Climate Change Adaptation Planning Research Articles

Non-linear response of glacier melting to Holocene warming in Svalbard recorded by sedimentary iron (oxyhydr)oxides

The recent acceleration of ice-sheet loss with its direct impact on sea-level rise and coastal ecosystems is of major environmental and societal concern. However, the effect of atmospheric temperature increases on long-term glacier retreat remains poorly defined due to limited historical observations and uncertainties in numerical ice-sheet models, which challenges climate change adaptation planning. Here, we present a novel approach for investigating the time-transgressive response of Arctic glaciers since the last deglaciation, using glacially-derived Fe-(oxyhydr)oxide layers preserved in glacimarine sediments from a large fjord system in Svalbard. Glacial weathering releases large amounts of Fe, resulting in the deposition of Fe-(oxyhydr)oxide particulates in nearby marine sediments, which can serve as fossil indicators of past glacial melting events. Our results indicate that Svalbard glaciers retreated at a rate of 18 to 41 m/yr between 16.3 and 10.8 kyr BP, synchronously with the progressive rise in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures. From 10.8 kyr BP, glacier retreat markedly accelerated (up to ∼116 m/yr) when regional atmospheric temperatures exceeded modern values. Coupled with field observations, this finding directly supports a non-linear response of glacial melting to summer air temperature increases. In addition to suggesting that ice-sheet loss and sea-level rise may further accelerate in the near future, this study paves the way for the use of sedimentary Fe-(oxyhydr)oxide layers in subarctic environments for reconstructing past glacial dynamics.

Incorporating Indigenous voices in regional climate change adaptation: opportunities and challenges in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

As the impacts of climate change increasingly and disproportionately affect indigenous peoples, equitable approaches to regional climate change adaptation must center the voices, needs, and priorities of Indigenous communities. Although the tribal climate change principles identify actionable recommendations to address the unique needs of Indigenous peoples in the contexts of climate change adaptation efforts undertaken at the Federal level in the United States (U.S.), there has yet to be exploration of how such principles might be applied at the regional level. Through semi-structured qualitative interviews with 18 representatives from inter-Tribal organizations and non-Tribal organizations engaged in regional climate adaptation in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, this research sought to describe challenges faced by, and opportunities available to, non-Tribal entities when engaging with Tribes on regional climate adaptation initiatives. All respondents reported high levels of motivation to work with Tribes on climate adaptation and identified several perceived benefits of integrating Tribal partnerships and indigenous ways of knowing into regional climate adaptation initiatives. Respondents underscored the need for strong, trusted relationships that respect the sovereignty and priorities of Tribal nations to guide engagement. However, non-Tribal organizations’ own capacity constraints, perceived Tribal capacity constraints, and institutional cultures rooted in colonialism and structural racism were discussed as obstacles to meaningful engagement. As such, we identify an urgent need to prioritize sustained investments in both Tribal and non-Tribal actors’ partnership capacities and climate change adaptation capabilities to place Indigenous voices and needs at the forefront of regional climate change adaptation planning and implementation.

The Urban Public Space between Land and Sea: The Case of Quarteira, Portugal

Among the European coastal territories most vulnerable to the effects of mean sea level rise, such as flooding and erosion phenomena, are the 943 km of the Portuguese coastline where approximately 70 per cent of the population lives (Bigotte et al, 2014), a percentage that rises to around 80 per cent in the summer months, due to tourism (Andrade et al, 2002), especially in the Algarve region (southern Portugal). The case study of this research is the urban public space in the coastal city of Quarteira, which is particularly vulnerable. This space between the land and the sea has been recently framed in the inter-municipal climate change adaptation plan PIAAC-AMAL (Plano Intermunicipal de Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas do Algarve). The aim of the article is to explore the natural and anthropogenic process of formation and transformation of the urban space between the land and sea that occurred over time, up to the definition of the seashore street. Interpretative drawing is used as a methodology to understand the form of the public space. This is considered the first step for designing the public space between the land and the sea that deals both with the effects of climate change and the seasonal cycles of summer tourism. Through this analysis, it is argued that the understanding of the form (morphological characteristics) of this continuous space between land and sea is fundamental for consistent and robust adaptation design.

