Climate Change Adaptation Planning Research Articles

A framework for reviewing laws and policies for climate resilience: the case of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

This article proposes a framework for reviewing to what extent laws and policies of a legal system support climate resilience. This article adopts the social-ecological system (SES) resilience theory and translates its core features into an operational framework which consists of four legal dimensions crucial for promoting climate resilience – adaptiveness of law, distributive justice, broad participation, and cross-scale interactions, and further identifies several indicators below each dimension. Then this article operationalizes the four legal dimensions via reviewing current Vietnamese climate adaptation laws and policies to assess to what extent they promote a climate-resilient Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). While various barriers can be found in the current legal framework and policies which impede climate resilience, the latest National Climate Change Adaptation Plan demonstrates great improvement in facilitating climate resilience in a just, participatory and coordinated manner.

Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Selected Caribbean Countries: Is Enough Being Done?

The climate is changing, and sustainable adaptation measures are required to meet the resulting challenges. Several effects linked to climate change can be highly disruptive, such as rising sea levels and coastal reef destruction. The severity of the impact and capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change is unevenly distributed at various spatial levels. The Caribbean is more vulnerable to climate change than other regions. There is a need to plan strategically in managing the multiple consequences of climate change. This study evaluates the synergies between adaptation plans and policies and guidelines in climate change adaptation. It attempts to audit the national adaptation planning documents in climate change developed by government agencies to cope with the challenges of climate change among respective countries. The study explores the factors underlying observed discrepancies and performance shortcomings and utilises information from a review of research literature to contextualise critical findings in adaptation measures and research. Synthesising the determinants and barriers would aid with closing performance gaps. The study concludes by providing evidence-based recommendations that shed light on the design and planning for sustainable adaptation measures in developing nations of the Caribbean.

The Durban Climate Change Strategy: Lessons learnt from the 2021 strategy review and implementation plan

Urban local governments are increasingly developing climate change adaptation plans. However, there is limited literature on climate change adaptation experiences of African cities, particularly with regard to moving from strategy development to implementation. This continues to hamper efforts to understand and guide city climate change actions on the continent. This article helps address this gap by providing critical insights into the opportunities and challenges experienced, and the solutions found in the process of developing and implementing the Durban Climate Change Strategy (DCCS) in the City of Durban, South Africa. The initial 2015 DCCS was reviewed in 2020/2021, and an analysis of the process and its outcomes provide useful focus areas that could guide other cities across the Global South and beyond for implementing climate change strategies. Based on these focus areas, the article demonstrates that there are considerable governance and other barriers to this process that span multiple scales, but also many opportunities such as good organisation, ongoing support across multiple departments and scales, and perseverance that can be harnessed. The findings have significant practical and policy implications for developing and implementing urban climate strategies and provide important conceptual insights for building transformative resilience in challenging governance contexts.

Asthma exacerbation due to climate change-induced wildfire smoke in the Western US

Climate change and human activities have drastically altered the natural wildfire balance in the Western US and increased population health risks due to exposure to pollutants from fire smoke. Using dynamically downscaled climate model projections, we estimated additional asthma emergency room visits and hospitalizations due to exposure to smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Western US in the 2050s. Isolating the amount of PM2.5 from wildfire smoke is both difficult to estimate and, thus, utilized by relatively few studies. In this study, we use a sophisticated modeling approach to estimate future increase in wildfire smoke exposure over the reference period (2003–2010) and subsequent health care burden due to asthma exacerbation. Average increases in smoke PM2.5 during future fire season ranged from 0.05 to 9.5 µg m−3 with the highest increases seen in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon. Using the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) A2 scenario, we estimated the smoke-related asthma events could increase at a rate of 15.1 visits per 10 000 persons in the Western US, with the highest rates of increased asthma (25.7–41.9 per 10 000) in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington. Finally, we estimated healthcare costs of smoke-induced asthma exacerbation to be over $1.5 billion during a single future fire season. Here we show the potential future health impact of climate-induced wildfire activity, which may serve as a key tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

Equity in Urban Climate Change Adaptation Planning: A Review of Research

A growing number of cities are preparing for climate change by developing adaptation plans, but little is known about how these plans and their implementation affect the vulnerability of groups experiencing various forms of underlying social inequity. This review synthesizes research exploring the justice and equity issues inherent in climate change adaptation planning to lay the foundation for critical assessment of climate action plans from an equity perspective. The findings presented illuminate the ways in which inequity in adaptation planning favours certain privileged groups while simultaneously denying representation and resources to marginalized communities. The review reveals the specific ways inequity is experienced by disadvantaged groups in the context of climate change and begins to unpack the relationship between social inequity, vulnerability, and adaptation planning. This information provides the necessary background for future research that examines whether, and to what extent, urban adaptation plans prioritize social vulnerability relative to economic and environmental imperatives.

