Evaluation of Coal Supply and Demand Security in China and Associated Obstacle Factors

Abstract

In China, coal security issues are strongly linked to national energy security and economic and social stability. Facing environmental protection constraints, research on China’s coal security should analyze both supply and demand security. In this study, 19 criteria were selected for four subsystems (coal supply chain, coal market, economy and demographics, and social ecology) to construct an evaluation system for China‘s coal supply and demand security. Entropy and TOPSIS methods were used to evaluate coal security for 2002–2019. The obstacle factors affecting coal security for each subsystem were determined, and the grey model was used to predict the security and obstacle degree for each subsystem for 2020 and 2021. The results indicate that (1) China’s coal supply and use safety level in the period 2002–2019 was below a relatively safe level, i.e., at a safe early warning level during the period 2010–2014 and at a general safety level in the remaining years. (2) The basic coal reserves, the reserve-production ratio of the basic reserves, the balance of social coal stocks at the beginning and the end of the year, and the proportion of coal imports to consumption, urbanization rate, carbon dioxide emissions, and coal consumption in thermal power generation are the main obstacle factors that affect the safety of coal supply and use in China. (3) The obstacle degree of the coal production and supply evaluation subsystem is higher than that of the other three sub-systems, and the overall change trend during the study period showed a downward trend at first, followed by an upward trend.