Evaluating the comprehensiveness of municipal climate change adaptation plans in Ontario, Canada

Evaluating the comprehensiveness of municipal climate change adaptation plans in Ontario, Canada

Reimagining climate change research and policy from the Australian adaptation impasse

Despite two decades of investment in climate change adaptation knowledge, planning and policy, the Australian policy and scientific community is now at an adaptation impasse, with effective, equitable and timely adaptation rare and negative impacts proliferating as a result. Drawing on Australia as an illustrative and globally relevant case study, we describe and diagnose the adaptation impasse using a novel four-part heuristic – Adaptation as Spectre, Signal, Social and Systems – to characterise adaptation knowledge and action and their evolution over time. We examine the relationship between these adaptation types and argue that an underlying political economy at odds with the demands of adapting to climate change is generating the adaptation impasse. We suggest that to overcome the impasse we need to transform adaptation into a science and practice that is imaginative, pluralist, and caring.

Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Ecosystem Service Assessments in Spatial and Sectoral Planning

In this paper, we critically reflect on the ability of spatial and sectoral planning approaches to deal with regional climate change, especially sea level rise, and analyze the potential of ecosystem service assessments in regional coastal climate change adaptation planning. We present two concrete but contrasting case studies that focus on coastal realignment and wetland restoration as well as seaside tourism and resort development on the German Baltic Sea coast. The ecosystem service assessments compare past, present and potential future local development scenarios. Complementary, we apply the InVest and the Matrix ecosystem service assessment approaches. Despite some shortcomings, the proactive German hierarchical planning system seems suitable to deal with climate change and provide a framework for adaptation measures in coastal zones. It largely prevents a shift of climate change risks between municipalities and stakeholders. Comparative ecosystem service assessments seem well suited to play a role in the planning process by raising awareness about problems, possible solutions and consequences. On a local level, they can provide comprehensive insight into consequences of alternative measures. Our examples show that, in principle, potential future situations can be addressed with comparative ecosystem service approaches. We discuss whether the results of hypothetical future scenarios, with inherent uncertainties, might be misleading and counterproductive.

Increasing extreme flood risk under future climate change scenarios in South Korea

The endeavor to reduce the multiple risks of climate extremes takes the future of civil society. Many global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) have been developed to project the future changing climate. To quantitatively evaluate future flood risks, the results of the current hydrological model based on simulated data from the climate model should be analyzed. This paper focuses the connection of technological and policy aspects for the future flood management in South Korea. Accordingly, this study assesses the changes in flood quantiles based on the two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The HadGEM3-RA regional climate model is used to predict future changes in extreme rainfall events, and the regional quantile delta mapping (RQDM) method is adopted to correct for any inherent bias in the climate models. The climate change scenario is divided into the following four periods: S0 (1976–2005), S1 (2011–2040), S2 (2041–2070), and S3 (2071–2100). A regional frequency analysis (RFA) is applied to estimate the rainfall quantiles as input data in rainfall-runoff model. The flood quantiles are simulated using the HEC-1 (rainfall-runoff) model for historical and future periods, and the variations in the flood quantiles are calculated quantitatively for the five major river basins (Hangang, HAN; Nakdonggang, NAK; Geumgang, GUM; Seomjingang, SJG; Yeongsangang, YSG) in South Korea. As a result, it is found that the highest flood risk can occur in the YSG basin, and the YSG basin should be considered the most urgent and important river basin for climate change adaptation plans compared with other major basins in South Korea.

Arctic warming contributes to increase in Northeast Pacific marine heatwave days over the past decades

The frequency and duration of marine heatwaves have been increasing with ocean warming due to climate change. In particular, the Northeast Pacific has experienced intense and extensive marine heatwaves since the late 1990s – characteristically called “the Blob”. Here, an investigation of satellite-derived and reanalysis data supported by idealized coupled model experiments show that Arctic warming plays an important role in the increase in Northeast Pacific marine heatwave days during boreal summers. Strong Arctic warming has acted to change the atmospheric circulation pattern over the Northeast Pacific and reduce the low-level cloud fraction from late spring to early summer. We show that the enhancement of solar radiative heat fluxes and reduced latent heat loss over a relatively large area has favored an increase in sea surface temperatures and marine heatwave days. An idealized model experiment performed here, designed to isolate the impact of Arctic warming, supports this hypothesis. The projected changes of Arctic climate on the occurrence of marine heatwaves should be considered in climate change adaptation and mitigation plans.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Tanzania’s City’s Master Plans. A Critical Review