Decarbonization of the Economy – the General Trend of Development of Russia and Its Regions in the 21st Century

Today the issue of Russia’s low-carbon development and the necessity in cutting down Greenhouse emissions, first of all, carbon dioxide (СO2) is very acute. Over the recent years a lot of documents and regulatory legal acts have appeared in Russia, one way or another related to the decarbonization of the economy, including “National Climate Change Adaptation Plan”, the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation “On Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, “Strategy for the Long-Term Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2050”, draft Federal Law “On State Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals”, “The Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy in Russia up to 2050”. Russia needs a network of carbon landfills, its own non-discriminatory system for measuring the balance of greenhouse gases, this is the most important factor of national security today. In the near future, the system of calculations will be worked out on the territory of seven regions: the Chechen Republic, the Krasnodar Krai, Kaliningrad, Sakhalin, Sverdlovsk, Novosibirsk and Tyumen Regions. Since 2020, a pilot project of a carbon landfill has been implemented in Kaluga Region, on lands located within the borders of the Ugra National Park. To finance these projects, it is necessary to attract funds from national projects, first of all, the NP “Clean Air”. Carbon farms are a complex of technologies that enable the absorption of greenhouse gases, and so far for Russia it is mainly forest rather than agricultural technologies. There are about 11 million square kilometers of forests in Russia, and this is a unique reservoir for absorbing CO2, so the 21st century is the century of Russia, which has every chance to become the most important player in the sequestration industry. It is fundamentally important for Russia to become a world leader and gain a high rate of carbon farms development throughout the country. However, there is an acute shortage of qualified personnel for this type of activity in the country, so one of the strategic tasks for Russian universities today is to train specialists for the new sequestration industry in the conditions of a new and inevitable reality – total decarbonization of the economy.

Flood Risk Analysis by Building Use in Urban Planning for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation

In this study, focusing on buildings as the smallest unit of urban space, the distribution characteristics of risk factors were examined by building use as an adaptable measure for urban flooding disasters. Flood risk is calculated as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The flood risk for a building was classified into five classes, and the distribution characteristics of buildings were examined according to England’s flood risk vulnerability classification system, known as Planning Policy Statement 25 (PPS25). After analyzing the risk of flooding in Ulsan Metropolitan City, one of Korea’s representative urban areas, it was found that while Dong-gu District can be considered relatively safe, districts of Jung-gu and Nam-gu, as well as Ulju-gun, have highly vulnerable buildings with red and orange ratings, which include motor vehicles-related facilities, education and welfare facilities, and residential facilities. There has been evidence to prove that urban flood disaster affects topography and the environment, in addition to having a significant effect on adaptability depending on the facility groups that resulted from urbanization. This study is expected to serve as a scientific database for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to floods during land-use planning, which would eventually allow for systematic management of high-risk buildings through verification of location suitability of buildings by facility group.

Leveraging cloud-based computing and spatial modeling approaches for land surface temperature disparities in response to land cover change: Evidence from Pakistan

Monitoring spatial-temporal land use land cover (LULC) patterns and related processes (e.g., land surface temperature—LST) is essential to sustainable development at local, regional, and national levels. In this context, the present study leverages cloud-computing-based Google Earth Engine and geo-information modelling techniques to provide spatial-temporal insights regarding LULC and LST over the past three decades (1990–2020) in Pakistan—a south Asian country with ∼212 million people. Additionally, using Punjab province (the most populous and developed in Pakistan) as the study area, we empirically evaluate the association between several LULC types (i.e., built-up, forests, agriculture, rangeland, barren, and water) and LST. Our results show that due to the transition from rangeland and agriculture LULC to built-up areas (contributing 38 and 37%, respectively), ∼250% increase is observed in the impervious surface in Punjab during 1990–2020. While the rapid urbanization has resulted in ∼8.5 percent annual increase in built-up area during the study period, the highest percent change (∼10.5%) occurred during the most recent decade (i.e., 2010–2020). This increase in built-up areas has led to LST rise with 1.4 °C increase in maximum annual LST in Punjab. In addition, among the evaluated top-20 cities, the most significant rise in LST is observed by Kasur city followed by Chiniot, Sheikhupura, Sahiwal, and Lahore—areas known for industrial development in Pakistan. While the results on LULC provide important references for rational and optimal utilization of land resource via policy implications, the association between LULC and LST ascertains why it is critical to design sustainable LULC planning and management practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The development process and significance of the 3rd National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2021–2025) of the Republic of Korea

