories, The Long Shadow does not seek to test particular hypotheses or advance a causal explanation. The book is by design an empirical study to develop a firm foundation for subsequent conceptual and theoretical work. Second, The Long Shadow is not about nonproliferation or disarmament. Although the findings of the study have implications for both issues and I do tease out some of these in my concluding chapters, a primary purpose of the study is to provide an alternative perspective to the nonproliferation and nuclear disarmament discourses that have tended to dominate discussion of nuclear weapons in the United States. There is little doubt that WMD proliferation continues to be a crucial security concern, and some believe that muthiah alagappa is Distinguished Senior at the East-West Center. He can be reached at . note u The author would like to thank Mark Borthwick, Charles Morrison, and James Wirtz for their comments on an earlier version of this response. [ 153 ] book review roundtable • nuclear logics & the long shadow nuclear disarmament should be an urgent goal of humanity. These are not the only lenses through which to view nuclear weapons, however. A substantial number of states of all stripes continue to attach value to the security roles of their nuclear arsenals. The management and control of nuclear weapons requires that we understand the roles such weapons perform or are deemed to perform. The ethics of responsibility requires us to address the roles and implications of nuclear weapons in all their dimensions. Thus, a security perspective that attaches importance to but does not prejudge the salience of nuclear weapons in national security strategies intentionally girds inquiry in The Long Shadow. Taking seriously the security rationales advanced by nuclear weapons states, including the United States, does not imply uncritical acceptance of the party line. It is thus unfortunate that concern with proliferation has dominated the reviews. An excessive focus on proliferation and a failure to recognize the substantial differences in the purpose and scope of the books under review have prevented reviewers (except for Christopher Ford) from direct and substantial engagement with the main propositions advanced in The Long Shadow. In fact, if a reader were only to rely on the reviews, he or she would be misinformed of the purpose and the key propositions advanced in the book. In light of the above I will limit my response to a few specific points: the logic of zero; the United States and nuclear disarmament; nuclear weapons, security, and stability; and the supposedly “underwhelming” and “contradictory” nature of my proposal for a new nuclear order. Logic of Zero Deepti Choubey contends that the January 2007 op-ed essay by the “four horsemen”—George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, William...

While irreversibility of nuclear arms control and disarmament measures can be supported by compliance with applicable legal norms, the existing treaty regulation has serious gaps: pertinent treaties are not universally applicable; limitations on missiles as important carriers of nuclear warheads have been abrogated; the strategic doctrines of nuclear weapons powers are not fully transparent, and while the latter may strengthen the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence, it also raises questions as to compliance with fundamental obligations to refrain from a threat or use of force and to settle international disputes by peaceful means. There are certain principles of general international law that can and should be used in international cooperation to overcome nuclear crisis situations and strengthen international security: fundamental norms regarding the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament under strict and effective international control have an erga omnes character and are accepted and recognized by the international community of States as a whole. Furthermore, general rules of international responsibility are fully applicable in the law of nuclear arms control and disarmament. It is in this sense that irreversibility in nuclear arms control and disarmament is served by legal principles and rules, which require States to comply with existing obligations and to cooperate for the maintenance of peace and security.

International Relations Theory and the India–Pakistan Conflict

This dissertation evolves a theoretical framework of the concept of Confidence Building Measures and applies it to the case-study of India Pakistan relations in the South Asia region. Part I examines the Confidence Building Measures in a global regional perspective. It outlines a theoretical framework of Confidence Building Measures by putting forward an appropriate definition of this concept and conceptualising the confidence building process in a model. It explores the empirical universe of Confidence Building Measures on a global scale in a conflict and crisis framework, in terms of its functional dimensions and at different levels of analysis. This provides a conceptual and empirical backdrop for an examination of Confidence Building Measures in the South Asian region. Part II studies the trends of conflict and cooperation in India-Pakistan relations in the first two decades after independence in 1947 and sets the stage for a more formal reconciliation process between the two countries in the post-Simla Agreement (1972) period. It also examines the operational variables given in the Indian and Pakistani political milieu that shape their bilateral confidence building process. Part III presents a detailed analysis of the India-Pakistan confidence building process in its political, military, economic and socio-cultural dimensions in the last two decades. The core issues of India-Pakistan conflict, the Kashmir conflict and Pakistan's alleged involvement in supporting terrorism in the Indian states of Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir have also been discussed. Part IV summarizes the major findings and conclusions of the study and puts forward some suggestions which may facilitate the confidence building process between India and Pakistan. The dissertation has relied on information gathered from the field work research carried out in India and Pakistan in Winter 1991-1992.