Coal Demand Research Articles

To Solve the Challenges of Coal Export Issues by Marine Terminals in the Primorsky Region by Analysis of Cargo Handling Technology

since 2010, the stevedoring companies in the Primorsky region have been actively increasing the volumes of coal handling due to growing demand for coal production (in 2.5 times) in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.At ¼ 2020, in the context of the stagnation of the global economy, the demand for coal remained stable in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Thus, in order to maintain the positions of the Russian Federation in the coal markets of the Asia-Pacific region countries, it is necessary to have due understanding of the handling capacities efficiency, the quality of coal processing services and the environmental impact in the seaports of the Primorsky region. Despite the fact that the closed coal handling technology at the specialized coal terminal used by JSC «Vostochny Port» is considered the most effective, the most local stevedoring companies use non-specialized coal handling technology by clamshells.

Comparison Of Vietnam And Poland coal resources & coal demand in the past and how it will change in future

The article in individual chapters discuss domestic coalresources in Poland and Vietnam, types of coal occurrence in bothcountries, the processing status and main domestic mining companies. Thelast part will be a comparison of mining prospects and plans for thedevelopment of coal mining in both countries and a summary of positivepractices in both countries.

Impact of Sustainable Development and Environmental Protection on the Volume of Domestic Hard Coal Sales in Poland

The paper presents the results of an analysis of the impact of activities related to the implementation of Poland’s climate policy on the level of demand for hard coal. The authors used sets of indicators built by Eurostat during the analysis. The analysis was based on a set of indicators that had not previously been used for this purpose. The applied ARAMAX model made it possible to study the impact of the presented indicators on the volume of demand for hard coal in Poland. They were introduced to the ARMAX model as explanatory variables. The demand for hard coal in Poland was the dependent variable. The set of indicators was verified, and finally only statistically significant factors were used to build the model. The forecast of the demand for hard coal was made until 2022. It showed that the volume of coal sales would systematically fall as long as factors affecting demand remain constant. However, an additional factor was taken into account in the analysis, namely the increase in demand and prices for hard coal on world markets. The ARIMA model was used to forecast price levels for the next 12 months. The forecast indicates that the time series of prices should maintain an upward trend within the examined time period. Building an accurate and reliable forecast is the basis for effective planning of coal production and is adjusted to the demand for this fuel.

Impact of COVID-19 on China's coal imports: effects and solutions

This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on China's coal import trade. First , this paper makes a qualitative analysis of the status quo of China's coal import scale before and after COVID-19. Second, the impact of the pandemic on China's coal import was estimated by panel VAR model based on the confirmed global COVID-19 data and China's coal import data with Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering database and Wind database from January 2019 to June 2021. The result shows that the pandemic has a significant impact on both the supply and demand of China's coal industry in short term. There is a rebound in coal demand due to manufacturing industries having resumed work and production under the successful pandemic control in China. Finally, this paper analyzes the measures of China's coal import process during the COVID-19 and suggests how to deal with the global public crisis in the future.

ПОВЫШЕНИЕ КОНКУРЕНТОСПОСОБНОСТИ УГОЛЬНОЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ ПУТЕМ БОЛЕЕ ГЛУБОКОЙ ПЕРЕРАБОТКИ СЫРЬЯ

The increase in demand for coal over the past two years has opened up good prospects for Russian mining companies. The growth of production is hampered by the insufficient capacity of transport corridors, and the extensive development of transport infrastructure against the backdrop of an unstable economy and low tariffs for coal transportation is not profitable. For the effective strategic development of the coal industry, the transport problem is proposed to be solved in close conjunction with the development of coal chemistry. Products of deep coal processing require less transport, they have a lower share of transport costs in the final cost. The article argues that this approach will increase the production and export of coal without a proportional increase in traffic volumes.