The Republic of Korea has developed its 3rd National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2021–2025) through joint work between government departments in 2020. This follows the Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth, which was enacted in 2010. In this paper, we presented the development process, main contents, significance, and limitations of the 3rd Adaptation Plan as a helpful case for the international community to consult in formulating their national adaptation plans. The plan aims to implement a climate-safe nation with the people, and its development process features a scientific evidence basis and participation of various parties. It systematically and organically recommends 232 measures to be implemented by the Korean government and related departments for the next five years to enhance the adaptive capacity to 84 climate risks. Through expert forums, working council on climate change adaptation, adaptation governance forums, online public hearings, and discussion on preparing public-oriented countermeasures, 41 representative public-oriented tasks in eight sectors were selected. The plan consists of measures to resolve national climate risks constructed based on scientific evidence. All adaptation parties participated in the entire process of establishing the adaptation plan and evaluating its implementation. Significantly, the 3rd Adaptation Plan attempts to overcome the limitations of the 2nd adaptation plan by planning for the operation of a citizen evaluation group. However, the plan's limitations have been identified as insufficient willingness to monitor and implement measures, differences in the spectrum of adaptation measures by a government department, and lack of publicity in the English language. The measures to deal with these shortcomings are being sought.

Evaluation of observed and projected extreme climate trends for decision making in Six Nations of the Grand River, Canada

Hydrometeorological events have been the predominant type of natural hazards to affect communities across Canada. While climate change is a concern to all Canadians, Indigenous communities in Canada have been disproportionately more affected by these extreme climate events than non-Indigenous communities. As the impacts of climate change intensify, it becomes increasingly important that high-resolution climate services are made available to Indigenous decision makers for the development of climate change adaptation plans. This paper examined extreme climate trends in the Six Nations of the Grand River reserve, the most populated Indigenous community in Canada. A set of 12 indices were used to evaluate changes inextreme climate events from 1951 to 2013, and 2006 to 2099 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Results indicated that from 1951 to 2013, Six Nations became warmer and wetter with an average temperature increase of 0.7 °C and precipitation increase of 42 mm. Over this period, the frequency and duration of extreme heat and extreme precipitation eventsalso increased, while extreme cold events decreased. In the future (2006 to 2099), temperature is expected to increase by 3 to 6 °C, while seasonal precipitation is expected to increase in winter, early spring, and fall. Projected rate of increase of heatwaves is 0.4 to 1.5 days per year and extreme annual rainfall events is 0.2 to 0.5 mm per year under both RCP scenarios. The climate information and data provide by this study will help Six Nations’ decision makers in planning for climate change impacts.

Theoretical frameworks in climate change adaptation planning: a comparative study in coastal cities of developing countries1

Climate change adaptation has shifted from a single-dimension to an integrative approach that aligns with vulnerability and resilience concepts. Adaptation planning, correspondingly, is guided by three frameworks categorized as the hazard-based, the vulnerability-based, and the urban resilience framework. Exploring in which ways these frameworks affect the proposed adaptation initiatives is crucial for planners to justify the well-fit approach for adaptation planning. This study seeks to examine the influence of these theoretical frameworks on the formulation of adaptation initiatives with a sample of 45 coastal cities in developing countries. The vulnerability framework is found to tackle the issues of climate change sufficiently while the hazard-based approach shares resources for both climate change and other matters, and the urban resilience framework puts more effort into other issues rather than climate change. From these findings, the study offers implications for adaptation planning in applying each of these three frameworks.

Equity in human adaptation-related responses: A systematic global review

Equity in human adaptation-related responses: A systematic global review

Do governments track the implementation of national climate change adaptation plans? An evidence-based global stocktake of monitoring and evaluation systems

Although over 70 countries adopted a national climate change adaptation plan (NAP), little is known about the extent to which these plans are implemented. NAP monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems can play an important role in tracking implementation but have rarely been studied. Based on a systematic review including outreach to country representatives and international organizations, a comprehensive inventory of NAP M&E systems is compiled documenting government practices from over 60 countries. In contrast to previous studies, this stocktake does not rely on stated intentions of M&E but requires evidence such as monitoring and evaluation reports. The extent of NAP M&E involvement globally and countries’ respective status are determined and compared to a baseline from the 2017 Adaptation Gap Report of the United Nations Environment Programme. Results show a 40% increase in the number of countries that are developing or using NAP M&E systems and almost a doubling of published NAP evaluations. However, over 60% of countries that adopted a NAP do not systematically assess its implementation, leaving a critical gap in understanding the impacts of NAPs. These findings support calls for greater attention to the quality of adaptation planning and for assessing its implementation and effectiveness.