Climate change and its impacts continue to affect urban areas globally. Apparently, despite the existence of international, regional, and national climate change development policies, city authorities in low and middle-income countries are daunting about the consideration of climate change in their undertakings. This paper explores mainstreaming climate change adaptation planning in the city's master plans of low and middle incomes developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, the paper assesses the extent of the integration of climate change adaptation planning in the city's development processes. Results of the study indicate that city authorities have not adequately considered climate change in their planning process because of multiple factors including institutional, financial, and technical capacity which seem to jeopardize long-term resilience to climate change

Climate change impacts on immovable cultural heritage in polar regions: A systematic bibliometric review

AbstractOver the past decade, research on the impacts of climate change on immovable cultural heritage (ICH) in the polar regions (Arctic and Antarctica) has slowly increased. This article offers a systematic review and synthesis of the publications about climate change impacts on the diverse ICH and climate change adaptation in the polar regions. Gray literature was not included in the study. Arctic countries like Sweden, Finland, Iceland, and Russia, and their associated research organizations, are under‐represented in this literature when compared with the USA, Canada, Denmark, and Norway. More than half of the analyzed literature is published in the last 3 years (2019, 2020, and 2021) with a focus on coastal erosion and ICH degradation (cryospheric hazards). ICH is at risk from biological degradation, coastal erosion, debris flow, and thaw slumping. Nearly half of the studies report on the need for climate change adaptation planning and implementation for ICH. This study shows that advances in research on climate change impacts and adaptation responses are needed to improve decision‐ and policy‐maker capacity to support effective adaptation policies and to contribute to the achievement of SDGs in polar regions. The polar regions' vulnerable landscapes and ICH sites can be used to communicate a larger message about the climate change challenges and adaptation measures.This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies Climate and Development > Sustainability and Human Well‐Being

Development of Environmental Action Plans for Adaptation to Climate Change: A Perspective of Air Quality Management

The impacts of climate change on air quality (tropospheric ozone pollution, particulate matter pollution, atmospheric deposition effect, and extreme weather events) greatly threaten most creatures on the earth who need to breathe fresh and non-toxic air. To respond to the impacts of climate change concerning air, many countries have proposed corresponding adaptation plans to reduce these impacts. In this study, a Climate Change Adaptation Plan concerning Air (CCAP-Air) is proposed based on the summary of policies and strategies in developed countries (United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and Australia), where five main strategies were suggested, including integrating the impacts of climate change on air quality into legislation, developing models to simulate the impacts of climate change on air quality, incorporating nature-based solutions into air quality management, considering AIoT (Artificial Intelligence Internet of Things) into climate change monitoring and governance, and establishing green finance system for tackling climate change. The CCAP-Air proposed in the current work provides insights for countries and regions to solve climate change challenges with respect to air quality management.

Integrating the Local and Indigenous Knowledge (LiNK) of Barangays Dolo and Manzana in Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation Planning

Integrating the Local and Indigenous Knowledge (LiNK) of Barangays Dolo and Manzana in Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation Planning

Geographic Analysis of the Vulnerability of U.S. Lakes to Cyanobacterial Blooms under Future Climate