Экспортная специализация топливно-энергетического комплекса Дальневосточного федерального округа: влияние санкционных ограничений

The article considers the role of the eastern vector of supplies in Russia’s foreign energy strategy. It is shown that the strengthening of the priority of the development of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Far East. The share of the Far Eastern energy recourses in Russian export flows increased. The share of the Far East in Russian energy export to the countries of NEA-3 where from 28.6 to 52.8% in 2021. Three main periods of sanctions restrictions on the Russian fuel and energy complex were distinguished: 2014–2016, 2017–2021 and 2022. The 1st period characterized by deterioration in access to technologies for the development of unconventional oil. Within the 2nd period, existing sanctions were expanded and restrictions to Russian pipeline projects were added. The 3d period characterized by sanctions on all sectors of the fuel and energy complex, an embargo on the supply of Russian energy resources, affecting the supply and maintenance of equipment under current contracts. The scope of the sanctions of the NEA-3 countries varied. Japan has joined the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union in the financial and economic, trade, technological, and transport sectors. The Republic of Korea has joined the sanctions in financial and economic areas. China has not officially joined the sanctions against Russia, but complies with the restrictions imposed by the United States, the violation of which implies the imposition of secondary sanctions. The dynamics of exports of Russian energy resources in 2022 for the main commodity items of the fuel and energy complex is analyzed on the import statistics of the NEA-3 countries. It is shown that there was a decrease in demand for Russian oil due to the refusal of large oil and gas companies of the NEA-3 countries from spot purchases, a reduction in oil supplies to Japan and the Republic of Korea due to the shutdown of the «Sakhalin-1» project, demand for coal had a multidirectional character (reduction of exports to Japan, growth to China and the Republic of Korea)

Multiagent-Based Modeling and Simulation of a Coal Multimodal Transport System

With the change in coal supply and demand, the dynamics of multiple transit nodes and the connection between different transportation modes make the Coal Multimodal Transportation System (CMTS) more complicated in the long-distance transportation of coal. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the multimodal transportation nodes, build a coal multimodal transportation model, measure the network throughput through simulation experiments, and identify system bottlenecks. The CMTS is a complex nonlinear dynamic system with many participants with complex and uncertain links. Different transportation modes, operation links, and connection processes will affect system performance, and modeling and simulation technology effectively study complex dynamic systems. This paper takes the CMTS as the research object, uses agent-based modeling methods and Witness simulation software to analyze the composition and operation mechanism of CMTS, establishes the multiagent model of CMTS, and validates the model by a Witness simulation experiment of northern coal shipped to south. The simulation results indicate the capacity of the transport route and resource utilization of nodes in CMTS in case of different demand growth rates in the future. Based on the multiagent model andWitness simulation results, this paper provides practical support for constructing and applying the multimodal transport system model library and provides the basis for decision-making for the CMTS plan.

International Energy Agency and U.S. Economic Policy

The article is devoted to the activities of International Energy Agency (IEA) on the background of the United States economic policy. The IEA was founded in 1974 to develop a collective response of Western countries to major disruptions in the supply of oil. The key purpose of International Energy Agency was to coordinate energy policy of developed countries and to limit activities of petroleum exporting countries. Some reasons for international energy markets regulations are being discussed in the article. For the last decades International Energy Agency is at the center of global dialogue on energy, providing authoritative analysis, data, policy recommendations, and real-world solutions to help countries provide secure and sustainable energy resources. In spite of this fact there are some serious contradictions between member countries. While oil security remains a key aspect of its work, the IEA has evolved and expanded significantly since its foundation. The IEA recommends policies that enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy. It examines the full spectrum issues including renewables, oil, gas and coal supply and demand, energy efficiency, clean energy technologies, electricity systems and markets, access to energy, demand-side management, and much more. Some aspects of President Biden administration energy policy are being discussed in the article. The article covers major trends of structural changes in US energy consumption during 2010 – 2020. Statistical analysis shows that oil and natural gas industries have very insignificant effects on US gross domestic product. Political sanctions against Russia continue to impact global energy demand. Current situation on the global oil market is being analyzed.