On the development of a regional climate change adaptation plan: Integrating model-assisted projections and stakeholders' perceptions

Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation.

A Global Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation in Marine Protected Area Management Plans

Marine protected area (MPA) efficacy is increasingly challenged by climate change. Experts have identified clear climate change adaptation principles that MPA practitioners can incorporate into MPA management; however, adoption of these principles in MPA management remains largely unquantified. We conducted a text analysis of 647 English-language MPA management plans to assess the frequency with which they included climate change-related terms and terms pertaining to ecological, physical, and sociological components of an MPA system that may be impacted by climate change. Next, we manually searched 223 management plans to quantify the plans’ climate change robustness, which we defined as the degree of incorporation of common climate change adaptation principles. We found that climate change is inadequately considered in MPA management plans. Of all plans published since 2010, only 57% contained at least one of the climate change-related terms, “climate change,” “global warming,” “extreme events,” “natural variability,” or “climate variability.” The mean climate change robustness index of climate-considering management plans was 10.9 or 39% of a total possible score of 28. The United States was the only region that had plans with climate robustness indices of 20 or greater. By contrast, Canada lags behind other temperate jurisdictions in incorporating climate change adaptation analysis, planning, and monitoring into MPA management, with a mean climate change robustness index of 6.8. Climate change robustness scores have generally improved over time within the most common MPA designations in Oceania, the United Kingdom, and the United States, though the opposite is true in Canada. Our results highlight the urgent need for practitioners to incorporate climate change adaptation into MPA management in accordance with well-researched frameworks.

Global Hotspots for Future Absolute Temperature Extremes From CMIP6 Models

AbstractTwo questions motivated this study: (a) Are global land regions exposed to future changes in absolute temperature extremes? (b) And to which degree? To answer these questions, we projected the trend in four indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), through the 21st century. Observational (HadEX3) and reanalyses (ERA5, JRA‐55, NCEP‐R‐1, and NCEP‐R‐2) datasets were used to validate and correct the bias in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. CMIP6 models were then used to evaluate the changes globally and in 44 reference regions under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. Globally, the analysis showed that, under SSP5‐8.5, TXx and TNx would increase by 0.07°C/year, and TXn (TNn) would increase by 0.09 (0.08)°C/year, during the middle of the 21st century (2021–2050), compared with the reference period (1981–2010). These trends are larger during the end of the 21st century (2071–2100). The analysis also showed that all land reference regions are projected to indices growth up to 3.5°C in TXx; 2.8°C in TNx; 4.5°C in TXn; and 4°C in TNn, during the mid‐21st century under SSP5‐8.5. The latter growth in indices increased by 211% for TXx, 237% for TNx, 242% for TXn, and 300% for TNn during the end‐21st century. The global hotspots affected by absolute temperature extremes are in the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Iceland, Central Asia, Tibetan Plateau, Russian Arctic, Siberia, Mediterranean, Sahara, and Arabian Peninsula. The study's findings help understand the evolution of climate extremes, which is essential for climate change mitigation and adaptation plans.

Future Changes in the Indian Ocean Walker Circulation and Links to Kenyan Rainfall

AbstractEast Africa is vulnerable to hydroclimatic variability and change, and therefore reliable projections of future rainfall are important for climate change adaptation planning. However, the region's climate is affected by complex multi‐scalar processes and poorly represented in climate models, leading to uncertainty surrounding rainfall change. The importance of circulation features in controlling long‐term rainfall variability provides an opportunity to constrain projections. We use a process‐based climate model evaluation methodology to demonstrate links between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) rainfall biases over Kenya and circulation biases in the Indian Ocean Walker Circulation (IOWC). During both the long and short rains, models with wet biases in historical runs continue to be wet in future. Wet future projections are associated with enhanced easterly winds over the equatorial Indian Ocean, as well as decreasing vertical velocity over Kenya and increasing vertical velocity over the Maritime Continent. We demonstrate that models with a simulated IOWC which is close to reanalysis in historical runs project different changes to Kenyan rainfall than those which do not. In particular, the projected rainfall increase during the long rains is confined to a single month (April) in these models. We call for a renewed focus on the Walker Circulation as a way to constrain uncertain rainfall projections elsewhere in the tropics.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought Variability in Myanmar Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Its Impact on Crop Production