Abstract Cyanobacteria blooms are an increasing concern in U.S. freshwaters. Such blooms can produce nuisance conditions, deplete oxygen, and alter the food chain, and in some cases they may produce potent toxins, although many factors may modulate the relationships between biomass and toxin production. Cyanobacterial blooms are in turn associated with nutrient enrichment and warm water temperatures. Climate change is expected to increase water temperatures and, in many areas, surface runoff that can transport nutrient loads to lakes. While some progress has been made in short-term prediction of cyanobacterial bloom and toxin risk, the long-term projections of which lakes will become more vulnerable to such events as a result of climate change is less clear because of the complex interaction of multiple factors that affect bloom probability. We address this question by reviewing the literature to identify risk factors that increase lake vulnerability to cyanobacterial blooms and evaluating how climate change may alter these factors across the sample of conterminous U.S. lakes contained in the 2007 National Lakes Assessment. Results provide a national-scale assessment of where and in which types of lakes climate change will likely increase the overall risk of cyanobacterial blooms, rather than finer-scale prediction of expected cyanobacterial and toxin levels in individual lakes. This information can be used to guide climate change adaptation planning, including monitoring and management efforts to minimize the effects of increased cyanobacterial prevalence. Significance Statement Cyanobacteria blooms and associated algal toxins are an increasing problem in U.S. freshwater lakes and reservoirs. Climate change may further increase bloom frequency and severity. We survey the literature on relationships between bloom formation and climate. These relationships are combined with projections of future climate and lake response to develop indices of where and in what types of lakes such blooms are most likely to increase relative to current conditions. The results can help to focus monitoring and management measures to mitigate potential impacts on human health, wildlife, and aquatic biota.

Commercial fisher perceptions illuminate a need for social justice considerations in navigating climate change impacts on fisheries systems

Climate change will amplify stress on marine systems already challenged by conflicts and inequities relating to fisheries access, management decisions, and ocean uses across sectors. Understanding how those most connected to fisheries perceive the risks associated with climate change is critical to developing effective responses and establishing management priorities. Adaptation planning efforts may be hindered by perceptions of unequal or unfair distribution of resources and the processes in place to manage them. In contrast, adaptation planning that is more inclusive, transparent, and addresses social dimensions and perceptions of fisheries is more likely to garner support from fishers and fishing communities broadly. We elicited fisher perceptions of climate change impacts on fisheries, and responses to these impacts, through an online survey of commercial fishers in Canada’s Pacific region. The survey highlights substantial concern for climate change, the impacts it will have on fishers’ livelihoods and well-being, and some of the key challenges that may interfere with the ability of fishers and fisheries management to adapt. We frame the findings of the survey drawing from concepts of social justice, focusing on distributive and procedural justice, as necessary considerations, and context for climate change adaptation planning. Developing plans and processes to respond to climate change impacts on fisheries requires not only understanding ecological impacts and challenges, but also the social and institutional considerations that could help or hinder efforts to respond effectively and equitably to a changing ocean.

Implementing Climate Change Adaptation in Territory Spatial Planning Systems: Challenges and Approaches Based on Practices in Guiyang.

Integrating climate change adaptation into spatial planning has become a global goal in the field of spatial planning. Despite the various relevant policies proposed by governments, there is still a lack of common practice in the field of climate change research and territory spatial planning preparation and research in China. In this study, climate change adaptation planning in the territory spatial planning system (TSPS), based upon risk assessment, is explored using downscaled climate change prediction data (derived from CMIP5) and prefectural master territory spatial planning (MTSP) data from Guiyang. The study found that such practices, despite their feasibility, still face systemic challenges given the current planning system in China, e.g., the deficiency of climate change impact data and analyses, the absence of essential planning tools, and the unsuitability of the current planning system for the integration of adaptation actions. We propose corresponding approaches based on our empirical planning experience and discuss prospects for relevant research and planning.

Non basta dire green. Le politiche climatiche alla prova della realtà in Etiopia

The article aims to analyse Ethiopia’s climate policies and the country’s positioning in international forums by exploring the narratives constructed with climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and plans since the 1992 Rio Declarations to the launch of the 2019 Green Legacy campaigns. But in the face of diligence in the production of such policies by FDRE governments, at the local level, as in the four kebele in Northern and Southern Ethiopia researched ethnographically, there is no echo of longstanding climate policy. In the name of climate change, new labels have been given to old projects to support farmers in their daily lives. Indeed, this article intends to show how those plans and strategies are produced to remain as such and not become practices, and to intercept the acclaim and economic support of international climate governance.