Перспективы развития топливно-энергетического комплекса Дальнего Востока в условиях энергоперехода

The paper analyzes the prerequisites for the export-oriented development of the fuel and energy complex of the Far East of Russia. The author summarizes the largest projects planned for implementation in the mining sectors of the complex, the prospects for the development of technological sectors are reviewed: the introduction of renewable energy sources and the creation of a new industry – hydrogen energy. It is shown that the optimistic forecasts of demand for coal in world markets and the development of projects in the industry, accompanied by more than 2-fold increase in production, are contrary to the trends of the energy transfer. At the same time, the negative effects of the strategy for the development of the fuel and energy complex are redistributed in favor of the federal center

The prospects for decarbonisation in the context of reported resources and energy policy goals: The case of Poland

The European Union climate and energy policy obliges Member States to abandon the consumption of fossil fuels. Poland remains one of the very few European countries where the importance of coal in the economy is still maintained through political decision. Yet it faces the challenge of energy transition that will inevitably lead to a reduction in domestic coal exploitation and, in consequence, mine closures. The steps in the decarbonisation roadmap should take into account both economic criteria (resources, profitability of mining) and social issues, due to the loss of a significant number of jobs in the mining sector. This paper aims to present the assumptions on the decommissioning of mines in the context of the resources reported and mining licences granted. Moreover, these decisions are assessed in relation to the announced goals of Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 (EPP document) in which steam coal demand is forecast for two cases (high and low) depending on the prices of CO2 emission allowances. The objective of the paper is to critically analyse the assumptions of this document in the context of the established schedule of mine decommissioning. The schedule was agreed with the social side in September 2020. The analysis shows that the conditions of that agreement will have to be renegotiated and the closing date of several mines will need to be brought forward. Oversupply of coal occurs both with the implementation of the case of high demand and of low demand for steam coal announced in the Energy Policy for Poland document.

Социально-экономические проблемы развития города Сулюкта (Кыргызстан) в годы независимости (1991-2020 гг.)

The article deals with the social-economic development of the city of Sulyukta. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, embarked on the path of perestroika. Economic and political difficulties are leading to major economic changes in the region. These changes have changed the economy, society and culture. The social-economic crisis throughout the post-Soviet region had a negative impact on all industries, including manufacturing. The crisis greatly affected the coal production of the city of Sulyukta. In the last years of Soviet power, especially in the first years of independence, coal production in Sulyukta fell sharply. The main reasons for this were the breakdown of old economic ties, the demands of new market conditions and low demand for coal. In this context, the economic situation in the city of Sulyukta has worsened.

Impact Of Sales Growth And Company Size Towards Financial Structure

The research examines impacts of sales growth and company size to financial structure. Research conducted at firms in mining industries which go public in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Data were analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The results of the research show that the sales growth and company size positively affect the firms’ financial structure in the mining sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Sales growth variable has significant effect while company size has no significant effect to financial structure. Furthermore, during the last three years between 2013-2015, sales growth and the company size of mining sector companies continue to decline. This is due to the decline in world coal prices followed by slowing demand for coal and crude oil. Consequently, policy makers and managers of mining industries should consider sales growth and company size in arranging the company financial structure. They can use based on these findings, especially more attention on sales growth to manage that financial structure

Multi-objective optimization on total cost and carbon dioxide emission of coal supply for coal-fired power plants in Indonesia

Indonesian coal is distributed in several islands, such as Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua. Most of them are classified as low and medium rank coal, which is very suitable for coal-fired power plants. In the future, domestic coal demand will increase, driven by the government plans to increase the electricity generation capacity and primary energy demand. In the existing scheme, only a coal mining company whose coal quality is an exact match with the coal-fired power plant specification can be selected as a supplier, without considering a blending mechanism. This condition may have some issues for long-term supply, as the coal will be exhausted in time and tends to come at a high cost. To improve the decision making for securing the long-term coal demand for electricity generation, optimization with coal blending should be considered. This research includes the consideration of the coal quality parameters; the power plant's requirement criteria; the location of the coal-blending facility; and ship types. A multi-objective optimization using mixed-integer linear programming, consisting of linear inequalities in binary and continuous variables as the constraints, is introduced to find the optimal solution, with cost and carbon dioxide emission as the objective functions. Several scenarios, which are the baseline condition, chartered ship, and environmental consciousness, will be analyzed. The results obtained by using the epsilon-constraint method show the benefits of the proposed schemes and scenarios, which are able to secure long-term demand with a more flexible solution, and reduce the total cost and carbon dioxide emission. Furthermore, considering the parameter setting and modeling, the optimization can be considered as applicable for solving similar problems related to the transportation selection and supply chain for similar commodities in the greater area.