Drought research is an important aspect of drought disaster mitigation and adaptation. For this purpose, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to investigate the spatial-temporal pattern of drought and its impact on crop production. Using monthly precipitation (Precip) and temperature (Temp) data from 1986–2015 for 39 weather stations, the drought index was obtained for the time scale of 3, 6, and 12 months. The Mann–Kendall test was used to determine trends and rates of change. Precip and Temp anomalies were investigated using the regression analysis and compared with the drought index. The link between drought with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies using the Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was explored. Results showed a non-uniform spatial pattern of dryness and wetness which varied across Myanmar agro-ecological zones and under different time scales. Generally, results showed an increasing trend for the SPEI in the three-time scales, signifying a high tendency of decreased drought from 1986–2015. The fluctuations in dryness/wetness might linked to reduction crop production between 1986–1999 and 2005, 2008, 2010, 2013 cropping years. Results show relationship between main crops production and climate (teleconnection) factors. However, the low correlation values (i.e., <0.49) indicate the extent of the relationship within the natural variability. However, readers are urged to interpret this result cautiously as reductions in crop production may also be affected by other factors. We have demonstrated droughts evolution and trends using weather stations, thus providing useful information to aid policymakers in developing spatially relevant climate change adaptation and mitigation management plans for Myanmar.

Sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau of China.

ContextClimate change has imposed tremendous impacts on ecosystem services. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts mainly focused on a basin or larger scale, or used limited time periods that largely ignore observations of long-term trends at a fine resolution, thereby affecting the recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services.ObjectivesThis study conducts a detailed and spatially explicit recognition of climate change’s effect on ecosystem services and provides an intuitive map for decision-making and climate change adaptation planning.MethodsWe used long-term time series of ecosystem service assessments and various future climate scenarios to quantify the sensitivity and future exposure of ecosystem services to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau.ResultsCarbon sequestration (CS) and habitat quality experience significant growth, while water retention did not show any trend. Sensitivity patterns of these ecosystem services vary largely. For CS, more than half of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, even though the degree of sensitivity is not high. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes, and high levels of future climate change increase the intensity of exposure.ConclusionsThis study illustrates the complex spatial association between ecosystem services and climatic drivers, and these findings can help optimize local response strategies in the context of global warming. For example, the existing protected areas have notable conservation gaps for disturbance of future climate change on ecosystem services, especially in the southeastern part of the study area.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-021-01320-9.

Climate Change Adaptation Plan from Environmental Health approach for Antioquia (Colombia) in 2021

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Recognizing the threats associated with climate change and variability, the department of Antioquia declared a Climate Emergency in accordance with the actions promoted by the Agreement of Paris (COP21).One of the actions enacted on this declaration is the formulation of the Climate Change Adaptation Plan from the Environmental Health Component for the department of Antioquia. This Plan is aimed at identifying and promoting adaptation and resilience actions according to the needs identified for each subregion of the department, in order to reduce and anticipate the health effects that are related to climate change and variability. METHODS: A mixed qualitative and quantitative research design is conceived to carry on a diagnosis of the territory, the identification of problems and needs, prioritization and formulation of adaptation and resilience actions from environmental health to face climate change and variability. RESULTS:The analysis carried out allowed to make an approximation to the recognition of the effects of climate change and variability on the health of the population, hydro-meteorological threats; the need to establish environmental health as an important approach to generate an Intersectoral and Interinstitutional articulation, through capacities strengthening and thematic dialogues with the actors in the territory. A methodological input for the analysis of vulnerability in health to climate change and variability was implemented, that allows identifying strengths and needs in order to formulate strategies that reduce vulnerability according to local reality. CONCLUSIONS:Faced with the needs identified for the department of Antioquia from Environmental Health and the recognition of the effects generated by climate change and variability and associated hydrometeorological threats, it is intended to foster the formulation and implementation of priority measures and actions for adaptation to climate change from environmental health in the Municipal Health Plans, to improve the current conditions of the health system for the well-being of the population. KEYWORDS: Climate, Policy and practice, Community outreach, Science communication, Mixtures analysis