Integrating public health in European climate change adaptation policy and planning

ABSTRACT The study assesses the extent to which public health is integrated into European national and urban climate change adaptation policy and planning. We analyse national adaptation documents from the 27 European Union member states and interview city-level experts (n = 17) on the integration of three categories of adaptation efforts: general efforts to minimize health impacts related to climate change, targeted efforts to enhance resilience in health systems, and supportive efforts to foster the potential of the first two categories. At a national level, general efforts to address vector-borne diseases and heat-related illness are covered comprehensively, whereas efforts addressing several climate-related health risks are neglected (e.g. water-borne diseases, injuries from extreme weather and cardiopulmonary health) or overlooked (e.g. malnutrition and mental health). Targeted efforts to inform policy decisions, such as carrying out research, risk monitoring and assessments, are often described in detail, but efforts to manage day-to-day health care delivery and emergency situations receive little attention. At the urban level, health issues receive less attention in climate adaptation policy and planning. If health topics are included, they are often described as indirect benefits of adaptation efforts in other sectors and not perceived as the priority of the involved authorities. This effectively means that general and targeted efforts are the responsibility of other sectoral departments, while supportive efforts are the responsibility of the national government or external organizations. As a result, at an urban level, climate-related health system adaptation is not a policy aim in its own right, and many potentially high health risks are being ignored. In order for health risks to be better integrated into adaptation policy and planning, it is critical to interconnect national and urban levels, reduce sectoral thinking and welcome external expertize and facilitate large-scale data collection and sharing of health and climate indicators. Key policy insights We recommend focussing on cooperatively drafting strategies for integrating health issues into climate policy and planning with stakeholders at the national and urban levels, in different policy sectors and in society. Policy planners can build on the strengths of adaptation documents from other countries or cities and take note of any weaknesses. We advocate to foster co-benefits for health and climate action of various adaptation measures (e.g. by promoting active mobility and urban greenery, health impacts related to heat, (mental and physical) stress and air pollution are reduced). Large-scale data collection and sharing of health and climate indicators should be facilitated to support learning and pro-active decision-making.

Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability

Projected changes of future precipitation extremes exhibit substantial uncertainties among climate models, posing grand challenges to climate actions and adaptation planning. Practical methods for narrowing the projection uncertainty remain elusive. Here, using large model ensembles, we show that the uncertainty in projections of future extratropical extreme precipitation is significantly correlated with the model representations of present-day precipitation variability. Models with weaker present-day precipitation variability tend to project larger increases in extreme precipitation occurrences under a given global warming increment. This relationship can be explained statistically using idealized distributions for precipitation. This emergent relationship provides a powerful constraint on future projections of extreme precipitation from observed present-day precipitation variability, which reduces projection uncertainty by 20–40% over extratropical regions. Because of the widespread impacts of extreme precipitation, this has not only provided useful insights into understanding uncertainties in current model projections, but is also expected to bring potential socio-economic benefits in climate change adaptation planning.

Climate change adaptation policy and planning for cultural heritage in low- and middle-income countries

Climate change threatens archaeological sites and cultural landscapes globally. While to date, awareness and action around cultural heritage and climate change adaptation planning has focused on Europe and North America, in this article, the authors address adaptation policy and measures for heritage sites in low- and middle-income countries. Using a review of national adaptation plans, expert survey and five case studies, results show the varied climate change adaptation responses across four continents, their strengths and weaknesses, and the barriers to be addressed to ensure better integration of cultural heritage in climate change adaptation planning.

State agencies and researchers engaging with indigenous communities on climate change adaptation planning: A systematic review

This systematic review centres planning, policy and/or strategic developments and implementation of climate change adaptation with Indigenous groups in Australia, Pacific Islands, Canada and the United States. We used PRISMA protocols to search five databases. The search was organised around three core areas: Indigenous people groups, climate change strategic planning, and Indigenous knowledge and active participation. A total of 6,338 articles from five databases were identified. Records were screened by title and abstract, leaving 87 articles that were assessed by full text. A total of 22 studies were included. The He Pikinga Waiora Implementation Framework was used as a matrix to analyse included articles. While studies included Indigenous groups in their research, most did not score highly for active inclusion of Indigenous knowledge, integrated knowledge translation or systems change. In general, studies had mediocre processes of inclusion that resulted in average responses and modest influence in decision-making forums