A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines

Due to the withdrawal of coal from power generation in the EU, mining companies in Poland are forced to adapt their production to the decreasing demand. Forecasting the volume of demand plays an important role in planning the volume of the mine’s output. The demand for coal is constantly changing, with a downward trend. This article presents a method that allows to assess the impact of the variable demand on mine profits and on the volumes of sales of individual coal grades. The proposed method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and on a solution consisting of the optimization of the production and sales of coal by the mining company (the SIMPLEX algorithm). By using the Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the demand, unlike other commonly used methods, a sufficiently large set of real situations that may occur in the future can be obtained. The results allow us to conclude the extent of desirable adjustment of the structure of the mine’s production to the requirements of its consumers, as well as to predict in which direction these changes will proceed and with what probability. The usefulness of the developed method has been verified on the example of an existing hard coal mine.

Analysis of potential effects of renewable energy policy

Korea has announced its goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 by accelerating its shift toward renewable energy. We examined the effects of increasing renewable energy use on the demands for fossil fuels and the power supply price for the Korean electric power generation sector. Using the estimated price elasticities of demand between energy inputs, we can calculate that a 1% increase in renewable energy would lead to a 0.06%, 0.35%, and 0.17% lower demand for coal, oil, and gas, respectively, ceteris paribus, possibly resulting in a potential CO2 reduction by as much as 0.173 × 106 tons in total. The null hypothesis of no contribution of increasing renewable energy on power generation costs was rejected. The simulation results show that renewable energy generation costs did not increase sufficiently to cause the power supply price to rise significantly over the period 2000–2015.

Commercial Energy Demand Forecasting in Bangladesh

Although both aggregate and per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is increasing rapidly, its per capita consumption is still one of the lowest in the world. Bangladesh gradually shifted from petroleum-based energy to domestically sourced natural-gas-based energy sources, which are predicted to run out within next two decades. The present study first identified the determinants of aggregate commercial energy and its three major components of oil, natural gas, and coal demand for Bangladesh using a simultaneous equations framework on an annual database covering a period of 47 years (1972–2018). Next, the study forecast future demand for aggregate commercial energy and its three major components for the period of 2019–2038 under the business-as-usual and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic scenarios with some assumptions. As part of a sensitivity analysis, based on past trends, we also hypothesized four alternative GDP and population growth scenarios and forecast corresponding changes in total energy demand forecast. The results revealed that while GDP and lagged energy demand are the major drivers of energy demand in the country, we did not see strong effects of own- and cross-price elasticities of energy sources, which we attributed to three reasons: subsidized low energy prices, time and cost required to switch between different energy-mix technologies, and suppressed energy demand. The aggregate energy demand is expected to increase by 400% by the end of the forecasting period in 2038 from its existing level in 2018 under the business-as-usual scenario, whereas the effect of COVID-19 could suppress it down to 300%. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the highest increase will occur for coal (3.94-fold), followed by gas (2.64-fold) and oil (2.37-fold). The COVID-19 pandemic will suppress the future demand of all energy sources at variable rates. The ex ante forecasting errors were small, varying within the range of 3.6–3.7% of forecast values. Sensitivity analysis of changes in GDP and population growth rates showed that forecast total energy demand will increase gradually from 3.58% in 2019 to 8.79% by 2038 from original forecast values. Policy recommendations include capacity building of commercial energy sources while ensuring the safety and sustainability of newly proposed coal and nuclear power installations, removing inefficiency of production and distribution of energy and its services, shifting towards renewable and green energy sources (e.g., solar power), and redesigning subsidy policies with market-based approaches.

