Abstract
Marine protected area (MPA) efficacy is increasingly challenged by climate change. Experts have identified clear climate change adaptation principles that MPA practitioners can incorporate into MPA management; however, adoption of these principles in MPA management remains largely unquantified. We conducted a text analysis of 647 English-language MPA management plans to assess the frequency with which they included climate change-related terms and terms pertaining to ecological, physical, and sociological components of an MPA system that may be impacted by climate change. Next, we manually searched 223 management plans to quantify the plans’ climate change robustness, which we defined as the degree of incorporation of common climate change adaptation principles. We found that climate change is inadequately considered in MPA management plans. Of all plans published since 2010, only 57% contained at least one of the climate change-related terms, “climate change,” “global warming,” “extreme events,” “natural variability,” or “climate variability.” The mean climate change robustness index of climate-considering management plans was 10.9 or 39% of a total possible score of 28. The United States was the only region that had plans with climate robustness indices of 20 or greater. By contrast, Canada lags behind other temperate jurisdictions in incorporating climate change adaptation analysis, planning, and monitoring into MPA management, with a mean climate change robustness index of 6.8. Climate change robustness scores have generally improved over time within the most common MPA designations in Oceania, the United Kingdom, and the United States, though the opposite is true in Canada. Our results highlight the urgent need for practitioners to incorporate climate change adaptation into MPA management in accordance with well-researched frameworks.
Highlights
Marine species and habitats are under threat from many local and global stressors, including exploitation, coastal development, pollution, invasive species, shipping, underwater noise, and disease (Dulvy et al, 2003; Crain et al, 2009; Avila et al, 2018)
While we are aware that Marine protected area (MPA) monitoring plans generally contain more in-depth information on the precise monitoring protocols that will be followed, we focused our text analysis on MPA management plans because many
With an increased Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) target to protect 30% of coastal and marine areas by 2030 and climate change effects being observed in marine ecosystems and felt by coastal communities across the globe, we echo that now is the time to ensure that MPA management is as robust as possible to climate change impacts
Summary
Marine species and habitats are under threat from many local and global stressors, including exploitation, coastal development, pollution, invasive species, shipping, underwater noise, and disease (Dulvy et al, 2003; Crain et al, 2009; Avila et al, 2018). Climate change is driving ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, increasing the frequency and magnitude of coastal storms, and changing ocean circulation patterns (Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Doney et al, 2012; Poloczanska et al, 2016; Knutson et al, 2021). These changes are in turn altering the distribution, phenology, abundance, size, and physiology of marine species, which will have significant impacts on ecosystems and human coastal communities (Pecl et al, 2017; Bindoff et al, 2019; English et al, 2021). Climate change is contributing to population declines even in MPAs and necessitating the protection of species and habitats not just where they are currently located and where they will be (Diamond et al, 2017)
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