Abstract
The paper presents the results of an analysis of the impact of activities related to the implementation of Poland’s climate policy on the level of demand for hard coal. The authors used sets of indicators built by Eurostat during the analysis. The analysis was based on a set of indicators that had not previously been used for this purpose. The applied ARAMAX model made it possible to study the impact of the presented indicators on the volume of demand for hard coal in Poland. They were introduced to the ARMAX model as explanatory variables. The demand for hard coal in Poland was the dependent variable. The set of indicators was verified, and finally only statistically significant factors were used to build the model. The forecast of the demand for hard coal was made until 2022. It showed that the volume of coal sales would systematically fall as long as factors affecting demand remain constant. However, an additional factor was taken into account in the analysis, namely the increase in demand and prices for hard coal on world markets. The ARIMA model was used to forecast price levels for the next 12 months. The forecast indicates that the time series of prices should maintain an upward trend within the examined time period. Building an accurate and reliable forecast is the basis for effective planning of coal production and is adjusted to the demand for this fuel.
Highlights
IntroductionAccess to energy is a prerequisite for the development of countries, both economically and socially
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of climate policy on the level of demand for domestic hard coal in Poland
In order to identify indicators influencing the demand for hard coal, they were entered into the ARMAX model
Summary
Access to energy is a prerequisite for the development of countries, both economically and socially. Access to energy is essential [1] for this development to take place in a sustainable manner. It must be produced in an environmentally friendly manner without a negative impact on the environment. It must be available at the time, place, and the amount that is needed, at a price acceptable to the consumer. A sustainable energy system should be based on renewable energy sources and heat, as well as efficient use of energy, reduction in energy demand, and cogeneration in energy production [2,3]
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