Study on the driving factors and regulation mode for coal production capacity

Coal production capacity regulation is a complex system involving economic growth, structural optimization, high-efficiency mining, and environmental protection. Based on its driving factors, this paper forms four regulation modes representing different control orientations, establishes a system dynamics model, and predicts the regulation effects of single-factor and combined control mode. The result shows: (1) Except for the mechanization degree and recovery rate, the other nine individual production capacity control policies are all conducive to reducing coal production capacity and restraining the excessive growth of coal production capacity. (2) The effect of combined regulation mode on slowing down the growth of coal demand, regulating the excessive growth of coal production capacity and new capacity investment are obviously better than that of single policy. (3) The combined control modes have obvious differences in the suppression effect on coal production capacity: transformational development mode > technology-driven mode > structural optimization mode > efficiency improvement mode. Therefore, in the process of achieving optimal regulation of coal production capacity, attention should be paid to the preferential use of transformational development and technology-driven mode. At the same time, the comprehensive use of regulation and control methods should also be considered to improve the regulation effect and the regulation efficiency of coal production capacity.

COVID-19, a double-edged sword for the environment: a review on the impacts of COVID-19 on the environment.

This review paper discusses the most relevant impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the environment. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The disease has infected 70 million people and caused the death of 1.58 million people since the US Food and Drug Administration issued an Emergency Use Authorization to develop a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 on December 11, 2020. COVID-19 is a global crisis that has impacted everything directly connected with human beings, including the environment. This review discusses the impacts of COVID-19 on the environment during the pandemic and post-COVID-19 era. During the first months of the COVID pandemic, global coal, oil, gas, and electricity demands declined by 8%, 5%, 2%, and 20%, respectively, relative to 2019. Stay-at-home orders in countries increased the concentrations of particles in indoor environments while decreasing the concentrations of PM2.5 and NOX in outdoor environments. Remotely working in response to the COVID-19 pandemic increased the carbon, water, and land footprints of Internet usage. Microplastics are released into our environment from the mishandling and mismanagement of personal protective equipment that endanger our water, soils, and sediments. Since the COVID-19 vaccine cannot be stored for a long time and spoils rapidly, more awareness of the massive waste of unused doses is needed. So COVID-19 is a double-edged sword for the environment.

Development of innovative technologies for deep mineral processing

The rate of industrial development depends not only on the demand for products that are outdated in terms of quality, but also on the possibility of updating the quality indicators of the raw material mass, matching the demand dynamics of the raw materials quality with the indicators corresponding to the future tasks. The transition of the world economy and energy to a low-carbon development trajectory reduces the demand for Russian coal, and therefore the near future of the coal industry is associated with fundamental changes in the requirements for the quality and variety of marketable products. There is an urgent need for technological renewal in coal enrichment, restoration and further development of coal chemistry. The paper highlights the key problems and trends in the field of deep coal enrichment, reveals the methods used in the processing plants of Kuzbass. The proposed technology of deep mineral processing “Carbon-99”, which received the support of the Skolkovo Innovation Center in 2021, is described. The Carbon-99 technology is a synthesis of technological solutions groups, which variety depends on the properties of the mineral groups included in a particular coal material: enrichment of rock mass cl. 2-200 mm, magnetic separation cl. 0-2 mm, enrichment of sludge masses-centrifugation cl. 0-0. 05 mm. It is shown that the proposed complex technology of deep coal enrichment will reduce the ash content in the concentrates of brown, coking and anthracite coals to 1-9%, and reduce the sulfur content by 30-70%. Reduction of moisture content in the coal mass, including dispersed materials. Also, to obtain concentrates of mineral groups extracted from the coal mass, without chemical reagents.

Situation on the Global Coal Market during the Recovery of the World Economy after the COVID-19 Crisis

The global economic recovery in 2021 will lead to a recovery in coal demand after a significant drop in 2020 caused by the Covid-19 crisis. There is no indication that the global coal consumption will decline significantly in the coming years, as increased demand in some Asian countries will offset declines in others. Based on the assumption of a global economic recovery, experts forecast a 2.6% growth in the global coal demand in 2021, driven by an increased demand for electricity and industrial production. The economies of China, India and Southeast Asia account for most of the growth. The future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. Today, China and India account for 65% of the world's coal demand. Taking into account Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia, this share rises to 75%. China will be particularly influential, as it currently accounts for half of the world's coal consumption. By 2025, the European Union and the United States will account for less than 10% of global coal demand, down from 37% in 2000.